Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[Polar Maritime]

What would Lovelock do now, I ask, if he were me? He smiles and says: "Enjoy life while you can. Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan." 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange

[jonboy]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-54#entry2934155

 

Odd, Jonboy, how you missed this misleading article. The 812mm rainfall figure is way wrong. If a AGW scientist did that you'd all be screaming 'fraud'! But, hey, maybe Christopher Booker is allowed to make mistakes to make a point???

 

Yet again Dev you mislead by using my name is a response. My post is clearly about the article in Forbes yet you want to link it to an article in the telegraph and assume I have missed it. As usual you wish to twist facts to try and discredit those with views opposite to yours but then I have not seen many posts from yourselve expressing an opinion 

[knocker]

Something awfully wrong with the whole concept of "debate"

http://thefrogthatjumpedout.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/something-awfully-wrong-with-whole.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Edited February 17, 2014 by knocker

[Devonian]

Yet again Dev you mislead by using my name is a response. My post is clearly about the article in Forbes yet you want to link it to an article in the telegraph and assume I have missed it. As usual you wish to twist facts to try and discredit those with views opposite to yours but then I have not seen many posts from yourselve expressing an opinion 

 

 I responded to you because yours was a post that posted a claimed some others had mislead. I pointed out that Christopher Booker was misleading and that no one had noticed that. I did not say Booker had 'twisted the facts' - I went as far as to wonder if it was a mistake and I pointed out his mistake.

 

As to trying to discredit others views, well, its precisely what your post and your post I previously replied to try to do...

 

Btw, this is the man made thread. I can keep to one thread, several others can't.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Devonian

[4wd]

Seeing as newspaper articles are in vogue today I'll temporarily enter the fray. Roll of drums please.......................... Climate change: time for the sceptics to put up or shut up If climate change sceptics have a coherent explanation for the events we are witnessing, it's time they held an international conference and told us what they believe. Of course this is no easy task with no head. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/climate-change-deniers-put-up-or-shut-up

That'll be from the weather not climate unless we say it is files?The sudden crowing atmosphere in this thread is pretty sickening just now - because the south has had a jolly wet winter and Prince Charles and Ed Balls have made a supportive statement?Compulsive proof.So, what do you want to do about it - apart from slag off anyone gently pointing out a wet winter is nothing new and doesn't prove much.

[Gray-Wolf]

Oh what are you to do Four? If it's not 'Frankenstorm' , it's Australian bushfires/heatwaves/droughts, if it's not that it's Haiyan, if it's not that it's whacky jet Streams and polar outbreaks, if not that then it's spring tides augmented by sea level rise giving the worst floods in 60yrs..... and see the same a month later...., if it's not that it's polar outbreaks and camp Bastion under snow.... or summer floods since 07' , or winter wetness......

 

To cap it all we have Presidents and Prime Ministers telling us that it's climate change and we need to act....... only compounded by the head of our own beloved Met Office linking whacky weather with the warming....

 

Tell you what old Dear, chin up? Surely things can't just keep getting worse now could they? Why that would mean the climate is changing and weather is weirding as a response...........

[knocker]

That'll be from the weather not climate unless we say it is files?The sudden crowing atmosphere in this thread is pretty sickening just now - because the south has had a jolly wet winter and Prince Charles and Ed Balls have made a supportive statement?Compulsive proof.So, what do you want to do about it - apart from slag off anyone gently pointing out a wet winter is nothing new and doesn't prove much.

 

 

That'll be from the weather not climate unless we say it is files?

 

Haven't a clue what that means.

 

 

The sudden crowing atmosphere in this thread is pretty sickening just now - because the south has had a jolly wet winter and Prince Charles and Ed Balls have made a supportive statement?

 

I haven't noticed any crowing atmosphere merely an attempt to stick with scientific data which I appreciate is an alien concept in the other thread where of course the headless cockerel can't crow. Has anyone mentioned Charley or Balls because their opinion is not important.

 

 

Compulsive proof

 

Of course not but strong indications supported by scientific argument. One that I have not seen countered in like manner but just the usual mantra,"we've had rainy periods in the past".

 

 

So, what do you want to do about it - apart from slag off anyone gently pointing out a wet winter is nothing new and doesn't prove much.

 

What do want me to do about it? It would be a pleasant surprise though if the other thread stuck to the point and supplied some decent scientific argument to support their ideology.

Edited February 17, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Wandered out yesterday and low and behold came across a senior sceptic.

Edited February 17, 2014 by knocker

[Devonian]

That'll be from the weather not climate unless we say it is files?

The sudden crowing atmosphere in this thread is pretty sickening just now - because the south has had a jolly wet winter and Prince Charles and Ed Balls have made a supportive statement?

