Summer 2013

[Thundery wintry showers]

The setup for early June 2013 is reminding me a lot of early June 2007, but with the difference that the North Sea is a few degrees cooler than it was then (in 2007 we had a record-breaking warm autumn and spring and a near record-breaking mild winter which left the SSTs exceptionally high, whereas here we've had a cool autumn, cold winter and very cold spring). 

 

The first third of June 2007 was warm away from the east coast, but not consistently approaching the mid-20s.  For example, at Topcliffe (the nearest site to my location) the mean max for 1st-10th June 2007 was 19.8C, and at Nottingham/Watnall (to quote a midland location) it was 20.1C.  At Cleadon near the Tyne and Wear coast, in contrast, it was just 15.5C.  I think that unless we get more favourable synoptics (i.e. a significant import of warmer air from the SE) the 1st-10th June 2013 values will probably be down on the 2007 values due to the cooler North Sea.

 

Regarding the 850hPa temperatures of 9C, on the charts that I'm seeing, these temperatures are only getting into the extreme south of England.  On this basis I don't think people are understating the temperatures at all.

[Costa Del Fal]

Im very impressed with the charts too. Strong heights seem to be willing to push in across Europe generally and keep reinforcing. No sign at all of any Atlantic muck. I havent seen these charts within a summer month for years!!! Long may it continue and may it restore some much needed faith in our summers! This is the one guys...

[SnowObsessor90]

Well the summer has now officially started, hopefully next week is merely a taster of the things to come

Edited May 31, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Harve]

The setup for early June 2013 is reminding me a lot of early June 2007, but with the difference that the North Sea is a few degrees cooler than it was then (in 2007 we had a record-breaking warm autumn and spring and a near record-breaking mild winter which left the SSTs exceptionally high, whereas here we've had a cool autumn, cold winter and very cold spring).  The first third of June 2007 was warm away from the east coast, but not consistently approaching the mid-20s.  For example, at Topcliffe (the nearest site to my location) the mean max for 1st-10th June 2007 was 19.8C, and at Nottingham/Watnall (to quote a midland location) it was 20.1C.  At Cleadon near the Tyne and Wear coast, in contrast, it was just 15.5C.  I think that unless we get more favourable synoptics (i.e. a significant import of warmer air from the SE) the 1st-10th June 2013 values will probably be down on the 2007 values due to the cooler North Sea. Regarding the 850hPa temperatures of 9C, on the charts that I'm seeing, these temperatures are only getting into the extreme south of England.  On this basis I don't think people are understating the temperatures at all.

I get why SSTs would have a big impact during unsettled weather, but how would they affect anything much when we're talking about settled weather with light winds and 'homegrown' heat? Not a rhetorical question, just wondering. Anyway, I suspect the relatively dry ground and air will mean below average minima but much far above average maxima. Perfect.

[mushymanrob]

The setup for early June 2013 is reminding me a lot of early June 2007, but with the difference that the North Sea is a few degrees cooler than it was then (in 2007 we had a record-breaking warm autumn and spring and a near record-breaking mild winter which left the SSTs exceptionally high, whereas here we've had a cool autumn, cold winter and very cold spring). 

 

The first third of June 2007 was warm away from the east coast, but not consistently approaching the mid-20s.  For example, at Topcliffe (the nearest site to my location) the mean max for 1st-10th June 2007 was 19.8C, and at Nottingham/Watnall (to quote a midland location) it was 20.1C.  At Cleadon near the Tyne and Wear coast, in contrast, it was just 15.5C.  I think that unless we get more favourable synoptics (i.e. a significant import of warmer air from the SE) the 1st-10th June 2013 values will probably be down on the 2007 values due to the cooler North Sea.

 

Regarding the 850hPa temperatures of 9C, on the charts that I'm seeing, these temperatures are only getting into the extreme south of England.  On this basis I don't think people are understating the temperatures at all.

 

so, caution then, if 07 started fine and summery only to deteriorate into one of the wettest summers on record, this current nice spell shouldnt be taken as any sort of indication as to what the rest of the summer might hold.

