Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[BornFromTheVoid]

Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann on the recent Sherwood et al paper that suggests models with lower ECS don't match observations as well.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/a-bit-more-sensitive/

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes I'd read through that BFTV, doesn't look to promising for the avoidance of 2C or greater does it? Whilst reading the stuff on Ross I'd noted that the pst collapses were at temps 2C to 4C above pre -industrial temp levels? Should the cloud forcings pan out then it would appear to consign Ross to the southern oceans and I don't think the IPCC Sea level predictions are up for that are they?

[knocker]

Organizations Bankrolling Climate Change Denial Revealed in New Study

 

A new report in the journal Climatic Change details the sources of funding for climate change deniers. The study is the first peer-reviewed analysis of the funding organizations behind the climate change counter-movement.

 

Environmental sociologist Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University conducted the study during a year-long fellowship at Stanford University's Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. Brulle found that a number of well-known conservative organizations are at the backbone of the anti-climate change campaign, but that the money these organizations use to fund the counter-movement comes to them as "dark money" or through concealed funding efforts.

 

http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/5392/20131220/organizations-bankrolling-climate-change-denial-revealed-new-study.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

 

At +0.24C, 2013 is the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2005 (+0.26), 2010 (+0.40) and 1998 (+0.42), according to the UAH data.

It also appears to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record.Well lat least records don"t go back to the 1930"s  http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/46677243

 

 

 

Lets see what the MetO had to say about Jan 1935 eh? ( rather than a random snippet about 1 days observations?)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/o/Jan1935.pdf

 

So that's maxima of above 55f on one of the first three days of jan, 1935, for most of the country? This is of what type of significance?

 

And why, with meto data so easily available, are folk looking for news snippets from Australia about London weather????

Edited January 4, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

Lets see what the MetO had to say about Jan 1935 eh? ( rather than a random snippet about 1 days observations?)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/o/Jan1935.pdf

 

So that's maxima of above 55f on one of the first three days of jan, 1935, for most of the country? This is of what type of significance?

 

And why, with meto data so easily available, are folk looking for news snippets from Australia about London weather????

 

How do you find these reports GW? There is soooo much on the Met O. website it's hard to figure out where these things are. On what page? What link? Is there one for each month on line? Comes to mind.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Devonian

[knocker]

Reflections - with Carl Sagan

 

Carl Edward Sagan (November 9, 1934 – December 20, 1996)

Those worlds in space are as countless as all the grains of sand on all the beaches of the Earth. Each of those worlds is as real as ours. In every one of them, there's a succession of incidents, events, occurrences which influence its future. Countless worlds, numberless moments, an immensity of space and time.

And our small planet, at this moment, here we face a critical branch-point in the history. What we do with our world, right now, will propagate down through the centuries and powerfully affect the destiny of our descendants. It is well within our power to destroy our civilization, and perhaps our species as well.

If we capitulate to superstition, or greed, or stupidity we can plunge our world into a darkness deeper than time between the collapse of classical civilization and the Italian Renaissance.

But, we are also capable of using our compassion and our intelligence, our technology and our wealth, to make an abundant and meaningful life for every inhabitant of this planet. To enhance enormously our understanding of the Universe, and to carry us to the stars."

 

From Carl Sagan's Cosmos episode 8, "Journeys in Space and Time". (1980)

[Gray-Wolf]

How do you find these reports GW? There is soooo much on the Met O. website it's hard to figure out where these things are. On what page? What link? Is there one for each month on line? Comes to mind.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/archive/monthly-weather-report

 

There you go Dev!

[knocker]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-48#entry2885341

 

I assume you mean Pine Island Glacier and I think you will find I posted a description of the paper in the Antarctic thread three days ago.

 

Perhaps a better summation leaving out any attempt at point scoring.

 

 

Co-author, Professor Adrian Jenkins, also from BAS, added: "It is not so much the ocean variability, which is modest by comparison with many parts of the ocean, but the extreme sensitivity of the ice shelf to such modest changes in ocean properties that took us by surprise. That sensitivity is a result of a submarine ridge beneath the ice shelf that was only discovered in 2009 when an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle mapped the seabed beneath the ice. These new insights suggest that the recent history of ice shelf melting and thinning has been much more variable than hitherto suspected and susceptible to climate variability driven from the tropics." 

