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... yeah i know its not the same regime that gave us 12, 07,08 , but its not the same as the conditions that lead to 75, 76, 83, 95, 03, 06...

 

 

But those summers are the cream of the crop. All I'm asking for is a half-decent summer i.e. one which has plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather to go with the cool, wet and cloudy weather (as opposed to recent summers).

 

Of course I would love a repeat of 1995 too (my own lazy, halcyonic childhood summer) but summers like that are rare anyway. Best to just let such a summer pleasantly surprise you when it finally shows up.

Edited by AderynCoch
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No high pressure to the north of us at all in that chart, meaning the jet stream had no problem transferring north again soon after.

 

EDIT - ditto for the second chart Posted Image

Edited by AderynCoch
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Here's a favourite of mine:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950715.gif

Two key points:

A.  The pattern of low pressure over Britain and northern blocking can sometimes arise on a strictly temporary basis- the following week saw pressure fall to the north and rise to the SE which brought in a hot and sticky south-westerly and then the last third of the month was increasingly anticyclonic/southerly.

B.  Slow-moving low pressure over Britain can bring anything from dull cold rainy weather to warm sunshine mixed with scattered thundery downpours, depending on the airmass source and how much cloud and frontal activity are tied in with the low.  We saw many examples of the former scenario last summer (the first half of July 2012 particularly springs to mind) but mid-July 1995 was a case of the latter.

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Of course I would love a repeat of 1995 too (my own lazy, halcyonic childhood summer) but summers like that are rare anyway. Best to just let such a summer pleasantly surprise you when it finally shows up.

 

I remember setting off to the Lake District with the missus on a Kwak 900 at the height of that - felt like my head had been microwaved in my helmet and my leathers and skin had become one.... awful.

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Today felt like an average day in November, not a day in June. A VERY chilly breeze here. This is so like 12 months ago....

 

As for writing summer off.....not just yet. I am confident it will pick up - but I can't see a 2012 outcome. Perhaps a 2007/8 one?

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Posted Image

 

I wonder how people would react now to a chart like this- and we all know what started a week later.

 

Here's another:

 

Posted Image

 

Quite, shows what can happen if the weather feels like it, just 7 days after that 2nd chart Exeter Airport recorded it's joint hottest temp ever in the record from 1973 to now that I use (33C there and 35/36C in places in S. UK I believe), the other date to equal it was the next day! You would probably been called mad to predict that a week later off the above chart.

Not expecting such an evolution or one with HP building over us for now but shows what can happen and no one can 'write off' a summer in June at the moment and be confident of being correct based on current charts.

 

 

No high pressure to the north of us at all in that chart, meaning the jet stream had no problem transferring north again soon after.

 

EDIT - ditto for the second chart Posted Image

 

True but that's quite similar to now then?

Posted Image

 

Definitely a lot less northern blocking than that chart posted above by TWS! admittedly it's probably not too common for things to follow the evolution that they did that year, but if that occurred today summer would certainly be over on some peoples watches!

 

That is one I will save for whenever someone tries to tell me summer is a write off when it's June. They could be right, but that would be more 'luck' or chance than a guarantee or sensible forecasting IMO.

Edited by Stormmad26
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It was a pretty cool spring in 06 though with few warm spells before May, and May itself was mostly cool after that sudden warm up in the first week. I also seem to recall a rather brief cool spell in that July after a hot start to the month and I'm pretty sure the doom-mongers were on here during that spell, believing it was set to continue.

 

... but there was two hot pre-cursors to july in june...

 

the point is that in 06 there were signes that something nice might happen...  i, along with most of the uk has still to see a 25c this year...  unlike previous hot summers, exactly like all the benign summers.

 

But those summers are the cream of the crop. All I'm asking for is a half-decent summer i.e. one which has plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather to go with the cool, wet and cloudy weather (as opposed to recent summers).

 

Of course I would love a repeat of 1995 too (my own lazy, halcyonic childhood summer) but summers like that are rare anyway. Best to just let such a summer pleasantly surprise you when it finally shows up.

 

yep... but im saying that i dont think a 'great' summer will happen... not an 'ok' summer, but one that rivals 06,03,95 etc.

 

June 1991, one of the coldest Junes ever lead to a very nice July and August.

