Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for all your work once more JACKONE.

 

I understand why you're including trends for July as well as for June, given that the festival occupies the very last days of the June and 'going home Monday' is Monday 1st July. But surely June trends are much more likely to be influential?

 

I'm keeping a close eye on the model output discussion forum as well as on this, and I'm fervantly hoping that any breakdown in this week's summery conditions (suggested right now for sometime early? next week), will be temporary.

[duggyfresh]

When's the next update Jackone?

[William of Walworth]

Don't too get unrealistically and bonkersly happy folks, about the latest chat on the model output discussion thread.

 

After all, that might well be  a complete pile of rubbish.

 

FI, and that.

 

But signals for late June might be  looking ....reasonable?

Edited June 6, 2013 by William of Walworth

[J10]

Next update will be tomorrow.

 

GFS will soon be coming into range and I'd more be very happy if people were to post GFS for the festival period on here

 

Clearly it will turn unsettled from the west next week, but is it a blip or a new pattern, I hope/think that my friend Mr Azores High will help this year.

[William of Walworth]

 

 

Clearly it will turn unsettled from the west next week, but is it a blip or a new pattern, I hope/think that my friend Mr Azores High will help this year.

We so much want this, and one or two of us are even daring to start to hope ...

 

I've been looking at the signals myself JACK and .... ?????

[jeffie]

Tenterhooks........

[crowcrow]

Much biting of nails is going on right now - just hoping we can have some weather similar to that that we have in London right now - warm, bit of a breeze, nice and dry.

 

Fingers crossed and thanks again Jackone - your posts are part of the glasto traditions!

[J10]

Forecast under construction - due for publishing aorund 7.30-8pm.

 

Link will appear here

[AWD]

I think you Glastonbury goers ought to be optimistic as things stand.

Long way to go and a lot could change obviously, but there are some decent signs that the HP to the SW could start to influence our weather in the 10 - 15 day timeframe, especially so over the Glastonbury area.

Don't expect a heat wave at this stage, but I would definetly favour a decent change of something settled and relatively warm.

[J10]

Latest forecast now out, unfortunately not looking as promising as recent forecasts have suggested, however GFS suggesting the Azores High making more a presence felt is an encouraging sign. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4611-glastonbury-forecast-6-7th-june/

[William of Walworth]

I, and all festivalgoers, will badly want future runs over coming days to strengthen that possible trend of HP ridging from the SW.

 

I guess it's still pretty difficult right now to make an educated guess at how likely this is to happen?

[jonf]

Jackone - will we see more frequent weather updates soon? I think last year you gave daily updates about 2-3 weeks before the festival... 

[Fussy Onion]

Thanks as always Jackone. I couldn't go to the festival this year but still can't help watching this topic and hoping for everyone else that the end of June will be a repeat of the sunfest that was Glastonbury 2010. 

[J10]

Jackone - will we see more frequent weather updates soon? I think last year you gave daily updates about 2-3 weeks before the festival... 

 

 

I can't do an update on Tuesday, away on a course with work, but will start doing daily updates from Wednesday as GFS comes into T+384 range,

 

However an appeal, if people could post operational charts of GFS on here for the festival period that would be appreciated, especially the 00 and 18Hz runs. 

 

As an example GFS 12Hz run

 

 If possible ensembles for the Wiltshire area.

 

Please don't be afraid to post any comment on here or to provide any chart, whether it shows heatwave, mud bath, washout or snowy festival.

Edited June 9, 2013 by Jackone

[AWD]

There are definetly positives to take from this mornings data for those of you heading down to Worthy Farm in a couple of weeks. The updated 500mb anomaly charts show some good positive heights to our west;

Whilst there is also a trough shown there, without fuel this would fade and I would expect the heights to the west and east of us to merge and provide an opportunity for a settled period of weather later in the month.

The GEFS for Somerset show a reduction in rainfall scenarios within it's final frames;

With a modest stabilisation of SLP values too;

Something drier possible there?

The NAEFS outlook shows something similiar too, with signs of the Jet Stream retreating northwards and the Azores HP cell to our South West having more of a say on our weather;

The MJO also progressing into phase 6 and possible phase 7 which are both precursors to something more settled eventually;

So all in all, positive signs I would say. As ever with long range forecasting, things can change, but the favourable trend currently is for something more settled than unsettled over the south.

