Summer 2013

[SP1986]

I know average doesn't mean every day on historically average temperatures, I mean perhaps May will turn out closer to average than we think, obviously because of the warmer start. However last August was just wet, I think the temperatures were not too bad indeed like you say it was slightly below average but not by much. However the extent of the cloud, and rain made it appear a lot worse. 

 

I think I'd take a slightly below average summer temperature wise if there was a good mix of showers and sunshine, rather than persistent, cold and often wet weather. 

 

If we can average 18C as Max in July, and a minimum of about 12C, that's a winner in my book, although 5 years ago, I'd go for the true average of 20C around here as a max and minima of 13-14C, but the bar has moved, and you have to move with it. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

We haven't seen a positive NAO summer month since July 2006

For May, in the last 8 years the NAO has been positive only twice, 2007 and 2009. Both of these were followed by negative a June, July and August, and a positive September.

Saying that, between 1950 to 2012, the correlation between May NAO and the following summer NAO is just 0.08, which is practically nothing (the closer to 0, the weaker the correlation. -1 or +1 are perfect correlations).

So the May NAO, it seems, cannot really predict the summer NAO.

[Guest pjl20101]

If we look at it broadly the second half of last years summer was notably better than the second half, although the damage had already been done during the first half with constant rain/deluges. I am not expecting that this year, that said I still expect some very iffy moments this summer at times. The newspapers are getting on my wick at the moment with their own theories and spin which makes me very agitated indeed. Its a real shame matt Hugo and Ian ferguson aren't posting on here at the moment, have said it so many times but they know their stuff and would rather take notice of them than counterfeit articles in the papers. What do they know? Eh?

[mushymanrob]

mushy I do not think that 5 events out of 15 occasions = 'stark regularity' but perhaps we should just agree to differ on that interpretation.

 

but john, they were the years with strong northern blocking that appeared in early june... not every year had that so not every year has been a washout.

 

3 out of the last 6 summers have been washouts where northern blocking arrived in early june and stopped at least until the end of july. this seems to be a recent phenomina. is it therefore THAT ridiculous to suggest that IF we get another northern (greenland) block appearing in early june this year, that theres a good chance that both june and july (at least) are likely to be washouts? i know its not a law, not a 'given' but wouldnt recent trends/patterns suggest it?

[mushymanrob]

I'll tell my computer and my memory that the data is recorded for August was imagined then, shall I? I'll also tell my kids that the memory they have of spending 2 weeks pretty much every day in the pool was a figment of their imagination. We can all post pics of the odd flood/heavy rain event for a certain part of the country. South and East were pretty good; West and far N, not so good.

 

you must be the exception then, summer 12 was one of the wettest, (and that includes august which was wet) if not the wettest on record. i didnt get our pool out once, we had no bbqs after march! the stats show that the country was wet... so if anyones got weather that goes against what the nation got, its you!

Edited May 10, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Harve]

you must be the exception then, summer 12 was one of the wettest, (and that includes august which was wet) if not the wettest on record. i didnt get our pool out once, we had no bbqs after march! the stats show that the country was wet... so if anyones got weather that goes against what the nation got, its you!

After March? Then you're definitely forgetting the exceptional spell in the second half of May, and generally 'good' weather between mid July and mid August (I can't comment; that was exactly when I wasn't in the country).

[johnholmes]

you must be the exception then, summer 12 was one of the wettest, (and that includes august which was wet) if not the wettest on record. i didnt get our pool out once, we had no bbqs after march! the stats show that the country was wet... so if anyones got weather that goes against what the nation got, its you!

We all tend to remember what we want to remember, August here was reasonably wet but it also had some warm nights and very warm days. Here I am not using my memory but quoting from my weather diary.

From the 1st to the 23rd there was only 1 day that did not exceed 21C and I had 8 days in a row with 24C or more, 5 over 25C.

I suppose it depends whether you view life through a half full or half empty glass perspective?

