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  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

    It seems to me that the HP dominated weather is always in FI, you see lots of ramping but it always seems to not come any closer, at least it keeps gavin and frosty busy posting FI charts week in week out Posted Image

    Not just HP lovers who indulge in ramping Eugene ... plenty of 'unsettled' lovers were hugely enjoying themselves last summer. And with good synoptic and factual reasons for most of it, but you never know, HP may build sufficiently this time to spoil the party-poopers'/writer-offers' party!

    Edited by William of Walworth
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    2 hours, Crewe?

     

    About that, that's how long it was rumbling around for. 2 hours probably from birth to end as you could see the storm building for quite a while beforehand. It was surreal. You should have seen the mess it left! Homes flooded out, reports of peoples' roofs caving in with the water etc. As I said it was very localised.

     

     

     (nice flash of lightning at 25 secs in)

     

     

    The videos aren't great but the descriptions underneath say it all.

     

    ''On Monday August 6th, Crewe suffered flash floods from the result of this: torrential rain that just came down like someone had emptied a bath of water.''

     

    ''Taken from the front door of my house, is the torrential rain that engulfed the town of Crewe on the 6th August 2007. The thunder and lightning before the storm struck was one of the most amazing spectacles I've seen in years''

     

     

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    TWO Summer forecast coming soon

     

    Summer weather forecast

     

    The TWO summer weather forecast covering June, July and August will be issued later in May. With cold air hanging around unusually late this year there has been a lot of speculation that Britain is facing another washout summer. In recent years we have been going through a period of colder winters and relatively poor summers. Nonetheless, this doesn't preclude a particular season going against the trend, with mild winters and warm dry summers still possible, but perhaps less likely than they were in the 1990s and 2000s.

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=1914

     

    Does anyone know when netweathers summer forecast will be released?

     

    Gavin P aka Gavin Partridge has issued his summer forecast

     

    Created on 26th May 2013 this is the final and official summer 2013 UK long range forecast from GavsWeatherVid.com. Using Eight global, numerical seasonal models this video attempts to predict the weather for the United Kingdom in the season ahead. Consensus among the models seems to be for a slightly cooler than average temperatures with near normal precipitation. This means a significant improvement is expected in 2013 on recent very wet and cold summer. Late summer may be cooler and wetter than early summer, this year.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    May has been a nice month so far. The stats for Cork airport over the last 7 days have been 54% normal rainfall and 155% of normal sunshine (not including today, which was mostly dry and sunny). The temperature during that time has been 1.2C below average, which I don't mind. Sunny, dry and cool is fine for me. http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

     

    The forecast has been for dry weather with temperatures in the high teens/low twenties from Wednesday onward here.

     

    Already looking better than last summer!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Ahhhh an interesting quote in that thread from the days when Cheshire actually got thunderstorms Posted Image

     

    ''Gone very black here in North Staffordshire, newcastle under lyme, and the wind has pick up big style in the last 30 mins,

    I can now hear thunder storms in the distance

    I think it's coming from the cheshire area''

     

    2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009 all good years for storms then suddenly they dry up! Won't hold my breath for this summer season!

     

    funny that... ive been decades without a proper storm although they were frequent here in the 60's and early 70's. the only proper storm ive had here in derby since the mid 70's is the one in my sig!

     

    to me, thundery rain isnt a storm,. weve had plenty of that!

     

    classic storms are the ones that drift up from france, in a line, you hear them coming ages before the sky starts to darken in the south. theres a distinct squall line where the updraft makes interesting, dramatic cloud formations, there the deep grey base where the rain and thunder/lightening comes from. june 25th '73... sept 15th (?) '73, july 31st '72 ... yeah in 14 months i got 3 top rated storms.... then one in 74, then nothing, just areas of thundery rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts
  • Weather Preferences: Rain/snow, fog, gales and cold in every season
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District 290 mts. Wind speed 340 mts

    june 25th '73... sept 15th (?) '73, july 31st '72 ... yeah in 14 months i got 3 top rated storms.... then one in 74, then nothing, just areas of thundery rain.

