Model Output Discussion 12z 10/05/13

[Frosty.]

And just to back up what I said about the latest ensemble mean, the Ecm 00z ens mean shows a significant improvement later with pressure rising to the southwest and the polar front jet well to the north of the BI, and the latest GEFS 00z mean gets better and better which mirrors the op run, FI becomes warm and anticyclonic and there are some lovely looking charts in early June, I really don't think this cool and trough dominated pattern will last much longer, according to the mean it's going to be replaced by warm high pressure beyond the next 10-12 days or so. 

Edited May 23, 2013 by Frosty039

[nitro_deluxe]

Love this thread btw peeps - great work and analysis - we've certainly got our work cut out into the foreseeable!

Chasing blue bits for some not least temps back into double figures..considering today's pap!

Last week in May and it is looking rather unsettled to say the very least. Had a sneaky suspicion we'd pay back for those weeks of drier weather that many experienced earlier on in the season.

Ho hum and all that

[Geordiesnow]

It does look increasingly likely that low pressure will be the dominating feature in next weeks weather, still some uncertainty on how quickly it will push in and where it will end up next week but all the models agree on this for certain. 

 

The signs of some Greenland blocking is now starting to creep its ugly head into the outputs but we got too see if this actually occurs before we start jumping to conclusions. 

 

I also have to add that Gavin wrote off the GFS output and claimed its reputation is ruined and the UKMO is the one to follow when it showed that Azores high ridged in, as it happens, the GFS was indeed correct and that UKMO was totally wrong, just goes to show you can't let your bias affect your judgement of the model output. 

[Purga]

It does look increasingly likely that low pressure will be the dominating feature in next weeks weather, still some uncertainty on how quickly it will push in and where it will end up next week but all the models agree on this for certain. 

 

The signs of some Greenland blocking is now starting to creep its ugly head into the outputs but we got too see if this actually occurs before we start jumping to conclusions. 

 

I also have to add that Gavin wrote off the GFS output and claimed its reputation is ruined and the UKMO is the one to follow when it showed that Azores high ridged in, as it happens, the GFS was indeed correct and that UKMO was totally wrong, just goes to show you can't let your bias affect your judgement of the model output. 

Don't worry, it will be gone by about December

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is neither as warm or as settled as the 00z became but it still shows we are trending in the right direction with less and less cold pooling to the north and more and more high pressure coming into the equation, the 6z brings the driest and sunniest weather to the north and west of the uk but with average temperatures or slightly above at times in sheltered areas but the south and east of the uk is generally less settled but still has some fine and dry spells, the 6z shows signs of trending warmer towards the end of it's run as the azores anticyclone begins to ridge our way. Nobody said that breaking out of the current cool and generally unsettled pattern is going to be easy, but the ens mean trend and met office updates continue to offer an olive branch of hope beyond the next 10-12 days or so.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Frosty039

[049balt]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013052300!!/

 

 

Is something interesting happening around the first week in June?.

[NorthernRab]

I think the problem here Frosty is that all the promise of good weather is always in FI

 

Not really, for Scotland the promise of good weather is just 24 hours away, continuing to at least Sunday. 

[Frosty.]

Amazingly, the latest met office update reads almost like a carbon copy of the Gfs 06z operational run with the north & west of the uk eventually having much more anticyclonic influence than the south and east, this would be a highly unusual situation since the north and west is normally cooler and more unsettled so it would be a major role reversal from the norm, however, even the south and east would have some fine and sunny weather despite being generally more unsettled overall, this was perfectly illustrated on the 6z operational run with high pressure building through northwest britain and then gradually the main high drifts to the north/ne of the BI with a weakness (trough) tending to be more persistent across the southern north sea, so for the usually wet, windy and cool n and w, an increasingly fine and settled further outlook could be yours but there should at least be a brief nationwide spell of fine and pleasantly warm weather during the first week of June before that highly unusual northwest-southeast split evolves.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

This thread getting rather long now so will be closing this in a few minutes to open a new one ready for the 12z runs.

Please hold off any postings until i open the new one.

[phil nw.]

OK new thread now open here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76729-model-output-discussion-12z-230513/

 

locking this one now.