Summer 2013

[BornFromTheVoid]

It had some cracking thunderstorms...

 

I wouldn't mind a cool summer, provided there was some dry spells and a few thunderstorms!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the current output trends, there are some mixed signals at the moment.

 

Both the GFS and ECM continue to suggest height rises across Scandinavia towards the second half of the month.

 

....... ..........ECMWF t216 ................... ................. GEFS t216

 

The last time we saw strong heights over Scandinavia during summer was in 2006.

 

...................Summer 2006 GPHA............. 

 

Both the ECM and GFS have also begun to hint at a possible Greenland high/west based -ve NAO. This particular feature has been the bane of "summery" weather fans in recent years, and has been a strong feature of every summer since 2006.

 

..........2007-2012 Mean Summer GPHA

 

For now current models suggest just a weak surface high across Greenland without a strong upper level support, with the Scandi high dominating in the medium term.

 

 

It will be important to keep an eye on Greenland as we move towards June, as this has been when the high pressure has set up shop there and refused to move in recent years. This can be seen in the fact that we haven't seen a +ve NAO summer month since July 2006, despite 2 +ve and one neutral NAO May during that time.

 

[Evening thunder]

 

Soggy summer II

 

Washout fears for Glasto, F1 and Wimbledon

 

BRITAIN is braced for another summer soaking to follow last year’s floods — with festival-goers facing a washout. The Met Office yesterday warned that “unsettled conditions†would last to the end of May and beyond. And there are already fears that heavy rain could put a dampener on the Isle of Wight and Glastonbury festivals, Wimbledon tennis and the Silverstone Grand Prix.

Jet stream winds flowing 2,000 miles south of their normal position — the same reason for last year’s downpours — are to blame for the miserable weather. Met Office forecaster Reid Morrison said: “Last summer’s unsettled weather was also due to the jet stream being further south than normal. It certainly looks like the jet stream will remain further south than normal for the next ten days.â€

 

MeteoGroup forecaster Nick Prebble added: “The jet stream moving south is expected to be the catalyst for low pressure with more widespread rain. “The jet stream can get stuck in a rut, as with the awful weather last summer.†Severe floods last summer put more than 1,000 homes under water and caused £500million of damage — five years after 55,000 properties were flooded due to a southerly jet stream in 2007. Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said: “The general pattern for the rest of May is showery conditions, although perhaps later in the month will see drier and brighter spells.â€

 

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4924008/Washout-fears-for-Glastonbury-F1-and-Wimbledon-as-Britain-braces-for-another-soggy-summer-to-follow-last-years.html#ixzz2T4EdKAbE

 

 

Didn't know summer was late May  (yes you probably could pull that statement off in some recent years for parts of the country admittedly)

 

But the Sun sees unsettled weather predicted for late May and says therefore this means the summer will be a washout?

be interesting to see what they would have forecast for summer in May 2006: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060522.gif

 

 

fully agree.... however... they might just be right, regardless of who printed it.

 

as things stand, is there really any tangible room for optimism?

indeed they could be, same goes for any summer forecast of course (within reason)

maybe not, but if that's the case is there any room for pessimism either, considering we don't really know what will happen? (general post not aimed at anyone in particular).

Edited May 12, 2013 by Stormmad26

[damianslaw]

The theme of the last 6 summers in the main has been a southerly tracking jet, negative NAO with stronger than normal heights to our NW, and this theme on all occasions embedded itself by the end of May - given the current outlook, I'm not surprised some are suggesting another summer washout.. but at this stage, there is every chance that the current unsettled cool spell could be shortlived - the models are toying with various scenarios for the end of the month, one of which is strong heights building over scandi - something which as someone has pointed out hasn't occured in late May since 2006 and look what happened in summer 2006..

 

Last May saw the azores high build over the country during the latter part of May but it never managed to get a foothold to our NE - a sure sign that once again northern heights just weren't playing ball. Indeed the azores high has been notable for its complete absence in recent summers, there is no sign that it is going to come into play anytime soon neither - so our best hopes for sumer 2013 may well rest on heights to our NE fighting off the atlantic - which they have managed to do so during Jan-April, recent winters have been different with stronger heights to the NW.

