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  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey

    Matt Hugo tweeted this earlier this morning...

     

     

    "A one off wordpress blog coming up in the next hour with some thoughts on the up coming summer. #dontshootthemessenger "

     

    Not sure I like the look of that hashtag!

     

    And here is the blog: http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

     

    Hmmmm, just hope Matt's analysis is wrong Posted Image it can only be an improvement on last year, surely?

    Edited by Jezzer
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    An easterly at this of year with warm uppers is likely to bring an awful lot of cloud therefore cool temperature despite warmer uppers, in any brightness the temps could shoot up however. One thing the unusually warm uppers may produce and the models are hinting at this is heavier than usual frontal rainfall from the East, it most certainly is one too watch. 

     

    I disagree with the BBC forecast also as I don't think its bulletproof that high pressure may stay at higher latitudes for long, its just too far out to predict the outlook for the start of summer as demonstrated by this mornings ECM which has the Azores high ridging in. 

     

    The video is correct in saying that we could head into a spell of easterly winds with low pressure nearby, not springlike weather at all but interesting too see nonetheless. 

     

    On the east coast it may well be I agree, but at home in Devon my hottest May conditions in recent years and in general have come off easterly flows with warm uppers, so inland and further west I still don't think it necessarily means below average, unless a renewed cold pool moves around the high, or cloud generated over the North Sea is unusually thick, or lows closer to the south of the country perhaps. That is something I forgot to put in my post though, it may be more accurate towards the east coast especially with below average SST's.

    I've also noticed the threat of heavier than usual rainfall predicted on some runs due to warmer uppers drawn into the mix this weekend.

     

    I am also not sure we will see a Scandi high giving such an influence over us for too long, the bigger worry for me would be whether we get something some GFS and ECM runs have hinted at recently with a renewed push of low pressure from the north west and associated renewed cool uppers and low temperatures, perhaps with a NW-SE tilted jet stream, but we don't really know yet and definitely agree it's too early to be writing off early Summer.

    Edited by Stormmad26
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    Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey

    Some thoughts on the next few months from Matt Hugo, may be of interest to some in here...

     

    http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

    Edited by Jezzer
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    This will shock you all, but the PDO has gone neutral now according to the ssts chart I am going to post:

    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.13.2013.gif

    Which could be a positive influence for the summer.

    Thats ENSO that's gone neutral not the PDO, that remains negative.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I still think we'll see a fairly good first half of of the Summer with mid latitude blocking in place, thereafter heights transferring further North with the jet to our South. After last few years this will seem almost balmy, the CFS charts are the ones to follow IMO, not infallible but they have performed exceptionally well over the last year.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    May & June 1983 were pretty dire; but look how that summer turned out...

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The met office probability maps for May have updated the below all cover Summer 2013 (June to August)

     

    850hpa temperature

     

    For the bulk of the UK we have a 20% chance of above normal temps, 40% chance of average temps and the south also has a 40% chance of below normal temps

     

    Posted Image

     

    Precipitation

     

    This looks about average with no strong signals at the moment

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    Matt Hugo tweeted this earlier this morning...

     

     

    "A one off wordpress blog coming up in the next hour with some thoughts on the up coming summer. #dontshootthemessenger "

     

    Not sure I like the look of that hashtag!

     

    And here is the blog: http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

     

    Hmmmm, just hope Matt's analysis is wrong Posted Image it can only be an improvement on last year, surely?

     

    I was thinking that about May, but quite frankly what we have currently is certainly not an improvement from last year. This current weather is absolutely disgusting and is an embarassment. And last May at least managed a cracking final week.

     

    It just seems (as the doomongers have been spewing out since March) that high pressure finds it impossible to set up anywhere favourable for the UK. I'm not thrilled at the prospect of mid Atlantic or Scandinavian heights, both are likely to be pretty rubbish in terms of weather on the ground, although the latter may be more dependent as time goes on on the proximity of low pressure to the south.

     

    Fortunately i'm off to Sri Lanka until early June - at least it will be warm there. I fully expect to be greeted by a cold, gusting northwest wind when i get off the plane on my return. anything better will be a bonus.

     

    just seen the METO charts posted above by Gavin. An 80% chance for the south to have an average or below summer. anybody know how good they are? probably as good as any other long range tool i guess.

    Edited by Pharaoh Clutchstraw
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Some thoughts on the next few months from Matt Hugo, may be of interest to some in here...

     

    http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

    Interesting - so cool and with above average rainfall then.

    There certainly seems to be a bias to northern blocking and southerly tracking jet stream ocross the BI in recent years.

    Not sure what the real driver is but evident.

    Still, it's Matt's opinion and there are probably contrary ones but I wouldn't be surprised if he is close to the mark. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Matt Hugo tweeted this earlier this morning...

     

     

    "A one off wordpress blog coming up in the next hour with some thoughts on the up coming summer. #dontshootthemessenger "

     

    Not sure I like the look of that hashtag!

     

    And here is the blog: http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

     

    Hmmmm, just hope Matt's analysis is wrong Posted Image it can only be an improvement on last year, surely?

     

    Interesting, but again I wouldn't expect temps to be 0-2C below average at least away from the east coast with a summer pressure pattern of easterly winds and us half way between the high pressure and low pressure anomalies, indeed easterlies can bring hot spells in summer with the continent usually warmer than the sea, for the same reason that they are cold in winter.

    In fact where I will be in east Devon this summer I like the idea of an easterly dominated summer with warmth and thundery conditions brought off the continent.

     

    Again unless the low pressure anomaly is closer to us, I wouldn't expect generally above average precipitation with easterly winds. But then again it's only an idea and might be right.

