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I want 2007 again. With bells on. There's still time.

 

You've had your fair share recently - our turn this year Posted Image

 

I remember sat in the pub on a soaking cold July 2007 evening with everyone really depressed. Terrible times!

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You've had your fair share recently - our turn this year Posted Image

 

I remember sat in the pub on a soaking cold July 2007 evening with everyone really depressed. Terrible times!

 

Sat 21st maybe? was only 13C max that day as well, Cant say I am a heat fan, but prefer it to Jul 2007, and child of nadine

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An absolutely horrendous summer was 2007. So many properties around here flooded out as was the case in South Yorkshire and the southwest too during July.

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Have to say the recent artcle in the daily star is an unsubstantiated claim that we are going to have one of the coldest Mays followed by a wet June. Have they seen the output from the recent seasonal model output? I don't think so.Rant over.

Whilst I hardly rate the tabloid press above bog paper, I don't see that the CFS is a lot of use, either...I'm sure it was, until quite recently anyway, predicting a summer dominated by cold, wet nastiness?

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An absolutely horrendous summer was 2007. So many properties around here flooded out as was the case in South Yorkshire and the southwest too during July.

 

In the Midlands it was terrible. I remember May being like this, but the second half TERRIBLE - The Bank Holiday weekend was a washout. I was drenched on the Sunday attending an audition which my hair and clothes were SOAKED through. June was hit and miss, July awful and August was better, but there was nice weather in September and October...surprise, surprise.

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I want 2007 again. With bells on. There's still time.

I know you hate the sun, but if you want to see the price of your food raise, people lose their homes, some even killed then maybe you may want something slightly toned down.

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I know you hate the sun, but if you want to see the price of your food raise, people lose their homes, some even killed then maybe you may want something slightly toned down.

 

Nope, no way; I want the extremest of the extreme. Meanwhile, the misery goes on.

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Whilst I hardly rate the tabloid press above bog paper, I don't see that the CFS is a lot of use, either...I'm sure it was, until quite recently anyway, predicting a summer dominated by cold, wet nastiness?

That trend seems to have backed away now, it's fair to say that looking at the meteociel site that the CFS updates are excellent and it nailed the very cold march. On a lot of runs since April it's opted for mid lattitide blocking rather than high lattitide blocking which would determine its no outlier by any stretch. Even CreweCold would back me up on it I think. Was speaking to Gavin partridge in a private tweet and he seems to reckon we are possibly going to have a nice June, maybe even decent if we are lucky.
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That trend seems to have backed away now, it's fair to say that looking at the meteociel site that the CFS updates are excellent and it nailed the very cold march. On a lot of runs since April it's opted for mid lattitide blocking rather than high lattitide blocking which would determine its no outlier by any stretch. Even CreweCold would back me up on it I think.Was speaking to Gavin partridge in a private tweet and he seems to reckon we are possibly going to have a nice June, maybe even decent if we are lucky.

 

I can back you up. I think some people are viewing the unmodified CFS when making judgements against it, or even viewing individual runs to which there will be a lot of variance. The anomaly charts are, in my opinion, an excellent forecast tool.....especially when you average the runs and look for the majority solution.

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Summer 1999 was quite a memorable summer CreweCold IMHO anyway, not only was it the last summer of the twentieth century, not only did it have the eclipse of the sun but it was also a very interesting pattern. Not always for the right reasons but a fascinating season nevertheless. An ok June, excellent July and a thundery august. People forget about that season, I don't.

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Summer 1999 was quite a memorable summer CreweCold IMHO anyway, not only was it the last summer of the twentieth century, not only did it have the eclipse of the sun but it was also a very interesting pattern. Not always for the right reasons but a fascinating season nevertheless. An ok June, excellent July and a thundery august. People forget about that season, I don't.

Summer 2000 was the last summer of the 20th century. ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_century

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What is the difference between a nice June,  and a decent one..?

