Summer 2013

[Summer Sun]

The latest met office update is fantastic for June

 

UK Outlook for Monday 3 Jun 2013 to Monday 17 Jun 2013:

 

There are signals that conditions should begin to settle down into June, becoming drier than normal for many areas, especially across the north and west with the influence of high pressure extending from the Azores. Temperatures should also return to normal for early June, so feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine, but currently no signal for heatwave conditions, and feeling cooler around coastal areas where sea breezes develop. Variable amounts of cloud are likely around the country at times, but also interspersed with sunnier conditions. Some showers are still possible through the period, especially in the south and east.

 

Updated: 1236 on Sun 19 May 2013

 

 

Maybe just maybe the start to summer will feel more seasonal unlike last June when the rain just kept on falling

 

The models for June are going to be very very interesting

[Milhouse]

No bad indications for June then. The absence of any talk about rain is very encouraging

[NeilN]

Unrelated but what were the summers like in 1947, 1963 and 1979 which had VERY cold winters? I remember my Grandad saying that the 47 + 63 ones were VERY warm especially in the Midlands. My Mum said 1979 had a good summer, and she was 12-13 at the time.

[Guest pjl20101]

Can't say I am that inspired by the bcc as it's giving a trough right over us with slightly warmer than average temps and slightly above average rainfall. Currently the UKMO GLOSEA4 and the cfs are going against that so the bcc is an outlier for this summer so far. What is the jamstec iod indicating?

[mushymanrob]

The second half of last summer was pretty good in the south midlands and southeast, you very very rarely get awful summers throughout.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the public has different perceptions of the weather to most on here, I keep hearing people in the media keep saying we had a long harsh winter, yet it was just below average, only March/eartly April were severe compared to average.

 

the criteria i use to judge a summer isnt down to temperature, sunshine and rain levels , its how many times i get wet, how long and wet the grass is (that i cut), how many bbq's, how many 'pool days' i have.... i didnt even get the pool out last summer, 0 bbqs after may, got wet and had long wet grass all summer including august, so from my perspective 2012 was my worst summer ever.

 

Unrelated but what were the summers like in 1947, 1963 and 1979 which had VERY cold winters? I remember my Grandad saying that the 47 + 63 ones were VERY warm especially in the Midlands. My Mum said 1979 had a good summer, and she was 12-13 at the time.

 

nah... '79 was nothing special, certainly not hot and sunny (aside from the odd day here and there), but it was dry in july/aug, similar to 1991. that was in derby, maybe the southeast had more sun/warmth.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's second Summer forecast

 

Best in July

More unsettled August

Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

 

*July*

 

Indications are that high pressure is going to be dominating the weather across the southern half of the UK and Ireland through July. Models are in good agreement that the month is going to be drier than normal and more sunnier than normal across England and Wales as well as southern Ireland. However, lower pressure is to the north and that probably allows fronts to pass eastwards through the country bringing some periods of cloud and rain at times. It could be breezy in northern Scotland too.

*August*

 

High pressure is expected to drift south of the UK through August. Pressure looks to be lower through more central areas. This is likely to be bringing periods of rain through Ireland and much of Scotland as well as southern England. Overall a more unsettled month with near to above normal rainfall totals.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20130519

Edited May 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's forecast to mid June

 

Valid from 19/05 to 18/06 2013

Drier north

Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it!

There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!". It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine. Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now.

We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems.

*........25/05/13*

Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled. As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better. However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England.

*26/05/13.......01/06/13*

Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too. Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales. Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast.

*02/06/13......08/06/13*

Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times. The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast.

*09/06/13......15/06/13*

The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells.

*16/06/13......22/06/13*

Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low. Probably feeling milder too.

Simon & Capn Bob

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20130519

 

 

[shedhead]

Personally I wouldn't give much credence to a forecast that uses the term 'mild' in June.

[Milhouse]

High pressure set to dominate across southern half of the UK during July . Its worth a thumbs up even though its still a long way off, it sounds pretty good though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Weather Online's forecast to mid June

 

Valid from 19/05 to 18/06 2013

Drier north

Issued: Sunday 19th May 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it!

There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!". It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine. Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now.

We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems.

*........25/05/13*

Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled. As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better. However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England.

*26/05/13.......01/06/13*

Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too. Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales. Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast.

*02/06/13......08/06/13*

Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times. The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast.

*09/06/13......15/06/13*

The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells.

*16/06/13......22/06/13*

Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low. Probably feeling milder too.

Simon & Capn Bob

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20130519

 

 

weatheronline not a fan of anyway, but yeah, the last bit is more of a february worded thing, June is either, hot, cool, cold, warm or muggy, not mild

[Milhouse]

Unrelated but what were the summers like in 1947, 1963 and 1979 which had VERY cold winters? I remember my Grandad saying that the 47 + 63 ones were VERY warm especially in the Midlands. My Mum said 1979 had a good summer, and she was 12-13 at the time.