[Evening thunder]

I think I agree with Summer Blizzard that if we get 9C uppers over a decent enough part of the country with some sunshine and not too strong winds we are likely to see 23-25C in some places, perhaps most likely in sheltered parts of the west. Yesterday reached 22C in parts including at home in east Devon with 6-7C uppers (although the wind was northerly not easterly).

Have seen 26C at home earlier in May 2008 with uppers about 10C although the flow may have been slightly different then (still surface easterly at home which is often the best direction there)

 

Anyway this of course depends on whether we do get 8-10C (or higher) uppers drawn over the country.

as TWS says the synoptic set up with this spell looks quite similar to June 2007 so the settled spell now doesn't necessarily mean much for the rest of summer, but hopefully it won't follow that route. The ECM Op may not be such a good run in the longer term this morning.. but if that does happen I will enjoy this spell before that.

 

Edit: if you look at the first half of June 2007 on Weather Online quite a lot of days reached 23-25C in places some a bit higher: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1181386800&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph

Edited June 1, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Methuselah]

On the face of it, if all our surrounding seas are, say 2C colder than usual, one would expect land maxima to be also depressed slightly; but less so the further west and northwest you go. I'm guessing here, but why not just add 2C less than we usually would, when estimating surface maxima from 850 temps?

[weatherguru14]

Thankyou for the welcome   Why is 2007 being mentioned  in regards to this summer? Its the same  reading the model forums.. the user who is looking for cold weather has barely typed a message  in recent times. The coming week is looking pretty good. Lets worry about what will happen or not happen  after that.. the English summer is  simple.. the more nice days you get  the  better  the summer will turn out.. You are never guaranteed  3/4 months of great weather. I always count September has a summer month..

Though I know its officially autumn.. So first week  of summer is  looking  not to bad. That's  +1 for  summer 2013. 

[Summer Sun]

Thankyou for the welcome   Why is 2007 being mentioned  in regards to this summer? Its the same  reading the model forums.. the user who is looking for cold weather has barely typed a message  in recent times. The coming week is looking pretty good. Lets worry about what will happen or not happen  after that.. the English summer is  simple.. the more nice days you get  the  better  the summer will turn out.. You are never guaranteed  3/4 months of great weather. I always count September has a summer month..

Though I know its officially autumn.. So first week  of summer is  looking  not to bad. That's  +1 for  summer 2013. 

 

Yes I always class the first 3 weeks of September as summer simply because it can still get very warm the only downside then is the longer nights

[weatherguru14]

Yes I always class the first 3 weeks of September as summer simply because it can still get very warm the only downside then is the longer nights

I remember growing up..  at the end of summers we use to  get an autumn  high that use to stick around into October.. wasn't  hot  but the days  were  very pleasant.. Likes been  said  17c and   no wind   feels better than  21c and a NW wind...

We won't get a  summer like last  year, purely on the law of averages.

[NeilN]

No way 2012 will be repeated...that was a once in a while thing.

 

June is looking promising...a normal month. 

[The PIT]

Started off perfectly can rest of summer be like today? Okay we could have had a bit less of a breeze otherwise 10/10

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlooks summer forecast has been issued

 

Summer 2013: Best early on

 

Overview

Mixed but close to average summer, although on the cool side. The warmest and driest spells are most likely to be in the first half of the season with a risk of August being a poor month.

 

Temperature

 

A slightly cooler than average summer is expected. The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is expected to be 0.0C to 1.0C below the average.  

 

Precipitation

 

A slightly wetter than average summer is considered most likely. Over the three month period precipitation levels are expected to be between 90% to 115% of the average.
 

June

 

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average 

First half

The first half of June is expected to see a spell of dry, fine and settled conditions developing with temperatures close to or slightly above average. In the south it could become warm or very warm at times, but through the period there is likely to be an increasing risk of showers developing. Some of these could become heavy and thundery. Northern Britain should keep the fine weather for longer with temperatures remaining closer to the average.

