Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4621-glastonbury-forecast-9-15th-june/

 

Latest blog now out, mixed messages today with less rain now expected over next few days, but perhaps more of a risk of Low Pressures next weekend and maybe into festival week. 

 

I totally agree with AWD, (thanks again for the contributions), above though that Southern and Western areas are likely to be protected from the worst of the conditions, with the Azores High not too far off, certainly this should minimise the rainfall amounts. 

 

Ensembles again look promising for the building of the Azores High, even if the op runs are less welcoming.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

Next full blog will appear tomorrow night, as there is so much volatility in the models at the moment.

 

GFS 00Hz is a bit of a nightmare run, from next weekend onwards there appears a Low Pressure magnet towards Southern UK, if right it would send the wetness/mud bath ratings off the roof.

 

ECM is not exactly settled but at least builds pressure from the South West, and keeps the worst of any rainfall away from Glastonbury.

[AWD]

Ian Fergusson, the local forecaster for the West Country including Glastonbury is now doing snippet forecasts for the run up to the festival. His first thoughts are below;

#GLASTONBURY early indications suggestive of showery/cool/breezy start to festival week; hints of more settled for weekend but uncertain...

[J10]

I can entirely see where Ian is coming from there.

 

No full blog tonight, for reasons mentioned earlier.

 

But a look based on the outputs so far today.

 

GFS Operational Run

 

Both make more of the risk of Low Pressure from the east this week. especially the 12Hz run.The 06hz has total rainfall over the next 6 days of 6mm, while the 12Hz run has closer to 50mm, clearly that has big implications of the ground conditions 

 

 

My guess is the the 50mm is overstating things somewhat as no other run has come close to this level of rainfall, however this doesn't mean we can completely dismiss this run. Both of today's run have low pressure pushing in form the North West for the weekend , this takes a few days to clear east, and rainfall builds up over a couple of days. The High Pressure builds up from the south west is slower than desired, and there remains the potential for further rain for much of the festival. 

 

06Hz progression

 

 

12Hz progression

 

In Summary Very disappointing runs today.

 

GFS Ensembles

 

The Somerset ones are not working today.

 

The 06Hz and the 12Hz ensembles both go with the Low Pressure from the North West for the weekend, this is followed by a slow increase in Pressure from the south west over the Festival week.

 

The ensembles have been rock solid in increasing pressure from the South West, albeit a bit slower than was suggested a few days ago.

 

ECM Operational Run

 

The 00Hz run also makes more of Low Pressure to the east this week, but not quite as much as the GFS run, Low Pressure pushes in from the North West this weekend, before a slow increase in Pressure from the South West during the Festival week, not the best run, but South Western areas largely missing out on the worst of the weather.

 

 

The 12Hz run makes less of the Low Pressure to our east this week, it continues the theme of the Low Pressure pushing in from the North West for next weekend, there is general agreement on this theme. 

 

 

Ratings :- Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but probably settling down over the weekend.Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10 An increased risk of rain this week, especially from GFS, all models go for some level of unsettled weather next weekend.Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.Summary The amount of rain to be expected during this coming week is very much undecided and this could have. a big impact on ground conditions. What now seems more likely is that Low Pressure next weekend is set to give some rainfall next weekend. Big differences between the models thereafter GFS op run not keen in buildings heights, ECM far more positive.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Jackone

[duggyfresh]

Are we due an update this evening Jackone?

[bazzaholtom]

I wanna know who would win in a weather off jackone or Gavin partridge (on twitter)

My money is on Jackone especially if the next update is a sunny one

[DevonStu]

I really need to know if I'm gonna get the posh pair of wellies tomorrow I saw earlier today.....

 

I'm live about 40 mins from site and ground conditions here are fine. Warm winds today has dried everything up a treat and more of the same forecast tomorrow....

[Tornandfrayed]

THis is like one of those thriller films, lots of twists and turns and heavy expectation of the outcome. Hope tonight's episode is a good one!  Really can;t face another mudfest after 2011 !

[William of Walworth]

THis is like one of those thriller films, lots of twists and turns and heavy expectation of the outcome. Hope tonight's episode is a good one!  Really can;t face another mudfest after 2011 !

I could do with a more predictable plot myself. With a happy ending!

[J10]

The latest forecast is now out and it is not good news.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4626-photo-glastonbury-forecast-11-17th-june/

 

This week has become increasingly unsettled in the forecasts over the past couple of days, and some moderate rainfall can be expected. There is the risk of ground saturating rainfall over the next few days, and as a result the chances of a mudbath is far greater than a dustbowl at the moment.

 

Conversely, the weather for the festival itself may not be too bad, with High Pressure edging in from mid next week, but this is getting a little further away than I would like.

