Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Have to agree with jack Wales and Tamara road, thank both you two for your detailed posts which make total sense. Gavin partridge also hinted on TWO that the oak tree has grown before the ash, so another good sign for this summer. Think nature is a more reliable indicator for predicting seasons sometimes rather than computer models which seem to flip flop each time.

     

    Isn't that an old wives tale? The Oak ALWAYS have leaves on before the Ash here- and look where that has got us over the last few Summers LOL

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.5k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Guest pjl20101

    Think that could be solar related Somerset squall and the fact that the sea ice has collapsed quite substantially influencing our gulf stream to misbehave and our jet stream to take a more southerly position.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    HGavin partridge also hinted on TWO that the oak tree has grown before the ash, so another good sign for this summer. Think nature is a more reliable indicator for predicting seasons sometimes rather than computer models which seem to flip flop each time.

    the word twaddle comes to mind so forgive the apparnet rudeness it is not an intended personal dig.Plants, trees react to what has happened NOT and NEVER have to what MIGHT happen-that really is an old wives tale-sorry Edited by johnholmes
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    After March? Then you're definitely forgetting the exceptional spell in the second half of May, and generally 'good' weather between mid July and mid August (I can't comment; that was exactly when I wasn't in the country).

     

    ...true, but bbq days need to coincide with weekends, lol, dont usually party when theres work the next day :)

     

    We all tend to remember what we want to remember, August here was reasonably wet but it also had some warm nights and very warm days. Here I am not using my memory but quoting from my weather diary.From the 1st to the 23rd there was only 1 day that did not exceed 21C and I had 8 days in a row with 24C or more, 5 over 25C.I suppose it depends whether you view life through a half full or half empty glass perspective?I have just found the 'official' COL headline for August, it is thisAugust 2012: Slightly warmer than average but wet and dull in many areasand yet another slant on it, this time in the R Met Soc summary by Philip Eden=Another unsettled month, but often dry and rather warm in the south east.Using the CET it was the warmest August since 2004another snippet=The rainfall has been exceeded in 4 of the last 10 years for England and Walesso it really is a cse of what sort of glass it seems?

     

    i remember getting wet john, i remember leaving pools of water in lawns ,  temps arent the be all and end all... i had solar panels fittede early august and was miffed that it was dull and cloudy most often.

     

    i have a large pool, i need 3 consecutive days of 23c + to make it worthwhile putting up.. it stayed locked away.

     

    i guess it depends what criteria you use... but i got wet, the ground was sodden, there was no suitable bbq days, pool days, or garden days.

     

     

    Last August was slightly above average at 16.6c. It wasnt a particularly wet month although sunshine amounts were down on average once again. Stations on the east coast south of the Humber recorded average maxima between 22c and 23.5c.

     

    thanks for the confirmation :)

     

    Have to agree with jack Wales and Tamara road, thank both you two for your detailed posts which make total sense. Gavin partridge also hinted on TWO that the oak tree has grown before the ash, so another good sign for this summer. Think nature is a more reliable indicator for predicting seasons sometimes rather than computer models which seem to flip flop each time.

     

    the oak was out before the ash last year by a huge margin... this year the oaks are out first, but the ash is close second.

     

    oaks come into leaf by sunlight, ash comes into leaf by temps, the saying has no bearring on the summer to come, but is related to sunlight and temps in spring.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well the Taddies are growing very fast in my pond so a hot dry summer is coming up. LOL

    Last year I watched the jet stream sink south as March ended and it stayed there all summer.

    August 2012 here was cool and very wet ach just notice a mistake with my data. That makes it just under average.

    Edited by The PIT
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    I did a little analysis with some analogues and stuff. I used 8 different criteria to narrow down the range of year, based on recent teleconnective trends and forecasts.