[duggyfresh]

There are definetly positives to take from this mornings data for those of you heading down to Worthy Farm in a couple of weeks. The updated 500mb anomaly charts show some good positive heights to our west;

image.jpg

Whilst there is also a trough shown there, without fuel this would fade and I would expect the heights to the west and east of us to merge and provide an opportunity for a settled period of weather later in the month.

The GEFS for Somerset show a reduction in rainfall scenarios within it's final frames;

image.jpg

With a modest stabilisation of SLP values too;

image.jpg

Something drier possible there?

The NAEFS outlook shows something similiar too, with signs of the Jet Stream retreating northwards and the Azores HP cell to our South West having more of a say on our weather;

image.jpgimage.jpg

The MJO also progressing into phase 6 and possible phase 7 which are both precursors to something more settled eventually;

image.jpgimage.jpg

So all in all, positive signs I would say. As ever with long range forecasting, things can change, but the favourable trend currently is for something more settled than unsettled over the south.

 

Thanks AWD - nice to see some positives there!

[J10]

Many thanks too have AWD on board offering such great analysis.also for politely correcting me on my geography knowledge, ensembles for Somerset would be far more useful tahn Wiltshire.

Edited June 10, 2013 by Jackone

[William of Walworth]

Thanks a ciderbusload AWD. Hope you're picking up on a real rather than transient trend, and that HP influence confirms (maybe even strengthens?) and doesn't fade away too much .... patience is compulsory for us pre-Glasto weather watchers/worriers sadly. Yes, it's nervous times right now for us!

 

And thanks JACKONE for finding time to do all this aas well. Looking forward to the updates, especially if they're positive-ish! but of course we need to keep realistic and accept less positive evidence too ... whichever, I've no doubt there;ll be plenty of chopping and changing (certainly in the synoptic positioning and detail) over coming days ....

Edited June 10, 2013 by William of Walworth

[J10]

A few charts from GFS 12hz tonight.

 

 

At 240-312-384

 

Signs of the Azores High attempting to ridge in to help us, however still the possibility of it staying too far to the South West allowing low pressure systems in at times.but less of a risk of this for SW areas,

 

GEFS ensembles

 

The first ensembles chart show the 1020mb covering all of Southern UK, always a good sign, it is oft mentioned in the MOD thread that is no guarantee of good weather it isn't but a better chance of good weather if you have than say 990mb. It does show an up and down nature, with settled periods, probably ridges from the South west and less settled periods, at this stage tentative signs of pressure rising as we move in the Glastonbury window.

 

The precipitation ensembles shown some rain at times, more especially this coming weekend, but no real prolonged wet weather.

 

two final things -

 

ECM

 

ECM showing pressure rising from the SW towards the end of its run, however if correct in its entirety, it would be very unsettled before this.

 

Finally NOAA upper chart

 

Firstly 6-10 day

 

Firstly 8-14 day

 

The 6-10 one shows a squeezed trough over the UK, and the 8-14 day one shows pressure thinning out, with a NW flow setting in, while this isn't a hot pattern hints of ridges from the SW. A Couple of days ago, both the 6-10 and 8-14 showed the trough over the UK, so signs of improvement as time goes on, we would also like to see further ridging of the HP towards the UK.

 

In essence I tend to agree with 4WD post earlier.

Edited June 10, 2013 by Jackone

[William of Walworth]

Frustrating for now! Although the rain ensembles don't look too bad overall?

Edited June 10, 2013 by William of Walworth

[J10]

Frustrating for now! Although the rain ensembles don't look too bad overall?

 

Looking a lot better than 2012 !!!!

 

Dependent on which model you believe, chance of some heavy rain over the next weekend, hopefully the recent dry weather should be able to take this, of course the amount of rain would impact on this.

 

For reasons outlined above next update will be Wednesday, I still haven't decided if this will be a full blog or just a update in this thread, which is likely to be quite detailed, in any case, there will be links from here.

Edited June 10, 2013 by Jackone

[lisa93]

Thanks jackone and awd, your forecasts are really valued (even if they aren't wall to wall sunshine, they help with the packing!) Here's to some (hopefully) upgrades as we get nearer!