I have just found the 'official' COL headline for August, it is this

August 2012: Slightly warmer than average but wet and dull in many areas

and yet another slant on it, this time in the R Met Soc summary by Philip Eden=Another unsettled month, but often dry and rather warm in the south east.

Using the CET it was the warmest August since 2004

another snippet=

The rainfall has been exceeded in 4 of the last 10 years for England and Wales

so it really is a cse of what sort of glass it seems?

Edited May 10, 2013 by johnholmes

[Skip Spence]

Average would be nice... but no chance of that with the summer climate in it's current form.

Average would be average. If, like me, one enjoys warmth and sunshine, an average summer isn't anything to get excited about albeit preferable to the last two horror shows. I'm hoping for a way above average summer but certainly not expecting one.

[bringmesunshine]

There is much 'here we go again' style pessimism on the boards this week ,not really surprising given the current models and our experiences of the last few summers. But I was looking at an old diary from 2003 the other day and the entry for May 20th read: 'weather awful again today...this has to be one of the worst Mays I can remember...hope it's not a sign for the rest of the summer'. It wasn't. Things can and do change and there are signs that we could be in for a better end of the month. Philip Eden, whose monthly forecasts are as accurate as anyones, has suggested an unsettled mid month followed by a decent last third. If we're still in this pattern in three weeks time then we'll think again, but for now keep positive and enjoy the rain. You know it's good for us.

[Cwmbran Eira]

There is much 'here we go again' style pessimism on the boards this week ,not really surprising given the current models and our experiences of the last few summers. But I was looking at an old diary from 2003 the other day and the entry for May 20th read: 'weather awful again today...this has to be one of the worst Mays I can remember...hope it's not a sign for the rest of the summer'. It wasn't. Things can and do change and there are signs that we could be in for a better end of the month. Philip Eden, whose monthly forecasts are as accurate as anyones, has suggested an unsettled mid month followed by a decent last third. If we're still in this pattern in three weeks time then we'll think again, but for now keep positive and enjoy the rain. You know it's good for us.

 

I also recall the 1st week of June was a complete washout. I remember waiting to paint the outside of the house but the weather was aweful.

Edited May 10, 2013 by Cwmbran Eira

[Milhouse]

I know average doesn't mean every day on historically average temperatures, I mean perhaps May will turn out closer to average than we think, obviously because of the warmer start. However last August was just wet, I think the temperatures were not too bad indeed like you say it was slightly below average but not by much. However the extent of the cloud, and rain made it appear a lot worse. 

 

I think I'd take a slightly below average summer temperature wise if there was a good mix of showers and sunshine, rather than persistent, cold and often wet weather. 

 

If we can average 18C as Max in July, and a minimum of about 12C, that's a winner in my book, although 5 years ago, I'd go for the true average of 20C around here as a max and minima of 13-14C, but the bar has moved, and you have to move with it. 

 

Last August was slightly above average at 16.6c. It wasnt a particularly wet month although sunshine amounts were down on average once again. Stations on the east coast south of the Humber recorded average maxima between 22c and 23.5c.

[Milhouse]

Average would be average. If, like me, one enjoys warmth and sunshine, an average summer isn't anything to get excited about albeit preferable to the last two horror shows. I'm hoping for a way above average summer but certainly not expecting one.

I suppose with an average summer you would likely get more notable spells of warmth which would be somethng to get excited about, rather than having to wait till the end of July like in 2008, or not at all in the case of 2007. Of course a consistently above average summer would be ideal.

[Bottesford]

Yes last August did have some decent weather as I had a bbq and got to sit out in shorts & t-shirt till 10pm. Admittedly that was probably the only day it was possible all summer to do that but still!

The late May spell was super except it began on a Monday, spanned 1 weekend (which I used to quietly get my garden ready for the following week) then ended on the next Friday turning to absolute cack for the (moved) bank hol weekend. My bbq took place in 11c with constant rain. Horrible.

If that spell had kicked off and ended 3-4 days later it would have been perfect.