    The 8 criteria were

    • An Arctic Oscillation of between -0.5 and -1.5 on average over the last 6 months November to April (using the April year for the composite maps)
    • An NAO that has averaged below 0 over the period November to April
    • An AMO that has averaged a value of between 0 and 0.25 from the November to April period
    • A PDO that has averaged below 0 for the November to April period
    • ENSO anomaly in the 3.4 region of between -0.5 and +0.5 over June, July and August (JJA)
    • Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover over 1 million km2 below average in June (all recent summers have had very low snow cover)
    • A rising and positive QBO
    • 11 Year Average Sunspot count below 70

    With these criteria, I then made lists of the years that matched different amount. So I had a list that matched 3, and list that matched 4 and so on. The lists can be seen in the table below

    Posted ImageAnalogue table.JPG

     

    Interesting that the only year to match all 8 criteria was 2006...

     

     

    an interesting post, but i dont understand this result. (sorry for being dim). the results of that show that theres no clear indicator as to what the summer might be like... 2006 might have ticked the boxes in all 8 criteria, but 75, 76, 83, 95, 03, (all great summers) didnt.

     

    what am i missing?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Think nature is a more reliable indicator for predicting seasons sometimes rather than computer models which seem to flip flop each time.

    If nature was a reliable indicator of predicting season, wouldn't you think nature would be wary opening or coming to life during a very mild period in winter if it suspects a late season frost? I don't recall nature holding back during February 1998 knowing what was going to happen during mid April 1998? How many times in the past have nature been forward only to be nipped in the bud by a late season cold spell? Nature is a good indicator of what has happened in the recent past not in the near future. Edited by Weather-history
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest pjl20101

    John you are not being rude at all my friend, what you have said is very valid and I respect it. A concerning bit I have currently is the above average heights to the north for next month. There has to be a reason for it and it may be the state of the arctic that may be responsible for it.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    If nature was a reliable indicator of predicting season, wouldn't you think nature would be wary opening or coming to life during a very mild period in winter if it suspects a late season frost? I don't recall nature holding back during February 1998 knowing what was going to happen during mid April 1998? How many times in the past have nature been forward only to be nipped in the bud by a late season cold spell?Nature is a good indicator of what has happened in the recent past not in the near future.

    More to the point, WE, the annual plethora of 'predictions' based upon nature, would be right?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Nature is indeed in truth reactive and indicative of recent conditions rather than predictive in the ways that people have already said, but sometimes with all the serious analysis that goes on with these threads, the occasional old wives tale and a little lighthearted wishful thinking does no harm. Afterall a similar conversation in real life away from the virtual hubub on here would probably be treated to a smile and allowed to pass without commentPosted Image

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    More to the point, WE, the annual plethora of 'predictions' based upon nature, would be right?

    Groundhog Day was a disaster this year, an early spring was the prediction but infact it was a cold wintry March like in the UK.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Soggy summer II

     

    Washout fears for Glasto, F1 and Wimbledon

     

    BRITAIN is braced for another summer soaking to follow last year’s floods — with festival-goers facing a washout. The Met Office yesterday warned that “unsettled conditions†would last to the end of May and beyond. And there are already fears that heavy rain could put a dampener on the Isle of Wight and Glastonbury festivals, Wimbledon tennis and the Silverstone Grand Prix.

    Jet stream winds flowing 2,000 miles south of their normal position — the same reason for last year’s downpours — are to blame for the miserable weather. Met Office forecaster Reid Morrison said: “Last summer’s unsettled weather was also due to the jet stream being further south than normal. It certainly looks like the jet stream will remain further south than normal for the next ten days.â€

     

    MeteoGroup forecaster Nick Prebble added: “The jet stream moving south is expected to be the catalyst for low pressure with more widespread rain. “The jet stream can get stuck in a rut, as with the awful weather last summer.†Severe floods last summer put more than 1,000 homes under water and caused £500million of damage — five years after 55,000 properties were flooded due to a southerly jet stream in 2007. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “The general pattern for the rest of May is showery conditions, although perhaps later in the month will see drier and brighter spells.â€

     

     

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

     

    Soggy summer II

     

    Washout fears for Glasto, F1 and Wimbledon

     

    BRITAIN is braced for another summer soaking to follow last year’s floods — with festival-goers facing a washout. The Met Office yesterday warned that “unsettled conditions†would last to the end of May and beyond. And there are already fears that heavy rain could put a dampener on the Isle of Wight and Glastonbury festivals, Wimbledon tennis and the Silverstone Grand Prix.

