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The latest CFS is very encouraging for a decent late spring and early summer which is perfect as we are now coming into the time when the days are there longest and the sun is getting to its strongest

 

May

 

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June

 

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July

 

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For those seeking a settled period red is what you want to see over the UK for those after unsettled weather its blue you want to see

 

One thing for certain this is a complete reversal from 12 months ago

 

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Notice how the high starts over us, then slowly but still maintaining its strength drifts off into the continent, if we saw this a little bit further south than Scandi, surely we would perhaps see record breaking heat being dragged up from the Central Med and Spain on its Southern and Western flank? Sooo hope this comes to fruition, its been such an awfully long time since we have seen charts like these! Very 2006 esque.

Think I might get the beers ready...

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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But... what did they show a month ago? I remember checking up on the upcoming June's pattern back in March and feeling most disappointed to see 120% average rainfall and slightly below average temps... Long way to go yet but certainly encouraging!

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If this comes true, this will be VERY good news. As mentioned, a 2006 esque vibe to it. Yet again, I remember April and early May being crap in the Midlands weatherwise, and it soon picked up, June was like an oven!

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The latest CFS is very encouraging for a decent late spring and early summer which is perfect as we are now coming into the time when the days are there longest and the sun is getting to its strongest

 

May

 

Posted Image

 

June

 

Posted Image

 

July

 

Posted Image

 

For those seeking a settled period red is what you want to see over the UK for those after unsettled weather its blue you want to see

 

One thing for certain this is a complete reversal from 12 months ago

 

Posted Image

Sorry, daft question coming........I like and can understand the red, and pleased there's no big blue blobs, but what does the white area over the south east  in June mean?

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Sorry, daft question coming........I like and can understand the red, and pleased there's no big blue blobs, but what does the white area over the south east  in June mean?

 

Average pressure expected. The main blocking area of high presure is likley to be over Scandinavia with southern England closer to low pressure, but not necessarily unsettled.

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A mean mid latitude high has been a regular occurrence on those CFS maps since around February. It's one of the reasons I'm so bullish of a drier and warmer than average summer season. The last GLOSEA4 model run which I looked at also pointed to the same mid latitude feature.

 

Those CFS charts have been an extremely useful tool over the past 12-18 months; they picked out last summer's deluge and the extremely cold March we experienced this year.

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Hopefully we could be seeing a repeat of 2006. That forecast fits it exactly bang on, as i do remember a brief interlude of a thundery breakdown at the end of June 2006, then hotting up even further again afterwards into July.

doesnt look anything like summer 2006?

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The 18z wants to bring some very cold Arctic air in (for the time of year) resulting in frequent night frosts but also sunny days! If you believe it...

Edited by SP1986
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Guest pjl20101

We need matt Hugo and Ian Ferguson to be posting on this thread as soon as really. It would be helpful to have analysis from people who are virtual professionals at their jobs and to appreciate their insights too.

Back to topic and I am wondering judging by QBO data that 2006, 1997, 1990, 1985, 1980, 1975, 1971, 1966, 1961, 1955 and 2008 may enter the fray of analogues as well as 1978 and 1962 that snow king has alluded us to?

QBO is a very good instrument for the summer as I believe the extremely easterly event last year ruined our summer and made the trough over us deeper than usual.

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We need matt Hugo and Ian Ferguson to be posting on this thread as soon as really. It would be helpful to have analysis from people who are virtual professionals at their jobs and to appreciate their insights too.Back to topic and I am wondering judging by QBO data that 2006, 1997, 1990, 1985, 1980, 1975, 1971, 1966, 1961, 1955 and 2008 may enter the fray of analogues as well as 1978 and 1962 that snow king has alluded us to?QBO is a very good instrument for the summer as I believe the extremely easterly event last year ruined our summer and made the trough over us deeper than usual.

 

No professional will come and talk about that as theres little proof that pattern matching to previous years works and long-range forecasting itself is experimental at best.

 

Trying to predict even the beginning of summer at 4½ weeks out would be difficult enough. The best at this range is to look at how things are trending and even then its a bit of a minefield.

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Its fair to say reef as I prefer a westerly based QBO summer on the whole reef although there have been rubbish ones such as 1988, 1985, to an extent 2008 etc. Suppose its down to the other analogue listings of other forecasting components like with what summer blizzard has mentioned.

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Well at the moment things are looking better. The jet stream back in the right place last year it switched south at the end of March and stayed there. Nothing to say it won't switch back but we're due a drier summer and a little warmth.

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It will be an improvement on 2012 easily

 

That's not going to be too difficult given summer 2012 was as extreme as summer 1976 but for the wrong reasons...  June 2012 was by far the wettest since at least 1910 if the Met Office data is to be believed, and the difference is even more notable in Wales:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/

 

The summer of 2012 as a whole is only marginally behind 1912 as the second wettest in the series and wettest for 100 years.  We also had the lowest sunshine levels since 1988 in the UK, and here in Wales, the lowest since at least 1980 and possibly 1954.

 

The sunshine statistics for Wales are interesting as we have only had 2 summers with above average sunshine since 1999: 2005 and 2006.  So, statistically at least, it would be well overdue to have some sunshine this summer.  A repeat of the last couple of days with slightly higher temperature values would be very welcome!

 

Whatever we end up with this year, it must surely be better than last year in my location.  Having said that, who would have thought in April 2007 that we'd have a warmer April just 4 years later?  

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Very well said virtualsphere. June 2012 has to be the worst June I have ever experienced. In the Midlands, I remember FIVE nice days - three of them I was ill in bed with a virus that had me ill for two weeks.

 

It was nothing but rain, rain and more rain. I remember coming home from work, and it was VERY unsually cool - shivered walking home. We had a huge problem with slugs in the back garden, as the grass was that saturated it was like a marsh! 

 

Summer 2012 will be memorable for the wrong reasons.

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