 

I remain positive, whilst I am not expecting a heat fest this summer with the jetstream unlikely to play ball to allow this to happen - we could see some very decent dry sunny weather and at times very warm weather if heights to the NE win out against the atlantic - sending low pressure over central and southern europe instead - but it will be a very fine balance and we could end up unlucky with such heights being too far east... let the battle between the trough and ridge commence!..

[Alex]

Interestingly MEI has gone positive again. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

This is coupled with a positive QBO!

[Guest pjl20101]

Cheers Alex for that my friend, it does look like a very hard summer to pin down to be honest. Out of fairness I don't really trust Jonathan Powell or the sun newspaper articles, they seem to me like they like thinking that they are important and more important than a mainstream forecaster. Think the cfs and GLOSEA4 are obviously models to take more notice of.

Shame that GP left as he would probably cotton onto the truth of what is going on. Am wondering whether there is an Asian mountain torque event taking place currently? Hence the unsettled type of conditions or whether its another SSW event that is interfering with the PV.

In my eyes that is what could be affecting the current predicted pattern for June according to the CFS with a +ve sign for the north.

[William of Walworth]

Has Glacier Point stopped posting here? I didn't know that ...

All I can see right now is an 'all to play for' scenario.

(Early) summer watchers should also keep a regular eye on JACKONE's Glastonbury 2013 thread on this forum.

The Sun just wants a 'Massive washout Wimbledon!'/'Record mudbath Glastonbury!' (shock horror! sensation!) thing for grabbing the attention of their readers ....

Edited May 12, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Summer Sun]

Has Glacier Point stopped posting here? I didn't know that ...All I can see right now is an 'all to play for' scenario.(Early) summer watchers should also keep a regular eye on JACKONE's Glastonbury 2013 thread on this forum.The Sun just wants a 'Massive washout Wimbledon!'/'Record mudbath Glastonbury!' (shock horror! sensation!) thing for grabbing the attention of their readers ....

 

Yes he has got a job else where now which prevents him from posting here like he did before he did say he may pop on now and then but other than that there won't be much from him now

 

There was a thread he created "this is the end" I think it was titled to say he was going but I can't find it any more

Edited May 12, 2013 by Gavin.

[Jack Wales]

Yes he has got a job else where now which prevents him from posting here like he did before he did say he may pop on now and then but other than that there won't be much from him now

 

There was a thread he created "this is the end" I think it was titled to say he was going but I can't find it any more

 

I'm sorry to hear GP has left. I'll miss his posts and he will be a loss to NW.  Good luck to him though in his new role.

 

Hi All

 

I don't post very often on here 'cos I'm not well versed in following weather charts, synoptics and the like but I really enjoy reading the posts of those who do.  Vantage Weather Services (VWS) formerly Positive Weather Solutions have just today released their summer forecast for 2013.  VWS of course is Mr Jonathan Powell who I know gets a fair amount of press coverage on here - usually bad.  Now, DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER, I'm only posting what VWS/Powell are saying for this year so here goes:

 

Vantage Weather Services

Summer 2013: Some short-lived spells of fine, dry, warm or very warm weather, but over all, not the best of Summers.

It would be interesting to see what some of you guys make of this.  As I understand it Powell NEVER says how he arrives at his forecasts and won't divulge any information as to how he compiles them.  Based on what he says however, he's not far away from what some of you have been saying for this year.  I'm sure some of you will want to comment!

 

Ha ha lol, just when I thought all was lost, I'm now cautiously optimistic for summer... dust off the the bbq!!

[Guest pjl20101]

The vantage weather forecasts I think are prone to error jack, I have more respect for Gavin partridge to be fair as he looks at forecasts in a very unbiased way.

Edited May 13, 2013 by pjl20101

[mushymanrob]

What was summer 1981 like?

 

 

It had some cracking thunderstorms...