1947 certainly the pick of those 3 for warmth and sunshine. The coolest summer month in 1947 in relation to the average was July but that was still 0.3c above the current 81-10 average of 16.7.

 

The first 2 months of Summer 1979 were reasonable with a lot of high pressure around bringing decent warmth but no real hot spells. They it all fell apart in August.

 

Summer 1963 was mostly dreadful apart from a warm start to June and a few nice spells during July.

[NeilN]

Cheers Milhouse

 

Perhaps 2013 will hopefully be like 1947? Even 1979 will do me. Funny how people remember summers for the good, but in reality it was not.

Edited May 20, 2013 by nn2013

[Guest pjl20101]

Well currently Millhouse 1963 isn't in the analogues, but 1985 is so there are probably some interesting times ahead.

[NeilN]

Well currently Millhouse 1963 isn't in the analogues, but 1985 is so there are probably some interesting times ahead.

 

What was that year like? I remember my Mum saying it was a poor summer.

[Skip Spence]

What was that year like? I remember my Mum saying it was a poor summer.

Yep, after two very good summers on the bounce (83 & 84), summer 85 was poor. But two out of three here in the UK ain't too shabby and post 2006 seems barely believable.

[Roger J Smith]

I remain optimistic for this summer, with potential of long settled periods, above normal temperatures at times, thanks to the eventual success in linking the Azores high to northern European high pressure. This seems to be the theme of May in general, getting the link to take hold, with a disruptive trough left over from months of serious negative height anomalies over western Europe.

 

Other than that, the atmosphere has little memory of the past, and just because mid-January to possibly mid-May as an end point have featured mostly below normal temperatures does not really commit the atmosphere to a continuation, although in very gross statistical terms that would be the more likely outcome.

 

My research suggests a reversal to an above normal trend, so I am going to say, best summer overall in a while, tempted to say 2006 but when you look in detail there, July was exceptional and August was "meh" to say the least, so maybe more of a 2005 analogy.

 

I don't have a really strong feeling in that direction mainly because my research is at a consolidation stage where I am still generating new output that needs to be assessed, so I could have a revised and more detailed outlook in a week or two, but so far I am inclined to go with the "fairly good to excellent summer" forecast for now. This would be good, as people are probably starting to wonder if modern summer is the new moder'n win'ter.

[Milhouse]

1984 often gets overlooked being after 1983 but there was a good spread of fine spells over all 3 months and every month was above average.

[NeilN]

Didn't the 1984 summer go onto September? My Mum was married to my Dad the end of August 84 (Should never have married him)and said it was boiling!

To add...Mum did say 1988 was crap too....as bad as 2012!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Statistically June 1984 was a north-south split month, but nearly all parts of the country had lots of fine spells during July and August.  There was no repeat of the record-breaking hot July of 1983 but temperatures during July and August 1984 were certainly in the warm category.

 

Fans of warm, dry and/or sunny weather were certainly spoilt during the period 1989-1996, although 1992 and 1993 were exceptions in most parts of the country.

 

The July sunshine stats are quite remarkable.  According to the Met Office's UK values, from 2000 onwards, only 2006 exceeded 170 hours, whereas during the period 1989-1999, only 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1998 failed to comfortably surpass that threshold.

[Guest pjl20101]

By the way folks Gavin partridge is doing his official summer forecast for this Sunday and I would suggest you watch it considering he has done very well indeed with forecasting this year. So head to gavsweathervids.com if you can.

[mushymanrob]

Well currently Millhouse 1963 isn't in the analogues, but 1985 is so there are probably some interesting times ahead.

 

 

dont understand... 85 was dire, only 07 and 12 were worse (for me)..

 

 

1984 often gets overlooked being after 1983 but there was a good spread of fine spells over all 3 months and every month was above average.

 

yep 84 was very nice but missed on a 'big heat' event

 

Didn't the 1984 summer go onto September? My Mum was married to my Dad the end of August 84 (Should never have married him)and said it was boiling!To add...Mum did say 1988 was crap too....as bad as 2012!

 

88 was poor but better then 85 12 and 07

[Weather-history]

Didn't the 1984 summer go onto September? My Mum was married to my Dad the end of August 84 (Should never have married him)and said it was boiling! To add...Mum did say 1988 was crap too....as bad as 2012!

The second half of August 1984 was hot, remember it well.July 1988 was atrocious.

[Weather-history]

Summer 1998 was nowt compare to 2012

[Don]

My research suggests a reversal to an above normal trend, so I am going to say, best summer overall in a while, tempted to say 2006 but when you look in detail there, July was exceptional and August was "meh" to say the least, so maybe more of a 2005 analogy.

Interesting RJS. With your research pointing towards a reversal to 'an above average trend' does it give any clue as to how long this may last, i.e. into Autumn/beyond? Cheers.

[Eugene]

Fantastic output from the GFS ensemble to follow the Op

 

Weren't you saying that last week about this week gavin

 

You are beginning to sound like a stuck record