Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Barry12]

please,

 

[Summer Sun]

t216 hasn't updated on ECM tonight but t240 shows a fairly deep low heading our way

 

[Barry12]

The biggest difference with the ECM from the GFS is that the low to the south moves East into Europe instead of North into the UK.

 

 

ECM

 

 

 

 

GFS

 

Edited June 1, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

Lots of fine and warm sunny weather to enjoy on tonight's Ecm 12z operational run, tomorrow, monday & tuesday look pleasantly warm with long sunny spells for many areas but rather chilly nights, the midweek period looks more like sunshine but with a higher risk of showers and then later in the week and next weekend looks more settled again as a strong ridge over scotland eases further south into england and wales, the run ends unsettled but nothing to be concerned about at this stage, all in all, a good run considering the tripe that we had through most of spring, enjoy the sun.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday June 1st 2013.All models continue to show a mostly settled week to come with variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain largely in the range of 15C-22C North to South through the afternoons. As High pressure crosses the UK and then moves further North away from the UK mainland later next week then the risk of showers increase as pressure falls somewhat at least for a time.GFS brings showers at times from as early as midweek with nowhere immune but many places may miss them and stay dry. This trend continues towards the weekend and beyond as Low pressure moves it's way North from France with thundery rain becoming more widespread in the South. Later in FI a more Atlantic based pattern sets up with fronts in the flow bringing occasional rain more likely to Northern areas by then with temperatures close to average.The GFS Ensembles show a largely dry week to come before more unsettled conditions are shown in the South while the North holds on to drier conditions rather longer. Temperatures look sustained at levels close to or just above average. The operational run was not well supported in it's Atlantic based finale.The Jet Stream shows a very weak and ill defined flow over the coming week before it trends to drift to the South of the UK at the end of the reliable part of the run.UKMO closes it's run with High pressure re-establishing itself from Scandinavia over Scotland following a slightly showery interlude midweek. the weather looks set fair with plenty of dry and fine weather with sunny spells and temperatures on the right side of average for many, especially in the west and away from Eastern Coasts which could turn rather cool and misty.GEM tonight also shows slack pressure from the middle of the week with the risk of scattered showers before High pressure re-establishes this time from the Azores stretching across the UK and Scandinavia by the end of the run with a return to fine and warm conditions with sunny spells for many with any risk of showers held down over France.NAVGEM also shows the risk of showers midweek before the risk diminishes again as slack pressure patterns continue through to the end of the run. Temperatures will remain close to average with the warmest conditions naturally in the sunshine which would be scattered about between cloudier spells.ECM tonight shows slack pressure midweek with the risk of showers greatest then and probably in the North. Later pressure recovers briefly before the Atlantic makes a full blooded attack from the West by Day 10.In Summary a very confusing set of output tonight and one which I'm not going to dwell on tonight. In brief it looks like relatively fine conditions for a week from now with the chance of a showery interlude for a few midweek. Longer term complex pressure patterns mean almost anything could happen and I don't think any model has any sort of handle in what is likely to occur the week after next yet.

[Barry12]

Lots of fine and warm sunny weather to enjoy on tonight's Ecm 12z operational run, tomorrow, monday & tuesday look pleasantly warm with long sunny spells for many areas but rather chilly nights, the midweek period looks more like sunshine but with a higher risk of showers and then later in the week and next weekend looks more settled again as a strong ridge over scotland eases further south into england and wales, the run ends unsettled but nothing to be concerned about at this stage, all in all, a good run considering the tripe that we had through most of spring, enjoy the sun.

 

The movement of that low to the south is crucial, if like the ECM it moves into Europe then a warmer and drier outlook can be sustained, there will still be some showers but it is mostly dry. If it moves North like the GFS then it will be a lot cooler and unsettled. The low forming to the south of Greenland develops at +192 so there is a high chance it will be gone on the 00z.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Barry95

[Barry12]

Can't believe how good the GEM is;

 

[Frosty.]

The movement of that low to the south is crucial, if like the ECM it moves into Europe then a warmer and drier outlook can be sustained, there will still be some showers but it is mostly dry. If it moves North like the GFS then it will be a lot cooler and unsettled. The low forming to the south of Greenland develops at +192 so there is a high chance it will be gone on the 00z.