Compulsive proof.

So, what do you want to do about it - apart from slag off anyone gently pointing out a wet winter is nothing new and doesn't prove much.

 

Fine, but please stick to your own thread.

 

It keeps us all at arms length...

 

And, in fact, I think the two threads idea works

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the biggest thing the other thread either don't get, or refuse to acknowledge, is that this current hike of 0.8c has plumped up the hydrological cycle by a massive 7% ( twice as big as the models predicted) so a future 2.0c warmer will see it blossom by near 30%.

 

If they are moaning about links made to a system 7% bigger then what the hell are they going to moan about when it's 4 times as 'energetic'? 

 

The loss of the Arctic will not only impact the Jet but will , overnight, bring about abrupt warming. Should that amount to 0.8c then we can double the ferocity of the extremes we see now. We could see the ice gone by the end of this decade. Are they ready for such a massive change overnight??? 

 

Well if they see this wet winter as just that.... and nothing extra ordinary..... then let them wait until we have twice the amount of extra water in the atmosphere and jets linking pole to tropics..... maybe by 2020?

[Polar Maritime]

[knocker]

Met Office in the Media: 16 February 2014, response by Professor Mat Collins and the Met Office

17 02 2014

 

An article by David Rose appeared yesterday in the Mail on Sunday entitled: ‘No, global warming did NOT cause the storms, says one of the Met Office’s most senior experts’

 

In it he says that Mat Collins, Professor in Climate Systems at Exeter University, ‘appears to contradict’ the report released by the Met Office last weekend and that he ‘declined to comment on his difference in opinion’ with one of the report’s authors, Dame Julia Slingo.

 

This is not the case and there is no disagreement.

 

The report by the Met Office states that “As yet, there is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of climate change to the recent storminess, rainfall amounts and the consequent flooding. This is in part due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and climate.†  This agrees with the latest IPCC Report that states: “Substantial uncertainty and thus low confidence remains in projecting changes in Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, especially for the North Atlantic basin.â€

 

This is the basis for Prof Collins’ comment and means that we are not sure, yet, how the features that bring storms across the Atlantic to the UK – the jet-stream and storm track – might be impacted by climate change. As the Met Office report highlights for this year’s extreme conditions, there are many competing factors – from changes in the winds of the upper atmosphere to disturbed weather over Indonesia.

 

What the Met Office report – and indeed the IPCC – does say is that there is increasing evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense. It is clear that global warming has led to an increase in moisture in the atmosphere – with about four per cent more moisture over the oceans than in the 1970s – which means that when conditions are favourable to the formation of storms there is a greater risk of intense rainfall. This is where climate change has a role to play in this year’s flooding.

 

With respect to changes in storminess, the good news is that recent advances in climate science are starting to pay dividends. Improved spatial resolution in models – that means that they can model weather and climate in more spatial detail – is allowing the models to represent some of the key factors that drive regional weather patterns. As the Met Office report states ‘With a credible modelling system in place it should now be possible to perform scientifically robust assessments of changes in storminess, the degree to which they are related to natural variability and the degree to which there is a contribution from human-induced climate change.’

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/met-office-in-the-media-16-february-2014-response-by-professor-mat-collins-and-the-met-office/

Edited February 17, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-55#entry2934803

 

Any chance of a link to the graph Keith. I ask because Mr Spencer, the sceptic garu disagrees.

 

 

The winter months of December 2013 and January 2014 averaged over the contiguous 48 United States were the 3rd coldest Dec/Jan in the last 30 years.

 

And he has his own adjustment for UHI. He concludes.

 

 

So, does the cold winter disprove global warming theory? No more than an unusually warm winter proves the theory. It’s just what we used to call “weatherâ€.

 

Never thought I'd use this link

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/03/u-s-decjan-temperatures-3rd-coldest-in-30-years/

 

 

[Devonian]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-55#entry2934803

 

Any chance of a link to the graph Keith.

 

...

 

 

Goddard.

 

=

 

Dodgy.

[knocker]

Goddard.

 

=

 

Dodgy.

 

Well that's one word for it. Best ignored  then.

[Devonian]

Well that's one word for it. Best ignored  then.

 

Worth thinking about what he did. It seems he simply graphed all the data he could get. Sound like a good idea? Well (and here Knocks I'm talking to any poor unfortunates who might buy Goddard's deception*) suppose a cold, densely populated state has 10 weather stations and a warmer, less populated state 1 wouldn't that skew the result? You betcha! And where has the cold weather been....

 

Keith, you've been had.

 

*Well, he could just be an ignoramus

[knocker]

Interesting roundup of current position in RealClimate.

