Summer 2013

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm more bothered about May for now..  2008 repeat would not go a miss.

What are you thinking with regards to June, July and August at the moment?

[summer blizzard]

What are you thinking with regards to June, July and August at the moment?

 

The persistent negative nature of the PDO does concern me and will prevent any serious movement towards El Nino however for the most part i'm pretty positive.

 

Both the QBO and GLAAM are positive and should encourage the development of an El Nino like atmospheric response even if moderated by the PDO and so i would say that the odds of the warmest summer since 2006 are good with 2005 and 2010 not being bad analogues for what i expect (August probably not as bad as 2010). I think the bulk of the summer warmth will come in the mid-May-mid-July period with the second half being less impressive but probably close to average.

 

The caveat here is that there are signs of a decent hurricane season which could interfere with the pattern especially in the August-October period.

[Costa Del Fal]

The persistent negative nature of the PDO does concern me and will prevent any serious movement towards El Nino however for the most part i'm pretty positive.

 

Both the QBO and GLAAM are positive and should encourage the development of an El Nino like atmospheric response even if moderated by the PDO and so i would say that the odds of the warmest summer since 2006 are good with 2005 and 2010 not being bad analogues for what i expect (August probably not as bad as 2010). I think the bulk of the summer warmth will come in the mid-May-mid-July period with the second half being less impressive but probably close to average.

 

The caveat here is that there are signs of a decent hurricane season which could interfere with the pattern especially in the August-October period.

Thanks for your thoughts there. Yes im seeing a cool first half to May but a much improved second half myself as well as June. Well see how things pan out. Cheers.

[SP1986]

The northern blocking has been very persistent this Spring (earlier on mostly), and in my opinion there is nothing currently that will prevent it from persisting in general for the forseeable future. Despite those saying we are due a warm summer, I think the opposite, we are actually due a very cold summer? The frequency of cool, wet summers is astounding recently (in my neck of the woods anyway)... I don't like them that's for sure, but the pattern is not something to ignore. In my none scientific opinion, my feeling is that such summers are here to stay for a few years yet.. and i hope not as that would be a bitter experience after the last few. Remember it's localised experience too, some regions have had it better than others. 

 

The term locked in, doesn't mean for the rest of time of course, maybe it's only a month, but who knows?

Edited April 19, 2013 by SP1986

[Guest pjl20101]

I think the thing which seems to be influencing the northern blocking is the persistent melting of the arctic sea ice caps. It can't be solar activity otherwise the weather wouldn't fit in with the analogues. Can attribute it to the MJO to be honest. As that is the feature that seems to have influenced things with our weather the fact that it has been so active.

[hillbilly]

The northern blocking has been very persistent this Spring (earlier on mostly), and in my opinion there is nothing currently that will prevent it from persisting in general for the forseeable future. Despite those saying we are due a warm summer, I think the opposite, we are actually due a very cold summer? The frequency of cool, wet summers is astounding recently (in my neck of the woods anyway)... I don't like them that's for sure, but the pattern is not something to ignore. In my none scientific opinion, my feeling is that such summers are here to stay for a few years yet.. and i hope not as that would be a bitter experience after the last few. Remember it's localised experience too, some regions have had it better than others. 

 

The term locked in, doesn't mean for the rest of time of course, maybe it's only a month, but who knows?

in these parts we have had 6 rubbish summers in a row,i do remember 4 in a row 85 to 88,and that was bad until now its unprecidented,i didnt think we had ever had 5 bad ones in a row before never mind 7 surely we have to go back to the 1800s to get summers so poor.if winters have gone cooler  as 20 years ago why have the summers got worse?

[Tim]

in these parts we have had 6 rubbish summers in a row,i do remember 4 in a row 85 to 88,and that was bad until now its unprecidented,i didnt think we had ever had 5 bad ones in a row before never mind 7 surely we have to go back to the 1800s to get summers so poor.if winters have gone cooler  as 20 years ago why have the summers got worse?

 

Well the way I'm looking at it is in the 80's we had 83 & 89. The 70's 75 & 76. Even if you go back to the 1800's wasn't the warmest ever June recorded in the middle of them somewhere? We're bound to get a good summer at some point as the past shows it always happens. But as some people have been saying we also haven't had a really bad summer in terms of temperature either. 

