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Summer 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

But in the same year?. coldest winter since  god knows when.. followed by a spring in similar manner.

 

It wasn't a particularly cold winter, but the Spring was relatively cold.

 

A July of 19.1C or higher would give the largest increase from the Spring CET to the July CET on record.

To get the largest increase from Spring to Summer CET, we'd need July and August to average over 19.1C, which isn't realistic.

For the biggest increase from June to July in a single year, a July of 19.2C or higher is needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Just past the half-way point of summer 2013 now,and the difference between the first half last

year compared to this year couldn't be more stark!

 

2012..  2013..

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Info on past events (goes all away back to 11000BC!) can be viewed here if anyone is interested:

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/2000_on.htm#2000-2050

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Many readers will be familiar with the warmest months on record in the CET series (July 2006, 19.7 etc).

 

However, I thought it might be interesting to ignore the calendar, and find the warmest 31-day periods ever recorded in the CET daily era (1772-present). To do that, I took my excel file of daily CET values and applied a filter of 31-day means to the summer half year (May-Oct fully covered). Since we could assume these warmest periods were mainly within June to August, this was certainly a wide enough filter. These are the results of the "calendar-free" warmest months on record. The list only permits a warm spell to appear once, most of these would register almost as high from different starting dates. These are all the years that exceeded 18.50 for 31 days. Two months would be permitted in one summer if they did not overlap.

 

Rank _ Temp _ Year __ "month"

__________________________________

 

 1 . 20.31 __ 1995 __ 24 Jul to 23 Aug

 2 . 20.22 __ 1976 __ 22 Jun to 22 Jul

 3 . 19.73 __ 2006 __ 30 Jun to 30 Jul

 4 . 19.53 __ 1911 __ 21 Jul to 20 Aug

 5 . 19.51 __ 1983 __  2 Jul to 1 Aug

 6 . 19.35 __ 1975 __ 16 Jul to 15 Aug

 7 . 19.19 __ 2003 __ 23 Jul to 22 Aug*

 8 . 19.16 __ 1997 __ 25 Jul to 24 Aug

 9 . 19.10 __ 1947 __ 25 Jul to 24 Aug

10. 19.06 __ 1868 __ 7 Jul to 6 Aug

11. 18.92 __ 1783 __ 29 Jun to 29 Jul

12. 18.89 __ 1852 __ 3 Jul to 2 Aug

13. 18.87 __ 1808 __ 6 Jul to 5 Aug*

14. 18.85 __ 1921 __ 3 Jul to 2 Aug

15. 18.63 __ 1990 __ 13 Jul to 12 Aug

 

* periods also same CET value starting one day later

 

So these are actually the warmest "months" and the list is slightly different from calendar months.

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

Nice work, Roger. We will hold you to a winter version in 6 months!

Looks like Mid July - mid August is most likely to bring the real heat; a period I've always considered "high summer". I wonder if mid January - mid February is the winter equivalent?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted · Hidden by Methuselah, July 18, 2013 - It's already there, D...
Hidden by Methuselah, July 18, 2013 - It's already there, D...

Many readers will be familiar with the warmest months on record in the CET series (July 2006, 19.7 etc).

However, I thought it might be interesting to ignore the calendar, and find the warmest 31-day periods ever recorded in the CET daily era (1772-present). To do that, I took my excel file of daily CET values and applied a filter of 31-day means to the summer half year (May-Oct fully covered). Since we could assume these warmest periods were mainly within June to August, this was certainly a wide enough filter. These are the results of the "calendar-free" warmest months on record. The list only permits a warm spell to appear once, most of these would register almost as high from different starting dates. These are all the years that exceeded 18.50 for 31 days. Two months would be permitted in one summer if they did not overlap.

Rank _ Temp _ Year __ "month"