 

Going with the wind

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/02/going-with-the-wind/

Edited February 18, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

http://descrier.co.uk/science/2014/02/melting-sea-ice-making-arctic-darker-amplifying-global-warming/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=melting-sea-ice-making-arctic-darker-amplifying-global-warming

 

Thought I'd post this here as well. 

 

I've been banging on about what we have coming once we lose the Arctic sea ice and to now have this figure is deeply worrying. 1979 until 2011 , 32 years, of that 27 years had a near full ice cover of the basin and so the past 7 years of 1/3 to half the ice missing , come September, has yet to fully impact the average alteration. By the time we see an Arctic 'ice free' we will probably only have the implication of the late noughties being made apparent in the 'averages'.

 

It would appear that the major contributor in the current average is the loss of snow cover from the late nineties onward. If this 'tweak' represents 25% of the warming from CO2 then what will an ice free Arctic Ocean equate to???

 

We know the impacts from albedo flip are near instant and so the season that sees 'ice free' conditions will also be the one we see the impacts begin to effect global climate.

 

When I warn that the next 5 years might see the rapid acceleration of the 'climate weirding' we are now seeing it is because of the loss of the Arctic albedo and it's opening up as a 'heat engine' over the spring/summer/autumn months.

[The PIT]

GW how about calling it Global Climate Oscillation rather climate weirdness.

[knocker]

I don't know whether this has been posted before from Berkeley Earth but it has a whack of interesting stuff, Haven't had chance to look through it all but thought it might be of interest.

 

Summary of Findings

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings?/results-summary/

[knocker]

Heat is on to combat climate change's silent killer

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/heat-is-on-to-combat-climate-changes-silent-killer-20140217-32w6h.html#ixzz2th4iN7Rm

[knocker]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-55#entry2935255

 

Previous Predictions For Milder Winters

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6401063.stm

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/r/UK.pdf

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4436934/Snow-is-consistent-with-global-warming-say-scientists.html

 

And in 2010, Julia Slingo

 

a) Prolonged snowfall and low temperatures, comparable with conditions seen during November and December 2010 are within the range of natural climate variability observed over the past 50 years.

b) The latest available regional climate projections for the UK (UKCP09) indicate a reducing likelihood of severe winters in future, due to the long-term warming climate. Natural climate variability implies that severe events remain possible but with reduced likelihood.

 

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/pgr-resilience-briefing-pdf/report.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

Like my dying house plants last desperate bloom the cold winters of 09/10 and 10/11 are Natures last, best, efforts at such. They are the last we ( folk alive today) will ever see of such.

 

We may see a cold week here and there but no more cold setting in in early December and running through to March. 

 

The stats on Arctic albedo have sealed Winters fate.

 

What are the odds of another low Solar/IPO deep sea warming,PDO-ve and La Nina over the next 50 years? What are the chances of a sustainable summer presence of Sea ice over the next 50 years? Not gunna happen.

 

What we have in store is a strong chance of a La Nino this year ( maybe running into next if the Trades allow), a return of the 'perfect melt storm' in the Arctic sometime from 2017 onward, a flip back positive for the PDO ( and the preponderance of La Nino's it entails) and the flip to IPO 'surface warming' with a drop off in the trades so near constant Nino conditions whilst the ocean sheds it's 0 to 300m heat imbalance. we have the circumpolars falling light so the collapse in Antarctic sea ice and the rapid 

incursion of higher temps into West Antarctica. We already have Greenlands albedo collapsing... all we need is a warm enough year to reveal the dark below by melting out the snow above. We have Asia addressing it's pollution issues ( so a reduction in 'Dimming'). We have both U.S. and UK pushing into fracking ( and the CH4/CO2 this brings ....long term).

 

Winter? That's the least of our problems............ 

[Styx]

Like my dying house plants last desperate bloom the cold winters of 09/10 and 10/11 are Natures last, best, efforts at such. They are the last we ( folk alive today) will ever see of such.

 

We may see a cold week here and there but no more cold setting in in early December and running through to March. 

 

The stats on Arctic albedo have sealed Winters fate.

 

 

I don't wish to sound critical of the gist of your post, but after December 2010, didn't the Met office and subsequent scientific reports suggest the weather events of that month were signs of future winters to come...that severe and prolonged cold events would be increasing in frequency, due to the 'altered' jet stream, caused by the Arctic scenario you highlight?

 

Has science moved on so much in the last 2 or 3 years, to find those findings to now be null n void?

Edited February 18, 2014 by Styx

[Polar Maritime]

Im sure met said signs of extreme weather events to come, the jet is still way South in places just not over us, we get the extreme of the storms and America get the extremes of the cold.