Summer 2013

[Evening thunder]

Glad I've made someone happy!  Anyway... barbecues. What's the attraction? I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in wheeling out and setting up some Heath Robinson device to cook a very limited range of food al fresco. Then all the messin' around putting it away an' stuff. If that's your bag, why not do it properly indoors then take it outside?? It just smacks of going out of one's way to make a simple job difficult, just cos' it's the done thing to do at this horrible time of year. I hate the things, and the nearest you'll get me to a barbecue is a tube of Pringles.

 

Haha I completely agree! For some reason BBQs really wind me up. I think it's just the general mentality- 'sun's come out, I must go out of my way to cook outside'.

 

Haha there's no pleasing some people.. or even much point in attempting to explain.

 

I went to a BBQ last Monday with friends after a day at the beach, as well as being tasty food, had comfy chairs and a nice outside atmosphere and environment.. vary life a little, sitting in the same indoor room 365 evenings a year could be a bit boring.

 

Most people I know don't have one as soon as the sun's out or I'd have a BBQ like 100 days a year lol, just a different and nice way of eating occasionally and enjoying the outside and summer, esp with friends or a party as there might be not much space inside anyway.

 

like everything not everyone likes BBQ's, but what's the problem if other people want to have a BBQ sometimes though it's not your problem. Would be a bit odd to get annoyed at that and let it be your problem?

Edited June 10, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Bottesford]

Yeah the whole point of bbqs is to have the chance to be outside for the things you're forced to do indoors most of the time. 

The summer/warm season is so short here that people tend to leap at the chance when it comes along. It's a change from the norm. It's like wearing summer clothes, keeping the door open for air or just sitting outside to read - a nice change from the same four walls and in this country a rare treat indeed.

Life would be very dull, isolating and depressing if we all had to lock ourselves away indoors with window/doors/curtains closed the whole time.

[Tony27]

i have had to keep the windows shut last week as the easterly wind was making that ghost sound and it does my head in lol

 

as for bbq's i have no problem with them i only have them once or twice a year anyway

[Mountain Snow]

Second those posts above, this weather is quite rare, it's a lovely change to be able to sit outdoors till late in the evening eating and drinking. I'm quite fond of the smell of a BBQ drifting on the warm, evening air.

[Dusk1983]

does this chart scream 12c and slate grey skies ?http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013061006/gfs-0-6.png?6 cos that is what it is here today, dear me, a couple of days ago the forecast for today was sunny and 20c, forecast was wrong by 8c, in winter when it is forecast to be 8c it never ends up being 0c but thats just typical of this climate

 

Shhh, Tony! It's really bad form to pull up old charts and, you know, actually CHECK how accurate they were!

 

I know that seems like it should be the only goal of forecasting...

 

...but actually it's much more fun to stay locked in the future, always over the hill and far, far away from any pesky verification stats to put a dampener on our day...

Edited June 10, 2013 by Dusk1983

[mushymanrob]

While temperatures over the last week may have disappointed some, let's face it we were never promised a heatwave. In fact historically the first half of June is rarely hot. In the great summers of 1990 and 1995 it was cold and fairly wet until the last third and even in '76 the real heat didn't get going until the 21st. And though it looks like this week may be relatively unsettled it's nothing like last years horrendous June - just normal for the time of year.

 

but in 76 we had already had 2 'hot' spells, one in early may, one in late may, when temps hit the mid 20's... spring 90 was a good un too...

 

Glad I've made someone happy!  Anyway... barbecues. What's the attraction? I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in wheeling out and setting up some Heath Robinson device to cook a very limited range of food al fresco. Then all the messin' around putting it away an' stuff. If that's your bag, why not do it properly indoors then take it outside?? It just smacks of going out of one's way to make a simple job difficult, just cos' it's the done thing to do at this horrible time of year. I hate the things, and the nearest you'll get me to a barbecue is a tube of Pringles.

 

 ha ha... you are grumpier then me!

