Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Barry12]

That met office forecast has basically put every possible outcome 'there will be rain at times', 'it will be dry at times'.

Anyway back in November 2012 I remember all the long term signals pointing to a easterly in December, it basically never came off. So regardless of what says what, nothing is ever certain. This time next week a lot will change, and I'm pretty sure the NAEFS and whatever else will be saying something different. No disrespect Snowking but how you can say what will happen in mid July, 6 weeks away I do not know, never mind October!

[Frosty.]

Looking at next week, the Gfs 06z shows high pressure building strongly northwards through the uk, initially there will be a lot of cloud trapped within this anticyclone but as it migrates further to the north, sunshine amounts should increase, there will be some sunshine around during the next few days but we will also be chasing large and slow moving areas of cloud around too but some holes will be punched in that cloudsheet, especially across the southern half of the uk, Into next week, there are likely to be some heavy showers in the north & west, mostly across ireland and western scotland although gradually tending to become more scattered, a few isolated heavy showers elsewhere but a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather, some of the warmest temps next week look like being across western ireland, regularly into the low 70's F and later next week the warmest weather would be across southern england with temps into the mid 70's F, the north & east not as warm but pleasant enough in the mid 60's F, humidity levels increase later next week so it would feel very warm in the south by then with a few thundery showers breaking out. The overall synoptical situation later next week indicates a strong persistent ridge of high pressure extending northeastwards to the northwest of scotland from the main atlantic/azores anticyclone with the driest and sunniest conditions throughout the outlook period and pleasantly warm with lower humidity levels for more north western parts of britain but pressure eventually looks like generally falling to the south of the uk with a growing threat of thundery rain and showers with torrential downpours and a risk of flooding but also with some sunshine and warm, humid conditions although cooling off in any persistent rain, this is only based on my view of the 6z op run.

Edited June 1, 2013 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

That met office forecast has basically put every possible outcome 'there will be rain at times', 'it will be dry at times'.

I do love the way some of you pick or even misquote official forecasts. Making negative comments is always very easy whether it is about weather forecasting or any other professional opinion. Making a constructive suggestion as to how it might be improved is rarely to be read.

If I feel they are wrong I always say so but in this case looking at what is available to us then the forecast you misquote, I assume it is the 6-15 outlook (?),then to me it seems an emminently sensible summation of what the data we have is suggesting. Even to days when one or the other is predicted to happen.

[Methuselah]

That met office forecast has basically put every possible outcome 'there will be rain at times', 'it will be dry at times'.

Anyway back in November 2012 I remember all the long term signals pointing to a easterly in December, it basically never came off. So regardless of what says what, nothing is ever certain. This time next week a lot will change, and I'm pretty sure the NAEFS and whatever else will be saying something different. No disrespect Snowking but how you can say what will happen in mid July, 6 weeks away I do not know, never mind October!

And, what would you have said then?

[Tamara]

That met office forecast has basically put every possible outcome 'there will be rain at times', 'it will be dry at times'.

Anyway back in November 2012 I remember all the long term signals pointing to a easterly in December, it basically never came off. So regardless of what says what, nothing is ever certain. This time next week a lot will change, and I'm pretty sure the NAEFS and whatever else will be saying something different. No disrespect Snowking but how you can say what will happen in mid July, 6 weeks away I do not know, never mind October!

He is making suggestions as to how he believes the further outlook and extended further outlook may pan out based on his own methodology which is presented to back those views up. The weather is a highly fickle beast to predict for periods in advance but the likes of GP when he was here, and one or two on the stratosphere thread have shown that there are meteorological tools that are available and can be useful indicators of how weather patterns across the NH might evolve over longer forecast times. 

 

This is a macro analysis that is not designed to give specific detail well ahead in advance, but an overview of how various background signals may affect the distribution of pressure patterns across the NH, seasonally, that in turn gives us a guide to the potential pressure patterns, airstreams,ppn amounts and temperature levels we might expect in the UK and Europe. SK has simply given a brief overview of those, as well as recent update progress since the Spring and the suggestions of how things might evolve from there. Providing timelines is a way to objectively plot prediction and verfication and from that in turn, much more can be learned to further improve accuracy as time unfolds. Model and ensemble output of various kinds up to 10 and 15 days at a time are the most obvious ongoing methods of plotting developments and progress.

 

There is harm at a long term punt either (eg the October one), on the basis that most readers are intelligent to know that it is no more than that and not take it as formal prediction...

Edited June 1, 2013 by Tamara Road

[AWD]

I think it's best to forget about the depth of the trough the ECM Op showed in FI this morning;

It's temperature predictions do have much better support however;

Edited June 1, 2013 by AWD

[phil nw.]

While it's quiet i will lock this thread shortly and open a new one.

 

Anyone ready to post please hold off for a few minutes until the new one is live.

[phil nw.]

Right locking this thread now.

 

New one here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76820-model-output-discussion-12z-010613/