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Manmade Climate Change Discussion

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Not news but I missed this the first time around.

 

Approaching a planetary state shift

Lead author Anthony Barnosky, in an interview following publication of “Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere†(2012)

 

A group of scientists from around the world who are part of The Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology (BiGCB) is warning that an ever-growing population and widespread destruction of natural ecosystems may be driving Earth toward a planet-wide tipping point, an irreversible change in the biosphere with unpredictable consequences. Anthony Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley, is the lead author of a review paper about this issue in the journal Nature.

 

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According to Canadian Senior Climatologist Dave Phillips, Lake Ontario has frozen over on two recorded occasions. The first came during the winter of 1874-75. The second came during the cold winter of 1934 (February) Almost frozen over now (92 percent covered with ice).

In a typical winter, only about 10 percent of Lake Ontario is ice-covered.Its close but record ice in the great lakes is nearly there,http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/02/great_lakes_added_11_percent_i.html

 

Why do the sceptics love ice that will be all gone by late spring??? We've all seen the reasons for the freeze up ( and suffered from the results in the SW) but apart from the novelty of the story what interest is it in the environment section? Is it a linking to the enhanced Jet swings If so maybe look west a few hundred miles to the issues they've been having in Alaska with rain drenched mountains collapsing downslope?

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Why do the sceptics love ice that will be all gone by late spring??? We've all seen the reasons for the freeze up ( and suffered from the results in the SW) but apart from the novelty of the story what interest is it in the environment section? Is it a linking to the enhanced Jet swings If so maybe look west a few hundred miles to the issues they've been having in Alaska with rain drenched mountains collapsing downslope?

That's a rather odd thing too say GW, of course ice will disappear cometh the summer, that's not the point of the story as you know. It's quite exceptional considering it's only been recorded once before.

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So are the records again ( 1 year on) being set in Melbourne but I've never once seen KL link to 'warm' events? Forgive me for 'pattern matching' but throughout the cold outbreaks we heard nothing but a gleeful KL? The heat , and fires, in Australia are surely of greater concern to everyone?

 

I'm also finding it difficult to match the data provided with only 1 lake a 92% currently and the rest still behind the 79 , 96 freezes?

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/great-lakes-ice-cover-largest-century-20140207

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-53#entry2923478 

As you are  accusing BOM of deliberately massaging the facts Keith (tantamount to accusing them of fraud) perhaps you could point at where you disagree with their detailed reply to Marohasy.

 

http://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/BOM_Response-to-Dr-Marohasy_MARKUP.pdf

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-53#entry2923478

 

 

I thought I'd condense the BBC article linking the recent weather to global warming. All I've done is put the headline and all of the expert's quotes.

 

Met Office: Evidence 'suggests climate change link to storms'

Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms. "But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

 

"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events.

 

"We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this," she said. "We have seen some exceptional weather. We can't say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional."

 

"The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall."

Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences."

 

I think the summary of the report is perhaps more informative.

 

 

Summary

 

This winter the UK has been affected very severely by an exceptional run of winter storms, culminating in serious coastal damage and widespread, persistent flooding.

 

This period of weather has been part of major perturbations to the Pacific and North Atlantic jet streams driven, in part, by persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific.

 

The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to exceptional wind patterns in the stratosphere with a very intense polar vortex.

 

This paper documents the record-breaking weather and flooding, considers the potential drivers and discusses whether climate change contributed to the severity of the weather and its impacts.

 

Although no individual storm can be regarded as exceptional, the clustering and persistence of the storms is highly unusual. December and January were exceptionally wet. For England and Wales this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods of winter rainfall in at least 248 years. The two-month total (December + January) of 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest any 2-month period in the series from 1910.

 

During January and into February the tracks of the storms fell at a relatively low latitude, giving severe gales along the south and west coasts and pushing the bulk of the ocean wave energy toward the southwest of Ireland and England. Peak wave periods were exceptionally long; each wave carried a lot of energy and was able to inflict significant damage on coastal infrastructure.

