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Manmade Climate Change Discussion

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I thought it was self-evident. Both are projections leading to predictions from models, albeit one is grossly simpler than the other - besides, let's not get into semantics.

 

I think a brief glance at the goings on around here demonstrates that not everyone sees the same things in the same way!

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I think a brief glance at the goings on around here demonstrates that not everyone sees the same things in the same way!

 

Yes, fair enough.

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Should the other thread need a name to box me in with I found " Catastropharian " today and that would just about cover it?

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Should the other thread need a name to box me in with I found " Catastropharian " today and that would just about cover it?

Lol, very fitting. Who labelled you that as I haven't heard that saying for many a year.

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In all honesty SI I had a look around to see exactly what 'grouping' both my , and other peoples, opinion of 'Me', placed me?

 

I must admit that there is a duality here in that I'm a very Jolly/Zany/Caring individual with (still at 50) a hell-bent party mentality. The realisation of the threats of overpopulation, energy crisis, climate change, Pandemic and global conflict do not impact my thirst for life. Were I to pamper one of Pete's favourite pass-times I'd say it was my Piscean nature.................................... (Soz Pete......could'nt resist!)

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In all honesty SI I had a look around to see exactly what 'grouping' both my , and other peoples, opinion of 'Me', placed me?

 

I must admit that there is a duality here in that I'm a very Jolly/Zany/Caring individual with (still at 50) a hell-bent party mentality. The realisation of the threats of overpopulation, energy crisis, climate change, Pandemic and global conflict do not impact my thirst for life. Were I to pamper one of Pete's favourite pass-times I'd say it was my Piscean nature.................................... (Soz Pete......could'nt resist!)

Besides the climate change threat GW, I pretty much agree with you on all these issues. If we take away all the ballyhoo and posturing on these forums then I guess most of us fear much of the same things.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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Gosh! and only 22 years ago Knocks!

 

This is why I find myself with such a bleak outlook. I've been jabbering on about our environment since the 1980's and though folk mouth concern they just turn over the page as soon as you're gone.

 

The nasty side of the denialist movement call adherents to AGW 'Sheeple' and I sometimes wonder whether that observation of the 'flock' mentality is just about right? Without the top of the pile showing concern about AGW, in both word and deed, how are the folk below ever going to know how to act themselves?

 

We see current P.M. talking big on the problems whilst cutting fund to the E.A. and putting all his support behind fracking ( GHG's are GHG's no matter how much less you produce!) so the folk see him speak and then watch him act B.A.U...... what are they to feel?

 

Our war of words will go on as long as the climate is not giving us 24/7 reason to be concerned about it's behaviours and what drives them. Meanwhile, even with the sternest of warnings from science about where B.A.U. will take us, we trot on B.A.U. ( and worse!) as though we knew of no such dangers!

 

I have said all along that I fear only a huge climate catastrophe is going to be enough to focus global attention, and intentions, on mitigating climate change. Only when the threat is right there at the door will we act. Of course we will still have 30 odd years of worsening conditions 'in the bank' whenever we choose to act ( 'choose'? I meant 'are forced' of course!).

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Cowtan and Way: Surface temperature data update

 

Following the release of temperature data for December 2013,  we have updated our temperature series to include another year. From now on we hope to provide monthly updates. In addition we have released the first of a new set of 'version 2' temperature reconstructions.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/cowtan_way_surface_temperature_data_update.html#.UuZ3veOv54U.twitter

 

There is a post by Stefan Rahmstorf just out at RealClimate. He compares Cowtan and Way's temperature series with GISS and NOAA NCDC as well as HadCRUT4. His ranking of the warmest years of C&W's series is based on their Version2 rather than the Hybrid method.

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Not really the correct thread but I remember this when I studied oceanography. Rubber ducks and ocean currents.

 

In 1992, approximately 29000 rubber duckies fell off a cargo ship in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. This is where they made landfall. (850 x 523 px)

 

Their movements helped pinpoint ocean currents in the Pacific as well as how long it took water to circulate around the globe. More info on the ducks here

 

They weren't all ducks

post-12275-0-51907200-1390861573_thumb.j

Edited by knocker

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ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into autumn

 

Issued on Tuesday 28 January 2014

 

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of the austral autumn, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.

While most ENSO indicators are neutral, strong westerly winds currently over the far western tropical Pacific may lead to some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks.

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts made at other times of the year, hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Edited by knocker

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As far as the 'predictions' go Knocks I'm waiting on the spring round to see where they point us? As is mentioned above the Autumn/winter seasons do not prove to be very 'accurate' in their prediction but the 'trend' keeps on favouring warming later on over summer/autumn?

 

With 2010 being such a short Nino event I image the 'warm pool' , over the western side of the Pacific, is brimmed off and ready to slosh back east any time soon? Maybe the forecast strengthening of the westerlies, over the western side of the Pacific, will end up providing the impetus for the pool to fail and slosh back toward the Americas'?

 

Anyway , time will tell!

