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I'd take this year over last year by far. I guess it all depends on location. In the spring when we had that cold easterly for ages in March and April it was pretty sunny in the west. May seemed pretty normal, with a mixture of warm sunny days and wet miserable ones. So far June has been pretty ordinary as well, with a good start and what looks like a good end to come too.

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Gawd almighty people complaining. June hasn't been that bad..

Nah I don't get it either - warm,dry and just,well,summery, at least around here. Personally it's not for me but I can't see why others are unhappy.

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what is late in the year?

to get to almost july and have had no notable convective type period,

 

....*he says as there is a torrential shower going on now outside as I type*Posted Image

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do you ever not bang on about climate/ice/global warming/other climatic death stuff and err just enjoy life a bit and all the really fantastic other stuff the world and its wonders have to hold in the here and now? coz patterns aside, nothing is proven that we are all about to die soon because of it.

 

 

and I love nature, support it and fully believe we should live in harmony with it not against it, but plllleeeaseee, stop harping on and ramming it down our throats.

 

I " Bang on" about plenty of other stuff in it's relevant place? So, divulge your wisdom on the subject of climate shift/ What D'ya know? What was the latest paper you digested and what were it's projections for the next 80yrs?

 

I would guess that you flat out rejected the findings and don't give a flying 'cause you'll not be here in 80yrs?

 

I have children and 6 years of blighted summer HAS made a difference to them when i compare it to my childhood. Last year we could hunt no grasshoppers due to the weather and this year their tadpoles/spawn were frozen solid in their pond.

 

To me ( and many others) it appear plain, the climate is changing and the rapid changes in the Arctic ( with the added energy this brings into the system) must show impact.

 

The fact that I posted as much in Nov and predicted/hope-cast that the jet position would be altered this year is not mere coincidence.

 

No I cannot predict the day by day Summer weather but i believe I am close enough to the facts to be able 'see' what must happen because of them.

 

Again, the jet appears to have moved, both here and across the U.S. (and so probably downstream of us to?) .I believe the reverberations from the energy placed into the atmosphere last Aug/Sept/Oct over the Arctic ocean ( and then the 'odd' energy released throughout the 'crackopalypse event in Feb?) are, in part, responsible for this. 

 

The worry is ice is now melting again and so any 'residual' from last year is now going to be amplified by the new input (like a swing winding down suddenly getting a new push?).

 

Anyhow we have seen a 'changed pattern' to the placing of the weather extremes across our hemisphere and that includes the jet shuffling across us taking it's 'trough' with it. July will see H.P. dominant and most all L.P.'s will head NE toward Norway leaving the SE of the UK with some 'summer' weather and the rest , barring NW Scotland, faring a lot better with the month than they have over the past 6 years with good multiple day 'warm dry,sunny breaks for all of us!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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GW you know you're not supposed to mix climate and weather in the wrong place, tut! I've had my wrists slapped more times for that than I can recall. It's just summer - and this one so far seems pretty unremarkable. Good ones,bad ones,indifferent ones; I've seen the whole range in my 48 years, and I cannot for the life of me see how anything has significantly (or even insignificantly!), permanently changed in that time. Get over it,man!

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Indeed, there's often a trade-off in summer where coastal areas get more sunshine than inland areas but are often cooler than inland due to onshore breezes.  Hastings for instance has a mean max of just 20 or 21C during July and August but a monthly mean of over 230 hours of sunshine.

 

 

Its a good reason why I like the summer weather in this region in general. The worst of the heat in hot spells is avoided and also, most of the time, in low pressure spells over the UK, when the wind is off the sea the showers/storms escape here and skies can be brilliantly clear with lots of warm sunshine and all the clouds piled up inland. On that basis there is sometimes a best of all worlds - at least in terms of my own weather preferences. It's not bullet-proof of course, and autumn can pull a short straw here f.e with the reverse fortunes to summer, but it is a reliable enough guide. 

