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Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013


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Hi William

 

I'm hoping without any good reason or information that things take a sudden change and we get a 2010 Glasto scenario (although if I'm honest, I moaned about it being too hot and sunny - couldn;t find any shade !) but, realistically, I will settle for what is currently being predicted and hope the Somerset soil can take the rain and drain off nicely in time for the 27th!  Going to re-proof my goretex though just in case !

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

I'm fine with hot, but 19 C to  21 C and mainly sunny, best of all with little (or no!) rain, and plenty of HP influence from a SW direction, would be best for all I reckon.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

 

 

We went to the laughably named 'Sunrise' Celebration over the (usual) Glasto weekend last year (12 miles away, near Bruton). Even with far fewer people, that was a ridiculously muddy washout disaster zone, with over 25mm-ish of rain falling within 24 hours after the fest had started.

 

 

Brain blip there. Was more like 20 or so CM! in 24 hours. A lot of rain overnight from the Thursday evening to the Friday morning at that festival. I have nightmares of a  repeat, but still reasonably hopeful we won't get one.

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Don't know if I wanna read jackone update today if there is one, my optimism is waning, not helped by today's weather :( I know it's a while yet though, so a sliver of optimism remains! Gaah to glastonbury weather obsession

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Don't know if I wanna read jackone update today if there is one, my optimism is waning, not helped by today's weather Posted Image I know it's a while yet though, so a sliver of optimism remains! Gaah to glastonbury weather obsession

 

Update to follow later. I'll be publishing a mini blog tonight, givein similar info to that in Monday's update.

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Latest Glastonbury blog now published and I am genuinely feeling more optimistic tonight, especially if the ground conditions by next Tuesday are not too bad after this weekends rain which will vary from wet to very wet.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4615-glastonbury-forecast-7-12th-june/

 

I will be updating the blog later after the latest NOAA charts are published tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Thanks JACKONE. I've seen a lot worse signals than you post in this latest update, but still I'm nailbitingly nervous about whether any High Pressure build will actually ,materialise, or whether ti will turn out robust enough to hold off rainy incursions.

 

BUT still time for now for improvements, as well as downward movements ...

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Latest Glastonbury blog now published and I am genuinely feeling more optimistic tonight, especially if the ground conditions by next Tuesday are not too bad after this weekends rain which will vary from wet to very wet.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4615-glastonbury-forecast-7-12th-june/

 

I will be updating the blog later after the latest NOAA charts are published tonight.

Now updated, the latest NOAA shows no North-East progression with the Azores High tonight, in fact it moves further into the Atlantic, however High pressure to the east moves closer.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Will do another more detailed post at the weekend but for now the latest 500mb anomaly chart doesn't look too bad at all, with signs the trough could fade and a "ribbon" of heights could build over or close to SW England;

post-12721-0-67665500-1371101678_thumb.j

Something I mentioned as a possibility in a previous post. It isn't unanimously supported by any means, but it is being tentatively hinted at by some data. Not promising wall to wall sunshine and definetly not promising a heat wave (current temperature indications hint at average or slightly below) but I am hopeful of something better than what the next 7 days hold.

Will go into more detail over the weekend, when maybe, some more positive trends might appear for you festival goers.

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I wouldn't be too concerned about heavy rain this weekend causing a mudbath during the festival. Even in the wettest years the site can dry out very fast with a bit of sun and hundreds of thousands of boots stamping the ground. And to be honest, whilst muddy ground isn't ideal it's nowhere near as much of an issue as heavy rain during the festival, making it generally miserable to be stood around outside watching bands. If we can avoid this I'll be happy.

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Folks

 

I am addicted to this site even though I have trouble understanding Ian Macaskill and so I just want to say thanks it is fascinating to try and understand. Keep up the good work in the meantime...

 

Wellies yes or no

Poncho yes or no

Sunscreen yes or no

 

It is yes to all isn't it ?

 

Love and tea

 

David

 

PS  Does one of you have that nice food stall up at the Park ?