 

In a series from 1883, flow rates on the River Thames remained exceptionally high for longer than in any previous flood episode. Correspondingly, floodplain inundations were extensive and protracted.

 

The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America. There is a strong association with the stormy weather experienced in the UK during December and January and the up-stream perturbations to the jet stream over North America and the North Pacific.

 

The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region.

 

The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to an unusually strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which in turn has driven a very deep polar vortex and strong polar night jet.

 

As yet, there is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of climate change to the recent storminess, rainfall amounts and the consequent flooding. This is in part due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and climate.

 

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. This equates to 23-27cm (9-10½ inches) of total sea level rise since 1900.

 

Recent studies suggest an increase in the intensity of Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter’s extreme weather. Also the long-term warming of the sub-tropical Atlantic will also act to enhance the amount of moisture being carried by storms that take this more southerly track.

 

There is an increasing body of evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of increase is consistent with what is expected from fundamental physics. There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly heavy rain events.

 

More research is urgently needed to deliver robust detection of changes in storminess and daily/hourly rain rates. The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall. Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences.

Edited by knocker

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First Grey Wolf i refer to Australia/Melbourne record heat i refer to earlier article  Excellent facts about BOM and Australia "s so  called record hot temperatures, ,BOM weather stations are all across Australia Wrong most stations are in  South Eastern Australia! Posted Image So more massaging of the facts.http://t.co/Tk8ATaiW1t. Concerning ice growth in the Great Lakes http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/

 

Better tell upgrade that he's lying about what he's actually living through down there ( Weather around the World thread) Keith..... I'm sure your blog masters would appreciate it!

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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I get the feeling this is not going to be a very pleasant 12 month period for KL? Somehow I think finding cold is going to prove a tad difficult over the coming months? The predicted Nino keeps looking ever firmer and now we are seeing signs that the PDO is done with the -ve phase and is also about to flip positive. The big wonder is how will the Trade Winds react to this change? With us now seeing how the PDO-ve impacted them I have to wonder just how PDO positive will impact them? Are we to see a reverse impact with them falling light and allowing a near permanent Nino as the ocean begins to leach out the accrued heat?

 

With the upcoming flip of IPO to 'warm surface' phase this places the whole of the pacific basin acting like a big radiator ( and this on top of the current warming potential that 400ppm CO2 places in the air compared to the figures at the start of the 90's?).

 

Plug into that the impacts of an ice free Arctic Basin and I see 'deep cold' a very limited resource?

 

And what of the ice bloom in Antarctica? Do we think that the knock on effects of the stronger trades could have made Weddell better able to hold onto ice? What would KL do if he lost this effect of AGW as well?

 

Never mind I think we will all be far too busy dealing with the impacts of the switch back to positive natural drivers....

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Sometimes I think it's forgotten the term “skeptic†derives from a Greek noun, skepsis, which means examination, inquiry, consideration

 

The Real Difference between Skeptics and Deniers

 

Anthony Watts has a post which mocks scientists who are trying to explain “the pause.†It oozes ridicule because so many possible explanations have been explored, which he dismisses as “hand-waving.â€

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/the-real-difference-between-skeptics-and-deniers/

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-53#entry2923478

 

You need to go beyond the national compiled data to also consider the increasing frequency of heat records set at local, regional and state level, daily/annual/monthly/ and seasonal ... the incidence of increased heatwaves, records broken for extreme heat thresholds being met (such as 30+, 40+ days) urban and otherwise, clear decline in alpine snow and length of winter season, changes in agricultural practices in regards to cropping/harvesting and growing seasons, record sea surface temperatures and persistent high anomaly...etc. 

 

 

 

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-53#entry2923478

 

You need to go beyond the national compiled data to also consider the increasing frequency of heat records set at local, regional and state level, daily/annual/monthly/ and seasonal ... the incidence of increased heatwaves, records broken for extreme heat thresholds being met (such as 30+, 40+ days) urban and otherwise, clear decline in alpine snow and length of winter season, changes in agricultural practices in regards to cropping/harvesting and growing seasons, record sea surface temperatures and persistent high anomaly...etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry Styx, if KL's normal MO is anything to go by he'll need to wait 70 years until a snippet appears in a UK local newspaper before he becomes aware/posts up such info? (LOL)

 

EDIT: on a more serious note;

 

2 Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature."