 

Also, in winter-time I am far enough east and close to the continent to benefit from some of the coldest temperatures and snow from easterly spells of weather. March this year was a truly classic example.

Edited by Tamara Road
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<SNIP>

 

 

OK, the point I made badly was "there is a time and a place" for such *debate*, climate in a climate thread, artic ice in the artic ice thread.

 

This is the "Summer 2013" thread, not the "Summer 2093" one.

 

If you feel you still want to discuss this further please PM me as the open forum is not the place to continue this.

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GW would you PLEASE keep your climat theories to the correct area, this is NOT the place for several paragraphs on that topic, okay a one line comment is perhaps okay but NOT several paragraphs.thanks in advance?
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Just out of interest and because a lot of us feel the NH pattern seems different these days i looked at the mean height anomalies of the 500hPa pattern by decade of the June-August (Summer)quarter.

At random i chose to start with the 1960's -seemed far enough back to see how our patterns have evolved to get a trend.

Here they are by decade

 

post-2026-0-21294500-1371985213_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-59465900-1371985228_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-40566000-1371985238_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-70572800-1371985248_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-59477000-1371985362_thumb.pn

 

At first glance it's easy to see that +ve height anomalies over the Arctic were much more persistent in the last decade pushing the mean jet further south and setting up a mean UK trough.

The switch to this more -ve NAO/AO setup seems to have come more apparent midway through the last decade.The 2 images below are for 2001-6 and then 2007-12 although even in the earlier 2001-6 chart the trend for Arctic +ve hts had started to show it's hand.

 

post-2026-0-21798400-1371985770_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-39255400-1371985783_thumb.pn

 

These results whilst showing the changes since 2000  are really just to underline that our 500hpa mean ht pattern has changed during the last few Summers, as we thought, but i do think the period is too short to prove anything wrt to ongoing trends.

Indeed we have had periods of unsettled Summers before-the 1960's had some for sure and so far this year we seemed to have reverted to our more traditional +ve NAO/AO picture with the Azores high and Icelandic low pressure generally the setup.

 

 

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Sorry John but then please do allow me my defense when folk are mean and plain wrong in their assault on me/

 

I did 'predict' an alteration to our Jet pattern and 'it has' come to pass. either I'm a very lucky 'guesser' or the impact of last years record ice losses is having a knock on impact on N.Hemisphere weather this summer?

 

The problem for us all that this 'impact' would need be 'instant' ( not lagged) and the move toward seasonal , and then seasonal for ever longer periods, is already occuring. If this bring with it wild and whacky weather for the N.Hemisphere ( and it's 'knock on in the S.Hemisphere) then hadn't folk at least get to speed on the subject so as to be able to then 'see' it's impacts manifest?

 

Again, July set a lot more 'fair' than the previous 6 and this 'more settled' summer continueing into sept ( and even Oct?). Central europe still plagued by it's errant weather and many other 'climate extremes' to be seen around the N.Hemisphere.

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Just out of interest and because a lot of us feel the NH pattern seems different these days i looked at the mean height anomalies of the 500hPa pattern by decade of the June-August (Summer)quarter.

At random i chose to start with the 1960's -seemed far enough back to see how our patterns have evolved to get a trend...

 

Good stuff Phil, just a small suggestion. It might be easier to compare the anomalies through the different decades if you keep the same colour scale for each chartPosted Image

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Good stuff Phil, just a small suggestion. It might be easier to compare the anomalies through the different decades if you keep the same colour scale for each chartPosted Image

Thanks.Yes i am still getting used to the re-anaIysis page BFVT but i didn't change any of the scale only the years to produce the charts.

Not sure how to keep the same scale on those as they seem to change automatically?