 

I think it will go one of two ways. It'll either be really good or really bad!

[Guest pjl20101]

The reason being is the jetstream and it became meridional in 2007. Since then it kinda hasn't stopped with the low solar activity, negative PDO, protracted la Nina domination and the arctic sea ice caps melting. As well as other stuff like the stratosphere, the north atlantic conditions and the weather in the tropics.

Its just a natural reversal and with more volcanic activity possible it could result in more cooling ahead. Back to subject and it looks like the PDO could really play a part in this years summer with it going neutral or even positive from what I looked at with cfs anomolies chart.

With the seasonal models its very much like a boxing match of who is gonna win currently as ECM, CMA and jma are all going for something similar (northern blocking), wheras the jamstec iod and bcc are going for something slightly different (slightly warmer). Very much a dog eat dog situation at the moment methinks.

[Weather-history]

QBO (Neutral)

2008

2004

2002

2000

1999

1997

1995

1990

1985

1981

1980

MEI (Neutral-negative)

2009

2006

1985

1975

PDO (Neutral-Negative)

1964

1963

1959

1952

GLAMM (Neutral-positive)

2004

2002

1991

1979

1970

1958

February-March

2004

2002

And what they project...

4.png

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I don't understand how this works. I am assuming that February and March closely matches 2002 and 2004. If I have that correct then February and March 2013 were nothing like February and March 2002 and 2004. I don't understand how you can project future possibilities if what appears similar set-ups from those parameters can produce such a total different set-up for the UK. Edited April 21, 2013 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

I don't understand how this works. I am assuming that February and March closely matches 2002 and 2004. If I have that correct then February and March 2013 were nothing like February and March 2002 and 2004. I don't understand how you can project future possibilities if what appears similar set-ups from those parameters can produce such a total different set-up for the UK.

 

It's more of an experiment really.

[Summer Sun]

Latest summer forecast from Gavin Partridge

 

 

A mixed signal, but the trend continues to be rather poor unfortunately.

[Guest pjl20101]

Think Gavin p is pretty much echoing snow king and matt Hugo. To be honest I don't expect too much regrettably. Its the state of the arctic that is ruining the summers and I am beginning to be convinced by it. We are in a trend which sadly we cannot get out of, because of it, it is affecting the gulf stream and the jetstream.

[SP1986]

My only slight concern what with all the generally dry weather about, aside a few blips like today - are rainfall totals going to average themselves out, over the Summer season?

 

Whether it's warm or cold rain, is still rather questionable - i think that the pendulum could be swinging to a wetter than average one.Just my instinct and gut feeling throw in perhaps the law of averages not least the process of elimination.

 

We'll see eh 

I would go along with this, generally looking at weather records (not just my own but the official Bidston set), rainfall does not really change much; for example rainfall always seem to even itself out and come it somewhere around the average. it's very rare to have more or less than 100mm either side of your average, probably down to this evening out situation. This April we've had 1mm of measurable rain all month.. quite astounding, even by long term records, but I'm sure I'll end up with more than 20mm by the end of the month. This April may stands as a microcosm for summer as a whole. I'm not sure though.. I would go along with a wetter than average prediction, simply because that's what has been so prevalent in recent times. 

[Guest pjl20101]

Think Stephen that snow king is correct that we won't have brilliantly hot temperatures this summer, but rainfall amounts are actually close to normal and possibly dry in Ireland. 1978 and 1962 are definitely the nearest matches to the summer of this year.

[Evening thunder]

Not really sure where all this evidence for another poor summer is coming from? Last thing I saw it was uncertain and some members had more positive thoughts, as well as the CFS not being too bad though of course we can't know with much certainty what will happen at this stage. I haven't seen much actual evidence/charts posted on this thread at least.

 

Some people may expect/forecast a poor summer due to recent trends but that is a risky strategy, e.g the trend of mild winters and a few thinking cold ones weren't possible any more, and a lack of a proper cold March for many years (until this year)

a few may expect that or be pessimistic or say a pattern will get locked in, but a similar poster or two said something like March and early Aprils pattern would be locked in and the UK probably wouldn't see 20C until late May, instead we saw 22C less than 2 weeks after they said that.