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How dare they call me a nerd, just because half my time of a weather forum and have made 15,000 posts, actually they have a point. Posted Image

 

That has really made my day. I really can't believe that.

 

There will be no full update tonight they do take a while, and the next one will be tomorrow.

 

However - if I was basing one on tonight.

 

There remains a general theme of pressure building up from the south, however next week looks a bit more unsettled tonight than was the case yesterday, according to models and ensembles alike, precipitation totals are forecast to be 25mm in the Glastonbury area over the next 6 days.

 

There is always a danger that while the upper charts continue to show a trough over the UK, then the possibility of the Azores High dominating is reduced. The latest upper charts from NOAA has been released and not that much change from recent days alas.

Edited by Jackone
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So, warm clothes, cool clothes, waterproofs and wellies!  Increased weight to haul through the Somerset countrysidePosted Image  Still, it would appear that so far we aren't looking at a 2011 again.  2009 was about right conditions wise, bit of rain thursday and friday, then friday afternoon - sunday sunny with a few clouds.  Mud dried up superfast and not too hot to wake up in a boiling hot nylon tent. 

 

Hoping tomorrow's forecasts show the Azores HP pushing its way north!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

A little hope for you lot from the Met Office this morning;

"UKMO favours slightly higher prob of drier/warmer later June based on MOGREPS, NCEP & JMA consensus. We'll see!"

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Latest blog now out, a bit of a mixed summary,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189-netweather-community-blog/

 

The ECM 216/240 runs put a dampener of things somewhat, further updates to the blog to follow, GEFS ensembles a bit late tonight.

 

GEFS ensembles now out, the slow theme of rising pressure to the SW continues, a few LPs on the way though.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Moderately positive, maybe even excellently so.

 

But we still have a big week to come for .... 'changes' ... in either direction  ....

 

<bites fingernails a lot. But washout currently on the unlikely side. For now!>

Edited by William of Walworth
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Update based on 00Hz today, this week - risk of rain from and possible plume from east reduced. Next weekend GFS makes more of feature emphasised last night by ECM, ECM conversely makes less of it than last night, However they both have buckles in NW flow thereafter meaning Low Pressure cells are further south than they would otherwise be.

 

Examples

 

This shows a ridging Azores High giving a NW flow for SW areas, which should mean mostly dry conditions.

post-213-0-74278500-1371288004_thumb.jpg

This shows the Azores High being edged or flattened down by the Jet to the North, so changeable over the UK, but probably not too bad conditions for SW areas.

post-213-0-45519900-1371287999_thumb.jpg

 

This shows a real "buckle" in the flow, a LP to the south, which most likely would be a a direct hit for southern areas, not good news 1 day before the festival.

post-213-0-92998900-1371287991_thumb.jpg

 

Summary

 

Despite ensembles continuing to go with the Azores High building theme, Today's op GFS run 06Hz very disappointing from T+240 onwards, the models continue to vary but if there exact models are published on the 12Hz, then the wetness ratings would be worsened.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I still see reason for tentitive optimism regarding this years festival. Like I said before, not promising wall to wall sunshine and definetly not suggesting high temperatures but something drier than recent years is plausible.

The 500mb anomaly charts below;

post-12721-0-78883700-1371291083_thumb.j

along with the NAEFS mean charts towards months end;

post-12721-0-30753000-1371291120_thumb.jpost-12721-0-81859700-1371291127_thumb.j

all agree on some form of mid Atlantic ridge developing, with a trough likely towards the north. Whilst this would mean subdued temperatures in a fresh north westerly airflow, it would also suggest the drier conditions to be more over the South West of the UK with the wetter conditions reserved for more northern parts of the UK.

The CFS v2 outlook showing below average rainfall over the south and west come the period in question too;

post-12721-0-32263100-1371291289_thumb.j

with the NAEFS forecasting the Jet Stream to considerably weaken;

post-12721-0-81814900-1371291336_thumb.j

this should help the already close by Azores HP ridge further north into the Atlantic and influence the weather at Glastonbury that little bit more than it is currently doing.

That's my thoughts on it anyway.

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