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Maybe I'm easily pleased or just in the right location, but so far we've had 10 exceptional days this June followed by 4 unsettled days. If we escape the worst of the rain in the upcoming 2 weeks and end up dry but cloudy, I'd probably class this June as a fairly good one; behind 2010 but ahead of most others since 2006.I may be wrong but that would suggest to me home-grown convection firing rather than frontal systems crossing the UK, so perhaps if the chart comes to fruition the country would be in a slack area of fairly low pressure but away from Atlantic depressions.

 

Due to the low resolution of CFS, it tends to put more precipitation in inland areas, so while you re right about the convection it is more to do with the way CFS is modelled, if you look at my initial Glasto blogs, you will see the Midlands always had higher precipitation than other parts of the UK.

 

 

 

Indeed, there's often a trade-off in summer where coastal areas get more sunshine than inland areas but are often cooler than inland due to onshore breezes.  Hastings for instance has a mean max of just 20 or 21C during July and August but a monthly mean of over 230 hours of sunshine.

 

The central parts of big cities tend to be slightly cloudier than suburban and rural areas, partly due to the urban heat island effect (the increased heat encourages stronger convection and thus more cloud formation) and partly due to the greater pollution amounts which generate more cloud condensation nuclei.  The effect is nowhere near as pronounced as it used to be prior to the Clean Air Acts of the 1950s when smogs often caused city centres to be substantially cloudier than elsewhere.

 

Cheers for that Ian.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    Due to the low resolution of CFS, it tends to put more precipitation in inland areas, so while you re right about the convection it is more to do with the way CFS is modelled, if you look at my initial Glasto blogs, you will see the Midlands always had higher precipitation than other parts of the UK.

    Thanks Jackone, that makes sense although slightly disappointing as I was looking forward to that kind of set up (not that the CFS will be right!) Edited by virtualsphere
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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    Lovely day here near Leeds,think am being blessed with sunshine a lot of the country is under cloud again.Suppse to be nice again tomorrow.. So far June  as been  pretty good for my  neck of the woods... Never going to be  wall to wall sunshine from  day 1 to  day  30. But definetly settle for whats been sent down so far Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Today is nice yes - tomorrow looks good too. Downhill for the weekend typically. Bah.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    well the mjo offers no crumbs of comfort, heading for phase 1 by july.... <_<

     

    post-2797-0-14095300-1371575510_thumb.gi

    post-2797-0-74893400-1371575494_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Based on the summer forecast using analogues I did back in early May, I thought I'd have a look and see how June is shaping up so far compared to the forecast.

     

    ......................Forecast  ..............................  June 1-15th Observed

    post-6901-0-92556500-1371640035_thumb.pn post-6901-0-79590000-1371640078_thumb.gi

     

    While the caveat of it only showing the first half of June must be applied, I think the two are remarkably similar. The main features are captured quite well, strong heights over Scandinavia, low heights to our WNW and across the Mediterranean.

     

    While it is early days, and it may have just been chance that they are similar, if the analogues continue to give good guidance to the overall pattern, then July may be a very nice month!

     

    July Forecast from Analogues

    post-6901-0-25739800-1371640366_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Interesting posts from you BFTV-worth reading.

    My only comment would be that the current first 15 days show the high anomaly well north in Scandinavia rather than the whole of Scandinavia, and the -ve area is also further west into Iberia? Will these impact on the last 16 days do you think?

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Nothing at all, as the chart below ilustrates from a much more reliable timeframe, although still miles out in model terms.

     

    Posted Image

    Its hypothetical, but if that chart was to actually become true then it simply suggests a brief downstream ridge of high pressure before the atlantic low pressure comes in from the west

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Interesting posts from you BFTV-worth reading.

    My only comment would be that the current first 15 days show the high anomaly well north in Scandinavia rather than the whole of Scandinavia, and the -ve area is also further west into Iberia? Will these impact on the last 16 days do you think?

     

    Yep. If the anomaly can drop a little further south (as the July map suggests) we could get more in the way of warm easterly or south easterly airflows, rather than the occasional north easterly we've gotten at times over the last month. A weakening of those low heights over southern Europe may help with that too.

     

    Interesting to note that the monthly PDO went +ve in May for the first time since May 2010. Not sure what affect this will have on the summer. It's still looking somewhat neutral at the moment, while it went back to -ve in June 2010.