 

Just seen the suggestions that dry weather at the moment means summer will probably be wet, due to nature balancing things out etc. That didn't seem to work after last April as the exceptionally wet April didn't mean a dry summer.. Indeed after the summer I was wondering if Autumn would be dry to return a nearer average yearly rainfall total. It wasn't, instead 2012 finished with 500mm more rain than normal which was about 160% above average.. 

 

If we use that argument how do we know current dry weather isn't 'balancing out' all the wet weather that lasted nearly a whole year before that?

 

March 2013 was wet here, (almost double the average mainly due to one big fall) maybe April is partly balancing that out here? for what it's worth 2013 rain to date is ahead of all other years in my record from 2008 to now.

 

Rolling a 6 doesn't decrease or increase your chance of rolling a 6 the next time, I think that is a reasonable analogy as I think weather is too complicated and statistics too random in the majority of cases to be able to make any meaningful predictions with.

[SP1986]

Well were certainly in a period of extremes recently, through the past few years with record warmth, and notable cold being recorded in equal measure (the latter this early Spring), so you would expect more of this topsy turvy weather into the summer... but whether that favours cold and or warmer the average, who knows.. the one thing that is quite clear to me, with regard to summer, is not the decline is heat (as that had happened on a handful of days), but the decline in thunderstorms around here.. which is pretty obvious... and disappointing.

 

You may criticise those for calling a long term cold spell around March to April, but its unfair to lynch them (I was one of them), as the cold spell was fairly prolonged and quite notable for  late March and early April.. so I think it's unfair to call that pessmistic, as it actually lasted nearly a month...

Edited April 21, 2013 by SP1986

[William of Walworth]

I would go along with this, generally looking at weather records (not just my own but the official Bidston set), rainfall does not really change much; for example rainfall always seem to even itself out and come it somewhere around the average. it's very rare to have more or less than 100mm either side of your average, probably down to this evening out situation. This April we've had 1mm of measurable rain all month.. quite astounding, even by long term records, but I'm sure I'll end up with more than 20mm by the end of the month. This April may stands as a microcosm for summer as a whole. I'm not sure though.. I would go along with a wetter than average prediction, simply because that's what has been so prevalent in recent times. 

Edited April 22, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Summer Sun]

There are a number of theories which some people use but most of the time the weather will do what it wants

 

1 was a bad spring puts us in a better position for a good summer well that one went down the drain last year

 

So far this year we appear to be balancing out the rainfall after an exceptionally wet 2012 2013 has started fairly dry for many with below average rainfall looking likely for many again his month there is nothing to stop this trend of lower rainfall continuing through the rest of spring and summer

[Methuselah]

I don't think there are any usable correlations. If there were, the professionals would have been using them for years...

Edited April 22, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[hillbilly]

I don't think there are any usable correlations. If there were, the professional would have been using them for years...

 

my sentiments entirely

[summer blizzard]

 

Marginal bias towards warmer conditions.

[Milhouse]

I must admit i am getting good vibes about this coming summer. Maybe not in terms of record warmth but in terms of dryness. High pressure never seems too far away looking into FI and theres no sign of a sucession of southerly tracking lows that have ruined many a Summer. Instead the jet stream looks fairly sluggish with little sign of it firing up any time soon.

[Mark Neal.]

Agree with Milhouse's comments above, also i believe that we end up balancing out in the end, after a horrible 12-18 months of mostly northern blocking i believe we will see a more high pressure and dry summer, mother nature will sort it out! 

[Costa Del Fal]

Its actually been pretty dry since February or so now here. With May potentially looking very dry also, are we slipping back into a prolonged dry spell again? Could be interesting if this coincides with the summer for a change too. Possibly warmer than normal too.

Edited April 25, 2013 by Blizzards

[Weather-history]

I must admit i am getting good vibes about this coming summer. Maybe not in terms of record warmth but in terms of dryness. High pressure never seems too far away looking into FI and theres no sign of a sucession of southerly tracking lows that have ruined many a Summer. Instead the jet stream looks fairly sluggish with little sign of it firing up any time soon.

I'm not sure how you can tell by looking at the present charts, how summer will turn out since it is only the end of April?