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Your inverted commas around the words global waming suggest .... an agenda, or at least a certain way of thinking.

 

Reminding me why I stay out of that particular thread on here. Confine the science and anti science** to that thread please, I'd suggest

 

**(definition of either re climate change/global warming depends on whichever direction suits your thinking ... ) .

 

I can't - I'm banned... but the refusal of some to mention 'global warming' and weather in the same sentence when it doesn't suit is very telling; seen it a million times before. If this gets deleted it'd be even more telling. How's the whip-round doing, RB?

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How is that lame and not strictly true.. I can't see anything they say that isn't true at this stage? Only the last small paragraph depending on where you live could I understand some not really agreeing with.

 

Lol surely what you're saying is backing up their point i.e we don't really know what will happen after June, and hence summer's not over yet as in we can't write it off yet?

 

Also some models like GFS, ECM show a couple warm days for the south next week, sun dry and warmth for those days.

 

because its the sort of 'blah' post i could have written, not a reasoned hopeful insightful note at all.

 

 

 

Foreasting from past years = not proper forecasting.

 

eh?... even the professionals, the computers, all use data gathered from the past to help predict the future...

 

i sense you are getting pretty frustrated with anyone who isnt suggesting glasto will be warm and dry. sorry mate, theres nothing in the charts this morning, anywhere, to suggest that the rest of june wont be like 07, 08, 12, ... the synoptics that brought us those bad summers might not be the same (no northern blocking) , its the azores enemy directing the jet straight at us for the foreseeable furture, theres precious little hope.

 

only once in the past 40 years (83) has a great summer in july and august come off the back of a poor june (and before many point to the nice spell weve just had, id remind you that 1) it wasnt nice for everyone, 2) for a settled spell in early june it was cool! and 3) its gone... the pattern has changed for the worse. all the other summers of note, both great and good, had decent spells prior to july. so statistically the chances of this awful wet regime flipping totally into a warm/hot dry sunny one whilst isnt impossible, is id suggest highly unlikely.

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tbh thats pretty lame. it says nothing and isnt strictly true . the point is that we have entered a changable phase, how long will it last is anones guess. but whilst we are in it theres no summer as in sun, dry and warmth. it might turn out nice again, it might stay cool and wet.

mushyIn the science of meteorology the phrase they have used is correct, they do not know for sure so to say so is perfectly correct from a scientific viewpoint. Just because it does not meet your agenda is no reason to make your comment and describe it as, 'pretty lame'.It would be a relief in here if you stopped your harping on about what you think will happen based on your outside work. Experience is fine but every time anyone makes a post not agreeing with you you have to come back and carry on about it. Simply look back at the last 4 or 5 pages for the proof. You cannot even accept that actual data from somewhere only 30-40 miles from you shows you to be not totally accurate about your view of summer 1991. Please give us all a rest?
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mushyIn the science of meteorology the phrase they have used is correct, they do not know for sure so to say so is perfectly correct from a scientific viewpoint. Just because it does not meet your agenda is no reason to make your comment and describe it as, 'pretty lame'.It would be a relief in here if you stopped your harping on about what you think will happen based on your outside work. Experience is fine but every time anyone makes a post not agreeing with you you have to come back and carry on about it. Simply look back at the last 4 or 5 pages for the proof. You cannot even accept that actual data from somewhere only 30-40 miles from you shows you to be not totally accurate about your view of summer 1991. Please give us all a rest?

 

its called discussing/debating an issue, or are the forums for mere one line slogans/ statements?..

 

i accept the data for that location, as it happens im contacting a freind to see how similar his records for derby are. hes kept records (stevenson screen, etc proper mini station) since the mid 70's.

 

im breaking no rules, im expressing an opinion that i feel strongly about, if you dont want to read my whitterings, hit the ignore button...others have!

Edited by mushymanrob
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There are many other examples of Junes that were dodgy for summery weather over many parts of the country, followed by distinctly summery Julys and Augusts.  Looking further back in the archives, 1955 was a classic example over much of England and Wales.

 

1984 was a decent example in the north, and 1990 was quite a good example in many (particularly eastern) regions.  One could also make a case for 1995 and 1997 over limited areas of the country.

 

I have a continued feeling, though, that this year's June won't go down in memory as a "bad" June, merely average, for all of this changeable weather with a likely shortage of sunshine has to be offset against the first third of the month.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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its called discussing/debating an issue, or are the forums for mere one line slogans/ statements?.. i accept the data for that location, as it happens im contacting a freind to see how similar his records for derby are. hes kept records (stevenson screen, etc proper mini station) since the mid 70's. im breaking no rules, im expressing an opinion that i feel strongly about, if you dont want to read my whitterings, hit the ignore button...others have!

no problem mushymay I ask when you get the data from your friend please publish each month with all his data , max, min, rainfall, no of days 1.0mm, sunshine etc please?I do believe from memory when in the Met Office that there are at least 5 or 6 that use the name Derby and I believe we have one in the COL system I belong to. I may ask if he did observations that far back although I note he does not do sunshine readings.
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Is this the modern summer then? starting Aug '06, seems like now, we are in Autumn May to Feb, then winter Mar and Apr

What about April 2007, April 2011 and March 2012? Each of those months contained lengthy spells that were as sunny and warmer than the first third of this month (in this neck of the woods at least).
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What about April 2007, April 2011 and March 2012? Each of those months contained lengthy spells that were as sunny and warmer than the first third of this month (in this neck of the woods at least).