    Jet stream winds flowing 2,000 miles south of their normal position — the same reason for last year’s downpours — are to blame for the miserable weather. Met Office forecaster Reid Morrison said: “Last summer’s unsettled weather was also due to the jet stream being further south than normal. It certainly looks like the jet stream will remain further south than normal for the next ten days.â€

     

    MeteoGroup forecaster Nick Prebble added: “The jet stream moving south is expected to be the catalyst for low pressure with more widespread rain. “The jet stream can get stuck in a rut, as with the awful weather last summer.†Severe floods last summer put more than 1,000 homes under water and caused £500million of damage — five years after 55,000 properties were flooded due to a southerly jet stream in 2007. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “The general pattern for the rest of May is showery conditions, although perhaps later in the month will see drier and brighter spells.â€

     

     

    You have got to be joking! No way can this years summer be as bad as last years. They say this now, then come the end of June, it'll be the record breaking heat that will be making the headlines. 

    Anything they seem to say, the opposite tends to happen, so I'm sticking with my gut instinct!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    I think there is a bit of journalistic tweaking/exaggeration going on with that article. It does look unsettled for most of the rest of the month, but that doesn't equal "summer is over" before it officially is due to begin.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    This is from The Sun so I would take it with a pinch of salt. On top of that it says next ten days....erm that is still May.

    Do not believe the date on that paper. ODIOUS right-wing rag.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    This is from The Sun so I would take it with a pinch of salt. On top of that it says next ten days....erm that is still May.Do not believe the date on that paper. ODIOUS right-wing rag.

     

    fully agree.... however... they might just be right, regardless of who printed it.

     

    as things stand, is there really any tangible room for optimism?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    fully agree.... however... they might just be right, regardless of who printed it.

     

    as things stand, is there really any tangible room for optimism?

    Well, casting my mind back to those 'scintillating' Mays of yesteryear: 1975, 1995 and 1996 come to mind...Then, yes, there is...Posted Image

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Soggy summer II Washout fears for Glasto, F1 and Wimbledon

    yet another example of mixing quotes from differing sources and using it to print a story that only one of the quotes actually mentioned.The media is very good at this type of thing.Best read the 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks to read what UK Met have actually said.
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    There is room for optimism. Even 2006 was a duff May.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    an interesting post, but i dont understand this result. (sorry for being dim). the results of that show that theres no clear indicator as to what the summer might be like... 2006 might have ticked the boxes in all 8 criteria, but 75, 76, 83, 95, 03, (all great summers) didnt.

     

    what am i missing?

     

    Hi. I tried  to use the trend in certain conditions (NAO, AO, PDO, AMO, QBO) and the forecasts for others (ENSO, sunspots, snowcover), and with these criteria, I ranked each years since 1950 based on the number of matches with 2013.

    2006 was the only year to match all criteria.

    With the other years, for example, 1976, it didn't have the same recent trend of -ve values for the AO and NAO. It didn't have the low snow cover, it was during a -ve AMO (rather than +ve now) period and its QBO was moderate +ve and stable, as opposed to low +ve and rising.

    Other years you mentioned would similarly have not matched numerous criteria due to having different teleconnective states and trends, and so were left out of the final composite maps.

