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Well we come upon the same charts every year giving out the same differing responses, so we're probably no closer to knowing what the outcome is this summer... however as pessimistic as it sounds, with the last few summers, I've learnt that you should expect the worst and salvage what positivity you can out of the situation. I therefore, until we get a decent string of average summers, expect a cool wet summer in general. Not very scientific, but as of yet, not being proved wrong, as the pattern of dry Springs and presumably cool, wet summers is set to continue.. as there is no real evidence as yet pointing to the contrary. (if something hasn't changed then why change an opinion on it?_

 

id like, really like, to say 'your wrong!', but i think your exactly right there. Expect the worst overall and make the most of the decent few days we get in a cool-wet-and probably windy summer ahead. Looking back over recent years, the best change of settled conditions seem to be appearing through spring - and sometimes, just sometimes, very late in the summer or very early in autumn (late sept - early oct). Having said that, i hope were both way off the mark and we have a 2003 style summer!

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Last spring wasn't dry - far from it!It might not be a first class summer but can take comfort in knowing - surely it can't be worse than last year!

In terms of temperatures, it very much could be...There have been over 100 summers cooler than the coolest of the last 5 years (2011). In fact, 1985-1988 had four consecutive summers that were below the supposed 'cool' summer of 2011.
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Last spring wasn't dry - far from it!It might not be a first class summer but can take comfort in knowing - surely it can't be worse than last year!

 

Yes last Spring ended up very wet for the period March to April that`s for sure but it didn`t start that way.In fact march 2012 was very dry if we recall.

Compare March`s rainfall to April and May 2012.

 

post-2026-0-70963900-1367595865_thumb.gipost-2026-0-68713300-1367595877_thumb.gipost-2026-0-62236400-1367595897_thumb.gi

 

March saw many parts of the UK receive less than 25% of the normal rainfall wheras April completely switched with large areas suffering over twice as much rainfall-notice how dry it was in the far north west.May came in close to normal as it happened so it was the horrendous April that boosted the Spring anomalous  total overall.

of course this was just a taster to the soggy Summer of 2012-the rainfall anomaly chart tells the story

post-2026-0-61687700-1367596291_thumb.gi

Note again the dry north west-reflecting the change synoptics with the jet running further south and anomalous heights further north -low after low running across the south of the UK.

It`s interesting to look overall at the change in the Summer Atlantic upper air pattern since the the new century.

I done a quick check on the 500hPa anomalies comparing the season in the years 1988-1999 and 2000-2011

post-2026-0-14489900-1367596649_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-38071000-1367596636_thumb.pn

 

The biggest change is the tendency more Summer high pressure around Greenland driving the storm track(PFJ) further south towards the UK.Last year we got particularly unlucky with a mean fairly flat jet running across the south of the UK  with little ridging in the relentless pattern it seemed.

I can understand members expectations of a good Summer being low it seems in view of these pattern changes but at least so far this year the jet has shown some willingness to ridge north at times to permit some decent fine weather even if not especially warm as yet.

Let`s hope the current low heights over Greenland can be around when it matters through Summer.

At least then with a more +ive NAO we stand a chance of a more typical UK Summer-compared to 2012 that would be acceptable to me.

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That's a fair point.  I do think that having had 2 below average summers amongst the average summers we are due for a summer with above average sunshine here.  That doesn't mean we'll get it though!

 

I'm surprised at 2011 - it's probably selective memory, but I would always rate 2010 much more highly.  I suppose 2011 was fairly nondescript throughout, and while June 2010 was exceptionally good, perhaps July and August were quite a bit worse than 2011.  After last year I would be happy with a repeat of any of the years you mention although would probably prefer a 2010 style summer with one exceptional month rather than 3 average months.  

 

There definitely seems to have been a trend for spring and early summer to have been better in recent years as you suggest - even last year we had a decent spell in May despite the appalling June.  2007 was an exception with August being the best month of a bad bunch.  I have young children, so will be hoping to have some decent weather during the school holidays in July and August. 

 

I am not greedy a June of 2010, followed by a July of 2006 and August of 1995 would do very nicely!!!!

 

Just to further prove our point of early summer being better if we were to take the May-August period as a whole,

 

2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010 saw above average sun.

 

If we were to take this further, taking May-July for the last couple of years

2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw above average sun.