 

not technically summer months, Sep '11 was hot from around 27th, but never really the Jun-Aug period

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not technically summer months, Sep '11 was hot from around 27th, but never really the Jun-Aug period

I realise that March and April aren't summer months, technically or otherwise. I was responding to your suggestion that since 2006, March and April were winter-like.
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i just have to say it really is stereotypical when people think that the south and east sees a lot of fine and warm weather, yes i agree on average we don't see the intense constant rain like scotland or ireland but we have many days of slate grey skies and low temps in summer with temps between 12 and 18c as we see a lot of easterly winds or northwesterlies which just bring dull cool rubbish, i have barely scrapped 20c this year and when i did see 20c it was cloudy with just a few sunny intervals, 

 

people made out that last august was really good here, not here it wasn't, yes it was warm but there wasn't much sun, but i do live in the north of the southeast

Edited by Tony27
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Maybe we may gonna get 1-2 more weeks of warm/hot weather, our climate is changing and I'm still gonna expect this Summer is going to be a wash out though. If it is going to be 2 weeks of hot weather coming up, I'm gonna make a most of it anyway.

 

At least we could get a nice Summer tan before the floods sets in. Posted Image

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no problem mushymay I ask when you get the data from your friend please publish each month with all his data , max, min, rainfall, no of days 1.0mm, sunshine etc please?I do believe from memory when in the Met Office that there are at least 5 or 6 that use the name Derby and I believe we have one in the COL system I belong to. I may ask if he did observations that far back although I note he does not do sunshine readings.

 

he is a keen amatuer, who ive worked with , similar age and tastes. dont think hes done sunshine records, but he has kept records since '75 i think it was, certainly max min temps and rainfall. hes not on the net. ive requested how many days he recoreded 25c july/aug. im still awaiting a reply. i promis to come clean if his data supports that that you posted. (which it will to a large degree, im just interested in the days of max temps plus sunshine levels/ cloud cover). it would be interesting to see where 91 fares in mr datas summer index.

 

anyway, talking about 91 isnt really the point im making, and a cynic could point out that im in a 'no lose' situation, either my thoughts on this summer will be totally wrong and we get a great one (id welcome that of course) or my thoughts will be borne out and itll be proven that hunches based on experience do have some merrit.

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Rainfall is down significantly here in Darlo year on year this time last year we had got 68mm of rain by the 14th one year one we have just 8mm to the same period

 

Looking at the long range models July could be another very dry month for many parts of the UK the exception strangely seems to be the midlands I say strangely because all around this part of the UK is shown to have below average amounts

 

Posted Image

 

 

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i just have to say it really is stereotypical when people think that the south and east sees a lot of fine and warm weather, yes i agree on average we don't see the intense constant rain like scotland or ireland but we have many days of slate grey skies and low temps in summer with temps between 12 and 18c as we see a lot of easterly winds or northwesterlies which just bring dull cool rubbish, i have barely scrapped 20c this year and when i did see 20c it was cloudy with just a few sunny intervals, people made out that last august was really good here, not here it wasn't, yes it was warm but there wasn't much sun, but i do live in the north of the southeast

I actually think the weather is pretty good here. I haven't really travelled around the UK a lot and dont know what the climate is like in these places, but I get the impression that it is much better meteorologically around here than elsewhere just from what people say on these threads (if it's sunshine and warmth you're after). Quite often I hear people from other places complaining about the weather when I am enjoying it. I enjoyed August last year. I do get the impression that Winter isn't as cold and snowy around here though, which hardly surprises me. Edited by 22nov10blast
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i just have to say it really is stereotypical when people think that the south and east sees a lot of fine and warm weather, yes i agree on average we don't see the intense constant rain like scotland or ireland but we have many days of slate grey skies and low temps in summer with temps between 12 and 18c as we see a lot of easterly winds or northwesterlies which just bring dull cool rubbish, i have barely scrapped 20c this year and when i did see 20c it was cloudy with just a few sunny intervals, people made out that last august was really good here, not here it wasn't, yes it was warm but there wasn't much sun, but i do live in the north of the southeast

Agree totally, last August had one hot weekend where we had 33C but the rest of the month was just ok, nothing memorable. The SE often sees the best of any summer weather, well, it used to before the last 6 years. Nowadays low pressure seems to be on a much more southerly course, meaning the South gets the gales/rain/crap etc.
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Oh well, just scrolling through the last day of summer on the cfs and we are left with this!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Not saying its gonna be right though!