 

i like bbqs, not too many as you say the menu is limited, but to go outside, enjoy your garden, the atmosphere, the change of food (i mean, how often do you have bbq food indoors?). i do bbqs because i enjoy cooking and eating in my garden that ive spent so long preparing for summertime use.

[Methuselah]

[cheeky_monkey]

but in 76 we had already had 2 'hot' spells, one in early may, one in late may, when temps hit the mid 20's... spring 90 was a good un too...

 

 

may 1995 had a hot start as well mid to high 20s in the first week 10 days

[Eugene]

It's not just eastern areas that have been affected by the N.Sea cloud in the last few days.here in the heart of the Midlands we have had limited sunshine again today and feeling quite cool with the cloud only now breaking.A couple of days at the end of last week were predominately grey and chilly feeling too.

Anyway the Atlantic influence is now almost here so the cloud now will come from the west instead this week but hopefully with some sunny interludes and warmer feeling air in the mix it wont be too bad here.

For others further west and north possibly not so good though.

 

 

Well in mid/south Warwickshire which is a good bulk of Warwickshire after last Wednesday it has been sunny and warm almost every day, Monday the cloud was more stubborn but still it broke by about 6 pm in south Warwickshire and it was very pleasant indeed in the sun, not sure whats going on in the Nuneaton area but it sure doesn't sum up Warwickshire's weather since last Wednesday.

 

The atlantic will bring stronger winds and bands of rain so I wouldn't exactly call that an improvement though with cooler atlantic RPM air some sunshine is likely between rain bands.

[Summer Sun]

According to Matt Hugo on twitter the latest EC32 day maintains a predominantly cool and unsettled theme still throughout the rest of June and into early July.

[Thundery wintry showers]

may 1995 had a hot start as well mid to high 20s in the first week 10 days

Near the Tyne and Wear coast that spell was hotter than the May 1990 one- on the 4th May 1995 a sluggish south to south-westerly flow fended off the usual sea breezes and resulted in temperatures as high as 24 or 25C, even at places like Tynemouth.  In stark contrast sleet showers fell across parts of the region on the 11th and 12th, just a week later.  I think May 1990 was generally the warmer of the two spells inland though.

 

Indeed, the hot summers of 1976, 1990, 1995 and 2003 were all preceded by one or more exceptional hot spells in the spring that affected at least some of the country.  It also happened to a lesser extent in 1947 and 1959 and 2006, though in contrast the hot summers of 1975 and 1983 were both preceded by a cold spring with very few warm interludes.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Alex]

According to Matt Hugo on twitter the latest EC32 day maintains a predominantly cool and unsettled theme still throughout the rest of June and into early July.

Probably right but it never says anything different - it's like a stuck record!

[shedhead]

Probably right but it never says anything different - it's like a stuck record!

Probably because UK Summer weather has also become like a stuck record and given all the current available signals/information it has a fair chance of again being right....as does Matt.

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps for June have updated to cover July to September

 

850hpa temperature has a 20% chance of been above normal and 40 to 60% chance of below normal

 

Rainfall looks about average UK wide

 

 

Pressure has a 40% chance of been above normal

 

[William of Walworth]

I haven't got the link to what Ian Ferguson said, or what Matt Hugo said either.

 

But if you can find relevant links, our own AWD (Glastonbury Festival forecast thread) reckons IF's opinion is well different from what Matt 'throwaway writeoff summer tweet' Hugo is far too prone to toss out ...

 

FAR too early to predict even what's going to happen even for the weekend of Saturday 22nd June, let alone beyond that, Don't be a wrirter-offer Gavin! You of all people!

 

And re Matt Hugo's (stuck) track record :

 

Probably right but it never says anything different - it's like a stuck record!

 

Quite right. Miserable git!

Edited June 11, 2013 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Met Office can be overcautious pessimists too, IMO. Which is rationally justifiable, given how pessimism (and then some more) was the way to go for accuracy over the last few summers. But they've been proven wrong before and may be again. Uncertainty rules as ever in FI (ie beyond about the next 5? days at most?)

