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Summer 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I would still err on the side of believing it will be a cool, wet summer. I'm looking at all the northern blocking and thinking, that's really not moving anywhere. Northern blocking is very familiar in recent times, and I would suggest it may continue that way on and off through the summer period. I could be positive for positives sake but I'm not into all that, I'd rather just say how it seems. 

 

I have however heard the phrase 'May looks like it'll return to normal', to me that shows how use to the cold people have actually got.. today aside, I think March and April definitely had an impact on people's labelling of what is average and what is not.

 

These forthcoming week we shall see temperatures around 10-13C maximums in general.. which is around 3-4C below average for the time of year? Certainly no return to average, indeed May might finish just below average, despite the warm start? 

 

I'm not complaining though, these last few days have been cracking, in fact the start to May has been very good.. however this is Britain and we do have to make the most of those few days in summertime!

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Guest pjl20101

Found this from CPC NOAA CFS vs2 and it looks like June may be a bit disappointing with a lot of northern blocking, July on the other hand looks like there is more +ve signs especially in the se, wheras august is very much low confidence currently:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

All of this could be subject to change however.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Despite the short longevity i rate this as the best start to May since 2008 for me (though not in the same league).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

CFS still looks good for a settled June this morning

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Worth keeping an eye on

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

CFS still looks good for a settled June this morning

 

Worth keeping an eye on

 

Thats not a great anomoly chart really though Gavin and suggests frequent blocking to the north-west of the UK. Chances are it would be cool, cloudy but not particularly wet at least.

 

That positive 500hPa anomoly need to be over or to the east of the UK to produce warm, sunny weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Thats not a great anomoly chart really though Gavin and suggests frequent blocking to the north-west of the UK. Chances are it would be cool, cloudy but not particularly wet at least.That positive 500hPa anomoly need to be over or to the east of the UK to produce warm, sunny weather.

I'm not so sure it would be cool and cloudy maybe for those in the East/SE but those further West would more than likely see plenty of warm sunshine. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

Despite the short longevity i rate this as the best start to May since 2008 for me (though not in the same league).

If we get the retrogression as progged by some of the models today then we could be looking at shades of late may 08 - v unsettled south/more settled up north. Hope this doesn't come off!
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I was in Norwich during May 2008 and remember a couple of days of sunshine and showers with some thunder to begin with, followed by an exceptionally warm dry sunny spell with temperatures as high as 27C on a couple of the days, and between 10 and 14 hours of sunshine at Norwich Airport for at least seven consecutive days. However, the second half was then remarkably dull, and as a result the month's sunshine total came out only 10-20% above average despite having been close to record-breaking in the first half.

It was an exceptionally warm month but there have been many sunnier and/or drier Mays in the recent past.

The anomaly pattern above does look reminiscent of May 2008 but the surface weather would be strongly dependent on the track of low pressure systems to the south, the amount of humidity, and whether or not the winds were frequent east of due north. Generally speaking, the more humid, and the longer the track over the North Sea, the greater the likelihood of it being dull in the east. Western Scotland, Ireland and north-west England usually end up warm, sunny and dry regardless in that setup though.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Nice analysis BFTV.

 

The top analogue for the GFS 12z run just happens to be 2006. A few good summers among the other years too.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

As a subjective opinion, Ive never seen such dross forecast in May I have to admit. It's fairly irritating that we are in patterns that allow cold to last for while, whilst warm spells are few, far between and shortlived. I preferred the late spring/summers of 10 years ago, when in general the warm spells didn't always last long, but at least you knew the Azores High would come along soon after and give you a fairly decent few warm sunny days.. etc etc. The new summer pattern seems one of endless cool and wet, perhaps something we will have to get used to in the next few years (maybe decades?), its pretty unrelenting this northern blocking lark! 

With low pressure in charge pumping very cool uppers down, in the west it looks like a nightmare scenario, in the east not much better, but some face can be salvaged from the odd day which may be respectable. 

On the other hands, cold rampers must be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a cold, blocked winter?

 

Now some may say Im being overly pessimistic and over the top, but, how long could you have below average temperatures for (presuming you're a warm summer fan), before it starts getting irritating? GFS says 2 weeks at least at the moment Posted Image

Edited by SP1986
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Guest pjl20101

I was doing some PDO and mei years in my draft and the years I came out with for analogues were:

2008

2006

1999

1988

1985

1980

1978

1975

1971

1962

it could all change however, but those seem closest at the moment and with the mei going into la Nina apparently or it being close to neutral that is what I have come out with.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Cool weather in summer becomes irritating extremely quickly. The warm season in our generally cool climate is already short enough without what little we can get being spoilt by endless even cooler & wetter conditions.

It makes it seem ever more like we have a very dull climate as when barely 10c higher than the winter average maxes!

We're in the wrong location for reliable sunny & warm weather of course but then if the overall averages go down it'll play havoc with our ecosystem & economy. That said, it was only a few years ago we were saying the same thing about how mild/warm our climate has become - then it flipped. It will flip again - just when who knows (perhaps this summer!).

Remember cool & wet is pretty normal in May and does not affect the rest of summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Remember cool & wet is pretty normal in May and does not affect the rest of summer.

I'vs strongly hoping that this is the case. Some of the current models in the Model Output thread for the next week/ten days or so, are alarming to say the least...
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I was doing some PDO and mei years in my draft and the years I came out with for analogues were:2008200619991988198519801978197519711962it could all change however, but those seem closest at the moment and with the mei going into la Nina apparently or it being close to neutral that is what I have come out with.