__________________________________

1 . 20.31 __ 1995 __ 24 Jul to 23 Aug

2 . 20.22 __ 1976 __ 22 Jun to 22 Jul

3 . 19.73 __ 2006 __ 30 Jun to 30 Jul

4 . 19.53 __ 1911 __ 21 Jul to 20 Aug

5 . 19.51 __ 1983 __ 2 Jul to 1 Aug

6 . 19.35 __ 1975 __ 16 Jul to 15 Aug

7 . 19.19 __ 2003 __ 23 Jul to 22 Aug*

8 . 19.16 __ 1997 __ 25 Jul to 24 Aug

9 . 19.10 __ 1947 __ 25 Jul to 24 Aug

10. 19.06 __ 1868 __ 7 Jul to 6 Aug

11. 18.92 __ 1783 __ 29 Jun to 29 Jul

12. 18.89 __ 1852 __ 3 Jul to 2 Aug

13. 18.87 __ 1808 __ 6 Jul to 5 Aug*

14. 18.85 __ 1921 __ 3 Jul to 2 Aug

15. 18.63 __ 1990 __ 13 Jul to 12 Aug

* periods also same CET value starting one day later

So these are actually the warmest "months" and the list is slightly different from calendar months.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Sorry about copying post above, anyhow it confirms my memory of summer 95 having a very sustained warm period with consistently high temps. Interesting to note August 97, often forgotten. It was unusual in being wet and warm, all others ranked higher as listed were dry periods. July 83 is very rarely mentioned, prob because thejune and aug were nothing special. Will be interesting to see if we can record a 31 day period this year which can feature on the list, we have another 18 days to go yet, if we can beat off the atlantic then yes i think we will, this is.the optimum time of year for sustained heat, we are entering high summer roughly about 20 july to 15 August on average the warmest core period of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No probs, D...I was in the Scottish Highlands in '95...What a summer!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

I am probably wrong here, but didn't the very hot spell in July 2006 produce SOME rain and thunderstorms? I do remember popping up the shops one Saturday and it was pouring it down, but very warm - I couldn't care what anyone thought with me going out in it and happy lol.

 

There seems to be no end in sight for this warm spell.....though I have to admit being a heat lover, this has got a bit too much. We do need the rain.

Edited by nn2013
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

July 2013 has been a warm and un-usually dry month here so far

 

The average high is 24.5c (to the 17th)

 

The average low is 13.6c (to the 17th)

 

Rainfall is just 5mm (to the 18th)

 

Thankfully last years rainfall means we're not in any drought worries for now with reservoirs at normal levels for the time of year

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

 

Rank _ Temp _ Year __ "month"

__________________________________

 

 1 . 20.31 __ 1995 __ 24 Jul to 23 Aug

 2 . 20.22 __ 1976 __ 22 Jun to 22 Jul

 3 . 19.73 __ 2006 __ 30 Jun to 30 Jul

...

15. 18.63 __ 1990 __ 13 Jul to 12 Aug

 

Good work Roger, thanks for posting your results.  I'm quite surprised to see 1995 above both 1976 and 2006; I'd have expected it to have been 3rd behind both of those.  It also illustrates nicely how the hottest part of the 2006 spell fell almost exatcly in to the calendar month helping to break the CET record.  Nice to see 1990 in there - I remember that being a scorcher as I was 12 at the time, and remember thinking it was the hottest weather I'd experienced! 

 

It certainly feels like this current spell should feature in that chart, but perhaps the notable lack of any warm summer spells since 2006 has coloured my judgement into thinking it is warmer than it is.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

just been looking up figures for 1911,what an incredible summer that was.the driest and sunniest july in these parts and much of the countryalso had a hot may and September...check it out!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

I'd heard about 1911 before and for dry, warm weather lovers it must have been a brilliant Summer.

CET figures:

May: 12.9

June: 14.5

July: 18.2

August: 18.2

September: 13.9

All months from May to September were above average, with May, July and August all well above.

EWP figures:

May: 37.2

June: 79.1

July: 15.8

August: 54.9

September: 64.2

July stands out as being incredibly dry, similar to this month although we could be looking at even lower values this July. I know people have also been commenting on the longevity of the current heat but Summer 2013 still has a long way to go to match the back-to-back 18.2C CET values for July and August 1911!

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Expect the unexpected for August as no one really saw this July coming.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I suspect August will be warm but minima driven as the mean trough will be close to the Uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Expect the unexpected for August as no one really saw this July coming.

 

To be fair, a few members in the seasonal forecast thread including Roger J Smith and Alex did predict a good summer this year (Alex singled out the possibility of a dry July back in May based on CFS v2).  Snowking also forecasted the start of the warm, settled spell very well in the model threads I think. 

 

It will be interesting to see what happens after next week's potential synoptic change, as Roger's forecast was going for a dry summer throughout interspersed with some storms, while if I remember correctly Snowking was anticipating a breakdown to unsettled conditions come the end of the month and into August (apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick here).

 

I'm hoping it will stay dry for August as my son is in school and doesn't break up until next week, and I'm hoping we can go on some trips to the seaside!

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I'm no weather expert,but looking  at the jet stream  from the  predicted route its going to take in the next few days.If it goes south and pressure is higher to the north of it.Would the weather in general  be settled? I thinking of early June. The jet stream was  south of the uk but pressure was high.It was  nice for the first  couple of weeks of that month.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Well, as much as I don't want to admit it, it does appear that the heatwave will come to an end quicker than anticipated, even the ECM brings forward the breakdown, though still looking hot until Wednesday. Hope we get some fierce storms on Tuesday, otherwise, looks like a period of thoroughly uninteresting weather to come - comfortable, but boring. Oh well, July 2013 was good. August always disappoints in recent years.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

August has not been a summer month at all in recent years-surely it's time for that to change! Amazingly August has recorded just one day over 25C here since 2007. 