 

where?... 91 was like 79 here... no heatwave, but alot of dry weather.  91 was not a great summer like those i listed.

 

 

 

As for writing summer off.....not just yet. I am confident it will pick up - but I can't see a 2012 outcome. Perhaps a 2007/8 one?

 

... and what was good about 07, 08?... oh yes, august wasnt as wet! they were far from being classic summers, i only had 3 25c's in 07 all in august. hardly a classic summer...

 

AND THATS WHAT IM ON ABOUT.. just to clarify... i dont think we are going to get a good summer, i am writing off the chances of a summer to rival 06, 03, 95, 83, 76, 75, even 90, 86, 84...

 

as i see it, the lead up to something with the potential for something great just is not there. there is no one here who would be happier then me if i am to be proven wrong! i hope i am! but after 40 years outdoor working i just cannot see any potential for it, at best we are in for an average summer. unsettled with periods of wind, rain, sun, cloud, varying temps around average. some nice days... some less so, no great heatwave but not as wet as last year.

 

i was wrong with my expectations for spring, as the coldest for yonks inflicted itself upon us, i hope my hunch for summer is wrong and i have to re-align my data... life/experience is a learning curve that can only be brought to conclusion by the data available. to date and with regret, i cannot see us getting a great summer.

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... and we are never going to get a heatwave as long as that azores enemy sits there, too close to allow continental heat, too far off to allow homegrown heat, that bugger is pointing the jet straight at us... feeding us atlantic lows.

Edited by mushymanrob
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07/08 did have nice Junes and decent August's but I can see 2013 following the same.

 

As you mentioned mushymanrob....the days of a 95/03 outcome are long gone. I think average as best is the way.

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But those summers are the cream of the crop. All I'm asking for is a half-decent summer i.e. one which has plenty of warm, dry and sunny weather to go with the cool, wet and cloudy weather (as opposed to recent summers).

 

Of course I would love a repeat of 1995 too (my own lazy, halcyonic childhood summer) but summers like that are rare anyway. Best to just let such a summer pleasantly surprise you when it finally shows up.

 

Most people don't know what an average summer is. If you exclude the July then June and August 09 are essentially average.

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That is one I will save for whenever someone tries to tell me summer is a write off when it's June. They could be right, but that would be more 'luck' or chance than a guarantee or sensible forecasting IMO.

 

no not luck, just educated guess based on 40 years of observation.

07/08 did have nice Junes and decent August's but I can see 2013 following the same.

 

 

 

eh?... two of the worst summers on record 'nice'?... maybe in your locale, but nationwide they were dire, especially junes.

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June 1991, one of the coldest Junes ever lead to a very nice July and August.

Interesting figures for July and August in the CET data sheetOnly 4 July and August combined mean temperatures show higher than 1991 in spite of another post suggesting otherwise1995 18.6 and 19.21997 16.7 and 18.92003 17.6 and 18.32006 19.7 and 16.9The 1991 data is 17.3 and 17.1I suspect the idea some folk have of average or mean temperatures does not necessarily fit in with the area that the CET covers but it may also be personal memories are not always correct. Edited by johnholmes
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the thing i always fear when looking at the models is northern blocking with the trough slap bang over us it is happening so often these past few summers it is becoming our default pattern, maybe we just need to accept this is our new style climate, maybe it is our fault anyway as some are saying the jet stream is being forced south due to melting sea ice, and why is sea ice melting? cos of us

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We don't seem to have much Northern blocking at the moment but there's been a lot of it over the past few years and when we've had a break it usually re-establishes itself soon enough. I don't know what kind of summer we'll have but if I were a betting man I'd go for a continuing of the trend. I wouldn't be surprised for northern blocking to return later in the summer, say into July/August and spells of wet weather similar to 2012 and other recent summers but it's just a personal hunch, we'll see.

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the thing i always fear when looking at the models is northern blocking with the trough slap bang over us it is happening so often these past few summers it is becoming our default pattern, maybe we just need to accept this is our new style climate, maybe it is our fault anyway as some are saying the jet stream is being forced south due to melting sea ice, and why is sea ice melting? cos of us

You've become quite known as a pessimist on the model output discussion thread, so your inherent, and indeed, never changing, pessimism/negativity is permanently untrustworthy IMO.

