Summer 2013

[Weather-history]

18 years ago, a thundery trough spread northwards

BBC Northwest on the storms

Are we going to see one of these this summer?

Edited July 11, 2013 by Weather-history

[IanR]

Wow, even  chesire/lancashire getting hundreds of bolts knocking out many power lines , can you imagine that now, the storm thread would be in meltdown,

So no, we will not get any like that this summer, I would confidently put money on it, them days are gone IMO,

 

Hope I am wrong, but deep down......

[weatherguru14]

What an amazing day today... So gorgeous outside.. Summer 2013 is turning  into  one of the better summers.2007 was mentioned  previously

[Buzzit]

I believe this summer will have above average temperatures and below average precipitation. All in all an excellent summer but not sure if it will reach 2003 levels... (my mother re-married on the hottest day of the year in 2003 - needless to say a lot of beverages needed to be consumed ) My biggest concern is that we may not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern this year. No entrenched northern blocking this summer. (no I am not Ken Ring)

Not doing too bad so far

[Summer Sun]

Well after 2 and 1/2 years on this forum the high pressure and high temperatures I've been searching for has finally arrived and now it doesn't want to leave in a hurry it had to arrive at some point and now it has.

 

[virtualsphere]

I know some folks in other parts of the UK haven't done as well, but it has been a spectacular summer here in Wales so far.   Definitely the best summer weather for us since 2006, even if it breaks down later next week and then rains for the whole of August.  If it doesn't break down, we might even be in with a slim chance of recording a better summer than 2006 here for sunshine making it the best since 1995!

[summer blizzard]

Out of interested i just had a look at the CET records to find other summers which saw a <14C to >17C transition (possibly one of the largest?) from June and July to see what August produced.

 

Since 1950 only 3 summers fit the bill...

 

1999 (13.9, 17.7, 16.1)

1991 (12.1, 17.3, 17.1)

1955 (13.8, 17.7, 18.1) 

 

It seems then (if we include 1991 despite the June CET being well below) that there's a slight bias towards an above average August here however the most recent analogue is the coolest.

[weatherguru14]

The contrast between March and July this year is draw dropping..Am not 100% convinced on global warming.But something is going on with the climate?Cant remember a  July as warm has this,maybe 2006 comes close.

[hillbilly]

The contrast between March and July this year is draw dropping..Am not 100% convinced on global warming.But something is going on with the climate?Cant remember a  July as warm has this,maybe 2006 comes close.

there have been plenty of julys as good as this if you dig out some statistics,just we have forgot in the last 6 years.nice to have had a proper winter and now a proper summer,i am happy!!!!

[Derp Patrol]

The contrast between March and July this year is draw dropping..Am not 100% convinced on global warming.But something is going on with the climate?Cant remember a  July as warm has this,maybe 2006 comes close.

 

 

The last 6 years have been a bit of an anomaly in terms of our climate. Prior to 2007, spells like this is summer were much more common 

[Relativistic]

The last 6 years have been a bit of an anomaly in terms of our climate. Prior to 2007, spells like this is summer were much more common

The way this month is going we could be looking at one of the warmest July's on the CET record. Is that really common?

[Methuselah]

The last 6 years have been a bit of an anomaly in terms of our climate. Prior to 2007, spells like this is summer were much more common 

True...But, then again, prior to 1975, they were almost non-existent? We have short memories, all of us; especially concerning the years before we were born... 

[Milhouse]

If it stays like this for the rest of the month, which the models indicate could happen, then it would put this month up there with the very best alongside August 95 or July 83.

[cheese]

We exceeded 30C in both of those months, so that is the only thing missing - notably high maximum temperatures. We even reached 31C in June 2011, but of course that was 2-day affair.

Edited July 16, 2013 by cheese

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's very much possible that this month could finish above 19C.

 

For a bit of perspective... There have been twenty March CETs below 3C, and just two July's above 19C.

 

So getting a July CET above 19C is ten times less likely than a March below 3C....

[Derp Patrol]

The way this month is going we could be looking at one of the warmest July's on the CET record. Is that really common?

 

 

It will go nowhere near beating 2006.. 2006 was what we are seeing now, but increase temperatures by about 5 degrees. I remember 2006 seeing temperatures above 32C for weeks, whereas during this spell, that has been the max temperature so far. In 2006 my average max temp here for July was 28.5C ! But nevertheless it will beat quite a few as that was an exceptional month.

 

I'm not saying that spells like this were common, but prior to 2007 it was quite common to have 2 week spells of high pressure over the UK. Since 2006 it has only been the south east who have had weather like this.

 

This spell is notable for length of it, but nothing more really. Temperatures in the high 20s are to be expected at some point in each summer month.

Edited July 16, 2013 by robthefool

[Derp Patrol]

True...But, then again, prior to 1975, they were almost non-existent? We have short memories, all of us; especially concerning the years before we were born... 

 

That's true.. although I think that our climate has definitely changed since then, albeit by a couple of degrees at most. Since 2003 we have broken record max temps for January,July, August, October. We definitely live in a much warmer place now, and bar the last 6 summers (some have been ok here, although definitely not everywhere) I think that trend will continue

[weatherguru14]

It's very much possible that this month could finish above 19C.

 

For a bit of perspective... There have been twenty March CETs below 3C, and just two July's above 19C.

 

So getting a July CET above 19C is ten times less likely than a March below 3C....

But in the same year?. coldest winter since  god knows when.. followed by a spring in similar manner.

[Relativistic]

It will go nowhere near beating 2006.. 2006 was what we are seeing now, but increase temperatures by about 5 degrees. I remember 2006 seeing temperatures above 32C for weeks, whereas during this spell, that has been the max temperature so far. In 2006 my average max temp here for July was 28.5C ! But nevertheless it will beat quite a few as that was an exceptional month.I'm not saying that spells like this were common, but prior to 2007 it was quite common to have 2 week spells of high pressure over the UK. Since 2006 it has only been the south east who have had weather like this.This spell is notable for length of it, but nothing more really. Temperatures in the high 20s are to be expected at some point in each summer month.

Fair enough, I see your point.

[Gustywind]

Out of interest does anyone know the max temp recorded in the uk during the summer of 76?

[Milhouse]

35.9c at Cheltenham

[summer blizzard]

The notion that the previous summers have been more of an anomaly than this month which will be around 2C above average is pretty funny. The previous summers have been anonymously wet but in regards to temperature this month beats them by a wide margin.

[Weather-history]

I wonder if this is going to be a one trick summer? One very good summer month but the other two nothing particularly special. 1999 is an example, 1901 is another.

June 2013 wasn't actually too bad.

[weatherguru14]

True June for  the western part of Britain inparticular was nice for most of the month..If we get a good August. 2013 will come out better than  2006 (in my opinion of course)

[be cause]

I wonder if this is going to be a one trick summer? One very good summer month but the other two nothing particularly special. 1999 is an example, 1901 is another.June 2013 wasn't actually too bad