Yes I agree, the ecm 12z tonight is mostly good with just a showery blip on wed/thurs but the very nature of showers means many would miss them anyway and stay fine and warm, lots of positives to take from the 12z op runs again tonight, the Gem 12z being the pick of the bunch.

[049balt]

 

 

(Sorry to be a little off topic with the first post Phil - just a few answers to some of the queries from the previous thread!)

 

Hi Barry,

 

No offence taken, this is a discussion forum and this is what it's all about.

 

I think Tamara covered it pretty well above really. The only addition to make is that signal for the upcoming settled spell was there all the way back in late March when I first began compiling the preliminary summer forecast for another website, and indeed this was mentioned within that forecast too. So for me, this upcoming spell is the first major piece of verification for the forecast, aside from the overall cooler and unsettled theme projected for May. This is beginning to suggest to me that the analogue QBO and ENSO years selected are currently providing us with helpful hints towards the broad-scale (longwave) setup well in advance, and hopefully this helps to answer why I am now offering (with slightly more confidence) insights into the other strong signals derived from the forecast.

 

The next such strong signal for a decent settled spell (i.e. more than 2-3 days in duration) is during mid July.

 

The insight into the potential for a decent October, again as Tamara alludes to, should of course be taken with a pinch of salt being so far away. The technique I have used will have to be re-visited in a couple of months time to see whether my projections for the QBO and ENSO indexes are still following the same pattern as this summer - if they are, then the projection for October will have higher confidence. If not, then I will need to re-visit the analogue years to produce new composites for the autumn.

 

I completely understand, given the track record of previous such forecasts from various organisations, that there is, and will likely remain, a lot of skepticism surrounding LRF's - i'm in the same boat, I was sceptical even of my own forecast, and remain so until I see further verification. However, hopefully the initial hit with the upcoming settled spell helps to add a little confidence to the forecast. And if I end up being incorrect, well then let's all hope its for the right reasons - i.e. unbroken sunshine all summer long!

 

Also, just to answer 049balt's question quickly - i'm not expecting anywhere near the rainfall totals seen last year in the UK, with values likely to finish around the seasonal average. By way of comparison, here is the rainfall anomaly from last summer:

 

precipanom2012.png

 

And here is the projection for this summer based upon the composite years:

 

multiprecipanom2013.png

 

Anyway, I had best get back on topic before I get myself in trouble!

 

Just as a quick update - the 0z Glasgow ensembles, rather similar to yesterdays 12z in terms of the increasing precip. signal beyond the 10th:

 

Screen Shot 2013-06-01 at 15.05.22.png

 

So unfortunately the medium range signal continues to be a less settled and slightly cooler one once again, much in line with the most recent ECM32 run with a cooler outlook beyond the first 10 days of June:

 

Screen Shot 2013-06-01 at 15.06.59.png

 

SK

Thanks for that very important reply SK. I have a great interest in long range forecasting and hope you continue posting your ideas.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Depends what you mean by warm and settled, if you mean temps high teens/low 20s and dry bright weather then the next week will deliver, at least for most. Getting a heatwave is a another story, but I have not really seen that many posts saying that.

 

There are very few conditions that give wall to wall sunshine to the UK, a moist SW flow this time of year, would mean yucky weather for us, but possibly very warm weather for the E/NE. But for us down here a High Pressure with E/NE is pretty good, with good warm sunshine especially as upper temps are quite high to the North East at the moment.

 

In short it is better having High Pressure than a trough bang on top of us circa June 2013, however you are right that there is sometimes that High Pressure can be seen as a panacea,

I must admit that my views on "warm and settled" not telling enough of the story are coloured by my many years of living near the Tyne and Wear coast.  In that area of the country, it isn't that unusual for warm settled spells with easterly winds to be generally overcast with the warmth stemming from high night-time minima, while conversely in changeable westerly and south-westerly types it sometimes ranks among the UK's sunniest regions.  I get the impression that in central and western parts of the UK "warm and settled" is more reliably associated with sunshine and high daytime maxima in spring and summer, with only rare exceptions such as the last week of August 2008.