 

You seem to be a HIGHLY selective favourer of the most unsummery, wettest and rubbishist charts possible.

 

Such charts exist ATM, of course they do, but you're a stupidly obvious and in fact major dismisser of any more positive charts.

 

Watch this man's 'want to be negative' bias folks.

 

And yes, I do apologise for my personal remarks there, but do check someone's posting history before assuming any objectivity at all is possible from them ...

Edited by William of Walworth
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We don't seem to have much Northern blocking at the moment but there's been a lot of it over the past few years and when we've had a break it usually re-establishes itself soon enough. I don't know what kind of summer we'll have but if I were a betting man I'd go for a continuing of the trend. I wouldn't be surprised for northern blocking to return later in the summer, say into July/August and spells of wet weather similar to 2012 and other recent summers but it's just a personal hunch, we'll see.

Bit in bold : surely the first few words of your post (not too much Northern blocking ATM) could contradict them?

 

Betting on the 'precedent' of previous, admittedly rubbish and Northern blocking/Southerly Jet dominated, 'summers'  is as dodgy and unreliable as anything I can think of in forecasting.

Edited by William of Walworth
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June so far as been  pretty good well first 10 days.. (for me near leeds anyway) I know the east coast has been suffering with cold and cloud. If we can get another  6/7 good days out of the remainder of June.. That would be a  huge positive compared to last June in particular. Apart from today. Its  not felt cold at all for a while. That's another positive going into the rest of the summer..

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You've become quite known as a pessimist on the model output discussion thread, so your inherent, and indeed, never changing, pessimism/negativity is permanently untrustworthy IMO.

 

You seem to be a HIGHLY selective favourer of the most unsummery, wettest and rubbishist charts possible.

 

Such charts exist ATM, of course they do, but you're a stupidly obvious and in fact major dismisser of any more positive charts.

 

Watch this man's 'want to be negative' bias folks.

 

And yes, I do apologise for my personal remarks there, but do check someone's posting history before assuming any objectivity at all is possible from them ...

there is reason to be pessimistic though this the UK you are deluding yourself if you think we will get a 1976 style summer or long periods of above average temps, if i was moaning that it was only 25c instead of 30c then you are right to call me a moaner or negative, but i have had rubbish weather all i can do is talk about my area and it has been poor here this month so far bar one day, what is there to be positive about??

 

i agree i should post more on the regional threads instead of the mod thread but i won't change my posting style until we get some nice weather that lasts for a week, i don't expect weeks of it but some nice warm weather

 

i have said a few times that i hope to see good runs from the models, did you not notice that? no you didn't, you only cherry pick my negative posts, it smacks of hypocrisy 

 

when we see some good charts that come into the reliable timeframe ie T72 or less then i will be more positive i will not have false hope about a possible heatwave in 7 days time and say what people want to hear just to make their delicate minds feel happy, my fingers have been burn't too many times from viewing these models and being led up the garden path, like i said before this is the uk what can go wrong does go wrong, this week was mean't be be ok with temps in the low twenties, but it has been more like october than june, last week was mean't to be mildish at night, but some of my crops were affected as it got down to 3 or 4c here for a couple of nights

 

its no surprise you had a pop at me as you live in wales where it has been nice and warm recently, people say to me that i should realise that it has been warm in other parts of the country, well i do, but you should realise that some of us in the east have had the rough end of the deal with vile easterlies and slate grey skies not to mention we have had quite a poor spring overall as well, so i have good reason for the negative posts, 

 

i don't do blind faith, but i am not blind to seeing good charts

Edited by Tony27
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Interesting figures for July and August in the CET data sheetOnly 4 July and August combined mean temperatures show higher than 1991 in spite of another post suggesting otherwise1995 18.6 and 19.21997 16.7 and 18.92003 17.6 and 18.32006 19.7 and 16.9The 1991 data is 17.3 and 17.1I suspect the idea some folk have of average or mean temperatures does not necessarily fit in with the area that the CET covers but it may also be personal memories are not always correct.

 

depends upon how you judge 'summer' john. using mean temps doesnt necessarily equate to a good summer. july, aug 91 were not particually sunny or hot (like july 06, aug 95). high overnight minima (due to cloud) skews the data. where was the hot spell in 91? and by that i mean a countrywide spell of three days or more with temps 25c+ ? i think many would sooner have a run of daytime maxs of 25c+ and cooler minima then a run of daytime maxs c 22c and higher overnight minima. id suggest the latter is what we got in 91.

