Summer 2013

[Guest pjl20101]

Joe b said on twitter that he's expecting a cooler than average summer with Paul Hudson more or less agreeing with him. Chionomaniac seemed to suggest that we would get a better idea on the summer when the downwelling event of the stratosphere has happened and the summer stratosphere starts taking place. From what I saw on cfs Meteociel today was a fine may to July with august probably being the stinker. I can imagine it to be honest and that echoes with what summer blizzard has been talking about all this time.

[Bottesford]

Suits me - May-July is when you want the best of the weather anyway when daylight is at its maximum. By mid August the rot starts to kick in anyway (not literally but the loss of precious light begins).

No science behind my reasoning but it does 'feel' like it'll be ok this year. Had a similar feeling in 2006 too. If nothing else weather patterns are feeling more normal for the time of year with that god awful northern blocking much reduced - at last!

[Summer Sun]

The weather channels May and early summer forecast is not good

 

 

After the cold start to April temperatures have gradually lifted with a few warm days to kick start spring, but temperatures are still a degree or so below the long term normal for April in the UK. Some warmer days in the south at first but it looks like April will end rather cool and wintry again, so the month as a whole will remain colder than normal, but nowhere near as extreme as March. The CET is likely end up somewhere between -0.5 to -1.0C.

 

So how about May and the summer?

It looks like the cold end to April will extend to the start of May with a cold trough over western Europe and a southward kink in the jet stream over the NE Atlantic. Low pressure from Iberia to the UK and eastern Atlantic with some quite wet weather for Iberia. In the UK night frosts will be a risk. The warmest weather over eastern Europe, and also drier weather too.

 

 

From early to mid May it looks like a ridge will begin to build over central to northern Europe with the jet stream weaker and displaced well to the north. High pressure may well dominate the weather with the centre from southern Scandinavia to the North Sea. This will bring us drier and settled weather, and probably quite sunny weather too. Temperatures lifting but still slightly below normal, especially around coasts with breezes off the chilly North Sea which remains 2 to 3C below normal. With clearer skies we may also see cold nights and ground frosts, but pleasant by day in the sunshine. In Europe temperatures lifting to nearer or above normal across Germany and eastwards, but low pressure to the west of Iberia may keep Spain and Portugal rather unsettled and cooler than normal.

 

 

For the end of May we expect the jet stream to return southwards again to bring unsettled weather back to NW Europe from the Atlantic, while the ridge and surface high pressure moves east with eastern Europe warmer and drier. This may then set the theme for the summer with cooler and wetter weather in June and July for NW Europe and hotter and drier weather over SE Europe; very similar to the past 6 summers in fact. All this in response to the lack of sea ice over the Arctic from May which displaces and enhances the jet stream over the mid Atlantic to NW Europe.

 

 

 

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/041913_may_outlook-20130419

 

Not sure what there track record is so make what you will of it

[NeilN]

I think they have probably based this on last year.

[Lake District Blizzard]

Id love to see cooler than normal temperatures from the mid may setup, what a load of rubbish

[Guest pjl20101]

Think my advice to people is always keep tabs of cfs on Meteociel and the glo sea 4 model on the met office as they have been the best performing models throughout the past 12 months. I am not convinced with the weather channel at all to be fair. By the way what are terry scholey's musings for this summer gonna be like?

[Methuselah]

Can't say as I'm particularly bothered by the Weather Channel's summer forecast. That said, I'll no be that bothered what anyone-else has to say, either...They'll all be wrong.

Edited April 26, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[hillbilly]

Joe b said on twitter that he's expecting a cooler than average summer with Paul Hudson more or less agreeing with him. Chionomaniac seemed to suggest that we would get a better idea on the summer when the downwelling event of the stratosphere has happened and the summer stratosphere starts taking place. From what I saw on cfs Meteociel today was a fine may to July with august probably being the stinker. I can imagine it to be honest and that echoes with what summer blizzard has been talking about all this time.

if you agree with paul hudson you are in trouble,he might be able to give you a good forcast but he cant get these hills right to save his life!

[Supercell 89]

I don't know about anyone else but the Weather Channels diagram for mid may seems incorrect. Surely if the UK was under south-easterly winds from central Europe at this time of year it will at least be average if not warm, especially if the wind is originating from a warmer than average area.

 

One positive note for this summer, the ENSO conditions seem to be recovering from being slightly negative to being more neutral, so hopefully the PDO will follow suit and allow the jet to be less amplified, also there has been a half decent surge in solar activity in the last month building on an increase during March which if it continues to rise again during May i think it may prove to tip the weather patterns more in our favour over the summer but its early days yet it and could easily change. 

[SP1986]

Recently I find myself lowering the bar of expectation of summers quite drastically. It didn't hit me until yesterday that I was starting to think the low to mid teens would be an acceptable temperature for summer. I realise though that really an acceptable mid-summer temperature is between 18-21C here, but as a normal temperatures, this seems even too high given summers of recent in my local area. I've resorted to accepting 15C as a good summer day temperature, so if it's above that as average, I'll be happy. Actually the night temperatures have somewhat decreased too, in the past few years. The average minimum in July is 13-14C, but the last few years it's been around 10C.. so temperature have definitely taken a dive. In response to this I expect far far less of our summers now, in a subjective sense.