 

So definitely Augusts have been letting the side down in the past decade (or so), I think we knew that but the extent this is having on the stats is very surprising.

Edited by Jackone
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Hopefully we will see the current charts in Summer proper but at least its not like last year when we used up all the high pressure in March only for it to be mostly absent all Summer.

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I'm encouraged by the charts at the minute, we're seeing pretty 'traditional' charts for May with consistent ridging of high pressure followed by brief unsettled interludes- this hasn't happened a lot in recent years with a tendency for blocking in spring which has delivered feast or famine, as shown by the awful April 2012 following on from the exceptionally warm April of the previous year.

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Nothing alarming showing up at all which would make me concerned given that the first half of June is not that far away. Just a typical north south split with high pressure continuing to ridge close enough to give some decent dry spells. All places should see some rain to dampen the gardens this week so all in all a very average May outlook.

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Had a look at some of the summer CET data.

Below is a graph of the June, July, August mean anomaly (blue) against the average of all the years, and the 10 year average anomaly(red).

 

post-6901-0-42023800-1367749832_thumb.jp

 

What was interesting, was that the highest 10 year positive anomaly before 2003 occurred in 1781, with a 10 year mean of +0.77C.

There was a run of 4 very good summers then, from 1778-1781, with mean summer CETs of 16.5C, 16.6C, 16.2C and 17.0C respectively. During that period, there was 6 months above 17C, 3 in July and 3 in August, with the only summer month below average being June 1780 (-0.12C).

1781 was the warmest summer on record at that time with, June 16.2C (+1.9), July 17.4C (+1.4) and August 17.3C (+1.9).

 

 

For the present, the 10 year mean summer CET anomaly has been above 0.5C since 1997. This year, we'll dip below +0.5C if we record a summer mean of less than 16.7C.

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Even last summer had some very warm days esp mid august, remember walking in the countryside and it was roasting, had to pop into several pubs for refreshments, i do wonder if those wishing for the horrendous heat of July 2006 have life's of leisure and don't partake in strenuous activities .

Edited by Eugene
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Even last summer had some very warm days esp mid august, remember walking in the countryside and it was roasting, had to pop into several pubs for refreshments, i do wonder if those wishing for the horrendous heat of July 2006 have life's of leisure and don't partake in strenuous activities .

Any excuse Eugene..Posted Image

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There was indeed some good weather last August- lucky for me it timed in with a walking trip in the Lake District. Couldn't believe my luck as was expecting some horrid conditions!

And there was nowt 'horrendous' about July 2006 - it was a perfect summer month!

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I am going for a hot Summer, reason being Ken Ring, the long range weather forecaster from New Zealand has been right more often than he has been wrong.

 

http://www.independent.ie/weather/weather-guru-ken-ring-says-were-in-for-a-summer-scorcher-28953806.html

 

Well he's certainly got the wet Spring wrong so far.. . And it would't take much to be a warmer summer than last year would it.. But we shall see.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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A 1995 summer would be ideal, but the likelihood of that happening, I don't know. I still think it'll be a 2006/2010 type summer. 

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I just want lots of very warm days this year, and in July that shouldnt be asking too much given that the mobile westerly of the coming week would still produce the low to mid 20s in the height of summer. Of course a northerly can still feel very cool such as July 2011 so i'm hoping we avoid one of those this year.

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Guest pjl20101

Have to say the recent artcle in the daily star is an unsubstantiated claim that we are going to have one of the coldest Mays followed by a wet June. Have they seen the output from the recent seasonal model output? I don't think so.

Rant over.

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Have to say the recent artcle in the daily star is an unsubstantiated claim that we are going to have one of the coldest Mays followed by a wet June. Have they seen the output from the recent seasonal model output? I don't think so.Rant over.

 

It's not a proper newspaper - even if May did cool down....it'd be brief. Owned by the same group as the Daily Express. 

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I dont, july 20th and 21st were horrendous, especially 21st (Sat) very similar to child of nadine on 24th-25th Sep '12, worst ever

 

I remember going into Birmingham City Centre on a day off from work, to hand a parcel to my Dad - we were DRENCHED!! I was using plastic bags, brollies, ANYTHING to shelter from the rain! 

 

2012 was the re-incarnation of 2007.....perhaps 2013 is the re-incarnation of 2008 which was not bad.

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