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Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013


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Latest update

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4628-glastonbury-forecast-12-18th-june/

 

Not that much has changed since yesterday, this mornings runs were more positive, however today's GFS 12Hz run was more negative both in terms of the op run and the ensembles, with more rain both this week and a greater chance of a breakdown next weekend.

 

However considering the other runs being more positive and the chance of rain this week being concentrated on Thursday, the risk of a complete mud bath is less than was the case yesterday.

 

If we can get through to Thursday midnight with precipitation being under 10mm and the ground not being too bad, and the forecast for next week does not deteriorate than the mud bath chances will significantly diminish

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Here's some reasonably encouraging site news form my compadre, fellow Glasto worker and beer buddy  paolo999 -- he'll be crewing too (though in a different area than us) and unlike us he got to visit Worthy Farm last Saturday.

 

Which seems too long ago to be of much use you may think, but here's his verdict :

 

This posted by him on the efestivals Weather thread :

 

 

 

If it's any encouragement, the site (as of Saturday) was looking waaay better than 2011.

That year, same day, it was in a dire state. A few build teams soldiering on whilst most had just hunkered down.

This year it was cracked earth in many places, and just a few pools of water from some showers. More will have landed Sunday, but it'll still be in better shape than last time.

If it's just a few bits of rain between now and gates opening, it should be pretty good as a starting point.

 

 

However paolo is out of date on two things :

 

Bad : On most to all recent runs, it looks like a lot of rain could be threatening the area between Thursday and Sunday especially. Details yet to be nailed but I'm not currently optimistic. (And we'll be in Glastonbury (town) from Friday evening though to Sunday morning, before heading onsite on Sunday ... )

Good : starting to look like more synoptic runs (up to and including 18z, which isn't yet featuring in JACKONE's analysis) favour a dry-up next week, with HP becoming somewhat more infuential from the SW? Lets hope it  isn't still too early for this to be completely written off as FI eye-candy ...

 

Paolo has smartphone, I know he checks this forum himself, I may try and persuade him to post site updates. I think he'll be there  a bit ahead of us, on Saturday (22nd).

Edited by William of Walworth
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To echo the setiments of many on here, thank you and well done to those contributing - compelling viewing indeed.

 

I worked before and during the 2008 festival. I was on site the saturday before it began and the weather was a mixture. There was at least one heavy downpour. If I remember correctly, it rained from the Wednesday to Friday morning intermittently but enough to ensure that the ground was muddy.  However, the ground dried very quickly and by Saturday I was out of the wellies back in my trainers for the remainder of the festival.

 

Whatever the weather outcome, I will have an exceptional time at Glastonbury.

 

Keep up the good work!

 

Parm

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Whilst the extent of my weather knowledge is my ability to look at the online BBC forecast, it does currently seem to be saying that the majority of tomorrow's rain is going to hit Devon and Cornwall, with Zomerzet getting away fairly lightly in comparison to earlier forecasts. I'm interested to see what Jackone's update says later...

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Latest update

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4628-glastonbury-forecast-12-18th-june/

 

Not that much has changed since yesterday, this mornings runs were more positive, however today's GFS 12Hz run was more negative both in terms of the op run and the ensembles, with more rain both this week and a greater chance of a breakdown next weekend.

 

However considering the other runs being more positive and the chance of rain this week being concentrated on Thursday, the risk of a complete mud bath is less than was the case yesterday.

 

If we can get through to Thursday midnight with precipitation being under 10mm and the ground not being too bad, and the forecast for next week does not deteriorate than the mud bath chances will significantly diminish

Hi Jackone, been loving your weather updates for years now. An importnat part of my Glastonbry experience, and am, like many others, very grateful for your work.

 

Just the one thing...

 

Having been to Glastonbury since 1997, I do know a bit about how the mud stays/ dries up. With that in mind I do think you are being over cautious regarding the duability of the mud.

 

There is a million (s) pound drainage system that does work wonders. In 2011 for example, it rained all of Friday evening, which caused the whole sight to be muddy on Saturday. However, by Sunday afternoon, the majority of areas were dry and I have pictures of us picnicing in the main field (Pyramid stage). Yes there were still patches of large puddles/ mud in some of the low lying areas, but these are not a problem at all as easily avoided.

 

To conclude, unless we have an extreme amount of rain across the weekend, it will not have much affect (unless topped up loads through the week).

 

Tuesday evening onwards is the real concern.

 

Anyway it sounds like we have some people on sight who can update us up to next week anyway.

 

Hope you don't mind the info...Thanks again!