Second half

The second half of the month looks set to bring mixed weather, with all parts of the country seeing showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some decent drier spells. Temperatures over the period will probably be close to the seasonal average.

 

July

 

Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month is expected to bring a mixed weather, although the emphasis may well be on drier and warmer conditions, especially in northern regions. Temperatures on the whole are likely to be close to the seasonal average.

Second half

During the second half of the month a trend towards unsettled weather is expected, bringing an increasing chance of some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain. Despite this some drier and warmer spells are still likely. Although temperatures are forecast  to be close to the seasonal average overall, significant variations are expected as the border between warm continental air and cooler air from the west and north becomes close to the Britain.

August

 

Temperature: Below average

Precipitation: Above average

First half

The first half of the month is expected to bring some drier warmer weather, but the emphasis is increasingly on unsettled and at times rather cool weather. Some heavy showers of longer spells of rain are expected with the chance of thundery showers. The best of the weather relative to average is expected further north and west.

Second half

The second half of the month is forecast to be mostly unsettled and often rather cool for the time of year. Significant rainfall is possible either in the form of persistent spells or heavy showers.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

[Costa Del Fal]

If the CFS is anything to go by, June is possibly going to be a really good month overall. Briefly slightly more unsettled in around 10 days time but it seems quite persistent on good Azores ridging beyond that for much of the rest of the month!

[hillbilly]

Im very impressed with the charts too. Strong heights seem to be willing to push in across Europe generally and keep reinforcing. No sign at all of any Atlantic muck. I havent seen these charts within a summer month for years!!! Long may it continue and may it restore some much needed faith in our summers! This is the one guys...

i hope you are right,or will have to concider emigrating

[Jon Somerset]

Absolutely. I thought I'd pop my head in and say how fine the weather is and how this late spring/early summer is the best since 2006 at least. Long may it continue. No complaints here. 

[laserguy]

Haven't y'all had enough of this tedious,odious sun and warmth? Roll on November.

[AderynCoch]

Haven't y'all had enough of this tedious,odious sun and warmth? Roll on November.

No.

 

Next question.

[Costa Del Fal]

Haven't y'all had enough of this tedious,odious sun and warmth? Roll on November.

After the last few days ive enjoyed with non stop sunshine, enjoying it with friends, having a laugh, exploring our wonderful coastline... I WOULDNT CHANGE THIS WEATHER FOR THE WORLD!

Edited June 3, 2013 by Blizzards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Haven't y'all had enough of this tedious,odious sun and warmth? Roll on November.

 

Or December?

 

[mushymanrob]

Haven't y'all had enough of this tedious,odious sun and warmth? Roll on November.

 

ha... assuming this is a joke, otherwise you are in for a very long haul, its only just turned summer, theres 13 weeks of potential sun and warmth (but its only been pleasant, not yet hot).

[laserguy]

ha... assuming this is a joke, otherwise you are in for a very long haul, its only just turned summer, theres 13 weeks of potential sun and warmth (but its only been pleasant, not yet hot).

 

No, I'm perfectly serious. But if I say "13 weeks" quickly enough it doesn't sound too bad. At least there's only two and a half weeks before the nights start drawing out!

[William of Walworth]

It's our turn this year laserguy. Unsettled preferrers absolutely filled their boots last 'summer', and in several earlier ones, notably 2007. So zero sympathy from me for anyone getting bored by 'too much' sun or warmth!

[laserguy]

It's our turn this year laserguy. Unsettled preferrers absolutely filled their boots last 'summer', and in several earlier ones, notably 2007. So zero sympathy from me for anyone getting bored by 'too much' sun or warmth!

 

You hope! But ye if it turns out that way I'm happy for you after the run of 'poor' summers of late. Only fair I s'pose but there'll be the usual muppets along in winter wanting mild sou'westers and the like, you watch!

[cheeky_monkey]

You hope! But ye if it turns out that way I'm happy for you after the run of 'poor' summers of late. Only fair I s'pose but there'll be the usual muppets along in winter wanting mild sou'westers and the like, you watch!

Why is someone a muppet for liking mild south westerlies in winter?