What does this mean?
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What does this mean?

 

Nothing at all, as the chart below ilustrates from a much more reliable timeframe, although still miles out in model terms.

 

Posted Image

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i just have to say it really is stereotypical when people think that the south and east sees a lot of fine and warm weather, yes i agree on average we don't see the intense constant rain like scotland or ireland but we have many days of slate grey skies and low temps in summer with temps between 12 and 18c as we see a lot of easterly winds or northwesterlies which just bring dull cool rubbish, i have barely scrapped 20c this year and when i did see 20c it was cloudy with just a few sunny intervals,people made out that last august was really good here, not here it wasn't, yes it was warm but there wasn't much sun, but i do live in the north of the southeast

It's all relative really- by UK standards, south-east England has warm dry sunny summers, but in absolute terms, fairly warm and dry but cloudy would be a more accurate description. London's average maximum temperature of 23C for July and August is warm enough for a lot of people, and with a mean of 40-50mm of rain per month, London's summers are among the driest in Europe away from the Mediterranean region, but sunshine lets the side down with a mean of 200-210 hours per months in the suburbs and 180 hours near the city centre, which represents 35-40% of the possible total.The main reasons for Britain's reputation for rainy summers are the frequency of rain rather than the quantity, and the relatively low sunshine totals and high wind speeds. These issues tend to apply less to East Anglia and south-east England than other regions of the UK (having lived in Norwich for a few years I can vouch for it being something of a UK convection hotspot at times, despite being in one of the UK's driest regions) but they still apply when compared with most of continental Europe.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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There are many other examples of Junes that were dodgy for summery weather over many parts of the country, followed by distinctly summery Julys and Augusts. Looking further back in the archives, 1955 was a classic example over much of England and Wales.1984 was a decent example in the north, and 1990 was quite a good example in many (particularly eastern) regions. One could also make a case for 1995 and 1997 over limited areas of the country.I have a continued feeling, though, that this year's June won't go down in memory as a "bad" June, merely average, for all of this changeable weather with a likely shortage of sunshine has to be offset against the first third of the month.

The first 10 days of June and the end of May down here were stunning (135hrs of sun at Aberporth in first 10 days of June) , mostly if not totally sunny, much better than 2012, although quite a lot of recent Junes were pretty good (notably excluding 2012). Certainly has changed since then and this will impact the overall figures, how far North the Azores High makes across the UK will have a big impact, 

 

It's all relative really- by UK standards, south-east England has warm dry sunny summers, but in absolute terms, fairly warm and dry but cloudy would be a more accurate description. London's average maximum temperature of 23C for July and August is warm enough for a lot of people, and with a mean of 40-50mm of rain per month, London's summers are among the driest in Europe away from the Mediterranean region, but sunshine lets the side down with a mean of 200-210 hours per months in the suburbs and 180 hours near the city centre, which represents 35-40% of the possible total.The main reasons for Britain's reputation for rainy summers are the frequency of rain rather than the quantity, and the relatively low sunshine totals and high wind speeds. These issues tend to apply less to East Anglia and south-east England than other regions of the UK (having lived in Norwich for a few years I can vouch for it being something of a UK convection hotspot at times, despite being in one of the UK's driest regions) but they still apply when compared with most of continental Europe.

Coastal areas down south tend to do comparatively well in terms of sunshine as well, as seen on average, but on a personal note, it is often sunnier on the beach than even 2-3 miles inland.

 

Ian why exactly is City Centre London cloudier than the suburbs, just checked the stats and you are spot on (as usual).

Edited by Jackone
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Indeed, there's often a trade-off in summer where coastal areas get more sunshine than inland areas but are often cooler than inland due to onshore breezes.  Hastings for instance has a mean max of just 20 or 21C during July and August but a monthly mean of over 230 hours of sunshine.

 

The central parts of big cities tend to be slightly cloudier than suburban and rural areas, partly due to the urban heat island effect (the increased heat encourages stronger convection and thus more cloud formation) and partly due to the greater pollution amounts which generate more cloud condensation nuclei.  The effect is nowhere near as pronounced as it used to be prior to the Clean Air Acts of the 1950s when smogs often caused city centres to be substantially cloudier than elsewhere.

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Maybe I'm easily pleased or just in the right location, but so far we've had 10 exceptional days this June followed by 4 unsettled days. If we escape the worst of the rain in the upcoming 2 weeks and end up dry but cloudy, I'd probably class this June as a fairly good one; behind 2010 but ahead of most others since 2006.

Looking at the long range models July could be another very dry month for many parts of the UK the exception strangely seems to be the midlands I say strangely because all around this part of the UK is shown to have below average amounts

 

Posted Image

I may be wrong but that would suggest to me home-grown convection firing rather than frontal systems crossing the UK, so perhaps if the chart comes to fruition the country would be in a slack area of fairly low pressure but away from Atlantic depressions.
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