 

If I had to choose though with regard to the forecasts available, and this current time I'd side with Paul Hudson and Joe Bastardi, I don't actually think anything has changed since last year, and in essence still believe we are in the same overall situation, so I think a cooler, wetter summer is likely for us, but it will start a little drier for some in May.. I base this on my expectations, which is that Northern blocking may persist with frequency (ie not always, but most of the time), bringing cool, arctic air over the UK.. of course that does not mean we wouldn't have warm spell from time to time, but in the most, much like last year I would say, in my opinion. 

 

If this comes to fruition, I suspect we could have an exceptionally cool year this year, and I expect the broad pattern to continue on into winter, potentially giving us a cold winter, but that's silly to talk about winter in April.

 

I know this opinion/reasoning won't go down well with people, but it's only an opinion, and actually I don't take much pleasure in writing it either, as what I want is far different to what I expect.. I wish we could have temperatures in the high 20's and storms every day of the summer this year..

Edited April 26, 2013 by SP1986

[Methuselah]

Recently I find myself lowering the bar of expectation of summers quite drastically. It didn't hit me until yesterday that I was starting to think the low to mid teens would be an acceptable temperature for summer. I realise though that really an acceptable mid-summer temperature is between 18-21C here, but as a normal temperatures, this seems even too high given summers of recent in my local area. I've resorted to accepting 15C as a good summer day temperature, so if it's above that as average, I'll be happy. Actually the night temperatures have somewhat decreased too, in the past few years. The average minimum in July is 13-14C, but the last few years it's been around 10C.. so temperature have definitely taken a dive. In response to this I expect far far less of our summers now, in a subjective sense.

Clearly, you weren't around in the 'glorious sixties' then, Stephen?

[SP1986]

Clearly, you weren't around in the 'glorious sixties' then, Stephen?

 

I wasn't.. but I guess we'll be 'digging them back up'? 

[Chris K]

Oops post was incorrect wont let me delete.

Edited April 26, 2013 by Chris K

[Guest pjl20101]

Where is Chionomaniac and snow king for the updated reanalysis data for this summer? As they are needed badly on this thread.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Where is Chionomaniac and snow king for the updated reanalysis data for this summer? As they are needed badly on this thread.

I believe Snowking is going for a wet, cool summer? I personally think this will be wide of the mark. I don't know what Chiono is thinking though.I'm thinking along the lines of a warm, perhaps hot June and an unsettled late July and August spell? Overall drier and warmer than average remains the favoured outcome for me.Sorry it's brief, still having to use my phone!Will perhaps do a run down of various indicators once my internet is back up and running next Friday. Edited April 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[Guest pjl20101]

Haha CreweCold I use my phone most of the time for the internet, those are the signals I've seen from the CFS mate and it like the GLOSEA4 has performed brilliantly. Think Chiono said something along the lines of we will have to wait until mid may for a clearer picture on the summer season when we transition into summer stratosphere mode.

[Mark Neal.]

Well as for summer 2013, i wouldn't mind more of the same of the past week, was warm last week with sunshine, bloody lovely! Last few days been some decent sunshine but just not warm enough, so add a few degrees on and light winds and i'll be satisfied! 

[summer blizzard]

Some good model runs lately, shades of May 2008.

[Milhouse]

And i hope the similarities with 2008 end there. Summer itself was on a par with 2007.

[Mark Neal.]

It seemed contraty to my thoughts posted last night, see last post in this thread, the NWP have responded! Summer 2013 going to get underway this weekend!

[Bottesford]

Very encouraging charts for May especially seeing pressure lowering over Greenland.

Things do feel a lot more 'normal' since that cold ended - just hope that goes on into summer and especially (for me) late June!

[Summer Sun]

The latest CFS is very encouraging for a decent late spring and early summer which is perfect as we are now coming into the time when the days are there longest and the sun is getting to its strongest

 

May

 

 

June

 

 

July

 

 

For those seeking a settled period red is what you want to see over the UK for those after unsettled weather its blue you want to see

 

One thing for certain this is a complete reversal from 12 months ago

 

Edited April 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[Milhouse]

Very good charts but always at that range they are not to be taken seriously. But encouraging nevertheless to see high pressure likely to be situated in a position to give warmth and settled conditions to the UK. That would seem to suggest that easterlies would be quite common but i would take that if it mean the UK as a whole had a long overdue settled and warm summer.

[summer blizzard]

Looks great although i'm not a fan of seasonal and monthly modelling, they have a habit of being wrong.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest CFS is very encouraging for a decent late spring and early summer which is perfect as we are now coming into the time when the days are there longest and the sun is getting to its strongest

 

For those seeking a settled period red is what you want to see over the UK for those after unsettled weather its blue you want to see

 

One thing for certain this is a complete reversal from 12 months ago

 

 

 

Those CFS charts look nice Gavin, how consistent have they been in recent weeks?

 

Hopefully the current shorter term forecasts for decent weather will last more than just for next week. I'd rather not have be looking out the window at the sunshine while studying this week and then during exams the following two weeks, only to have rain when I'm finally done!