    Hope that helps.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barry, Vale of Glamorgan
  • Location: Barry, Vale of Glamorgan

    Hi All

     

    I don't post very often on here 'cos I'm not well versed in following weather charts, synoptics and the like but I really enjoy reading the posts of those who do.  Vantage Weather Services (VWS) formerly Positive Weather Solutions have just today released their summer forecast for 2013.  VWS of course is Mr Jonathan Powell who I know gets a fair amount of press coverage on here - usually bad.  Now, DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER, I'm only posting what VWS/Powell are saying for this year so here goes:

     

    Vantage Weather Services

    Summer 2013: Some short-lived spells of fine, dry, warm or very warm weather, but over all, not the best of Summers.

    June 2013

    After a chiefly disappointing April and May, the likelihood of a further mixed pattern for the duration of June seems to be the most likeliest scenario.  June looks set to be fairly typical of the summer's of late, as it will often be dominated by variability with a largely westerly drift. The wettest and freshest weather being to the north and west, whilst to the south and east, (particularly the far south and south east), the chance of at times more summer-like weather.  Indeed, there may well be some pleasant spells of warm to very warm sunshine in these parts, but in general, any warmer phases of weather aren't likely to be sustained.  June may well yield average to above average rainfall, with temperatures likely to come in on the average.

    July 2013

    There is the distinct possibility that July will follow on from June as being a poor month with plenty of rain around and disappointing temperatures.  To the north and west, generally unsettled once more, with cool and wet weather tending to dominate, with the south and east fairing somewhat better.  That said, there is the possibility of fine weather building in during July that will spread widely to other parts for a time, and perhaps it is July where we'll see the best of this year's summer weather.  When the sunshine does arrive, expect temperatures to climb nicely particularly across central, southern, and south eastern areas, with 30 plus Celsius possibly being achieved and surpassed.  However, thunderstorms will probably bring any heat to an abrupt end.  Over all, July will come in on the average to above average for rainfall, with temperatures in the average.

    August 2013

    August could witness a general deterioration in conditions across much of the UK, with parts that were fairing better during previous months also succumbing to poorer weather.  Depressions from the Atlantic will starve the UK of any fine weather and for the most part, an unsettled and fluid month looks likely.  Again, especially to the south and east, there is the potential for some short-lived warmth, but any heat will most likely end with thunderstorm activity.  During August we could well see temperatures in the mid to high 20's Celsius at times, but generally and for the most part, mid to late teen figures.  A wetter than average August is expected, with temperatures on or around the average.

    VWS

    Sunday May 12th 2013

     

    It would be interesting to see what some of you guys make of this.  As I understand it Powell NEVER says how he arrives at his forecasts and won't divulge any information as to how he compiles them.  Based on what he says however, he's not far away from what some of you have been saying for this year.  I'm sure some of you will want to comment!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Hi. I tried  to use the trend in certain conditions (NAO, AO, PDO, AMO, QBO) and the forecasts for others (ENSO, sunspots, snowcover), and with these criteria, I ranked each years since 1950 based on the number of matches with 2013.

    2006 was the only year to match all criteria.

    With the other years, for example, 1976, it didn't have the same recent trend of -ve values for the AO and NAO. It didn't have the low snow cover, it was during a -ve AMO (rather than +ve now) period and its QBO was moderate +ve and stable, as opposed to low +ve and rising.

    Other years you mentioned would similarly have not matched numerous criteria due to having different teleconnective states and trends, and so were left out of the final composite maps.

    Hope that helps.

     

    yes thanks :)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    What was summer 1981 like?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    What was summer 1981 like?

     

    CET wise, a little on the cool side. Averaged 15.0C.

     

    June .....13.2C 

    July ...... 15.5C

    August . 16.2C

     

    Dunno about sunshine or precip values though.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    CET wise, a little on the cool side. Averaged 15.0C.

     

    June .....13.2C 

    July ...... 15.5C

    August . 16.2C

     

    Dunno about sunshine or precip values though.

    It had some cracking thunderstorms...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...