     

    I'm going to take more notice of what the Met Office said yesterday though for now 'don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.'

    Hmm not sure I like the look of those 850hpa temp anomalies Gavin posted above, but then can LRF's/charts be accurate enough of the time to actually say under 20% chance of above average temps and that be the true probability, if that makes sense.

    I suppose average would be fine.

     

    Edited by Stormmad26
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Thanks for posting that Jezzer, a very interesting read.

     

    As for the end of spring and early summer, the ensemble mean trend is promising an increase in high pressure over or close to the uk with the azores high having more impact than a year ago, so signs are good once we get through the current cool/trough dominated pattern, next week should bring a marked improvement, especially for northern and western areas of the uk which have suffered the most this spring and endured some awful weather, a decent window of fine and pleasant weather is not far away.

    post-4783-0-23492800-1368523900_thumb.jp

    post-4783-0-78188100-1368523935_thumb.jp

    post-4783-0-70716100-1368523991_thumb.jp

    Edited by Frosty039
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    This will shock you all, but the PDO has gone neutral now according to the ssts chart I am going to post:

    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.13.2013.gif

    Which could be a positive influence for the summer.

    you have lost me lad-how does that come about from the SST chart anomaly?
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    looking at the Met O anomaly charts, 2m, 850mb temps, 500mb heights, and of as much interest is how the pattern is suggested to change if you look at the previous couple of months outputs

    Their 500mb outputs do seem to suggest higher heights north of the country and lower than average heights south of the country.

    This area has shifted north from their April output and their March one.

    I have no idea how one can use these changes to apply any sort of forecast confidences or indeed how accurate they are.

    The general concensus from the small sample of their output and from other sources seems to be along these lines.

    Good for debate and who knows just what June-August will actually deliver for the UK? We will all know by 1 September when, no doubt, the winter forecast comedy will be gearing up yet again.

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    The Met office forecast video for early summer/end of May shows low pressure bringing average rainfall and below average temperatures, yet most of the models show high pressure bringing in average to above temperatures and fine weather. Model watching seems pointless at times...

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The Met office forecast video for early summer/end of May shows low pressure bringing average rainfall and below average temperatures, yet most of the models show high pressure bringing in average to above temperatures and fine weather. Model watching seems pointless at times...

     

    At the same time there is no guarantee the met office are right anyone remember there failed summer forecast a few years back?

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey
  • Location: Farnham - Surrey

    Some thoughts on the next few months from Matt Hugo, may be of interest to some in here...

     

    http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

     

    I can never see the relevance of some of these long term forecasts as they are so vague , it appears to be that the success of a forecast is based on whether the actual temp is either below average/average or above average or likewise with precipitation. If someone mentions above average precipitation then to me that implies a wet and fairly miserable summer, but then if we have 7 days out of the month where we a have a deluge of rain and the other 3 weeks dry and warm then I would consider that a perfect summer. Likwise 1 week cold and miserable and 3 weeks heatwave ..perfect !

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Thats ENSO that's gone neutral not the PDO, that remains negative.

     

    The monthly PDO data is here http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

     

    April was -0.16, which is essentially neutral.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    Thanks for posting that Jezzer, a very interesting read.

     

    As for the end of spring and early summer, the ensemble mean trend is promising an increase in high pressure over or close to the uk with the azores high having more impact than a year ago, so signs are good once we get through the current cool/trough dominated pattern, next week should bring a marked improvement, especially for northern and western areas of the uk which have suffered the most this spring and endured some awful weather, a decent window of fine and pleasant weather is not far away.

    Those graphics show higher than usual pressure for the north and lower for the south, yet rainfall is above average for all areas?

    Edited by Alexis
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Those graphics show higher than usual pressure for the north and lower for the south, yet rainfall is above average for all areas?

     

     

    I was thinking the same myself TBH

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Those graphics show higher than usual pressure for the north and lower for the south, yet rainfall is above average for all areas?

    the prssure you mention is not surface pressure but the anomlies for heights at 500mb, quite diferent.
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    Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

    the prssure you mention is not surface pressure but the anomlies for heights at 500mb, quite diferent.

     

    Correct JH - my issue with Mr Hugos piece is that he should do a logic check before posting because he obfuscates his thoughts throughout the post, and I also think he is wrong :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    But it remains in its negative phase and will continue that for quite some time yet, the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.

     

    The idea of the 30 year phases for the PDO aren't all that robust. From 1900 to the mid 30s, the PDO was largely neutral. There was a jump in +ve values around 1940. After that, there was a fall in values until the mid 50s, then it trended towards +ve values until the mid 80s, before trending -ve again until now.

    I wouldn't be too surprised if we were back averaging +ve values again before by the end of the decade.

     

    post-6901-0-53766700-1368549213_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

    Most depressing possible signals for me lie with the risk of the Jet tracking South. We don't know how persistant that will be, not do we know how far North of us Higher pressure will end up establishing itself or even it it will do this at all, but to my mind the best signal we could get would be absence of Northern blocking and the Jet tracking nicely far North of the UK. Not heading South of us (when it risks coming far too close ... )

    Edited by William of Walworth
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The idea of the 30 year phases for the PDO aren't all that robust. From 1900 to the mid 30s, the PDO was largely neutral. There was a jump in +ve values around 1940. After that, there was a fall in values until the mid 50s, then it trended towards +ve values until the mid 80s, before trending -ve again until now.

    I wouldn't be too surprised if we were back averaging +ve values again before by the end of the decade.

     

    Posted ImagePDOAnnual.JPG

    We could be looking at two 'random' flips, and putting too much faith in extrapolation? The sample-size does look a trifle small...

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