Indeed.  Post 2004 August has also been the only month of the year not to record a single monthly CET in the "well above average category".

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Sorry about copying post above, anyhow it confirms my memory of summer 95 having a very sustained warm period with consistently high temps. Interesting to note August 97, often forgotten. It was unusual in being wet and warm, all others ranked higher as listed were dry periods. July 83 is very rarely mentioned, prob because thejune and aug were nothing special. Will be interesting to see if we can record a 31 day period this year which can feature on the list, we have another 18 days to go yet, if we can beat off the atlantic then yes i think we will, this is.the optimum time of year for sustained heat, we are entering high summer roughly about 20 july to 15 August on average the warmest core period of the year.

 

think 97 high placing is due to higher overnight minima then high daytime maxina... indeed summer 97 wasnt a 'hot' one like the other sunny summers/months were on that list.

 

Any prediction to what August will bring the uk this year? could we get another heatwave somewhere along the way?. Posted Image

 

not looking good for heat... IF the atlantic kicks in as currently expected after the messy breakdown. once that jet has kicked off and we get a mobile atlantic regime, its unlikely imho to go anywhere fast, so a return to sun/settled/heat is unlikely although autumn might be nice... (but september isnt summer... as per my sig)

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK

Since I have lived in the UK from 1997 there have been 5 previous above average (i.e.17+ on the CET) Julys (1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2010). Now 2013 will make a 6th above average July. Yet only once (in 2003) has a good August followed on.

 

As much as we were overdue a good Summer after 6 blank ones, we are massively overdue a good August. But then again there are plenty of Summers where July takes all and 2013 may end up just being a slightly upscale version of 1999 and 2010.

 

I wouldn't write off August just yet though. We can still get real heat right up until about the 20th I would say and so its not until about the 10th-12th  if there are no heatwaves in the forecast that I would say Summer is probably over. In other words some 2 weeks after the current outreaches of todays FI. More than enough time for the forthcoming breakdown to work its way through the system and the next stage to declare its hand.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

think 97 high placing is due to higher overnight minima then high daytime maxina... indeed summer 97 wasnt a 'hot' one like the other sunny summers/months were on that list.

 

 

not looking good for heat... IF the atlantic kicks in as currently expected after the messy breakdown. once that jet has kicked off and we get a mobile atlantic regime, its unlikely imho to go anywhere fast, so a return to sun/settled/heat is unlikely although autumn might be nice... (but september isnt summer... as per my sig)

When you get 30c on 1st of October,like we did  a couple of years ago.Heat is possible all the way upto that date. I've know plenty of Octobers where we have 70f or so for  a few days..  August won't be has warm as this July.But  there wil be days  inbetween  the atlantic   jet, where the weather will be nice. And i still  think we will get a couple of weeks  of fine weather in there somewhere along the line.I know  September  and October aren't  summer months.. But its well possible to get summer type days. I'd settle for an  average August, This  July as been exceptional, and to look for  a repeat in  August would be to much to ask.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted (edited) · Hidden by matty007, July 21, 2013 - Quoted wrong person.
Hidden by matty007, July 21, 2013 - Quoted wrong person.

 

Since I have lived in the UK from 1997 there have been 5 previous above average (i.e.17+ on the CET) Julys (1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2010). Now 2013 will make a 6th above average July. Yet only once (in 2003) has a good August followed on.

 

As much as we were overdue a good Summer after 6 blank ones, we are massively overdue a good August. But then again there are plenty of Summers where July takes all and 2013 may end up just being a slightly upscale version of 1999 and 2010.

 

I wouldn't write off August just yet though. We can still get real heat right up until about the 20th I would say and so its not until about the 10th-12th  if there are no heatwaves in the forecast that I would say Summer is probably over. In other words some 2 weeks after the current outreaches of todays FI. More than enough time for the forthcoming breakdown to work its way through the system and the next stage to declare its hand.

 

 

Of course September is in Summer. It always greatly annoys me that people seem to think Summer comes to an end on September 1st or 4th for when the holidays are over, the same as people seem to think that June 1st is Summer, or even the middle of May some people!! I don't consider Summer over until the last week of September and even then I've known Indian summers and very warm weather at the end of September or beginning of October. 

 

You can't put an end date of a season on the start date of the month, like September, especially as the sun's relativity to the Earth, and Meteorologists dictate that the end of Summer is technically September 21st. Even then you can still have very warm weather before or after that date. 

Edited by matty007
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