 

from; http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

 

So things really looking like a Nino for later in the year.

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Roy Spencer's latest deceit and deception

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-deception.html

 

WUWT boasts: "We don’t know clouds". Indeed they don't!

 

It's raining, it's pouring psoo-do-science at WUWT.WUWT is struggling, trying to find something to publish.  Anthony's resurrected a snippet from an umpteen-year-old email stolen from Professor Jones as his Quote of the Week.  He did that to prove what awful people mild-mannered, inoffensive, hard-working, pioneering climate researchers are.  His quote of the week was written by Eric "eugenics hoax" Worral (archived here).  He followed this up with a guest article by Rolf Westgard, which Anthony called an "essay" as if that adds panache or somehow makes up for it being so full of pseudo-science waffle. (Archived here.)

 

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/wuwt-boasts-we-dont-know-clouds-indeed.html

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-53#entry2926039

Interesting post!

I wish I could speak for 'the layman' - or do you mean you are the layman?

Anyway, why do you think the layman thinks the word 'suggests' means 'is caused by' the word suggests means that it suggests to me. And 'suggest there is a link' further qualifies the words and cannot possibly mean 'is [the stormy wet spell of weather] caused by [climate change] '. Can it? Does 'is' mean the same as 'suggests'?

I think 'all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change' means there is no evidence the climate atm would be like it is without our activities. But, that does not mean we can nail individual weather events down as due to us.

I like the cake analogy. Add extra currants to the mix and you clearly change the cake mix but how easy is it to say which currants were the extra ones rather than the, much easier to say, that the cake is different?

Edited by Devonian

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I listened to the Julia Slingo interview at the time and the BBC headline is quite misleading and a perfect example of the point John Nielson-Gammon makes below.
 

 

If the connection turns out to be nonexistent, we will again hear Person B saying scientists got another thing wrong about global warming, when in fact the problem is public officials and the media talking up what is at best a tentative connection.
 
 
The Weather Trap, by John Nielsen-Gammon
 

 

Climate change is something that’s difficult to experience directly.  How many people can say, from personal experience, that it feels like the average temperature in your hometown, let alone the globe, has changed by a degree or two over the past century?

 

Instead, people tend to try to detect climate change on their own from their experience of individual, usually extreme events.  For example, “It never seems to get as cold as it used to.† Communicators have learned this, and have taken to emphasizing individual events as evidence for or against climate change.

http://climatechangenationalforum.org/the-weather-trap-by-john-nielsen-gammon/

Edited by knocker

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-54#entry2926389

 

Keith, you live on planet Earth. You must know weather and climate vary? So, why do you expect change to either to to be linear, rather than variable? Who told you our effect on the atmosphere would be linear?

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Reading this report it seems to me the critical research in the future is going to be centred around the dynamics of the jet stream. This does appear to be relatively poorly understood at the moment. The relevant part of the report.

 

In seeking to answer questions about the impact of climate change on severe weather, there are two distinct steps to be taken. The first is to detect a change in either the frequency or intensity of storminess or rainfall events that is more than just the natural variability in UK weather. UK weather is notoriously volatile and so detection is particularly challenging. Severe storms have always affected the UK and are documented in many historical records. The intensity of recent storms is unusual, as the climatological records discussed earlier indicate, but not necessarily unprecedented.

 

A comprehensive study of trends in storminess, for the period 1871-2010 from an ensemble of reanalyses by Wang et al. (2013)12 provides some important insights. They show a robust signal of increasing numbers of strong winter cyclones and with increasing intensity for the high latitude North Atlantic (Figure 21), covering the region to the north of the UK and including Iceland. This is associated with a reduction in storminess further south and supports a wide body of evidence for a poleward shift of the Atlantic storm track.