 

Dan

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Whilst the extent of my weather knowledge is my ability to look at the online BBC forecast, it does currently seem to be saying that the majority of tomorrow's rain is going to hit Devon and Cornwall, with Zomerzet getting away fairly lightly in comparison to earlier forecasts. I'm interested to see what Jackone's update says later...

I am not concerned about Thursdays rain. That's almost a week before everyone has arrived..We seem to be looking further and further back every year..!

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We seem to be looking further and further back every year..!

Such is the nature of the Glasto-goer's weather obsession!

 

I'm not too worried either - as many others have already said, the site dries out very quickly. Sights now firmly set on the news for Wednesday onwards....

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Maybe I have been a bit cautious in relation to the mud situation, however going by today's updates, things looking a bit better. more to come.

 

By the way no problem with anyone giving comments about on-site conditions. This is one area in which my knowledge is not as good as people going to the site, of course this may also be the case with  my forecasts as well, but that is another matter.

 

-------------------------------

 

A favour to ask I have been out today enjoying the weather and I managed to miss the total rainfall to T+144 for the GFS run this morning. Does anyone have it, or a link to it.

Edited by Jackone
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http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4630-glastonbury-forecast-13-19th-june/

 

The latest forecast is now out, and I have tweaked the format to concentrate more on next week, rather than this week in light of comments above and the drainage situation.

 

Also because the rain this week is now forecast to be around 10mm, not the 30-50mm previously expected.

 

Any other tweaks please let me know.

Edited by Jackone
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http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4630-glastonbury-forecast-13-19th-june/

 

The latest forecast is now out, and I have tweaked the format to concentrate more on next week, rather than this week in light of comments above and the drainage situation.

 

Also because the rain this week is now forecast to be around 10mm, not the 30-50mm previously expected.

 

Any other tweaks please let me know.

The latest looks positive, and also you have taken in the factors of the site...It read much more realistically..Like you've been there! Maybe you should come one year?!

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Posted
  • Location: Glastonbury festival, Pilton
  • Location: Glastonbury festival, Pilton

Thanks again Jackone! Always a pleasure reading these forums. Is Glastonbury ever something you'd be interested in attending? If so I propose a donation drive to see if we can get you there next year! Posted Image

Seconded, I'm in. Seems only fair given how much we've all been hanging on your reports for the last few years.

You could even do an exclusive net-weather onsite weather forecast... I'd suggest you just drink too much cider and angel delight about like the rest of us though.

Seconded, I'm in. Seems only fair given how much we've all been hanging on your reports for the last few years.

You could even do an exclusive net-weather onsite weather forecast... I'd suggest you just drink too much cider and angel delight about like the rest of us though.

Wow. The prurience filter is pretty sharp. I didn't type "angel delight" but I didn't think I was especially naughty...

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Been keeping a keen eye here for the past few days and just wanted to say a big thank you to Jackone and other contributors.  As a Glastonbury regular its great to have an idea of what the weather will be like.  I like all the stuff about the ground conditions as it does have an effect on the festival however the main thing is the weather from the Tuesday - Monday.  Also I'd like to echo the get Jackone to Glasto idea, someone making such an effort for the good of festival fans should most certainly attend one day.

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Can I echo other recent comments here and thank you for the amount of time and effort you put in to this - it has become so much of my pre Glastonbury routine, compulsive viewing.

 

And I will be very happy to contribute towards a ticket along with others, very happy indeed.

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.. and the Guardian continues to be lazy and fickle in reporting the Glasto forecast, and also persists in manufacturing 'facts' as it disregards what's actually been said. It seems that the broadsheet press is almost as desperate for a muddy festival season as the tabloids. Edited by Kid A
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Latest update - an it is an improvement all around

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4632-glastonbury-forecast-14-20th-june/

 

Rainfall predictions are now very low with the possible exception of next weekend (29/30 June).

 

By the way for those going to the festival, the Netweather twitter page, will show when the latest forecasts are published, so you can keep informed while you are there.

 

https://twitter.com/Netweather

 

-----------------------------------

 

As for the nice comments about me going to Glastonbury, it is not my scene, however seeing as I have already made it to the Guardian, if my moniker could be put on other media outlets that would be fun.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Hey JACKONE, as ever, your science based updates and thoughts are much appreciated and followed, by me and so many other Glasto bound folk. So majorly big Glastonbury based, (prospectively) cider fulled THANKS ....

 

If you don't fancy making it to the PILTON area itself next year or ever, we could still meet up in the SA postcode area (where I am based like you) at some point off season.

 

Hopefully including a pint ... message me through NW when the nights start to get shorter**, if you're up for it.

 

**after Friday? Hah!

Edited by William of Walworth
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