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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
    The idea of the 30 year phases for the PDO aren't all that robust. From 1900 to the mid 30s, the PDO was largely neutral. There was a jump in +ve values around 1940. After that, there was a fall in values until the mid 50s, then it trended towards +ve values until the mid 80s, before trending -ve again until now.

    I wouldn't be too surprised if we were back averaging +ve values again before by the end of the decade.

     

    Posted ImagePDOAnnual.JPG[/quoteI highly doubt that as these cycles tend to last 20-30 years, I see no reason for this cycle to behave any differently to previous ones.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Also we have to consider Landscheidt theory on solar forcings and the PDO. Off course we are now going way off topic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    The idea of the 30 year phases for the PDO aren't all that robust. From 1900 to the mid 30s, the PDO was largely neutral. There was a jump in +ve values around 1940. After that, there was a fall in values until the mid 50s, then it trended towards +ve values until the mid 80s, before trending -ve again until now.

    I wouldn't be too surprised if we were back averaging +ve values again before by the end of the decade.

     

    Posted ImagePDOAnnual.JPG[/quoteI highly doubt that as these cycles tend to last 20-30 years, I see no reason for this cycle to behave any differently to previous ones.

     

    But they don't? If we use the 5 year average above or below 0 as the start of a "phase", then we have

    1905-1935: Neutral

    1936-1948: Positive

    1949-1980: Negative

    1981-2010: Positive

    2011-present: Negative

     

    We seemingly have a 30 year cycle after 1950, but that's not nearly enough to separate it from random variation, especially as we had no such cycle before 1950. Whose to say this isn't the start of a 30 year neutral period?

     

    The point is, I don't think we should place much confidence in the continuation of the pseudo-cycle of the last 60 years, especially when the 50 years before that exhibited no cycle at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Heres a reconstruction of the PDO cycle.

     

    http://tinypic.com/r/2vjbj91/5

     

     

    As for your claims of a pseudo-cycle, quite laughable really and clearly agenda driven.Posted Image

     

    I used the official data. I explained my reasoning, and gave evidence to justify it.

     

    Yet all you do is call it laughable without addressing any of the points I made, and claim it's agenda driven? At least try to have a reasonable discussion.

     

    Your link doesn't show 60 year phase cycles either.

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I used the official data. I explained my reasoning, and gave evidence to justify it.

     

    Yet all you do is call it laughable without addressing any of the points I made, and claim it's agenda driven? At least try to have a reasonable discussion.

     

    Your link doesn't show 60 year phase cycles either.

    It goes back much further!

     

    Your denial of the PDO being a major player is typical of those who see science through AGW spectacles. For once be open minded. Not to worry from hereon as your now on my blocked lists as discussing weather and climate with you is akin to pulling teeth.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    It goes back much further!

     

    Your denial of the PDO being a major player is typical of those who see science through AGW spectacles. For once be open minded. Not to worry from hereon as your now on my blocked lists as discussing weather and climate with you is akin to pulling teeth.

     

    Posted Image

     

    I made no mention of the influence of the PDO on our weather SI, just discussing whether or not we should have confidence in the pattern since 1950 being repeated.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    It goes back much further!

     

    Your denial of the PDO being a major player is typical of those who see science through AGW spectacles. For once be open minded. Not to worry from hereon as your now on my blocked lists as discussing weather and climate with you is akin to pulling teeth.

     

    What? sorry to but in but viewing the discussion from outside it seems odd that you even completely make up peoples claims. Failure to accept any evidence because 'you don't want to' or don't take it into account, and then even make up claims of what people said to then use as ammunition is laughable and typical of some who see AGW though  skeptical spectacles (nothing wrong in being skeptical in it's self if open minded...)

     

    Where on earth did he deny it's influence? you're the one that came close to that and said 'the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.'

     

    Sorry, felt like I had to say it.