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Its hypothetical, but if that chart was to actually become true then it simply suggests a brief downstream ridge of high pressure before the atlantic low pressure comes in from the west

     

    The problem with posting charts is that they always change in the days after posting them. The chart i posted showed a more long lasting settled spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Based on the summer forecast using analogues I did back in early May, I thought I'd have a look and see how June is shaping up so far compared to the forecast.

     

    ......................Forecast  ..............................  June 1-15th Observed

    Posted Image678June.png Posted Image678 June Actual.gif

     

    While the caveat of it only showing the first half of June must be applied, I think the two are remarkably similar. The main features are captured quite well, strong heights over Scandinavia, low heights to our WNW and across the Mediterranean.

     

    While it is early days, and it may have just been chance that they are similar, if the analogues continue to give good guidance to the overall pattern, then July may be a very nice month!

     

    July Forecast from Analogues

    Posted Image678July.png

     

    that looks like an mjo july composite phase 4, which atm we are far from getting (not saying we wont get what your july analogues suggest though :) )

    post-2797-0-56651500-1371884839_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    no problem mushymay I ask when you get the data from your friend please publish each month with all his data , max, min, rainfall, no of days 1.0mm, sunshine etc please?I do believe from memory when in the Met Office that there are at least 5 or 6 that use the name Derby and I believe we have one in the COL system I belong to. I may ask if he did observations that far back although I note he does not do sunshine readings.

     

    hes still not got back to me yet... probably too busy... ive viewed the archive charts though for july/aug 91 and those charts do indeed appear to suggest that 91 was better then what my memory would relate. in my defence though 91 was a very turbulant time for me, so memories of weather events were low priority plus i wasnt in a position , personally, to enjoy heat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

    yep tonight it will get dark about 30 seconds earlier than last night, roll on winter, even though i like summer

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Not yet the sunsets get slightly later by a matter of seconds until the 24th/25th June I believe, it's the mornings that start drawing in first.

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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    Gawd almighty people complaining. June hasn't been that bad..July and  August are typically our summer months.. And  from my viewing of weather  in my life time. (no expert on the weather)  September is more realiable  than June. well the first 3 weeks..

    Really warm evenings never appear in June. They are usually in mid July  early August.. Next week is looking alright to. Previous Summers have been  horrible. But this year  hasn't been that bad so far..

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Meanwhile I am still seeing 'impact' that has 'pushed us' away from the 'stuck' pattern we seemed to have adopted since 07'?

     

    Folk  do seem to enjoy misrepresenting what I say ( I must also take some of the blame but promise my intentions are always for the best?) so from the outset I will say that natural patterns are 'impacted' by the addition of forcing that we (humanity) have helped create and not "It's all man's doing!!!"

     

    As a caveat I would add that , over time, man's forcing will be so great as to overcome the 'natural cyclical patterns' that we are all used to but that time is not yet here!

     

    I had suggested a drier year than of late due to the resonations set up by last years 'extra' low ice levels across the Arctic Basin. I still cannot see how such an impressive reduction, and the added energy this placed into the climate system, could have a null impact. We only needed the 'trough' that had blighted us to shift west or east by a few degrees to have our recent 'blight' turned into someone elses problem. Sadly it appears that things shifted east and it became Europe's problem ( not that i do not 'wince' at every new L.P. I see arrive on the charts only to have a sigh of relief to see it track NE and merely tail flick us!!! (1 year to the day since the first our our 2012 floods!!!).

     

    Should ice levels again approach the 2012 'low' and not rebound to the 2011 low then I would be so bold as to suggest that next year will also not suffer the same blight as the 07' to 2012 period?

     

    Sadly ice levels will not remain as stable as they did from 07'  to 2011 with the next major drop probably occurring in rapid order ( and then on to 'seasonal'?) so we will not have anything like the amount of time some folk demand to 'confirm' the observations?

     

    I'm with BFTV in predicting a fair set July but would also suggest N.Hemisphere will see many more 'extremes' (1 in 100yr events) through the rest of summer and into Autumn.

     

    If 'natural' can tweak weather into such extremes then why not the scale of 'extra energy' (at least 2 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy a second)  we have enabled the planet to milk out of that arriving  at the top of the atmosphere???