There's a veritable mix of summers in there, pjl...Indeed, you could say that this summer could be anything, and still be in line with an analogue?

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester
Posted · Hidden by reef, May 9, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by reef, May 9, 2013 - No reason given

We just nudged 9c here, amid strong winds and driving rain! We are in Spring right...? lol

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

 

true. but if anyone was rash enough to write off summer in the first week of june last year...theyd have been correct. so it is possible, and trends over that last several years have been one of northern blocking establishing in early june... then sticking, and ruining the heart of summer with only a few decent days in august at best.

 

IF northern blocking establishes in the next few weeks, it would be a fairly safe bet to 'write off' june and july in terms of a decent widespread settled spell. 2012 has proven this (as did 07, 08 )

 

No, they wouldn't have been. June and July were pretty dire, but August wasn't too shabby at all. A run of over 14 days at the start of the month with dry warm/fairly hot weather with kids in paddling pool, and the first 24 days with temps at 20°C or above here in the cool NE speaks volumes (i.e., hardly "only a few decent days").

Edited by NickR
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Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey

IF northern blocking establishes in the next few weeks, it would be a fairly safe bet to 'write off' june and july in terms of a decent widespread settled spell. 2012 has proven this (as did 07, 08 )

 

I can't recall us having a really good summer since 2006, none of the summers since that have had anything that memorable. But as NickR we did have a relatively good August, and I recall the first couple of weeks of the Olympic torch relay were gorgeous too.

 

I'm certainly not going to write off this summer while we're still in early May but we could really do with some more positive looking charts being thrown into the mix soon, it just seems the norm now that we should expect poor summers, certainly in comparison to the memorable ones of 2003 and 2006!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Have we ever had a summer with frequent pressure builds from the east?

 

Looking at the ensembles and anomoly data in day 15-20 i can see an evolution to a -PNA pattern with the trough in the Atlantic backing west but unlike most summers where we see Azores ridging, this could herald a pattern where we look to Scandinavia for our ridges.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Let's no fret too much. Just before the Bank Holiday, the models were showing a prolonged settled spell to begin this week but now it's flipped completely. There's no saying it can't happen the other way (even though this seems to be less often the case these days). Even the trough to be sat a bit further west or south would bring much more interesting conditions. Unsettled weather, particularly the first half, is fairly common. There is often a spike in rainfall in my area anyway during late April and the first half of May before things calms down in the second half of the month and June.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

IF is the in word for the model thread, we see it regularly in the winter part of the year and now mushy uses it and then goes on to suggest that IF his theory occurs then June and July could be written.

nushy how about some facts to prove your theory? Secondly IF showing patterns in 19xyz was a good predictor then all the major centres would use this. Fact = they do not and for a very good reason that it is not an accurate or even half accurate way of predicting the next weeks let alone months.

As Botty has posted how about some realism and linking to meteorological prediction rather than some kind of mumbo jumbo?

IF an upper ridge does develop over the next couple of weeks it does not signal the end or likely end of two summer months.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

No, they wouldn't have been. June and July were pretty dire, but August wasn't too shabby at all. A run of over 14 days at the start of the month with dry warm/fairly hot weather with kids in paddling pool, and the first 24 days with temps at 20°C or above here in the cool NE speaks volumes (i.e., hardly "only a few decent days").

August wasn't great at all, the bank holiday was a complete washout and this was Chester racecourse on the 5th.

 

Posted Image

Edited by CongletonHeat
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

It wasnt until the 15th-17th last year that the models started to firm up on the warm spell that was the highlight of last May. So plenty of time for change.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

 

true. but if anyone was rash enough to write off summer in the first week of june last year...theyd have been correct. so it is possible, and trends over that last several years have been one of northern blocking establishing in early june... then sticking, and ruining the heart of summer with only a few decent days in august at best.

 

IF northern blocking establishes in the next few weeks, it would be a fairly safe bet to 'write off' june and july in terms of a decent widespread settled spell. 2012 has proven this (as did 07, 08 )

 

I feel I have to add my thoughts here, yes you could write a whole summer off, but you'd be taking one hell of a chance in doing so! Also as I recently posted in the Summer 2013 thread, May 2006 had a spell of northern blocking around Greenland with a resultant very unsettled spell following (similar windy low to this one on pressure charts), and after this things changed rapidly in June, followed by the hottest July on record..

If things can change following some high latitude blocking in May, why not in June?

 

Also for what it's worth last summer had some decent days IMBY, last year twice seeing the highest temps since 2006 with a spell of decent days at the end of July and some more in August. Yes overall the summer was bad, and the wettest on record IMBY but as long as there's some decent temps and sunny days the rain doesn't bother me so much, just adds interest. It was quite bad overall (especially early Summer), but not a write off for me.

 

You always will get a few years you can look back on and say 'we could have written that off and been correct' but I'm sure there's many examples that prove you can't really use that to predict in the future 'if X happens on June 1st or whenever we can write off most of the summer and won't be wrong'. Weather isn't that simple for a start.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted · Hidden by reef, May 9, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by reef, May 9, 2013 - No reason given

8.8c at 1415 this afternoon with heavy rain and wind. Spring? Great imitation of a late October day that's for sure!

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