 

I expect the above to be highly relevant to the upcoming spell of weather and I won't be surprised if, come the 10th June, many central and western parts of the country notch up sunshine aggregates close to 100 hours (about 50% above the long-term normal) while some eastern coastal spots remain short of the 20 hour mark.  The main question is whether or not the low cloud will frequently penetrate inland or whether it will readily burn back to the east coast. 

 

Tonight's ECMWF is more similar to the UKMO than the GFS which suggests to me that there is a general backtrack away from the stronger east to north-easterly flow and therefore more chance of negative maximum temperature and sunshine anomalies being largely confined to the east coast, with positive anomalies in most other areas.  The forecast synoptic evolution is still evolving though and I won't rule out further swings in either direction.  It is worth noting, incidentally, that the strength of any troughing from the south is also likely to be correlated with the strength of the easterlies and westward penetration of North Sea stratus, so the most anticyclonic/settled outcome with high pressure furthest south is also generally the most likely to have minimal low cloud.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[summer blizzard]

Stunner of a run from the GFS0z right the way through.

 

In the high resolution timeframe we get no breakdown although thunder lovers may like the charts..

 

 

 

Afterward the ridge builds again and the Atlantic backs off though interestingly we appear to be seeing a trend of a displaced Azores High ridging to the UK...

 

 

And then finally it culminates with a true heatwave and temperatures probably breaching 30C (some serious heat in Spain and France)..

 

 

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

 

 

morning all just had  a look in to fantasy world things could  get a  bit hot here in the uk  if  fantasy world right  might  be able to keep the heating off at last!!!

Edited June 2, 2013 by tinybill

[Gibby]

Good morning. A little busy this morning so a slightly shorter report than normal with the info taken from the midnight output of GFS, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM for today Sunday June 2nd 2013.All models continue to show the UK weather governed by High pressure to the SW of the UK. Over the coming days it will transit through Britain to settle just to the North of the UK. The weather through the coming week will continue to be dominated by it's presence with sunny spells by day and clear spells at night in quite light winds. In time the NW will join the rest of the UK in better conditions though conversely Northern areas in general could see the risk of a shower midweek as a disturbance runs West over Scotland.GFS then shows next weekend still set fair with warm sunny spells under a ridge of high pressure. Fronts are shown to approach NW Britain but largely weaken with no more than the risk of a shower as they move East into the higher pressure. FI shows the risk of a shower at first but High pressure re-establishes strongly over the UK with a lit of dry and sunny weather to be enjoyed. It would become very warm for most.The GFS Ensembles show uppers gradually on the rise with a spell of sustained temperatures above average. The operational was a warmer option later on but it falls in with the general trend of warmer weather for all. Precipitation amounts do increase for a time later in the run mostly from showers affecting the South.The Jet Stream shows a very weak and non-descript flow at present which largely lasts through this week. there is a tendency for it to slip to the South of the UK into the second week but it's not shown in a commanding form as yet.UKMO today shows next weekend with a weakening ridge of High pressure lying across the UK from the Atlantic with a dry and reasonably warm weekend likely for most if not all of the UK next weekend with sunny spells for most.GEM shows the ridge next weekend a little further North over Scotland with somewhat lower pressure near the South promoting a heavy shower risk here. Towards the end of it's run pressure begins to fall in slack pressure conditions and it maybe that showers become a bigger feature of the weather for more areas late in it's run.NAVGEM too keeps an open field pressure wise with light and variable winds over the UK. With an upper atmosphere showery feature caught up over the east of the UK for several days there is the risk of a shower but the vast majority is shown to enjoy largely fine and dry weather with sunny spells and light winds. Temperatures would remain just on the warm side of average for most by day.ECM this morning too keeps relatively settled weather over the UK from slack High pressure sitting over the UK next weekend. Thereafter things quickly go downhill with a deep Atlantic depression bringing wind and rain East over the UK to be followed by windy and cool NW winds and showers to end the run.In Summary today the models are quite happy to maintain High pressure in domination of the UK weather for some considerable time. The threat of showers has reduced with just a few at the end of this week for a few and perhaps near Northern Britain for a time midweek but most will stay dry, bright and warm. GFS brings us into a potentially very warm and settled spell through week 2 which although was on the top side of the member group in the ensembles was not without strong support for maintaining warmth through Week 2. ECM does spoil the party though by bringing in a potent depression after next weekend which would see an end to the good weather and a return to wind rain and showers along with cooler temperatures later. It's the second ECM run with this evolution and lets see if it's there on the 12zs tonight before being too judgemental.