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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    Our climate hasn't changed, we are just in a  run of poor summers.You can count on the fingers of one hand the great summers we  have had in the last 20  years.. that's because  we don't get summers like that every year. 1995/2003/2006..

    Seems people have some kind of  glary eyed opinions of summer in the UK. Summers are rarely settled like our climate full stop.

    That's why you need to count up how many good days you get compard to bad.. Speaking from my location  we had 10 nice days at the start of June.. 4 nice day recently.. and  hopefully a  few more to end the Month.. That's well over half the month of fine weather.. Sure theres been no heatwave.. But I still fancy our chances of getting one this year. Still July/August and September to go Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Our climate hasn't changed, we are just in a  run of poor summers.You can count on the fingers of one hand the great summers we  have had in the last 20  years.. that's because  we don't get summers like that every year. 1995/2003/2006..

    Seems people have some kind of  glary eyed opinions of summer in the UK. Summers are rarely settled like our climate full stop.

    That's why you need to count up how many good days you get compard to bad.. Speaking from my location  we had 10 nice days at the start of June.. 4 nice day recently.. and  hopefully a  few more to end the Month.. That's well over half the month of fine weather.. Sure theres been no heatwave.. But I still fancy our chances of getting one this year. Still July/August and September to go <script type="text/javascript">//;return b};F[l].r=function(a){var b=this.n(a);return{top:b,bottom:b+a.offsetHeight}}; F[l].q=function(a,Posted Image{if(a.currentStyle)return a.currentStyle;if(f.defaultView&&f.defaultView.getComputedStyle){var c=f.defaultView.getComputedStyle(a,d);if©return c.getPropertyValue(Posted Image}return a.style&&a.style?a.stylePosted Image};F[l].p=function(a){if(this.q(a,A)==B)return!0;if(!this.f&&(0==a.offsetHeight||0==a.offsetWidth))return!1;var b=this.s(),c=a.getBoundingClientRect();c?(a=c.top-b.height,b=c.bottom):(c=this.r(a),a=c.top-b.bottom,b=c.bottom-b.top);return a<=this.i&&0<=b+this.i}; F[l].m=function(a){this.l(a);var b=this;e.setTimeout(function(){var c=a[n](z);if(c!=d)if((b.b||b.p(a))&&a.src.indexOf(-1!=b.o)){var k=a.parentNode,G=a.nextSibling;k&&k.removeChild(a);a.getAttribute=a.j;a.removeAttribute(w);a.removeAttribute(z);a.removeAttribute(y);k&&k.insertBefore(a,G);a.src=c}else b.a.push(a)},0)};F[l].loadIfVisible=F[l].m;F[l].u=function(){this.b=!0;this.d()};F[l].loadAllImages=F[l].u;F[l].d=function(){var a=this.a,b=a.length;this.a=[];for(var c=0;c{return a.a?a.a(Posted Image!=d:a[n](Posted Image!=d};F[l].v=function(){for(var a=f.getElementsByTagName(s),b=0;b{var c=a;this.e(c,z)&&this.l©}};F[l].overrideAttributeFunctions=F[l].v;F[l].l=function(a){var b=this;this.e(a,y)||(a.j=a[n],a.getAttribute=function(a){a.toLowerCase()==D&&b.e(this,z)&&(a=z);return this.j(a)},a.setAttribute(y,q))}; E.k=function(a,b,c){if(a.addEventListener)a.addEventListener(b,c,!1);else if(a.attachEvent)a.attachEvent(v+b,c);else{var k=a[v+b];a[v+b]=function(){c.call(this);k&&k.call(this)}}};E.t=function(a,Posted Image{var c=new F(Posted Image;E.lazyLoadImages=c;0!=b.indexOf®&&((new Image).src=Posted Image;E.k(e,t,function(){c.f=!0;e.setTimeout(function(){c.b=a;c.d()},200)});a||E.k(e,C,function(){if(!c.c){var a=c.h;(new Date).getTime()-c.g>c.h&&(a=0);c.c=e.setTimeout(function(){c.g=(new Date).getTime();c.d();c.c=d},a)}})}; E.lazyLoadInit=E.t;})(); pagespeed.lazyLoadInit(false, "/mod_pagespeed_static/1.Hy2LQaukh5.gif"); //]]></script>/mod_pagespeed_static/1.Hy2LQaukh5.gif;++;++c)this.m(a[c])};>

    But climate is always changing?