    It was Sept' 15th 1973, Rob. I've just looked through my records where I've noted a severe storm to the south ( here only 1mm of rain ) on that day.The last noteworthy storm here was July 2nd 2006 when a severe storm during the early evening gave 41.3 mm of rain, prior to that it was July 16th 2003 when a storm during the early hours gave 63.2 mm.There have been a few near misses since those two with severe storms within 10km of, but not actually, here.Then again thundery rain with little or no thunder suits me just fine. The deluge on August 9th 2004 which gave 75.1 mm was truly spectacular but the thunder associated with it has been bettered in many a passing shower.And if I can't have thunderstorms or thundery rain I'll just have rain; anything from a persistent wetting drizzle, upwards in intensity to a tropical downpour. I won't go on about that though!
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Not sure what happened to my blog entry the images don't appear to be showing so I'm just going to post this here and hope the images work.

     

    Summer Forecast 2013

    How the forecast was made

    I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
    used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.

    June - Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.

    Temperature

    Posted Image

    For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.

    Rainfall

    Posted Image

    In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.

    Pressure

    Posted Image

    The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.

    July - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.

    Temperature

    Posted Image

    Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.

    Rainfall

     

    Posted Image

    The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.

    Pressure

    Posted Image

    Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.

    August - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.

    Temperature

    Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.

    Rainfall

    Posted Image

    The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.

    Pressure

    Posted Image

    At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.

    September - Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.

    Temperature

    Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.

    Rainfall

    Posted Image

    Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.

    Pressure

    Posted Image

    High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.

    Climate Simulations

    Posted Image

    After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.

    Overall Thoughts

    Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.

    To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.

    I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    We had a corker of a storm here last year on the 25th August, the best for years. It dropped 45.6mm of rainfall in a very short time with a max rainfall rate of 155.6mm/hour. It lead to localised flooding in the town centre, but no properties flooded fortunately:

     

    post-2418-0-53918100-1369838935_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    funny that... ive been decades without a proper storm although they were frequent here in the 60's and early 70's. the only proper storm ive had here in derby since the mid 70's is the one in my sig!

     

    to me, thundery rain isnt a storm,. weve had plenty of that!

     

    classic storms are the ones that drift up from france, in a line, you hear them coming ages before the sky starts to darken in the south. theres a distinct squall line where the updraft makes interesting, dramatic cloud formations, there the deep grey base where the rain and thunder/lightening comes from. june 25th '73... sept 15th (?) '73, july 31st '72 ... yeah in 14 months i got 3 top rated storms.... then one in 74, then nothing, just areas of thundery rain.

     

    Well I'm classing a thundery downpour as a storm in the years I listed. I can't even remember the last time I witnessed a decent plume event. Possibly 2003? It was around then anyway. I remember staying in a caravan in N Wales with the rain absolutely thrashing on the roof and bright and vivid lightning going on for a few hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    We had a corker of a storm here last year on the 25th August, the best for years. It dropped 45.6mm of rainfall in a very short time with a max rainfall rate of 155.6mm/hour. It lead to localised flooding in the town centre, but no properties flooded fortunately:

     

    Posted Imagehedon flood aug 2012.png

     

    I recall that day quite well. I was playing Cricket over the river in Immingham and there was a torrential downpour mid way through the afternon after quite a warm and sunny morning. After the downpour we were back out and actually managed a result despite the pitch resembling a swamp.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    Isn't there a history thread for all these reminisces about storms etc?

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    I have glanced back at charts from last June and it makes me realize that, although its not a perfect start to summer, its a very acceptable one. After all the event cancellations because of the weather last Summer theres no danger of that this time, at least for the next 2 weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

    Yep much better outlook than last year (how glad I was to be out the country half of last June!).

    Just hope the latter part of the month delivers - 3 weeks on Saturday specifically!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    We had a corker of a storm here last year on the 25th August, the best for years. It dropped 45.6mm of rainfall in a very short time with a max rainfall rate of 155.6mm/hour. It lead to localised flooding in the town centre, but no properties flooded fortunately:

     

    Posted Imagehedon flood aug 2012.png

    I'd say that along with the 28th June 2012 were the best days of the year for storms for 2012. In Cambridgeshire there was a monster of a storm that same day unleashing nearly 200mm/hr of rain with frequent lightning visible from 30+ miles away with a few cracking +CG's shooting out from the upper origins of the CB. Hopefully we will see some belters this year. With it set to get warmer, something may just be waiting very soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

     

     

    Does anyone know when netweathers summer forecast will be released?