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Cowtan and Way: Surface temperature data update

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/cowtan_way_surface_temperature_data_update.html#.UuZ3veOv54U.twitter

 

There is a post by Stefan Rahmstorf just out at RealClimate. He compares Cowtan and Way's temperature series with GISS and NOAA NCDC as well as HadCRUT4. His ranking of the warmest years of C&W's series is based on their Version2 rather than the Hybrid method.

 

 

When you see anoms like this you have to wonder just what kind of impact accurate temps from the region would have had over the past 15yrs of rapid warming up there?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Sensible planning.

 

An ocean of concern

 

Climate change may not have been as prominent in the headlines in the 1980s as it is today, but it was certainly on the minds of engineers designing a new sewage-treatment plant for Boston.

 

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/01/an-ocean-of-concern/

Edited by knocker

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Climate change washing away Pacific villages

 

Standing on a remote coral atoll in the Pacific Ocean watching children play, it was deeply saddening to realise they will soon have to leave a place that has been home to their people for thousands of years.

 

Ontong Java, the most northerly part of Solomon Islands, is on the frontline of climate change.The rising seas are eating away the land and growing food is now almost impossible as salt poisons swamp taro, the staple crop.After 2000 years of settlement, it is increasingly likely that Ontong Java’s 2000 inhabitants will be its last, and bear the unenviable label of being one of the first communities in the world to be completely resettled as a result of climate change.

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I'm still really confused as to why , on the other thread, we hear talk of 'no warming' ? Surely we are all reading the same data? Surely we are all aware of the 'flavour' of the natural forcings? How can you, when you hold all that info and still see the slow down in the rate of warming as anything other than worrying? Why do they wilfully ignore that we should be seeing NO temperature rises under such forcing and more probably a fall in temps over the impacted period?

 

Could it be they they ignore all the other influences and look solely at the temp plot and predicted plot ( do not try and involve any negative forcings that we know exist?).

 

Come the switch of negative forcing back to positive do we think they will be as ignorant of those impacts on temp or will the suddenly 're-discover' the importance of 'nature' in driving global temps?

 

And what will they do once we see Asia's pollution dropping away? When current 'dimming impacts' are lessened by clean energy technology ( China is committed to introducing ever more such technology to deal with city pollution)? Will they tell us that humans had damped temps by their pollution or will they just accept the acceleration in warming rates?

 

As the jet migrates north over spring we will start to get our first reliable predictions of the upcoming ENSO phase. How will the sight of a strong Nino impact them ( esp. after the high ranking of 2013 in global temps?).

 

I get the feeling that we have seen the last year that they can play the 'no warming' game?

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Given the State of the Union Address yesterday by Obama which did not mention Climate Change in any way whatsoever are we about to see a change to a more sceptic stand point by one off the key supporters of AGW. Time as ever will tell.

 

 

In a speech that dedicated a significant section to environmental and energy policies, Obama categorically rejected assertions from some Republicans that climate change is a "hoax".

"The shift to a cleaner energy economy won't happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way," he said. "But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children's children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did."

 

 

 

 

From;

 

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2325698/obama-climate-change-is-a-fact?

 

 

“Taken together, our energy policy is creating jobs and leading to a cleaner, safer planet. Over the past eight years, the United States has reduced our total carbon pollution more than any other nation on Earth. But we have to act with more urgency — because a changing climate is already harming western communities struggling with drought, and coastal cities dealing with floods.

“That’s why I directed my administration to work with states, utilities, and others to set new standards on the amount of carbon pollution our power plants are allowed to dump into the air. The shift to a cleaner energy economy won’t happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.â€

 

Taken from;

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2014/01/key-quotes-from-obamas-state-of-the-union-address/?

 

 

On climate change

"Taken together, our energy policy is creating jobs and leading to a cleaner, safer planet. Over the past eight years, the United States has reduced our total carbon pollution more than any other nation on Earth. But we have to act with more urgency - because a changing climate is already harming western communities struggling with drought, and coastal cities dealing with floods.

"That's why I directed my administration to work with states, utilities, and others to set new standards on the amount of carbon pollution our power plants are allowed to dump into the air. The shift to a cleaner energy economy won't happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children's children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did."

 

Taken from;

 

http://www.news24.com/World/News/Obamas-State-of-Union-address-Key-quotes-20140129?

 

 

 

 

Where do the other thread look for information on climate change? Is it some kind of Misleader climate filter that deletes any mention of change???

 

EDIT: and before I draw fire I mean a comp. virus that folk get by visiting known misleader blogs........

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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I found this a clever way of explaining 'weather and climate' as they change! Call the climate the personality and the weather 'moods'? As the personality changes the 'moods' do too...... as the personality changes to become a more angry one then the 'moods' we see most frequently will reflect this change? One mood swing does not make a personality but see enough bad moods and you have to wonder what is going on with the person?

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Is this attributable to climate change................no. Is it consistent with what one would expect............................................yes.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZGsdnYqbjk#t=347

 

More on Arctic Oscillation from Dr. Ricky Rood

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/01/28/more-on-arctic-oscillation-from-dr-ricky-rood/

Edited by knocker

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