 

wasnt the other wet summer (07? 08?) end up with a high cet due to cloud and higher overnight minima? no one would suggest that was a good summer/month (cant recall which).

 

You've become quite known as a pessimist on the model output discussion thread, so your inherent, and indeed, never changing, pessimism/negativity is permanently untrustworthy IMO.

 

You seem to be a HIGHLY selective favourer of the most unsummery, wettest and rubbishist charts possible.

 

Such charts exist ATM, of course they do, but you're a stupidly obvious and in fact major dismisser of any more positive charts.

 

Watch this man's 'want to be negative' bias folks.

 

And yes, I do apologise for my personal remarks there, but do check someone's posting history before assuming any objectivity at all is possible from them ...

 

no worse then people chosing only the 'best' charts mate...

 

sorry, but i think his pessimism will be closer to the mark then the optimists, currently the charts are just getting worse on a daily basis with little or no real sign of anything nice... except the good old gfs which is constantly being proven to be wrong.

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I am able to dispute your comment mushy as I have the daily data for RAF Finningley available.

In terms of average max both months show values of 2C or more above the 50 year average for the station.

The average min in July was below that 50 year mean whilst in August it was above, giving means of 17.9 and 17.6 respectively compared to the average of 16.2 and 16.0.

As I often say I do prefer actual data to our memories. Finningley is only 30-40 miles from Derby so it would seem that your figures would be fairly similar?

depends upon how you judge 'summer' john. using mean temps doesnt necessarily equate to a good summer. july, aug 91 were not particually sunny or hot (like july 06, aug 95). high overnight minima (due to cloud) skews the data. where was the hot spell in 91? and by that i mean a countrywide spell of three days or more with temps 25c+ ? i think many would sooner have a run of daytime maxs of 25c+ and cooler minima then a run of daytime maxs c 22c and higher overnight minima. id suggest the latter is what we got in 91.

Finally to add another statistic - sunshine

both months showed values some 30 to 40 hours above the 44 year average for sunshine.

oh and finally days above 25C=both months showed 9 with a run of 4 days in July.

Edited by johnholmes
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I remember July 91 as being changeable but often pretty warm, and the August and first half of September as being warm and sunny. By mid-Sept that year much of the grass round here had gone brown.

 

I'd settle for a repeat of those months this year after the last few summers we have had even down here.

 

Despite the nice start to June here I'd say it's been drier and sunnier than usual but often feeling pretty cool out of the sun with the  low dewpoints giving the breeze a cutting edge. Best so far is 24c here.

 

If there is a bit of encouragement among the rather poor model output, it's that there doesnt seem to be a lot of northern blocking at the moment, and as there is often (from my recollection) a shift in the longwave pattern around the end of June give or take a week or two, I think there is every chance we could find ourselves on the warmer and more settled side of the pattern come July.

 

But who really knows!

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You've become quite known as a pessimist on the model output discussion thread, so your inherent, and indeed, never changing, pessimism/negativity is permanently untrustworthy IMO.

 

You seem to be a HIGHLY selective favourer of the most unsummery, wettest and rubbishist charts possible.

 

Such charts exist ATM, of course they do, but you're a stupidly obvious and in fact major dismisser of any more positive charts.

 

Watch this man's 'want to be negative' bias folks.

 

And yes, I do apologise for my personal remarks there, but do check someone's posting history before assuming any objectivity at all is possible from them ...

 

I think you need to get a grip of yourself. This is a weather discussion forum. We're just expressing our opinions on the weather. It's not life an death!

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Back towards something summer related

 

This tweet from Matt Hugo has taken my notice:

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

EC32 showing consistency with unsettled conditions (generally) into early July, possible anticyclonic change after 1st week of July.

 

 

That would very much fit in with the expectation from my summer research - we are looking largely unsettled up until the period of around July 10th (given or take a few days). But the middle third of July is looking more settled once again. Its a very similar signal to the one which projected the settled spell for the start of June, around 7-10 days in duration, and whilst unlikely to give anything sweltering, it would certainly promote a more seasonal feel

 

SK

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