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Summer 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weren't you saying that last week about this week gavin Posted Image

 

You are beginning to sound like a stuck record Posted Image

 

The GFS ENS wasn't as good as it is today for this week yes this week did look settled at one point and to be fair in the west it is especially across Ireland where pressure is at its highest it is settled albeit not wall to wall sunshine

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Weather Online's forecast to mid June

 

Valid from 19/05 to 18/06 2013
Drier north

Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it!

There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!". It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine. Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now.

We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems.

*........25/05/13*

Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled. As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better. However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England.

*26/05/13.......01/06/13*

Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too. Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales. Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast.

*02/06/13......08/06/13*

Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times. The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast.

*09/06/13......15/06/13*

The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells.

*16/06/13......22/06/13*

Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low. Probably feeling milder too.

Simon & Capn Bob

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20130519

 

dont take it the wrong way but what use is such a vague forcast?you could just be describing the last 6 summers and southern areas have a much different climate to these parts

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Posted · Hidden by Methuselah, May 21, 2013 - Give it a rest, eh?
Hidden by Methuselah, May 21, 2013 - Give it a rest, eh?
If we had an easterly popping up for the last few frames of the ECM in December would you expect people to be talking about the mild stuff to come before it.

 

You are always saying comments like that, I haven't seen such anti cold propaganda from people like you and bottesford in my life, its very boring indeed, most people like crisp cold wintry weather not mild damp weather like you two like, even the current dross you both seem to like so don't lecture us on how we should act towards models past a reliable timeframe we are capable of making our own mind up thank you very much.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

But we are 10 days from summer, why should the discussion be aimed towards the cold lovers all 12 months of the year. The past few days have brought some more seasonal temperatures that one would expect at this time of year. Why should i hate that and want something colder like what weve had for the past 8 or so months.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

If we are to see a persistent northeasterly soon then please let it be like June 1995. Sadly, Horrible for us on the east coast but the mid to high 20s in the southwest. The rest of Summer was a cracker.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Amazing forecast that one, incredible to see Western Scotland with the highest temperatures at 30C. I also noticed the high moving up towards Iceland at the beginning of the forecast which would really set the alarm bells ringing for heat fans these days!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

If we are to see a persistent northeasterly soon then please let it be like June 1995. Sadly, Horrible for us on the east coast but the mid to high 20s in the southwest. The rest of Summer was a cracker.

 

Posted Image

Yep best summer of all time in my book...beats 76..with 2003 and 2006 not fit to lick its boots.

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Shocking ensemble mean gavin with high latitude blocking to our northwest, not sure why you are talking positively about that, all runs now agreeing with GFS more or less for early next week, your statement about GFS was incorrect as per usual it models the area just south of Greenland better than other models so you should never write it off like you did yesterday, lesson learn't I hope.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Amazing forecast that one, incredible to see Western Scotland with the highest temperatures at 30C. I also noticed the high moving up towards Iceland at the beginning of the forecast which would really set the alarm bells ringing for heat fans these days!

 

Yeah I thought just that, even appears to have just happened based on one GFS run in far FI, the same model that was supposedly rubbish the other day when it was wrong with settled weather.. lol

 

Shocking ensemble mean gavin with high latitude blocking to our northwest, not sure why you are talking positively about that, all runs now agreeing with GFS more or less for early next week, your statement about GFS was incorrect as per usual it models the area just south of Greenland better than other models so you should never write it off like you did yesterday, lesson learn't I hope.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?12

In that case a bit like the GFS it's self is likely to be then Posted Image

 

Also that looks like the GFS Control run to me not the ensemble mean, as it says 'Run de controle' on the top right and the ensemble mean won't show features as defined at T+300. 

 

 

One thing I have predicted and continue to predict this summer is what ever the actual outcome the GFS will throw up at least 1 or 2 outputs showing a Greenland High or similar in FI with the resultant claims that summer is over.

Edited by Stormmad26
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Shocking ensemble mean gavin with high latitude blocking to our northwest, not sure why you are talking positively about that, all runs now agreeing with GFS more or less for early next week, your statement about GFS was incorrect as per usual it models the area just south of Greenland better than other models so you should never write it off like you did yesterday, lesson learn't I hope.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?12

 

Surely even you can see that the north would do well out of that and it would be the south and SE where the unsettled weather would be for a change. Thats why I can see positives I live in the north and that would be fine for us

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

I will be releasing my summer forecast this Friday just waiting for more data to finalize everything :)

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LOL just noticed gavin was posting the control run next to OP calling it ensemble instead, what a way to confuse people, the ensemble mean is better than the control with HP more northeastwards than northwestwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

LOL just noticed gavin was posting the control run next to OP calling it ensemble instead, what a way to confuse people, the ensemble mean is better than the control with HP more northeastwards than northwestwards.

 

Eugene did you not read what I posted it is very simple to understand and its not intended to confuse people

 

I put this before the charts

 

Ensemble's on the left Op's on the right

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Some interesting synoptic models currently (see the other thread) -- the suggestion that High Pressure *might* start to make its influence felt round about the official first day of summer (ie from Saturday 1st June) tickles my fancy ... a lot!