 

A lot of this is based on gut feel, and trends and I feel things are going away from us.

[J10]

I really need to know if I'm gonna get the posh pair of wellies tomorrow I saw earlier today.....

 

I'm live about 40 mins from site and ground conditions here are fine. Warm winds today has dried everything up a treat and more of the same forecast tomorrow....

 

That's good to know, if the Glastonbury area can escape until the weekend with dryish conditions then we may just be OK. The worst of the rainfall is most definitely over the next 96 hours, the rain over the weekend probably wouldn't cause a problem, but added to the rain this week, that's where the issue lies.

 

By the way on the site updates are great, especially for the all important ground wetness.

[DevonStu]

That's good to know, if the Glastonbury area can escape until the weekend with dryish conditions then we may just be OK. The worst of the rainfall is most definitely over the next 96 hours, the rain over the weekend probably wouldn't cause a problem, but added to the rain this week, that's where the issue lies.

 

By the way on the site updates are great, especially for the all important ground wetness.

Well all good here at present, hasn't rained since yesterday morning for a few hrs. Looks nice and clear outside at present too....will keep you all informed daily how the good old West Country weather is doing.....

[duggyfresh]

It's surprising how quickly the site dries up. In 2011 it went from raining and mudfest on the Friday to dry as a bone on the Sunday morning, just down to the Saturday afternoon heat and sun. The ground is clay and dries up very quickly.

 

If we have a couple of decent days before the festival, I think we'll be onto a winner. If not, it's only mud, and my main concern is staying dry during the festival, and that sounds pretty promising - right Jackone?

Edited June 17, 2013 by duggyfresh

[Tornandfrayed]

Thanks for the updates Jackone...still in the balance, but looking more favourable for the actual festival...we just need Somerset to miss some of the heavy showers next week and it could be pretty good.  As duggyfresh says, in 2011 on the Friday there was very deep mud and lakes of rain, but Eavis has some fairly good drainage now and has the mud sucked up and bulldozed overnight. THe sun came out and it was a heatwave by Sunday and dry.  Fingers crossed.

[William of Walworth]

My main concern is this coming weekend (Friday 21st/Saturday 22nd/Sunday 23rd).

Edited June 18, 2013 by William of Walworth

[frostypaw]

Last night's ensembles are rather pleasing - very strong support for a good build in pressure after the weekend and into the festival period. Fingers very much crossed that remains. The Azores making it's influence known in the south west at least has been a recurring theme with even the ECMWF supporting it

 

Still far enough to change but lovely to see, it's just what we want

[DevonStu]

Rain held off here last night, currently bit cloudy but quite nice and warm outside...

[Pipine]

I'm pretty hopeful... it sounds like a good forecast to me. As long as its not raining during the festival it will be mainly dry underfoot.. the ground conditions do improve so quickly.

[Kid A]

It's surprising how quickly the site dries up. In 2011 it went from raining and mudfest on the Friday to dry as a bone on the Sunday morning, just down to the Saturday afternoon heat and sun. The ground is clay and dries up very quickly.

 

If we have a couple of decent days before the festival, I think we'll be onto a winner. If not, it's only mud, and my main concern is staying dry during the festival, and that sounds pretty promising - right Jackone?

Hi all. After lurking in this forum for the last 3 Glastos I thought it time to post and to thank Jackone for his great work. Like a lot of other Glasto-goers I obsess about the weather in the run-up, and this thread is always my first stop.

 

I agree with duggyfresh on the above - the site dries out very very quickly. Eavis & co maintain a strict policy in the weeks before of keeping foot and vehicle traffic away from the camping fields and other vulnerable areas as much as possible so as to minimise the 'churn'. The site drains very well, and a bit of sun and a stiff warm breeze (both of which look to be likely after the coming wet weekend) will work wonders. The real enemy is the combination of pre-saturated ground, further rain during the festival, and 135,000 pairs of feet - this was 2011's deadly cocktail.

 

In terms of the state of the ground, bear in mind how dry it was in the weeks leading up to this recent unsettled spell (some of the earlier pics of the site show a lot of dry and deeply-cracked mud) - I think the site will take a lot of rain before it gets anywhere near being saturated. This is a huge contrast to 2011, where it had rained constantly for weeks before.

 

So, a lot can still change but if the current forecast persists I think we're on for a nice one, irrespective of the rain over the next 4 or 5 days.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Kid A

[djwhisky]

Fingers and toes crossed here! From previous experience I know how quickly the site can dry out so hopefully as long as everything carries on the way it's going we could be okay ....

Edited June 18, 2013 by djwhisky

[J10]

There is nothing I would want more in terms of the festival than wall to wall sunshine for the festival and great conditions underfoot, even if it makes my forecast go bust.