 

However, their analysis of changes in storminess further south over the mid-latitude North Atlantic – the path of the recent storms – suggests a more complex signal. Although the number of strong winter cyclones has not increased since 1871, the mean intensity has. Notably, for very strong cyclones, the mean intensity has increased significantly. A more comprehensive study of storms affecting the UK is needed to explore these findings in more detail, but the current evidence does suggest an increase in storminess.

 

The persistence of the recent storminess is unusual, and although clustering of storms is quite common, the continued run of deep depressions, through December, January and on into February, is not. It is this continued run of storms that has created the exceptional flooding conditions experienced in the Somerset Levels, for example.

 

The persistence of the weather patterns affecting both the UK and also the US, where abnormally cold conditions have continued to affect the eastern and southern states through January, has raised questions about whether the jet stream is making greater excursions, north and south, and whether these waves in the jet stream are becoming more locked in one position13. This is a critical question because it raises the possibility that disruption of our usual weather patterns may be how climate change may manifest itself. The Met Office is now actively researching the best way to detect changes in the dynamics of the jet stream.

 

Fig 21

post-12275-0-91289800-1392206866_thumb.j

Edited by knocker

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Climate variability is larger on smaller spatial scales | Comparing global & Central England temperature since 1850

post-12275-0-28873900-1392211128_thumb.p

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-54#entry2926389

 

Keith, you live on planet Earth. You must know weather and climate vary? So, why do you expect change to either to to be linear, rather than variable? Who told you our effect on the atmosphere would be linear?

 

We are all different Dev? Some folk see the picture in details, others just the blur of it all? Some folk register grey , others only black and white. Sadly we all live within ourselves and so unconsciously 'measure' the world by our own intellectual experience of it?

 

Sure we know some folk are brighter than us and some dumber but we tend to overlook this when forming our own opinions and take it that everyone else will 'see' the picture as we experience it.

 

There are times I think we had better cut all the folk on that thread a bit of slack as they certainly do seem to be an impressionable bunch..... and we all know what quartile of folk this trait generally sits best with?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-54#entry2926389

 

Keith, you live on planet Earth. You must know weather and climate vary? So, why do you expect change to either to to be linear, rather than variable? Who told you our effect on the atmosphere would be linear?

 

KL here's some more cherry picking for you - this graph show the recent temperature for Longyearbyen on Svalbard. The blue line represents the current 30-day running trend and the black the long term mean. Yes that's right, the last month is almost 16 degrees above average.

 

post-2779-0-51985500-1392219163_thumb.jp

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Edited by Interitus

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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-54#entry2926951

A very odd post. Why? Because it's claim that lake Ontario (Ontario) is 92% frozen is simply not backed up by either of your links. Go on, read them. So what I wonder is where the words you quote come from because I can't find them.

But, lets be clear lake Ontario is not "92% frozen" or anything like that amount. A more accurate figure is 29%

I sense a internet myth in the making...

Edit, hang on 92 is 29 backwards...Whatever, if a scientist made such an error as in your post you'd be using word like massage the facts, manipulated, mislead and probably fraud...

Edited by Devonian

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Just some more that has already been posted on and related matters.

 

Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.New research published in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface."Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear" said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science."But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal - as it inevitably will - our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."Earth imagery courtesy of NASA

 

 

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/02/12/faux-pause-part-2/

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I felt the need to brighten up the morning so a quick glance at you know where. Anthony is in "It's the Sun again", mode. Quote of the day.

 

If you have ever studied how the magnetic dynamo of the sun is so incredibly full of entropy, yet has cycles

 

And back in 2008, he wrote:

 

 Some say it is no coincidence that 2008 has seen a drop in global temperature as indicated by several respected temperature indexes compared to 2007, and that our sun is also quiet and still not kick starting its internal magentic dynamo.

 

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/oh-no-not-its-sun-again-recycling.html

Edited by knocker

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Abrupt Climate Change Focus of New Yale Forum Video

 

An issue that for years received only passing attention, even in many professional circles, abrupt climate change and potential impacts on at-risk ecosystems is getting more attention in the scientific sphere.

 

Senior Scientists discuss the potential for sudden disruptions of human and natural systems as a consequence of climate change

 

Edited by knocker

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