Far North of England Regional Discussion: 21st May 2013 onwards

[Summer Sun]

Glorious start in Darlo not a cloud in the sky

[Boro Snow]

Yes highs of 24/25 today unbroken sunshine, sunbathing day today I think before it goes downhill tomorrow. Gav what's your thoughts on tomorrow, looks interesting to me

[Summer Sun]

Yes highs of 24/25 today unbroken sunshine, sunbathing day today I think before it goes downhill tomorrow. Gav what's your thoughts on tomorrow, looks interesting to me

 

What  a lovely day it has been perfect for a BBQ and topping up the extensive tan!

 

Tomorrow is a tricky one it should be sunny till mid afternoon ish possibly an isolated shower during the day but thats a low risk

 

Its tomorrow night when things look like kicking off there will be a band of heavy rain moving up the country with this there could be thunder and lightening

 

There is also a significant risk of flooding across the UK tomorrow night and into Sunday

 

amounts of rainfall are very hard to guess at this stage but a rough estimate from the met office is upto 30mm falling in an hour with maybe as much 50mm more in places in 3 hours or so

[Summer Sun]

The latest GFS has the heaviest rain arriving during the early hours of tomorrow morning

 

[ballybabe21]

Guess ill be sleeping with the bedroom curtains open and hoping I get woken up by any action that occurs lol

[Boro Snow]

its starting to get really dark from the south maybe somethings brewing

[Andy_]

The latest GFS has the heaviest rain arriving during the early hours of tomorrow morning

 

 

 

GFS has 57mm of rain for my location, I imagine even more for others, canny deluge! 

[Cloud 10]

its starting to get really dark from the south maybe somethings brewing

 

Decent looking shower on radar,can it turn thundery?

 

[Summer Sun]

its starting to get really dark from the south maybe somethings brewing

 

Yep a small area of rain is on the way as I said yesterday there was a small risk of a shower developing and it appears one will develop

Decent looking shower on radar,can it turn thundery?

 

hiradarzoomv42.png

 

Maybe but there is no lightening strikes from it as yet

[Summer Sun]

The radar shows it should be raining here I can confirm it isn't very cloud but dry still any rain that does come will be short lived

[Boro Snow]

lightning out to the west of darlo, but its gunna pass darlo to the west aswell

The radar shows it should be raining here I can confirm it isn't very cloud but dry still any rain that does come will be short lived

you listening to the boro match gav

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the main band has gone to the west of Darlo one of those close but no cigar events

 

Yes I am sounds like Marvin is back to his old self again I have good feelings about the new season this time next week we'll be almost at half time in the Leicester game doesn't seems that long since last season ended!

 

Sounds like Jutkiewicz is playing well too I expect a vast improvement from him this season

[jennyifer]

i can hear thunder now in darlo not over head tho.have just seen lightning also

[Boro Snow]

i can hear thunder now in darlo not over head tho.have just seen lightning also

mindue looking at the radar they is another cell  developing right by the one thats just past to the west of us, 

Edited July 27, 2013 by Lee aka Boro Snow

[Isolated Frost]

Well, tonight looks interesting on the hr-ec

That is a frame for 1am, main activity bustles in around midnight- them purples are some serious stuff, definite big convection and possible t-storms. Convective porn, lets see Cameron censor this.

[Summer Sun]

This is how the beeb see things for over night as of this lunchtime

 

Given all the cloud overnight it will be another warm night across the board with temperatures in the towns and cities not dropping below 15c

 

22:00

 

 

00:00

 

 

04:00

 

 

05:00 showing the lowest temperatures the temperatures will get to across the UK

 

 

The last of the rain will take its time to clear NE England and Scotland but once it does the sun will get out once again this could trigger some isolated heavy showers just about anywhere but the further east you are the better chance you have of staying dry and sunny

 

 

Of course non of this should be taken as a given things could change at the last minute it all depends on the track of the rain

i can hear thunder now in darlo not over head tho.have just seen lightning also

 

I never heard any thunder I was out the back at that time as well all I heard was a noisy jet overhead

[Summer Sun]

Amber warning just issued for the north east only

 

Issued at: 1646 on Sat 27 Jul 2013

 

Valid from: 0005 on Sun 28 Jul 2013

 

Valid to: 1300 on Sun 28 Jul 2013

 

Areas of heavy, thundery rain will continue to move north across England affecting NE England on Sunday morning before clearing by early afternoon. The public should be prepared for the risk of localised disruption, mainly due to surface water flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over France on Saturday and then move northwards to affect many parts of eastern and northern England on Sunday morning. Although there remains some uncertainty concerning the extent of these heavy showers and thunderstorms, there is an increasing signal for an area of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms to move north to affect northeastern England. There will be some short duration torrential rainfall and although rainfall amounts will vary considerably, there is scope for 30 to 50mm of rain to fall widely and up to 75mm in some areas.

[seabreeze86]

Talk about a last minute upgrade, who would of thought that only the north-east would be under a amber alert this morning. That band in the channel is exploding.

 

Bring it on.

[Andy_]

So are we expecting any thunder within the band...Or just thereafter in showers?

[Isolated Frost]

So are we expecting any thunder within the band...Or just thereafter in showers?

Yeah, sure, why not- looking at the intensity, thunder should be around, potentially big time

 

Incredible if that comes off, 0500 frame, wowza. Serious precip overnight on the HREC; that would be 40-60mm and 60mm+ in certain areas from 0000 to 1200. And to think it's going to be in the late teens whilst it all happens... and towards the end of next week, we're looking at passing 25c+ again. Incredible persistant warmth this July.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Andy_]

Yeah, sure, why not- looking at the intensity, thunder should be around, potentially big time

 

 

 

I'm going to assume we'll all be getting woke up then haha 

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Looks like I came to the right place! Nice to see that amber warning for the North East.

I'm thinking the best place might end up being the coast, I get the feeling there could be some storms out in the North Sea. 

I'm in Jarrow tonight, ready to drive to see something, but at the moment I think there's more chance I'll be driving around looking at floods than driving to see lightning, but we'll see. It's going to be an interesting evening/night.

 

Nice to be back on this thread, the Midlands one just isn't the same.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Did anyone just see that BBC national forecast? He really ramped up the extent of the rainfall in the North East. The regional one was useless, didn't look anywhere near as severe and she said we were only under a yellow warning, maybe it wasn't done live?

Plenty of flashy lightning symbols around too on the national forecast.

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are expecting this rain to get really intense over the NE by early tomorrow morning hence the Amber warning for this part of the UK Thunder and lightening with flash flooding is very likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see more amber warnings for the west looking at the map

 

 

By mid morning the rain should be easing through to NE and heading through eastern Scotland for the south the sun will be breaking through getting to work on dry up the ground after a wet night

 

 

By tomorrow afternoon its a completely different picture with the sun out and temperatures in the mid to low 20's for most of England, Northern Ireland and Wales

 

 

I bet if that was the SE they'd issue a red warning....................

 

There will be some short duration torrential rainfall and although rainfall amounts will vary considerably, there is scope for 30 to 50mm of rain to fall widely and up to 75mm in some areas.

 

It looks like the heaviest rain will last for around 2 hours before it starts to ease of course it may not turn out to be as heavy as expected everywhere local variations may come into play in the next 12 hours or so we'll all know though

Edited July 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

Some intense precipitation showing on the 12z NAE,which tends to be quite 

conservative compared to other models,and also a nasty little area of low

pressure just off the coast tomorrow morning.