[Gibby]

Good morning. A little busy this morning so a slightly shorter report than normal with the info taken from the midnight output of GFS, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM for today Sunday June 2nd 2013.All models continue to show the UK weather governed by High pressure to the SW of the UK. Over the coming days it will transit through Britain to settle just to the North of the UK. The weather through the coming week will continue to be dominated by it's presence with sunny spells by day and clear spells at night in quite light winds. In time the NW will join the rest of the UK in better conditions though conversely Northern areas in general could see the risk of a shower midweek as a disturbance runs West over Scotland.GFS then shows next weekend still set fair with warm sunny spells under a ridge of high pressure. Fronts are shown to approach NW Britain but largely weaken with no more than the risk of a shower as they move East into the higher pressure. FI shows the risk of a shower at first but High pressure re-establishes strongly over the UK with a lit of dry and sunny weather to be enjoyed. It would become very warm for most.The GFS Ensembles show uppers gradually on the rise with a spell of sustained temperatures above average. The operational was a warmer option later on but it falls in with the general trend of warmer weather for all. Precipitation amounts do increase for a time later in the run mostly from showers affecting the South.The Jet Stream shows a very weak and non-descript flow at present which largely lasts through this week. there is a tendency for it to slip to the South of the UK into the second week but it's not shown in a commanding form as yet.UKMO today shows next weekend with a weakening ridge of High pressure lying across the UK from the Atlantic with a dry and reasonably warm weekend likely for most if not all of the UK next weekend with sunny spells for most.GEM shows the ridge next weekend a little further North over Scotland with somewhat lower pressure near the South promoting a heavy shower risk here. Towards the end of it's run pressure begins to fall in slack pressure conditions and it maybe that showers become a bigger feature of the weather for more areas late in it's run.NAVGEM too keeps an open field pressure wise with light and variable winds over the UK. With an upper atmosphere showery feature caught up over the east of the UK for several days there is the risk of a shower but the vast majority is shown to enjoy largely fine and dry weather with sunny spells and light winds. Temperatures would remain just on the warm side of average for most by day.ECM this morning too keeps relatively settled weather over the UK from slack High pressure sitting over the UK next weekend. Thereafter things quickly go downhill with a deep Atlantic depression bringing wind and rain East over the UK to be followed by windy and cool NW winds and showers to end the run.In Summary today the models are quite happy to maintain High pressure in domination of the UK weather for some considerable time. The threat of showers has reduced with just a few at the end of this week for a few and perhaps near Northern Britain for a time midweek but most will stay dry, bright and warm. GFS brings us into a potentially very warm and settled spell through week 2 which although was on the top side of the member group in the ensembles was not without strong support for maintaining warmth through Week 2. ECM does spoil the party though by bringing in a potent depression after next weekend which would see an end to the good weather and a return to wind rain and showers along with cooler temperatures later. It's the second ECM run with this evolution and lets see if it's there on the 12zs tonight before being too judgemental.

[Frosty.]

The week ahead is looking very nice for most of the uk according to the 00z output this morning, high pressure will intensify over the top of the uk in the next few days before migrating further north but leaving a strong ridge across the uk, so we can all look forward to a good deal of strong sunshine and light winds with pleasantly warm temperatures in the high 60's to low 70's F from today and throughout the week ahead, there will be a few showers dotted around, mostly in the northwest but the risk seems to have diminished, looking at T+144, pretty good cross model agreement that high pressure will be in charge again, so most of us won't need the brolly but we will need the sun cream.

[AWD]

Similiar story again in the reliable as per recent days so I won't dwell on that too much. Plenty of sunshine and calm conditions with a scattering of showers around at the end of the week and into the weekend. These allowed to form because of a relaxation in SLP values at the end of the week;

Into week 2 and we have vast differences between the NWP models this morning, hence the term FI. The butt side of it is neither the GFS Op or EC Op is likely to be right at this stage. You can see at 192 hours the GFS Op makes little of the trough around the Iceland area and although still showery for some on this chart, further out into the low res part of the run sees another rise of pressure;

This leading to some warm summer temperatures around the mid - high 20's;

The GEM this morning isn't a million miles away from the GFS Op either so it should be treated as a possible outcome;

However, it is the GFS Op FI, which is about as much use as a chocolate teapot most of the time, so I wouldn't get too hung up on this scenario yet and just bide time to see what further runs and data suggest.