 

 

benign.... nothing special at all, no real heatwave, no real deluge, it just slipped by pretty uneventfully

 

i had 0 thunderstorms in 1981, although thunder was heard on a few occassions.

[Jack Wales]

Sorry pjl, I was being sarcastic (which I realise is the lowest form of wit!). Pws / Vantage are imo produced directly for the media however this forecast is unusually benign. I bet the daily express are furious!

The fact that they never provide any detail behind their forecasts also gives the impression they've been plucked from the air!

[Weather-history]

What was summer 1981 like?

It was a cool dry summer overall. It was drier than summer 2003 for England and Wales. Infact it is in the top 20 driest summers on record since 1766 Edited May 13, 2013 by Weather-history

[bringmesunshine]

The problem with poorly written and researched stuff like the Sun article is that it has a dangerous habit of shaping public perception. In summer, retailers, events organisers and the tourist industry depend on accurate weather forecasting for their livelihood. If people think we are going to have a poor summer at this stage the it can affect what they spend their money on. Now, there may be floods at Glastonbury this year and Wimbledon may be played in a heatwave, but at the moment there is absolutely no serious evidence that either will happen. 

The most sensible posters on this forum know damn well that anything beyond 2 weeks ahead is speculation. (they don't call it FI for nothing). Yes, it's often well informed and intelligent speculation, but that's all it is. Stating categorically what the weather will do in two months time is irresponsible and does weather forecasting a disservice. Ignore.

[Summer Sun]

After the rubbish in the national newspapers over the past few days there is a more sensible outlook on the sky news website

 

However, forecasters warned against early predictions of a summer as damp as last year.

 

Dr England said: "Long range forecasts are a work in progress at the moment - they're better than tossing a coin but not by much.

 

"They're of benefit to utility companies over the longer term, for example, but they're not really meaningful to the person in the street.

 

"At the moment, it looks like they'll be a warmer, drier spell later in the month, especially in the south, but that can't be relied upon."

 

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1090198/weather-fortnights-rainfall-in-single-day

[049balt]

Will Summer ever arrive?

The weather continues to keep a spring-like feel with sunshine and showers the name of the game in most areas. However, an area of high pressure looks set to build over Scandinavia towards the end of May. This will allow easterly winds to develop and force temperatures over the UK to take a tumble. This looks likely to continue into early June with rain bands threatening the south and the east of the UK while the north and west fair better.

Monday 13 May—Sunday 19 May Is April set to make a return?

Unfortunately, the warm spring sunshine we saw at the start of last week looks like it has left the UK for the coming week at least with temperatures expected to be feeling below average for this time of year. This will bring the risk of ground frosts in northern rural locations. The coming week looks like it will remain unfriendly with rain for most and temperatures feeling chilly for this time of year. Showers look set to continue over much of the country with the best of the drier and brighter spells in the north and west. From time to time showery rain may turn more persistent bringing wetter spells, especially over south east England where things could turn a little thundery.

Monday 20 May—Sunday 26 May Showers continuing for most

It looks like the remainder of May will probably continue in the same vein. The April-like showery spell will be with us to start the week, but it will slowly lose its grip as high pressure builds over Scandinavia to provide a gradual improvement in some areas. Showers will continue to plague the UK for most of the period progressively become less frequent. There is also the possibility of more persistent bands of rain moving into the east and south of the UK later in the period as the high pressure continues to build over Scandinavia. Temperatures initially will be feeling near to average for this time of year giving highs in the mid to high teens so feeling pleasant in drier spells.

Monday 27 May—Sunday 9 June June is arriving; is summer arriving too?

Drier and brighter conditions look set for the start of June though there will be some cloud and rain around. Unfortunately temperatures look like they will be little disappointing hovering slightly below average for this time of year especially in the south where it could be described as distinctly cool. However, there is a chance things could warm up later in the period. Sheltered western parts of Scotland look like they could be seeing the best of the weather during this period with plenty of sunshine and largely dry.