And yes the weather now has no effect on summer as a whole! Same as that late May spell did nothing to improve summer 2012!

[shedhead]

Feels like a Summer 2010 is looming to me. Cool and unsettled in W Europe, hot and sunny in the E, with further Moscow heatwaves....not to dissimilar to the current pattern in fact.

[Jack Wales]

This summer is going to be very difficult to predict due to conflicting signals. Whilst there is the ongoing sign for northern blocking (and subsequent southerly tracking jet = cool & wet for UK), there are also tentative signs of something more settled.

I don’t buy into the recent debate that the summer season is a write off if early June starts badly. As I recall the first week of June 2003 was very unsettled and windy, the rest of that summer speaks for itself. June 2006 started cool and northerly with ground frost but that led on to an even better summer than 2003 (here in the west anyway!).

Although we are currently enduring an unsettled spell, predominantly due to the still active polar vortex over Greenland, the models are indicating that the stratosphere will finally disperse the vortex towards the end of the month. Historically this kind of pattern (spring monsoon) has tentative links to a weaker summer jet stream and a more settled summer pattern over NW Europe.

Another factor is that although we are currently in a northern blocked pattern, the overall signal for northern hemispheric base state is (as I see it) less aligned to La Nina than some recent summers. There have also been indications recently for slightly stronger heights over the Azores with a (albeit weak) tendency to ridge towards the UK.

SST’s imo aren’t looking great but are not disastrous either. The current ENSO pattern across the Pacific is neutral. Therefore other factors such as MJO activity and Angular Momentum could play a more significant role in the summer weather pattern. The one fly in the ointment is the potential for La Nina development. Cold anomalies can clearly be observed in the east pacific (ENSO regions 1, 2 and 3 which are starting to propagate westwards). Crucially the anomalies have not reached the ‘key’ ENSO area 3.4 yet and with a positive QBO phase developing, this should help build more ‘westerlyness’ into the upper atmosphere and inhibit any further development of La Nina.

I’m less inclined to rely on Atlantic SST’s so much as they often change quickly but the current set up (with a warm over cold anomaly in the mid Atlantic around 45 deg north) is indicative of a northerly displaced Azores high and NAO neutral conditions. Although this would seem to indicate the jet toppling over the hp cell and towards the UK, the long range models are also forecasting heights over Scandinavia.

Therefore, as there is a potential for a weaker jet stream, there is more scope for ridging between the Atlantic and Scandi highs, thus providing greater opportunities for more settled conditions over the UK this summer. I’m not saying it’s going to be a scorcher by any means but at least there should be some dry settled spells. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that June and July will be the best months.

I'd welcome an opinion from one of the 'experts' on here to see what their thinking is as I could be way of the mark!!

[Gibby]

My stab at Summer 2013 can be seen over on my website until I get time to paste it across but it could make for interesting reading as I don't think it will be as wet or cool as last year. I have also left my Spring Seasonal Forecast up for people to see how I faired. Not a total disaster I feel. 

[Buzzit]

Nice analysis BFTV.

 

The top analogue for the GFS 12z run just happens to be 2006. A few good summers among the other years too.

 

A big coincidence for thought regarding the 2006 analogue.

1st January 2006 ; Sydney Australia hit 45c

8th January 2013 : Sydney hit 43c

18th January 2013 : Sydney hit 47c

 

And just another statistical coincidence I saw.. based on data from Auckland NZ

February 1977 : Least month of precipitation with 75% time precipitation free

February 1978 : Least month of precipitation with 82% time precipitation free

February 1980 : Least month of precipitation with 59% time precipitation free

February 1984 : Least month of precipitation with 66% time precipitation free

February 1989 : Least month of precipitation with 64% time precipitation free

February 1990 : Least month of precipitation with 90% time precipitation free

February 1999 : Least month of precipitation with 93% time precipitation free

February 2000 : Least month of precipitation with 83% time precipitation free

February 2006 : Least month of precipitation with 71% time precipitation free

February 2007 : Least month of precipitation with 75% time precipitation free

February 2011 : Least month of precipitation with 71% time precipitation free

February 2013 : Least month of precipitation with 79% time precipitation free

This is based on data since 1st January 1975

(with February 2013 being based on period 1st January 2012 to end April 2013)