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    Meanwhile I am still seeing 'impact' that has 'pushed us' away from the 'stuck' pattern we seemed to have adopted since 07'?

     

    Folk  do seem to enjoy misrepresenting what I say ( I must also take some of the blame but promise my intentions are always for the best?) so from the outset I will say that natural patterns are 'impacted' by the addition of forcing that we (humanity) have helped create and not "It's all man's doing!!!"

     

    As a caveat I would add that , over time, man's forcing will be so great as to overcome the 'natural cyclical patterns' that we are all used to but that time is not yet here!

     

    I had suggested a drier year than of late due to the resonations set up by last years 'extra' low ice levels across the Arctic Basin. I still cannot see how such an impressive reduction, and the added energy this placed into the climate system, could have a null impact. We only needed the 'trough' that had blighted us to shift west or east by a few degrees to have our recent 'blight' turned into someone elses problem. Sadly it appears that things shifted east and it became Europe's problem ( not that i do not 'wince' at every new L.P. I see arrive on the charts only to have a sigh of relief to see it track NE and merely tail flick us!!! (1 year to the day since the first our our 2012 floods!!!).

     

    Should ice levels again approach the 2012 'low' and not rebound to the 2011 low then I would be so bold as to suggest that next year will also not suffer the same blight as the 07' to 2012 period?

     

    Sadly ice levels will not remain as stable as they did from 07'  to 2011 with the next major drop probably occurring in rapid order ( and then on to 'seasonal'?) so we will not have anything like the amount of time some folk demand to 'confirm' the observations?

     

    I'm with BFTV in predicting a fair set July but would also suggest N.Hemisphere will see many more 'extremes' (1 in 100yr events) through the rest of summer and into Autumn.

     

    If 'natural' can tweak weather into such extremes then why not the scale of 'extra energy' (at least 2 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy a second)  we have enabled the planet to milk out of that arriving  at the top of the atmosphere???

    do you ever not bang on about climate/ice/global warming/other climatic death stuff and err just enjoy life a bit and all the really fantastic other stuff the world and its wonders have to hold in the here and now? coz patterns aside, nothing is proven that we are all about to die soon because of it.

     

     

    and I love nature, support it and fully believe we should live in harmony with it not against it, but plllleeeaseee, stop harping on and ramming it down our throats.

    Edited by Jax
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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    But climate is always changing?

    I don't see any difference in the uk's climate.Its unpredictable and always been the same.This nonsense about the jet stream being further south. I recall growing up people saying  if we are to get a  good summer the jet has to move north. And  watching  clips from  the 60s  the jet stream was mentioned even then. It's not  a new thing.We are having a  run of poor summers..

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Our climate hasn't changed, we are just in a  run of poor summers.You can count on the fingers of one hand the great summers we  have had in the last 20  years.. that's because  we don't get summers like that every year. 1995/2003/2006..

    Seems people have some kind of  glary eyed opinions of summer in the UK. Summers are rarely settled like our climate full stop.

    That's why you need to count up how many good days you get compard to bad.. Speaking from my location  we had 10 nice days at the start of June.. 4 nice day recently.. and  hopefully a  few more to end the Month.. That's well over half the month of fine weather.. Sure theres been no heatwave.. But I still fancy our chances of getting one this year. Still July/August and September to go Posted Image

    well in my lifetime we have had plenty of good summers here in the pennines and we get the worst weather in the country[well almost]

    1975,1976,1983,1984,1989,1995,2003and 2006 were all very good

    also1990,1996,1997 and 2004 were also good,in these parts anyway

    I reckon in my life time on 2 very good summers per decade....the question is what has happened since 2006??

    it could just be a natural anomolie?or global warming?it doesn't just change like a flick of a switch so I reckon its just a blip and we are much more  likely to get a run of better summers!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    but there must a reason we are having poor summers

     

     even though last summer was very rainy and considered poor and it was by anyones standard, yet it was more intersting than this bland affair we are enduring this year, last year we had at least some decent heat by now, and a few thunderstorms, this year seems a nothingness, apart from a few sunny days but no notable heat, and a lot of the time it has been uniform bland featurless grey stratus , Good convective days have been virtually non existant, unprecedented so late in the year as far as I am concerened

    Edited by IanR
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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    This year has been fine and avg so far IMHO.

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