    Edited by Stormmad26
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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    A casual observation looking back at the seventies and the the nineties with my own kids May seemed to be the best month  of the year as we were all at higher and o level exams in Scotland and had to revise inside in great outside weather. This was invariably followed by a fairly warm dry June which often became thundery at the end as the good weather broke down. Summers seem to be on a different track since 2006.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    What? sorry to but in but viewing the discussion from outside it seems odd that you even completely make up peoples claims. Failure to accept any evidence because 'you don't want to' or don't take it into account, and then even make up claims of what people said to then use as ammunition is laughable and typical of some who see AGW though  skeptical spectacles (nothing wrong in being skeptical in it's self if open minded...)

     

    Where on earth did he deny it's influence? you're the one that came close to that and said 'the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.'

     

    Sorry, felt like I had to say it.

    But they do fluxate monthly and I wasn't the one saying how the PDO was pseudo science. I know exactly why BFTV was inferring such. I've posted a graph which shows the PDO index I would posts more but find the constant nit picking tiresome. This is just a continuation of what goes on the climate thread and why I won't post there no more, anyway he's on my banned list now.
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    But they do fluxate monthly and I wasn't the one saying how the PDO was pseudo science. I know exactly why BFTV was inferring such. I've posted a graph which shows the PDO index I would posts more but find the constant nit picking tiresome. This is just a continuation of what goes on the climate thread and why I won't post there no more, anyway he's on my banned list now.

     

    Oh I see, I wasn't saying they were just using the point if anyone said it didn't have an effect you came closer to it.

    I thought it was 'pseudo cycles' which I thought meant not enough data to know if the cycles are true, at least in 30-year cycles, meaning they could just appear to be cycles (based on just one positive and negative cycle) at the present times.. not the science of studying the PDO.

     

    Mainly why I seldom post in the climate thread too, anywho I think I should probably stop contributing in making off topic posts in this thread.

     

    --------

    I hope summer is reasonable of course, I'm not convinced it will be, wouldn't be surprised if it was on the cool or wet side again (I wouldn't mind wet too much if it was warm enough unless endless days of frontal rain),

    but I wouldn't be too surprised if it was average or even above, although I'm not expecting a really good one or a 2006 although it is possible of course, really I agree with thoughts and Met Office comments saying it's too early to write off summer.

     

    I have been looking at these graphs recently: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly and was surprised how many summers have been cooler in the past with 6 summers in a row in the 1960's cooler than any in the last 6 years for the UK average at least. There only really seems to be any real trend/unusual series of summers in terms of rainfall, although last summer was bad on the sunshine count.

    Nothing too unusual in recent summers/summer temps going off those graphs at leas, and past clusters of cooler summers appear to have reversed quite suddenly at times.

    Edited by Stormmad26
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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    Somewhat heated debate going on here, thoughts now must turn to Autumn 2013 as we have snow on the way re Northern Hills

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    Guest pjl20101

    Apologies if I have created a bit of ill feeling here with one of my recent posts, its just that I was convinced that the PDO looked pretty neutral looking in my opinion. On topic now I saw the GLOSEA4 model from the UKMO and looks like its echoing with what matt Hugo has said except in general for the UK that it will be around average in terms of precipitation but below average in terms of temperature.

    Think this is very much with what snow king has been addressing to us of a mean sceuro trough with 1978 and 1962 looking like the most similar matches to summer of this year with QBO and Enso matches.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Apologies if I have created a bit of ill feeling here with one of my recent posts, its just that I was convinced that the PDO looked pretty neutral looking in my opinion. On topic now I saw the GLOSEA4 model from the UKMO and looks like its echoing with what matt Hugo has said except in general for the UK that it will be around average in terms of precipitation but below average in terms of temperature.

    Think this is very much with what snow king has been addressing to us of a mean sceuro trough with 1978 and 1962 looking like the most similar matches to summer of this year with QBO and Enso matches.

     

    No worries, you did nothing wrong. Your PDO neutral comment was accuratePosted Image What happened with SI still has me somewhat confused!