Edited May 10, 2013 by Buzzit

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall that I enjoyed the first half of August here in North Yorkshire last year, we had a mix of sunny spells and slow-moving thundery downpours in the first week (one day had thunder on and off for five hours) and then the second week was mostly dry, sunny and warm (though as a few others have mentioned, it was a case of modest warmth rather than heat). However a trough set up to our west during the third week of the month and then gradually drifted eastwards, bringing a progressive return to dull, cool, wet and breezy conditions.

Statistically August 2012 was slightly warmer than average here, but also slightly on the cloudy and wet side. However there was considerable regional variation and over much of south-western Britain it was comparably dull and wet, with similarly cool maximum temperatures, to July (though not June).

There was also a fine spell, mainly over the southern half of Britain, during the last third of July although this followed an exceptional shortage of sunshine in the first half of the month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

A big coincidence for thought regarding the 2006 analogue.

1st January 2006 ; Sydney Australia hit 45c

8th January 2013 : Sydney hit 43c

18th January 2013 : Sydney hit 47c

 

 

 

 

Not sure these one off days prove that much, there was also other days of +40 in the same time interval.

 

eg.

24th January 2009 Sydney 40.9

5 February 2011 Sydney hit 41.5

 

+40 weather isn't that uncommon in Sydney altough 2 days in the one month like they had this year is.

 

ps. 1st of Jan 2006 is particularly memorable for me due to, both my son being just born, and the cracking southerly buster which hit at around 8:15pm and dropped the temp about 15 degrees from 40 in around an hour, most of it in the first 15 minutes or so.

Edited May 10, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Iceni]

Because a few of my friends are farmers, my ideal summer is June, warm and wet for the growing season up to mid July and then hot and sunny every day until the harvest's in. Then it can do what it likes.

[Richard2901]

I really enjoyed the first half of last August - well the first 12 days at least - because I spent it in Spain. Here it was just another diabolical spell of unseasonably poor weather.

Only the 18th - 24th brought any semblence of normal summer temperatures and sunshine levels, and that was rapidly followed by a dose of torrential rain and flooding on Saturday 25th August. A fantastic way to end the worst summer on record. That deluge turned August 2012 into the wettest summer month I've recorded and like the Augusts of 2006, 2008 and 2011 it was duller than any August between 1980 and 2005.

Here's the proof that for much of the country August 2012 was yet another rotten summer month:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/8/2012_8_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/8/2012_8_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

[Tamara]

This summer is going to be very difficult to predict due to conflicting signals. Whilst there is the ongoing sign for northern blocking (and subsequent southerly tracking jet = cool & wet for UK), there are also tentative signs of something more settled.

I don’t buy into the recent debate that the summer season is a write off if early June starts badly. As I recall the first week of June 2003 was very unsettled and windy, the rest of that summer speaks for itself. June 2006 started cool and northerly with ground frost but that led on to an even better summer than 2003 (here in the west anyway!).

Although we are currently enduring an unsettled spell, predominantly due to the still active polar vortex over Greenland, the models are indicating that the stratosphere will finally disperse the vortex towards the end of the month. Historically this kind of pattern (spring monsoon) has tentative links to a weaker summer jet stream and a more settled summer pattern over NW Europe.

Another factor is that although we are currently in a northern blocked pattern, the overall signal for northern hemispheric base state is (as I see it) less aligned to La Nina than some recent summers. There have also been indications recently for slightly stronger heights over the Azores with a (albeit weak) tendency to ridge towards the UK.