 

There is a chance I am being a bit cautious as a few years ago, I made the mistake of not considering pre festival rain beforehand, and only concentrated on the festival itself, and got caught out a bit. There is also a reason why I am have splitting the forecast between ground conditions and actual weather for the festival itself.

 

I will take on board comments, as people going to the festival know far more than ground conditions than I could.

 

There will be a full blog tonight aorund 8-8.30pm, that is about the time ECM finishes and the GEFS ensembles are published.

 

For a bit of fun, I'll go back into my archives and this was my forecast for the 2007 festival issued on the 16th June 2007. [Festival that year was 22-24th June]

The last couple of days have suggested a pattern for the festival, unsettled to start with some rain likely over the Wednesday and Thursday and maybe the Friday, and gradually turning drier as move into the weekend, Will today's charts confirm this or suggest further changes. Wednesday As Wednesday is only 96 hours away, we should be becoming pretty confident of the weather for Wednesday, and this is confirmed by the models, there is low pressure centred over Southern Ireland with pressure around 1000mb, this will certainly give an unsettled day for the UK, with some rainfall likely, looking at the GFS rainfall charts, a band of rain should effect Glastonbury around lunchtime and this is set to give several hours of moderate rain, however this should be replaced with some showers later. The GEFS ensembles charts back up the overall picture both in terms of pressure and rainfall amounts. Thursday The general unsettled theme is continued by the models, but with slight variations with the ECM and UKMO and the GEFS ensemble average chart, maintaining the low pressure over the UK, with the GFS pushing the low pressure further to the SW.  The general picture and GFS rainfall charts would most likely mean a mix of some heavy showers and the chance of more general rain during the day for Glastonbury. Friday The unsettled theme again confirmed by the modules, but again with exact details difficult to pinpoint at the moment, but another unsettled day would be likely with the risk of frontal rain or some heavy showers. I have attached the CAPE forecast (GFS) for the Friday and this indicates a very high risk of thunderstorms for southern parts of the UK, however in terms of this, we are still a very long way off. Saturday Both charts show a transition day with low-pressure pushing away to the east and with high pressure starting to make a move in. However, there is still the risk of showers and the CAPE levels (not shown) are again high giving a risk of thunderstorms, but most GEFS ensemble runs do not support this, so the risk is less than on Friday. However some heavy showers cannot be ruled out. Sunday ECM shows high pressure establishing itself over the UK with the GFS doing this but to a lesser extent, so some uncertainty as regards to the weather but it should be drier than most days of the festival, but with the risk of the odd shower. Temperatures look like being in high teens, maybe hitting the low 20cs in any sunshine.  Summary We are now in the reliable timeframe certainly for the start of the festival, two wet days seems likely for Wednesday and Thursday, whether in the from of frontal rain and heavy showers. Friday and Saturday are less clear and there is still some uncertainty, but there is potential for thunderstorms, especially on the Friday, which can be very hit and miss, it may remain dry, but a deluge is also possible.  Sunday, looks like being the brightest day with only light showers at worst. If you are going to the festival, make certain that you have waterproofs just in case, hopefully you will not need them, bur probably you will, and of course enjoy the festival. The next blog will be done as usual late tomorrow evening. 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Jackone

[DevonStu]

Just a heads up from the West Country. Wall to wall sunshine today with a few clouds but lovely and warm with not a sniff of rain!!!!

Edited June 18, 2013 by DevonStu

[lisa93]

That 2007 forecast makes me shudder, 'twas my first ever glastonbury....baptism of fire that was! Still had a great time though even though the weather was a shocker......please no repeat (although if it is, a good excuse for warm spicy cider by the gallon!) Looking forward to next update jackone (or not in the politest possible way depending on how it's looking, just spied a shocking run on the mod thread!)

[technohead]

Hey guys - I've been an avid follower of this site, and in particular Jackone, for a fair few years but have only just registered and decided to post. I've been updating my mates for many a year on Glastonbury updates (been every year since 1992) but usually with trepidation as usually when I feel brave enough to give good news it all turns pear shaped. Only today did I decide to let it slip about a possible high pressure build into next week making it at least decent for the festival but then I just looked at the latest posts in the forecasting model discussion and saw what I thought looks like a horror story. I understand what FI means but what the hell happened to the models? I'm the opposite of an expert so please be kind, but does anyone have any crumbs of comfort for me?

[Jen Stoodley]

Hello

 

new here, first year at Glastonbury and have been trolling the internet for weather reports and the like, just wanted to say love the work you're doing, shall be checking everyday now until we leave Tuesday night. 

 

all my family live in the west-country and they have said they had a muggy day today.