No difference in my eyes. They both would be above average in terms of temperature and have just above average Sunshine and low-average rainfall. Now a great June would be something like 1976. Although i'm sure the Junes of 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970 and 2003 would be approaching great. But personally there was not enough high pressure in June 2003 for it to be classed as great.

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I believe Snowking is going for a wet, cool summer? I personally think this will be wide of the mark. I don't know what Chiono is thinking though.I'm thinking along the lines of a warm, perhaps hot June and an unsettled late July and August spell? Overall drier and warmer than average remains the favoured outcome for me.Sorry it's brief, still having to use my phone!Will perhaps do a run down of various indicators once my internet is back up and running next Friday.

Sorry i've been pretty busy recently so have been away from this thread for a while

 

Just to clear up CC - my thoughts from the preliminary research were for below average temperatures but rainfall around average - which will prove a bit of a shock to the system given the deluges of last summer!

 

So certainly better than 2012 (which isn't particularly difficult to achieve) but given a projected mean 500mb anomaly pattern suggestive of toughing primarily just to the East of the UK, still not fantastic.

 

The only real straw to clutch is that the composites created do suggest high pressure never too far away from the South-West of the UK (similar to the last few weeks really) which may give southern areas in particular some periods of respite.

 

One more tidbit - analysing the similar analogue years (QBO and ENSO based primarily) the best chance of a prolonged settled spell is around the final week of May and the first two weeks of June, so thats certainly one to watch out for to see what sort of shape my current forecast is in.

 

Kind Regards

SK

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Snow king I am wondering with whether there are any more analogue years to add to the list my friend? I know you have 1978 and 1962 in the list. Was wondering whether other years such as 1969 are in there too? As that is what Stewart Rampling aka glacier point alluded us too.

Also where do you expect the ve NAO to be based this summer and how will that affect the atmosphere?

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I know you hate the sun, but if you want to see the price of your food raise, people lose their homes, some even killed then maybe you may want something slightly toned down.

 

 

Well you better hope for a mild winter from now on then Luke if your that concerned about all of the above. Each to their own what they want during the summer.

 

Its too early what this summer will deliver but as per usual it will be the case of waiting and seeing what happens. Would love too see a good ol' night time thunderstorm though.

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I think the question of a nice vs. decent June is rather subjective- the prevailing response in the model discussion area would be different to what it would be in the convection/storms area.

In my case the extent of positive sunshine anomalies tends to be the largest individual factor (i.e. in most cases I will regard a month with positive anomalies of 10 to 25% as decent and over 25% as great) but there are exceptions, depending on the other factors.

One idea could be to use Kevin's summer index (originally based on Manchester but can be applied to other locations). My perceptions of summer months tend to be closely correlated with the results from his index, and this in spite of my being a big fan of convective events, so I imagine that those with the traditional "consistently warm, dry and sunny" standpoint will be even better served.

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According to summer blizzard on the ssts thread is that the pacific has apparently gone into la Nina, so that means that the analogues have changed yet again for the summer. Seems as though it really is going to be a hard season to pin down indeed!!!

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According to summer blizzard on the ssts thread is that the pacific has apparently gone into la Nina, so that means that the analogues have changed yet again for the summer. Seems as though it really is going to be a hard season to pin down indeed!!!

 

Only headed that way, could change.

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Does anyone have the UV index for Thornborough this weekend just gone?

 

Was part of a film crew at the fire festival up there and my skin now looks like I wandered too close to a thermonuclear weapons test site.

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UV levels are very high - I got very pink/sore arms from just a few hours cycling (10am-12noon) then an hour or so in the pub (12-1:30) especially on the side facing the sun in the pub.

Wasn't there something about ozone depletion this year making the UV index higher?

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What is the difference between a nice June,  and a decent one..?

 A nice June is one where it hammers it down constantly, and a decent one is where it hammers it down constantly with a bit of wind thrown in for good measure - so not much difference at all, really. At least things are looking up somewhat from tomorrow.

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