SST’s imo aren’t looking great but are not disastrous either. The current ENSO pattern across the Pacific is neutral. Therefore other factors such as MJO activity and Angular Momentum could play a more significant role in the summer weather pattern. The one fly in the ointment is the potential for La Nina development. Cold anomalies can clearly be observed in the east pacific (ENSO regions 1, 2 and 3 which are starting to propagate westwards). Crucially the anomalies have not reached the ‘key’ ENSO area 3.4 yet and with a positive QBO phase developing, this should help build more ‘westerlyness’ into the upper atmosphere and inhibit any further development of La Nina.

I’m less inclined to rely on Atlantic SST’s so much as they often change quickly but the current set up (with a warm over cold anomaly in the mid Atlantic around 45 deg north) is indicative of a northerly displaced Azores high and NAO neutral conditions. Although this would seem to indicate the jet toppling over the hp cell and towards the UK, the long range models are also forecasting heights over Scandinavia.

Therefore, as there is a potential for a weaker jet stream, there is more scope for ridging between the Atlantic and Scandi highs, thus providing greater opportunities for more settled conditions over the UK this summer. I’m not saying it’s going to be a scorcher by any means but at least there should be some dry settled spells. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that June and July will be the best months.

I'd welcome an opinion from one of the 'experts' on here to see what their thinking is as I could be way of the mark!!

That was very well laid out and explained  The only thing I would suggest wrt the here and now is that the current/upcoming unsettled spell is very much linked up to the seasonal break up of the polar vortex which is happening in the shorter term rather than towards the end of the month. Hence the signal in the models atm for pressure to rise to the north and the vortex at the same time to drain out from Canada and Greenland across the atlantic towards the UK and, it seems, eventually into Europe is indicative of that happening almost immediately.

 

I'm not one of the experts but it does seem there are a lot of uncertainties what happens thereafter as we get to the start of summer and whether the HLB signal fades on a more sustained basis; and you outline many/most of the factors that probably will play a part very well indeed  I think there is a good chance of some bettter weather towards/ maybe more likely by the end of the month as the final warming process of the stratosphere starts to fade out but whether we get any significant rise in temperatures once cannot say atm.

 

I would think many of the experts on here as well as professionals may struggle with predictions this summer

Edited May 10, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Methuselah]

That was very well laid out and explained  The only thing I would suggest wrt the here and now is that the current/upcoming unsettled spell is very much linked up to the seasonal break up of the polar vortex which is happening in the shorter term rather than towards the end of the month. Hence the signal in the models atm for pressure to rise to the north and the vortex at the same time to drain out from Canada and Greenland across the atlantic towards the UK and, it seems, eventually into Europe is indicative of that happening almost immediately.

 

I'm not one of the experts but it does seem there are a lot of uncertainties what happens thereafter as we get to the start of summer and whether the HLB signal fades on a more sustained basis; and you outline many/most of the factors that probably will play a part very well indeed  I think there is a good chance of some bettter weather towards/ maybe more likely by the end of the month as the final warming process of the stratosphere starts to fade out but whether we get any significant rise in temperatures once cannot say atm.

 

I would think many of the experts on here as well as professionals may struggle with predictions this summer

Aye Tamara - I'm sorry I haven't a clue would be mine...

[Guest pjl20101]

Have to agree with jack Wales and Tamara road, thank both you two for your detailed posts which make total sense. Gavin partridge also hinted on TWO that the oak tree has grown before the ash, so another good sign for this summer. Think nature is a more reliable indicator for predicting seasons sometimes rather than computer models which seem to flip flop each time.

[J10]

On the Glasto thread I have been looking at the weekly CFS for both June and July, and both look positive for good conditions for the past 2 weekly runs.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/

 

Very interesting to see that Pressure over Greenland is forecast to be well below average on this weeks run. I am also looking at the CFS daily forecast on here, mixed so far for the Glasto week,to say the least, and also the CFS forecast on Meteoceil and a common theme if big +ve for Pressure to the west of the UK.

 

I will continue to do this for Glasto, and it will be interesting to see how accurate the forecast are both for Glasto,and in terms of Synoptic patterns for the UK as a whole.