     

     

     

    According to Netweather's latest long range forecast, the full Summer forecast will be released at the end of May, so anytime now?  Perhaps someone can confirm?  Cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Nice

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Gavin.
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Nice

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    but not if you down the east coast with the winds comeing in from the east will be  sea mist and fog

    Edited by Stuart
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    but not if you down the east coast with the winds coming in from the east will be  sea mist and fog

     

    Not necessarily we've had sunny easterlies here already this year

     

    If anything the cloud is thicker in the west

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Its good to have some nice weather round the corner coinciding with the sun setting gone 9pm. It really makes it feel proper summery weather. Warmth in August is lovely too but theres the drawback of the nights getting gradually longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Interesting because I thought it was a huge disappointment! I remember the storm and I could hear the radio crackling away like anything. When it struck, there wasn't that much thunder, saw hardly any lightning and there wasn't much rain for a storm and it certainly didn't go dark for street lights to come on.

     

    Sorry W-h, forgot to respond to this re. 19th June 2005, I'm on the opposite side of Manchester to you so perhaps that had something to do with it- I was in Denton at the time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Just to quantify my own preliminary summer thoughts, here was the temperature anomaly projection for May based upon the strongest match QBO/ENSO years:

     

    http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EuroTempsMay.png

     

    So in terms of the CET measurement area, its a prediction of between -0.3c and -0.6c. The current Net-Weather tracker - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= - has us running at 10.8c, so -0.5c as an anomaly.

     

    So I am fairly pleased with that as a whole. The next stage is to see how the upcoming settled spell plays out, with the expectation that it would last around 10 days in duration, and that certainly by mid month we will be back into the unsettled and cooler regime.

     

    I will paste below the summary from the final summer forecast, issued on Monday, and the link to the full forecast is also below.

     

    The strongest signal through the summer period is for low pressure to stubbornly dominate just to the East of the UK, and this is why the signal for below average temperatures exists, with a notable higher than average rainfall anomaly persisting throughout across Mainland Europe. As mentioned previously, with the UK likely to straddle the boundary between low pressure to the East, and higher pressure just to the South-West of the UK, the main concern at present would be for a slight shift Westwards in the pattern, which may leave the UK open to another very wet summer as the rainfall anomaly across Europe ends up a little closer to the UK. However that is considered very low risk at present.

     

    So overall a better summer than 2012 is expected with far less rainfall, though temperatures looking rather disappointing. As is the nature with long range forecasting the accuracy of this forecast is open to question. The pattern through May matched those projected from our initial summer thoughts published back at the start of April, and so on that basis at least part of our forecast has been vindicated. We will most likely re-visit this forecast, to ensure it is largely on track, during mid-July.

     

    Full Forecast Link: http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/summer-2013-forecast/

     

     

     

     

    SK

    Edited by snowking
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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

    Hopefully plenty of heat, high pressure and thundery plumes.

     If you miss out the heat part, you might be right. Posted Image

    Edited by Hot Wet Windy Cold No Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    I read this often: 'storms drifting up from France'. But is that really what happens on most occasions? It is a popular misconception. Re. squall lines - those are a form of MCS that are comprised of several updrafts and can span great distances. They form in environments of good vertical wind shear, particularly where winds increase significantly with height.

     

    fair point..

     

    the only thing i can say is that all of the best storms ive ever witnessed arrived here in the derby area with a southerly/southeasterly with a distinct continental airflow. whether the actual storm itself grew in france or in the south of the uk, im not sure, but either way it was air off france/low countries that created the conditions that produced storms... thundery rain, single cells, etc are not what i refer to as a 'storm'.

     

    this chart from 15th sept 73 produced one of the best storms ever as the high slipped away and a shallow trough moved northwestwards.

    post-2797-0-25404000-1369984068_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    You knows guys, i'm getting seriously impressed with the coming warm spell.

     

    1) The breakdown from the west just is not coming and even better, when the high shifts west the jet stream is still miles away and thickness values high so the worst case scenario is a thundery low. This point is alluded to by the chart below.

     

    Posted Image

     

    2) Temperatures are being vastly underdone by most people. Firstly uppers are as high as 9C which in June translates to 23-25C straight off, couple this with short nights and fairly dry ground in most places and its likely that the temperature will increase day by day. My personal belief is that we will breach 80F (probably north west London to Manchester, somewhere in that line), probably next weekend as humidity builds from the south and pressure relaxes slightly.

     

    Posted Image

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