Edited January 5, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

So, it looks like record-breaking cold in parts of the US. That's a great hook for newsmakers to remind us that record-breaking cold doesn't happen nearly as often as record-breaking warmth. It's not hard - all they have to do is show this

 

 

If the blue matched the red, then that might indicate a problem with our understanding of climate change. Occasional deviations, like what we're seeing now, doesn't change that.

 

http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/the-climate-news-hook-about-record-cold.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[VillagePlank]

That chart is misleading.

 

Of course, if the climate is warming (it is) then if you use a dataset that spans the entire climate series (it does) then, of course, given bounded variance in climate (it doesn't get to be -100C, for instance) you will always see charts such as these. It also makes no attempt to show by how much the records have been broken. All it does is show a warming climate, which we already know. Nothing new.

[VillagePlank]

However, what is going on in the climate of North America *is* interesting - in the same way the record heat in Australia is.  A warming arctic perhaps pushing the PFJ southwards more regularly? It's not hard to see why that might be the case since the temperature gradient that produces the jet-stream would certainly be further south as the Arctic warms. This, of course, has more consequences such that in a CO2 induced warming world (where we expect the poles to warm at a faster rate than elsewhere) it could well be the case that the land in the northern hemisphere gets colder. Strange, but possible, but dire if it turned out that way, since most of the developing world is in the southern hemisphere and they would, in this scenario, suffer the consequences of the industrial north.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

That chart is misleading.

 

Of course, if the climate is warming (it is) then if you use a dataset that spans the entire climate series (it does) then, of course, given bounded variance in climate (it doesn't get to be -100C, for instance) you will always see charts such as these. It also makes no attempt to show by how much the records have been broken. All it does is show a warming climate, which we already know. Nothing new.

 

Maybe not but it occasionally saves time to preempt the posting of a weather related cold weather event in the other thread.

Edited January 6, 2014 by knocker

[VillagePlank]

True, I suppose, Knocker.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm struggling with that view sparks? Would we not see the tendency toward the regions once divided by the polar jet becoming more and more homogenous leaving the sub tropical jet as the next line where hot/cold are extreme enough to drive a vigorous jet?

 

From what I've seen of the jet patterns over the past 3 weeks it appears that this is what we have with a huge swathe of the Jet running near straight from the middle east to the eastern flanks of the pacific. the position of this portion of the Jet is pretty far south? From the U.S, Coast into europe the Jet has been far more convoluted and much further north in portions.

 

To me if we shed the polar Jet then we strengthen the boundary of the sub tropical jet leading to it running faster and straighter but with it's position shifted further north ( but well south of the old polar jet position).

Edited January 6, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[VillagePlank]

Yup, GW. http://www.komonews.com/news/17918694.html

 

Which makes the weather in the US even more intriguing.

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

I notice Ken Caldeira says

 

 

A rate of 1.25 miles a year "doesn't sound like much, but that works out to about 18 feet per day," Caldeira said. "If you think about climate zones shifting northward at this rate, you can imagine squirrels keeping up. But what are oak trees going to do?

 

Well we know what Mangroves are doing.

 

http://newsdesk.si.edu/releases/climate-change-spurs-tropical-mangroves-expand-north

[jonboy]

Yup, GW. http://www.komonews.com/news/17918694.html

 

Which makes the weather in the US even more intriguing.

 

14010606_0600.gif

 

That article does not cover the period from 2001 but relates tp 1979 to 2001. I believe that trend has now been reversed. Again no attempt to explain this yet I believe that lower UV levels seen since the start of this cycle 24 is influencing the jet in both hemisphere's ie in the North pushing it South and in the South pushing it North.

Again this would perhaps be better placed in another thread as we are infering this is man's fault!!!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry to disabuse you of that notion J' but part of the reanalysis that J. Francis did also looked at the 'average' position of this new, highly convoluted, Jet and found it's  Shunt north is still ongoing. She also discovered that the 'peaks' of the jet are moving north faster than the 'troughs' effectively 'stretching the jet pattern into ever longer loops ( Alaska to the G.O.M. is one heck of a loop!!!).