[AWD]

Just a quick one from me. The NWP output is barely within the Glastonbury time period, let alone anywhere near the reliable so don't worry about the latest NWP output or what you read in the MOD thread just yet.

Two things really.

1. Although there is still a reasonable amount of data to suggest that the Glastonbury period could favour a more settled regime at this stage, the next 10 days or so do look rather unsettled and wet for all of us. Initially the south looked to get away with much in the way of meaningful rainfall but over the last 48 hours or so this has deteriated and some heavy rainfall can now be expected over the Glastonbury area on the run up to the festival. A look at the next 8/9 days accumulative totals being shown by the GFS currently;

Show the Somerset area approaching the 50mm mark. What affect this will have on ground conditions I do not know but maybe be prepared for some "muddy" ground.

To balance that out, it's worth noting that the GFS Op was one of the wetter most members in it's final frames;

with many more members showing something a little drier than the Operational.

The CFS rainfall anomalies for the Glastonbury period show the UK, inparticularly the south and west to receive below average rainfall amounts;

Hinted at by the orange colour over the UK. The latest NAEFS output maintains the theme of moving the trough and Jet Stream that bit further north allowing the Azores ridge to approach southern and western England;

And finally the overnight EC monthly output updated last night. Whilst the only ones available to us are for Birmingham, this shouldn't be an issue when forecasting at this timescale. A clear downward trend is evident here;

I would imagine that areas further south might fair even better there, with some below average readings shown.

So not much had really changed since my post last night. The lead up to Glastonbury 2013 looking decidedly unsettled and wet. What affect this will have on ground conditions I don't know.

Glastonbury itself could be OK. Some reasonable evidence to suggest something drier is possible. Worth noting though that there is NO evidence whatsoever to suggest above average temperatures. All data and the Met Office outlook suggest average or below average temperatures and I agree with this. But I doubt whether you will mind to much on that front hey?!

And finally, always nice to have the backing (broadly) of the professionals. This is from Ian Fergusson;

"UKMO favour a N/NW to S/SE split into later June; i.e. some pressure rise in S, so a somewhat less pessimistic view...for now!"

Edited June 11, 2013 by AWD

[Tornandfrayed]

Many thanks to those of you who are posting these predictions...it's becoming compulsive viewing.  At the moment I'm praying the high pressure pushes up to the South West at least in time for the festival.  It is worrying that there is likely to be a lot of rain in the run up as it doesn;t take Glastonbury long to become a mud bath.  Eavis has much improved the drainage, but at the end of the day the whole festival is in a valley and with 150,000 people trudging around as well as all the various vehicles it could still be a mess even with good weather from the Friday.  I altered my plans slightly in that I'm now arriving on the Thursday morning rather than wednesday lunchtime.  Hoping I will have one day less of mud!

[William of Walworth]

Hi Tornandfrayed, I'm sure JACKONE/AWD will correct me if necessary but I read the above as predicting (at this stage) any heavier rain to be ahead of the festival, eg that deeply blue first chart in AWD's post relates to Weds 19th June no?

 

Heavy rain onsite ahead of the festival clearly isn't great at all, but it's been dry imn the SW for a long time up til now, so the ground can take it to some extent at least,. with crew only on site so far (and most crew don't turn up til we do -- we're also crew -- around ie w/e of Sat 22nd June. 

 

Anyway, Weds 19th June is still 8 days away and we may yet see 'downgrades' to any downpours for next week

 

(Or rain-upgrades too in worst case scenarios, but I'm refusing to think about that for now!).

 

AWD still seems to be suggesting drier, as we get towards the fest opening day itself. A lot also depends on future updates over future days from him and JACKONE, obvs.

 

We remain fingers very-crossed, but as JACKONE reminded me and quite right, things are nowhere near as bad as June 2012.

 

We went to the laughably named 'Sunrise' Celebration over the (usual) Glasto weekend last year (12 miles away, near Bruton). Even with far fewer people, that was a ridiculously muddy washout disaster zone, with over 25mm-ish of rain falling within 24 hours after the fest had started.

 

I'm not yet seeing anything nearly so bad threatened for Glastonbury this year, but yes too early to say I know ...

Edited June 11, 2013 by William of Walworth