Which leads me onto the EC Op and a perfect example as to why NWP FI is to be taken very lightly. The EC Op goes a totally different way and sends the trough east, becoming quite a feature over and near to the UK, bringing some rather unsettled conditions into week 2;

Worth noting that this is the second run in a row to show this scenario too, so again it should be treated as a plausible outcome, but at this stage, nothing more than that.

A quick look at last nights EC ens (this mornings aren't out yet) shows a notable trend to increase PPN at the end of this week and into week 2;

So something more unsettled into week 2 favoured there. Temperatures for the spine of the country look to broadly remain around average too, some warmer days and some cooler days;

No heatwave trend there yet! The 500mb anomaky charts keep the current theme of heights to the north and a trough somewhere to the south/south west of the UK;

A similiar pattern also shown by the CPC anomaly;

A look as to why there maybe some difference of opinion between the models this morning. The GFS keen to send the MJO into phase 2;

Whereas the EC wants phase 3;

Worth noting that both these conditions are characterised by a trough of sorts. Personally I think both NWP FI outputs are out of kilter this morning, and as ever something inbetween is likely. I do think there is good evidence for something less settled into week 2, but at at this stage not as drastic as what the EC Op is showing.

As ever, further runs needed. The reliable looks well sewn out now though.

[mushymanrob]

Looking at the models for the 10th June, not one is in agreement. All to play for in the medium term imo. The Gem 12z is just that a gem of a chart.

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=216&size=2

 

aaaarrgh.. i hate that footy saying... we arent 'playing', theres bugger all we can do, we are spectators! 

 

Similiar story again in the reliable as per recent days so I won't dwell on that too much. Plenty of sunshine and calm conditions with a scattering of showers around at the end of the week and into the weekend. These allowed to form because of a relaxation in SLP values at the end of the week;

image.jpgimage.jpg

Into week 2 and we have vast differences between the NWP models this morning, hence the term FI. The butt side of it is neither the GFS Op or EC Op is likely to be right at this stage. You can see at 192 hours the GFS Op makes little of the trough around the Iceland area and although still showery for some on this chart, further out into the low res part of the run sees another rise of pressure;

image.jpg

This leading to some warm summer temperatures around the mid - high 20's;

image.jpg

The GEM this morning isn't a million miles away from the GFS Op either so it should be treated as a possible outcome;

image.jpg

However, it is the GFS Op FI, which is about as much use as a chocolate teapot most of the time, so I wouldn't get too hung up on this scenario yet and just bide time to see what further runs and data suggest.

Which leads me onto the EC Op and a perfect example as to why NWP FI is to be taken very lightly. The EC Op goes a totally different way and sends the trough east, becoming quite a feature over and near to the UK, bringing some rather unsettled conditions into week 2;

image.jpg

Worth noting that this is the second run in a row to show this scenario too, so again it should be treated as a plausible outcome, but at this stage, nothing more than that.

A quick look at last nights EC ens (this mornings aren't out yet) shows a notable trend to increase PPN at the end of this week and into week 2;

image.jpg

So something more unsettled into week 2 favoured there. Temperatures for the spine of the country look to broadly remain around average too, some warmer days and some cooler days;

image.jpg

No heatwave trend there yet! The 500mb anomaky charts keep the current theme of heights to the north and a trough somewhere to the south/south west of the UK;

image.jpg

A similiar pattern also shown by the CPC anomaly;

image.jpg

A look as to why there maybe some difference of opinion between the models this morning. The GFS keen to send the MJO into phase 2;

image.jpg

Whereas the EC wants phase 3;

image.jpg

Worth noting that both these conditions are characterised by a trough of sorts. Personally I think both NWP FI outputs are out of kilter this morning, and as ever something inbetween is likely. I do think there is good evidence for something less settled into week 2, but at at this stage not as drastic as what the EC Op is showing.

As ever, further runs needed. The reliable looks well sewn out now though.