But also I'm still cautious, because from bitter experience FI is FI and model output flipflops. We can only hope the suggested improving trend for after this coming week trend firms up on the charts, rather than getting knocked around ...

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

The met office keeps changing.. no one has a  clue what will happen. Take last Friday the weather forecast was  a mostly sunny day  for Saturday for a lot of of the country that's what the bbc had.. Then  next day  it was completely different. very cloudy.. a complete change  in the space of several hours. Same thing as recent years. Its all fine  predicting what the summer will be like. You can have all the models in the world. But no one knows..

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Met Office still saying unsettled in outlook forecasts.

 

There as changeable as the models when the models were showing an unsettled outlook for early June yesterday and the day before they were going for a settled start now yesterday evening and this morning the Ensembles have gone settled again they've gone unsettled

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The met office keeps changing.. no one has a  clue what will happen. Take last Friday the weather forecast was  a mostly sunny day  for Saturday for a lot of of the country that's what the bbc had.. Then  next day  it was completely different. very cloudy.. a complete change  in the space of several hours. Same thing as recent years. Its all fine  predicting what the summer will be like. You can have all the models in the world. But no one knows..

Welcome to the forum...Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Looks to me like the early summer shows more potential than the last few years.

 

No sign of a strong Greenland high becoming established. We've got a tendency for high pressure to form over Scandinavia and an Azores high that seems willing to ridge towards us with ease (something that hasn't occurred since 2006). I would think the chances of a prolonged and mild/warm easterly spell of weather at some point in the 6 weeks is quite high.

 

We saw the first signs of this over the last week as the Azores and Scandi high linked up, but it was just slightly too far north, with low pressure and cool uppers generally across the British Isles.

Posted Image

 

I think we may see many attempted links like this over the next few weeks, and as the continent warms up, these should get become warmer. The 06z GFS ensembles have this scenario occurring on many of the runs with the high pressure link occurring across the British Isles, and the 8-10 day 500hPa GPH chart continues to show a ridging Azores and strong heights across Scandi.

post-6901-0-25049200-1369414448_thumb.gi

 

The only negative so far, is the crashing hemispheric snow cover over the last few weeks. Very low late spring/summer snow cover has been a feature of the last few years. I'm not sure of any studies linking the snow cover with our summer weather (like the Eurasian October snow cover/Winter AO relationship), so it may not have much of an impact.

Posted Image

 

 

Overall though, I think there is reason to be optimistic if you're a fan of summery weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

There is plenty of time for a summerlike pattern to evolve of course but at the moment I think it is very questionable that the Azores High is looking very willing to ridge towards us with ease. Thus far it has done everything but do that, and against the background of such a long standing amplified pattern, that is reluctant to change, then the Azores High will continue to struggle to ridge towards us.

 

There is no reliable sign, other than some very FI GFS ensemble data that so far keeps proving to have the wrong signal, that this is going to happen yet. - and the last updates from the METO for up to the next 30 days continue to suggest that the Azores High will be held to the west of us with only occasional slight influence to south western parts and an unsettled and rather cool outlook predominating. That covers approaching two thirds of a six week period.

 

Things can change and may well do - but against a background of such an entrenched amplified pattern then, for the time being at least imo, I would suggest caution that this will happen, certainly with any speed - however much many of us (myself included) would welcome it.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Tend to agree with BFTV that early Summer prospects are quite good.

Indeed low Polar heights and Mid-latitude blocking is a good base to start with.

The last  ECM/GFS means show the continued warming across NW Europe and the UK by next weekend and a good ridging of heights across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m8.gif

 

It is a slow and sporadic process in the reducing of energy coming SE off the remaining vortex as we continue to get those lows spinning down across us but the next one from the BH Monday looks like the breaking of the chain as the upper trough becomes cutoff and eventually warms out.

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I have been looking at the CFS forecasts for June and July for the Glastonbury festival, off which this forecast will appear either tonight or over the weekend.

 

 

June

 

post-213-0-65957400-1369418695_thumb.png post-213-0-08644100-1369418707_thumb.png post-213-0-63069900-1369418702_thumb.png

 

July

 

post-213-0-67912400-1369418703_thumb.png post-213-0-41142400-1369418705_thumb.png post-213-0-21286900-1369418699_thumb.png

 

Both don't appear too bad especially June, with pressure higher than average to the west of UK. Notice in particular how low the pressure is forecast to be over Greenland in June.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

It sounds great and it will be most welcomed by me if it happens. Hopefully I will become just as very confident that this is the last of the trough disruption and that High pressure will take over from the west. I am certainly no expert, and don't write Met Office forecasts *she wishes*Posted Image  but they are not overly confident in the outlook either and they know a significant amount more than me for sure.

 

Those anomaly charts are interesting - and illustrate to me how touch and go it might be

 

Posted Image

Edited by Tamara Road
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