 

Whilst we're on the American cold plunge does anyone know which air mass is replacing the displaced cold? I know that persistent N.Pacific High is still in place so is this feeding in air from over the waters of the N.Pacific?

 

EDIT: I suppose, now I think of it, these elongate loops are effectively connecting the sub-tropical to the polar with cold displaced far south and corresponding warm entering the Arctic? instead of this exchanged being a 'stepped' one , with the polar jet forming one step and then the air south of that providing the contrast for the subtropical jet to arise we now see a 'free for all' with extreme warm temps cropping up across the north ( like the scandiwegian ones before Chrimbo?) and cold ones across the south ( G.O.M., Egypt and middle East etc?) and no effective barrier to stop these rapid exchanges?

Edited January 6, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

That article does not cover the period from 2001 but relates tp 1979 to 2001. I believe that trend has now been reversed. Again no attempt to explain this yet I believe that lower UV levels seen since the start of this cycle 24 is influencing the jet in both hemisphere's ie in the North pushing it South and in the South pushing it North.

Again this would perhaps be better placed in another thread as we are infering this is man's fault!!!!!

 

Yet this study has the southern jet stream moving south.

 

http://news.psu.edu/story/142524/2013/01/31/research/ozone-depletion-trumps-greenhouse-gas-increase-jet-stream-shift

[VillagePlank]

Presumably this is testable (at least in North Atlantic) by proxy since the jet-stream is responsible for the creation of low pressure systems, and the NAO is a measure of the difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, if the jet is further north then the NAO would be trending up - due to higher pressure. Here's the NAO,

 

 

On the face of it, no particular trend (perhaps slightly downwards) apart from a large increase in variance (by looking, not by statistical analysis) This confirms GW's contention that the Rossby waves are bigger, but doesn't confirm the idea of the jet moving either north or south. And it looks as if the US weather is indeed inside a rather large Rossby wave.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

Deleted

Edited January 6, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

 

 

Whilst we're on the American cold plunge does anyone know which air mass is replacing the displaced cold? I know that persistent N.Pacific High is still in place so is this feeding in air from over the waters of the N.Pacific?

 

 

 

Current 700mb wind pattern.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-93.24,49.68,497

[Gray-Wolf]

The only thing that might 'kick off' such a perturbation is the rockies? It does appear odd that it's only past the Rockies that we see the messed up Jet (and on into mid Europe)? The other high mountain range that messes with the Jet is the himalaya but this runs 'with the grain' , so to speak, and just splits the jet?

 

EDIT: Thanks for that knocks! I can see a high level feed into the Arctic from Bering and also our little contribution on this side of the pond. doesn't bode well for ice cover over Bering, Okhotsk and Barentsz/Greenland?

 

EDIT:EDIT: Thought I'd seen a similar pattern recently over the U.S.? July 3rd last year looks pretty similar!

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2452&tstamp=

 

so maybe it's not all to do with 'deep cold' ( denser air flowing/busting out) but 'open doors' ( with the Jet being the 'door'). This would mean the current Arctic situation will just plod on once the door is shut again (keeping us in our mild winter) and leaving the U.S. at the mercy of more extremes if this pattern persists ( as our 'troughing' did for 6 years!)

Edited January 6, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[jonboy]

Yet this study has the southern jet stream moving south.

 

http://news.psu.edu/story/142524/2013/01/31/research/ozone-depletion-trumps-greenhouse-gas-increase-jet-stream-shift

 

No the article states this

 

"Understanding the differences between these two forcings is important in predicting what will happen as the ozone hole recovers," she said. "The jet stream is expected to shift back toward the north as ozone is replenished, yet the greenhouse-gas effect could negate this.'

 

And the ozone is in the process of recovery and the jet has moved north in the southern hemisphere

[knocker]

No the article states this

 

"Understanding the differences between these two forcings is important in predicting what will happen as the ozone hole recovers," she said. "The jet stream is expected to shift back toward the north as ozone is replenished, yet the greenhouse-gas effect could negate this.'

 

And the ozone is in the process of recovery and the jet has moved north in the southern hemisphere

 

I was talking currently not predictively. And although ozone is recovering it's going to take quite a while if the latest research is anything to go by.

Edited January 6, 2014 by knocker