Next week

[johnholmes]

Is there a reason why you have repeated in totality the month ahead forecast form UK Met which Stuart posted but in his case a reference to where it came from?

sorry if this sounds a bit rude to a newcomer?

see this link

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/22737-bbc-weather-monthly-outlook/page-27#entry2693433

Edited May 13, 2013 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

An early look at June from the Met office

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/22511992

[Methuselah]

Gee thanks, Gav!

[shae]

What do people think the weather is likely to be like at the end of June/early July? (specifically Glastonbury weekend - I know there's a thread dedicated to this but not as many people post there as here). From what I've read on here it seems a lot of it will be dependant on whether the jet stream stays south or moves north within the next few weeks, but what do you think the chances of it moving/staying actually are? Does it look as though it's likely to become more settled by the end of next month or not, and what was the weather like at this time in a year where we had a good summer (e.g. 2006)?Thanks:)! 

[Evening thunder]

Not sure I agree with that video from the BBC completely, temperatures are not necessarily going to be cold with an easterly wind like shown, after all Scandinavia is about to get a notable warm spell with temperatures forecast in the mid 20's by the end of the week. Not necessarily too cold if we then had an easterly setting up in Late May then. 

The 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks on the Met Office site also suggest temperatures recovering to nearer normal with the chance of warmer weather increasing into June so I personally wouldn't be calling for temperatures 'distinctly below average' all of the time.

 

The Met Office also said on their Facebook page today (presumably relating to a particular recent article by the Sun): 'Although there have been stories in the press saying we’re in for another washout summer, don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.'

so I'm not going to really be worrying about much for summer as a whole yet

 

Edit: also in a blog article: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/the-jet-stream-and-why-its-too-early-to-write-off-summer/

Edited May 13, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Geordiesnow]

Not sure I agree with that video from the BBC completely, temperatures are not necessarily going to be cold with an easterly wind like shown, after all Scandinavia is about to get a notable warm spell with temperatures forecast in the mid 20's by the end of the week. Not necessarily too cold if we then had an easterly setting up in Late May then. 

The 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks on the Met Office site also suggest temperatures recovering to nearer normal with the chance of warmer weather increasing into June so I personally wouldn't be calling for temperatures 'distinctly below average' all of the time.

 

The Met Office also said on their Facebook page today (presumably relating to a particular recent article by the Sun): 'Although there have been stories in the press saying we’re in for another washout summer, don't worry, it’s a far too early to be writing off any chance of a decent summer season.'

so I'm not going to really be worrying about much for summer as a whole yet

 

Edit: also in a blog article: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/the-jet-stream-and-why-its-too-early-to-write-off-summer/

 

An easterly at this of year with warm uppers is likely to bring an awful lot of cloud therefore cool temperature despite warmer uppers, in any brightness the temps could shoot up however. One thing the unusually warm uppers may produce and the models are hinting at this is heavier than usual frontal rainfall from the East, it most certainly is one too watch. 

 

I disagree with the BBC forecast also as I don't think its bulletproof that high pressure may stay at higher latitudes for long, its just too far out to predict the outlook for the start of summer as demonstrated by this mornings ECM which has the Azores high ridging in. 

 

The video is correct in saying that we could head into a spell of easterly winds with low pressure nearby, not springlike weather at all but interesting too see nonetheless. 

[phil nw.]

I am a little surprised at the Met O video going for a Scandi high and an easterly type towards the end of the month tbh.

Yes there have been signs of a temporary Scandi build next week but the main core of heights look to be trending further west around mid-Atlantic according to the means and ht anomalies incl the ECM.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if the MO data proves nearer the mark over time.

I will say NOAA foecasters have low confidence in the forwards NH pattern currently so there is an element of uncertainty that`s for sure.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[Guest pjl20101]

This will shock you all, but the PDO has gone neutral now according to the ssts chart I am going to post:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.13.2013.gif

Which could be a positive influence for the summer.

[mushymanrob]

ill take an easterly for late may, ive found that unlike april and early may easterlies in late may dont usually bring as much cloud, which burns off quicker then earlier in the year. the west would be very warm in loads of sunshine, east coast though wont like it..