 

appreciate your informative posts, the lack of bias and interpretation of  the data available is to be appluaded (and thats no disrespect to other posters who are searching for summer)

[Summer Sun]

Bank!!

 

 

Shorter term there remains a lot of uncertainty with ECM wanting to bring lows across the UK in just over a weeks time

 

 

Before pressure tries to build once it pulls away

 

 

GFS however keeps us in a sunshine and showers (some long and possibly thundery) pattern with mostly light winds by keeping the fronts weak unlike ECM

 

 

Before it too rises pressure

 

 

And that eventually leads to the chart at the top of this post

Edited June 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

There is better news from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean compared to the 00z operational, the mean is much less progressive with that full scale atlantic breakdown on the op, the spoiler atlantic low is there but remains held further west and we pick up some weak ridging from the southwest. The overall trend from the ens mean is for a pleasantly warm and generally fine spell ahead with light winds and long sunny spells, temps should reach the low 70's and parts of the south & southeast could soar towards the mid 70's F, pressure does spring a leak but not to any great degree, it's generally close to 1020 mb through FI but there is at least a risk that heavy showers with a risk of thunder could break out more widely for a time, especially around halfway through the run with rather stagnant humid conditions before the weak ridge builds northeast to settle the weather down again, it looks to me as though the next 7-10 days are looking pretty good with lots of sunshine, light winds and warm temperatures for a change.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

The GEM has showed high pressure building again with no real high pressure breakdown two runs in a row, and the GFS is also showing this. Still doesn't mean it's right but adds some weight to it becoming the plausible outcome. As Frosty as said, the ECM ensembles make less of the trough with pressure building as well.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Barry95

[bluearmy]

week 2 is a time for watching the models rather than making predictions based upon them. need to wait for some consistency.

[049balt]

A cracker from wxmaps.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

[Frosty.]

Lots more good news from the Gefs 00z mean, warm and settled in the week ahead, we might flirt with trouble with a risk of more unsettled weather from the west for a time during week 2 but it then shows another warm anticyclonic spell, temperatures into the low 70's fairly widely and trending towards mid to high 70's F across southeastern britain, the continent looks like hotting up and the uk could tap into some of that warmth/humidity, as with all the other 00z output, there is a risk of heavy showers but most of the uk looks dry, warm and mostly sunny for the next 7-10 days, eastern coastal areas having cooling onshore sea breezes with a risk of sea mist/fog but equally it could be fine and sunny, pretty smooth sailing in terms of the general weather pattern for the next week at least..ENJOY. 

Edited June 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

Very little rain about this coming week for many of us although some showers here and there cannot be ruled out across Scotland towards mid-week.

We can see on this mornings T84hrs fax that little feature crossing the north sea, in the slack easterly flow, which is the cause of this.

 

Generally though it does look a pleasantly fine week with daytime temps. gradually warming up especially inland and further west,always a risk of eastern coastal areas seeing some low cloud and mist at times though.

The week after may become less settled as the Atlantic trough edges closer with the high receding further NE.

The 00z NAEF and ECM anomalies show where the pattern may be heading by day 10.

 

no real point in trying to pin down detail on this yet though except to say the ens do show a small increase in precipitation amounts in week 2.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=264&ext=1&y=98&run=0&runpara=0

 

perhaps an increase in showery activity rather than a full on breakdown?-maybe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowking]

Beat me to it Phil,

 

The GFS and ECM ensemble means looking remarkably similar to one another today at day 10:

 

 

We can also view them as height anomalies here:

 

 

As Phil says, you would describe such an upper pattern as more 'unsettled' or showery as opposed to full on cyclogenesis.

 

The 11-15 day GEFS mean offers a continuation of this setup:

 

 

Bearing in mind this is of course a height anomaly chart, whilst the significant feature initially looks to be the positive anomaly to the North-East, the real story for me is the lowering of heights through the Eastern Atlantic, meaning that lower pressure will never be too far away from the North-West of the UK, and is likely to see a continuation of the showery type setup.

 

Though it should be noted we are still seeing a fairly considerable swing between even ensemble means on the final position of the longwave pattern at present. It's good to see a little continuity between suites this morning, and hopefully we can carry this forward and start to get a more stable outlook from medium range NWP.

 

SK