Edited by phil nw.
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Sorry John but then please do allow me my defense when folk are mean and plain wrong in their assault on me/ I did 'predict' an alteration to our Jet pattern and 'it has' come to pass. either I'm a very lucky 'guesser' or the impact of last years record ice losses is having a knock on impact on N.Hemisphere weather this summer? The problem for us all that this 'impact' would need be 'instant' ( not lagged) and the move toward seasonal , and then seasonal for ever longer periods, is already occuring. If this bring with it wild and whacky weather for the N.Hemisphere ( and it's 'knock on in the S.Hemisphere) then hadn't folk at least get to speed on the subject so as to be able to then 'see' it's impacts manifest? Again, July set a lot more 'fair' than the previous 6 and this 'more settled' summer continueing into sept ( and even Oct?). Central europe still plagued by it's errant weather and many other 'climate extremes' to be seen around the N.Hemisphere.

like talking to a brick wall- I did say PLEASE-I give upthanks for that actual data phil, I do so like fact rather than folk using their own memories, we are all liable to remember some things and not others. Edited by johnholmes
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Thanks.Yes i am still getting used to the re-anaIysis page BFVT but i didn't change any of the scale only the years to produce the charts.

Not sure how to keep the same scale on those as they seem to change automatically?

 

Presuming it's the same monthly/seasonal composites page, the colour scale options is labelled "Override default contour interval?", just above the map projections option near the bottom of the page. An interval of 5 and a lower and upper range of -50 and 50 could work well on those maps for example.

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Its so refreshing to see the models resembling summers pre 2007. By that i mean low pressure over Greenland and the Azores high much closer to the UK throwing up decent ridges from time to time. Have we got over the freak wet summers of 2007-2012 where high pressure was a rarity. I do hope so.

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Its so refreshing to see the models resembling summers pre 2007. By that i mean low pressure over Greenland and the Azores high much closer to the UK throwing up decent ridges from time to time. Have we got over the freak wet summers of 2007-2012 where high pressure was a rarity. I do hope so.

 

'Normal' service appears to have been resumed,then. OK guys,move along now,nothing to see here. Now the days are getting shorter can we ressurect the Autumn thread and forget all this warmth and sunshine nonsense?

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'Normal' service appears to have been resumed,then. OK guys,move along now,nothing to see here. Now the days are getting shorter can we ressurect the Autumn thread and forget all this warmth and sunshine nonsense?

 

What about Indian Summers, LG!?

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Presuming it's the same monthly/seasonal composites page, the colour scale options is labelled "Override default contour interval?", just above the map projections option near the bottom of the page. An interval of 5 and a lower and upper range of -50 and 50 could work well on those maps for example.

Yes i see now.Have learned something there BFTV-thanks for that.Posted Image

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'Normal' service appears to have been resumed,then. OK guys,move along now,nothing to see here. Now the days are getting shorter can we ressurect the Autumn thread and forget all this warmth and sunshine nonsense?

Have you EVER made a post that doesn't tell us how much you hate Summer?
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I'd remind you all of June/July 2010 and how that fell from the wayside.

 

Background signals and teleconnections were the opposite in many regards to this year in 2010.

June 2010 has a -ve AO and NAO, low heights over Scandinavia, was coming off the back of a moderate El Nino, had much lower solar activity and a strongly (possibly record low for June) -ve QBO.

 

That's not to say things may not take a turn for the worse,  but in general, there isn't much similarity between this year and 2010.

 

June 1-20th 2012 .......................... ...................... June1-20th 2010

post-6901-0-52392500-1371993977_thumb.gipost-6901-0-69952500-1371993976_thumb.gi

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'Normal' service appears to have been resumed,then. OK guys,move along now,nothing to see here. Now the days are getting shorter can we ressurect the Autumn thread and forget all this warmth and sunshine nonsense?

I know you dont like Summer but these constant I dont like the light or warmth trash is not for this thread. Weve got your message now.

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I know you dont like Summer but these constant I dont like the light or warmth trash is not for this thread. Weve got your message now.

Not everyone wants to swelter, in 90o heat, B...For instance, I want rain...

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Not everyone wants to swelter, in 90o heat, B...For instance, I want rain...

I accept everyone has different preferences but what value is laserguy adding by constantly saying hes curled up in a ball away from summer? None.

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