     

    I think many would be happy to take the 0z GFS from next Monday onwards as a template for the summer ahead. May not be incredibly warm, but after what feels like a 6 month winter, it certainly looks appealing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    El Nino didnt happen so your out of luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

    I am new here and was wondering how do the present weather patterns compare with May last year, that led to the terrible Summer?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I am new here and was wondering how do the present weather patterns compare with May last year, that led to the terrible Summer?

    I think may was poor last year too although I don't think that a poor may has any bearing on the summer, it won't be difficult to have a better summer than last year as it was abysmal apart from southeast england.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    I think may was poor last year too although I don't think that a poor may has any bearing on the summer, it won't be difficult to have a better summer than last year as it was abysmal apart from southeast england.

    Also by this time last year northern blocking was established. There is none (yet) this year, so the background signals may be different for the summer which hopefully means that it won't be as wet or cool.
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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    I think may was poor last year too although I don't think that a poor may has any bearing on the summer, it won't be difficult to have a better summer than last year as it was abysmal apart from southeast england.

    first 3 weeks of may last year was wet and cool, but we then hit a lovely spell in the last 10 days.

     

    In CET terms average temp for the first 21 days was 9.3 - last 10 days was 16.7 - bringing an average overall of 11.7 which is right on the 1981-2010 average.

    So currently its been warmer than last year, although a last ten day period as warm as we had then looks unlikely in fact it if we get the ECM evolution it will be chilly.

     

    I don't know it says much about the summer though, after that lovely spell of weather the summer went downhill from there. From memory the jubilee weekend only a few days later at the start of June had a maxes of about 12 and rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    first 3 weeks of may last year was wet and cool, but we then hit a lovely spell in the last 10 days.

     

    In CET terms average temp for the first 21 days was 9.3 - last 10 days was 16.7 - bringing an average overall of 11.7 which is right on the 1981-2010 average.

    So currently its been warmer than last year, although a last ten day period as warm as we had then looks unlikely in fact it if we get the ECM evolution it will be chilly.

     

    I don't know it says much about the summer though, after that lovely spell of weather the summer went downhill from there. From memory the jubilee weekend only a few days later at the start of June had a maxes of about 12 and rain.

     

    Don't remind me of June 2012 - I remember days of 13c in the second week of June, coming home from work drenched and a saturated garden! There was a warm spell the last few days of the month, but I was sick in bed!!

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    Guest pjl20101

    I think may was poor last year too although I don't think that a poor may has any bearing on the summer, it won't be difficult to have a better summer than last year as it was abysmal apart from southeast england.

    Think Frosty039 that snow king is correct sadly about this summer that we won't have the constant deluges that plagued last summer, but it won't be a classic either with the mean sceuro trough. That is what the UKMO GLOSEA4 seem to reckon and with their impressive track record this spring and winter, I would say they are spot on about this summer as well.
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    Guest pjl20101

    Think el Nino didn't happen because the negative sois didn't last long enough and angular momentum didn't keep in an el Nino vein. Also last summer there were hints of a brewer Dobson circulation coming on too hence why it was so wet.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Also by this time last year northern blocking was established. There is none (yet) this year, so the background signals may be different for the summer which hopefully means that it won't be as wet or cool.

     

    erm.. no it wasnt, it didnt establish until the end of may/early june. it always seems to establish in early june.

     

    the archive chart for may 16th shows a chart thats chillingly similar to todays synoptic chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    I've been trying to think of ways we could make the summer prospects better than they are. Something to lift the doom and gloom. I've decided that the best way would be to abandon the current climatic average base conditions and start again. 

     

    Let's just use the 2007 -2012 average as our "base". That way the chance of an above average summer month for temperature and below average rainfall would increase. 

     

    It would make everybody feel much better, wouldn't it?! Suddenly June is looking good with that sceuro trough - should be an "above average month" and could be very dry.

     

    i feel much better already. 

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