 

Lots of Low Pressure in FI can end up being downgraded -- just as FI High Pressure (or at least influence) can be underpredicted.

 

I make no predictions myself at this point, just advocating common sense.

Edited June 11, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Summer Sun]

I haven't got the link to what Ian Ferguson said, or what Matt Hugo said either.

 

But if you can find relevant links, our own AWD (Glastonbury Festival forecast thread) reckons IF's opinion is well different from what Matt 'throwaway writeoff summer tweet' Hugo is far too prone to toss out ...

 

FAR too early to predict even what's going to happen even for the weekend of Saturday 22nd June, let alone beyond that, Don't be a wrirter-offer Gavin! You of all people!

 

And re Matt Hugo's (stuck) track record :

 

 

Quite right. Miserable git!

 

I'm not writing anything off far from it

 

Ian's tweet can be found here - https://twitter.com/fergieweather

[William of Walworth]

^Ta!

[Evening thunder]

The met office probability maps for June have updated to cover July to September

 

850hpa temperature has a 20% chance of been above normal and 40 to 60% chance of below normal

 

Rainfall looks about average UK wide

 

 

Pressure has a 40% chance of been above normal

 

 

Oh interesting not too good, though at least we don't have as much chance of below average temps as southern Europe and the Med. Surprised there can be over 80% confidence of below, also kind of surprising considering the above average pressure anomalies shown stretching across that area. Maybe it's due to below average SST's in the Med which could go part way to explaining both.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Alex]

I haven't got the link to what Ian Ferguson said, or what Matt Hugo said either.But if you can find relevant links, our own AWD (Glastonbury Festival forecast thread) reckons IF's opinion is well different from what Matt 'throwaway writeoff summer tweet' Hugo is far too prone to toss out ...FAR too early to predict even what's going to happen even for the weekend of Saturday 22nd June, let alone beyond that, Don't be a wrirter-offer Gavin! You of all people!And re Matt Hugo's (stuck) track record :Quite right. Miserable git!

Lol, it wasn't a personal dig, I have alot of respect for Matt. It was more of a dig at the ECM 32 day outlook that does seem to be like a broken record when it comes to summer forecasting. On a different note, every Monday and Friday - I do my own two week outlook by analysis of models and teleconnections. If anyone fancies taking a look, it's on my twitter account - @alexbweather

[davehsug]

Gone rather humid this evening. Feels like the first Tm air we've had over us for a loong time!

[Bottesford]

Yes and its really lovely! Got to have my window open downstairs for a while (a real treat!) - nicely warmed & humidified the house. And no heating needed at last!

Midnight and still almost 16c - much much better for the garden and for pleasant evenings. Got a good deal of sunshine this evening too - a vast improvement on the chilly, cloudy conditions of recent days.

[Eugene]

The improvement continues for overnight/tomorrow with strong to gale force winds

[mushymanrob]

its not going to happen is it.... a nice hot dry sunny summer..

 

ok, it might not be as bad as 12, 07, 08... but theres no real sign of anything much better, save a day or two here and there. theres no sign of a first widespread 25c for one day, let alone several consecutive.  so forget thoughts of 06, 03, 95, 90, 83, 76, 75... anything 'good' is always in fi, just like the previous 6 summers (ok the southeast wasnt too bad the other year).

 

time to 'write off summer'?.. you know, it would be a pretty safe bet.

[Bottesford]

A cheery thought there mushy!

Even last year I got a few good sunny & warm days in the Lake District (of all places) and a bbq where I could sit out in shorts till 10pm. 

Admittedly I was lucky enough to time those events well with the only decent weather but still - we'll see at least something decent at some point even if only briefly.

This year has been worse than last for maximums & averages - still my yearly max it 22.1c. Very poor indeed and by far the latest I've had such a low max for in my years of recording (since April 2006).

All I'm looking for as a priority is something not horrendous and preferably decent on the 22nd of this month in Buxton. A tall order I know but I live in hope...