Summer 2013

[Guest pjl20101]

I think we are overdue a better summer than average nationwide!

My recap on last few summers is as follows;

2006 -nationwide brilliant summer, July was warmest since records began but August took the shine off things with a wetter than normal month.

2007- after 2006 a massive shock to the system, wet and cool everywhere but better spell end of July into August.

2008- although stats prove better than 07, I found it worst in Essex - mainly wet and cool - two better spells one in mid June and one at end of July. But August was a horror show unless you like cool wet conditions.

2009- best summer since 06, June was dry and had a hot spell nationwide at the end of the month, July was wet with normal temps, August had a NW/SE split, Essex was generally sunny warm and dry and I rated this month highly! June also had a very noticeable thunderstorm midmonth.

2010- June had good spells early and late, middle of June was dry and cool. July became another NW/SE split month, I thought this month was almost on par with the best in Essex - very dry with 1-2 days of rainfall - humid and hot at times too, especially at weekends! Avg max temp in July came out at 26c in Chelmsford from own records. August was polar opposite - a cool monsoon month on par with 2008! Thunderstorm activity non existent though.

2011- rather poor - not especially wet but nothing special. June had a couple of rather hot days (one being 33c) at end of month, July was slightly better and again August was cooler than normal but slightly wetter than normal. A rather drab summer overall. This year will be remembered for the warm spring and autumn which were noticeable.

2012- A summer of two halves- June and first half of July - awful - worst than 2007! The second half of July was very good for southern areas, August was enjoyable in Essex - some rather hot days especially midmonth (another 33c!), thunderstorm activity was high at start of month too here. Temps came in slightly above normal in August with drier than normal weather and this continued until the end of September. However the awful June will stick in my memory!

I think I would love another 06/76 type summer but I am not greedy and would be happy with a 1996 type summer which had it all and included an incredible storm in June.

My own view on this upcoming summer is simple - PDO is negative however we now have a +QBO / neutral MEO pattern - I think unfortunately for some a 2010 summer beckons with a NW/SE split very evident however if the PDO runs into more neutral figures then a better type is possible. I will issue my own forecast in May.

Add me onto Twitter to see more of my own weather views - @alexbweather

I agree Alex and best idea to look at the current SSTs of how things are panning out. That will give us clues of how the summer is going to go. Also mentioned by chiono in the strats thread is the polar vortex is gaining strength, should be interesting.

[Derp Patrol]

My ideal summer is temps of 26-30C during the day, dropping to a more comfortable 17-18C at night so that it is still in the low 20s well up to midnight, making it comfortable weather to sit outside in shorts and t-shirt enjoying a beer.

To make things a bit more variable, every now and then a heatwave with temps up to 35C on days where I am not travelling, and then days with thunderstorms and 30c - I love the feeling of the hot air and dark clouds when you can feel a thunderstorm is minutes away.

Absolutely no temperatures below 20C, otherwise it becomes too cool to wear t shirt and shorts.

I know that this is wishful thinking for where I live - just as well I will be moving to the Cote d'Azure in a year!

[Relativistic]

I think we are overdue a better summer than average nationwide!

My recap on last few summers is as follows;

2006 -nationwide brilliant summer, July was warmest since records began but August took the shine off things with a wetter than normal month.

2007- after 2006 a massive shock to the system, wet and cool everywhere but better spell end of July into August.

2008- although stats prove better than 07, I found it worst in Essex - mainly wet and cool - two better spells one in mid June and one at end of July. But August was a horror show unless you like cool wet conditions.

2009- best summer since 06, June was dry and had a hot spell nationwide at the end of the month, July was wet with normal temps, August had a NW/SE split, Essex was generally sunny warm and dry and I rated this month highly! June also had a very noticeable thunderstorm midmonth.

2010- June had good spells early and late, middle of June was dry and cool. July became another NW/SE split month, I thought this month was almost on par with the best in Essex - very dry with 1-2 days of rainfall - humid and hot at times too, especially at weekends! Avg max temp in July came out at 26c in Chelmsford from own records. August was polar opposite - a cool monsoon month on par with 2008! Thunderstorm activity non existent though.

2011- rather poor - not especially wet but nothing special. June had a couple of rather hot days (one being 33c) at end of month, July was slightly better and again August was cooler than normal but slightly wetter than normal. A rather drab summer overall. This year will be remembered for the warm spring and autumn which were noticeable.

2012- A summer of two halves- June and first half of July - awful - worst than 2007! The second half of July was very good for southern areas, August was enjoyable in Essex - some rather hot days especially midmonth (another 33c!), thunderstorm activity was high at start of month too here. Temps came in slightly above normal in August with drier than normal weather and this continued until the end of September. However the awful June will stick in my memory!

I think I would love another 06/76 type summer but I am not greedy and would be happy with a 1996 type summer which had it all and included an incredible storm in June.

My own view on this upcoming summer is simple - PDO is negative however we now have a +QBO / neutral MEO pattern - I think unfortunately for some a 2010 summer beckons with a NW/SE split very evident however if the PDO runs into more neutral figures then a better type is possible. I will issue my own forecast in May.

Add me onto Twitter to see more of my own weather views - @alexbweather

A lot of people complained about last Summer, but in terms of warmth last Summer was pretty decent down here. Plenty of hot days and sunshine post mid July, although thunderstorms were lacking a little. We had a couple in August but nothing spectacular.

[Bottesford]

Last summer did have some warmer days after mid July but with a year max of 26.8c there were absolutely no hot days at all (really 'hot' is 28c or above).

August did save the summer and in the garden things actually got growing again. Sadly it was too late for long season crops (peppers) which then didn't start ripening till late Sept by which time sunlight is scant.

[SP1986]

I would like a 2004 style summer, generally warm, but with plenty of humidity and thunderstorms.. great growing weather for the garden too.. If I have say what do i think this summer will be like.. well I think cool and wet like the last few, as the jetstream get caught over us and perhaps maybe more south.

I definitely wish for a warm summer, but we're in a different climate territory now, and that could mean a series of cold winters and cool summers - as much as I abhor the idea.

for what it's worth, I'd happily take a cool or below average summer if it was almost wholely sunny.. but that's very unlikely, as cool or below average summers are almost always synonymous with rain

Edited April 5, 2013 by SP1986

[Alex]

I agree Alex and best idea to look at the current SSTs of how things are panning out. That will give us clues of how the summer is going to go. Also mentioned by chiono in the strats thread is the polar vortex is gaining strength, should be interesting.

Sea state temperatures do impact on our weather but with most of the Atlantic ocean having average or even above temps I don't think it will impact too much on this summer. The one big impact it will have during the rest of Spring though is increase the chances of low cloud and mist with any onshore wind, especially if we get an easterly wind - eastern facing coasts will be impacted the most with well below temperatures in the North Sea.

I am not surprised by the possible polar vortex gaining strength, the stratosphere is going through a period of well below temperatures this should help pressure rise over the mid latitude regions.

Edited April 5, 2013 by Alex

[NUT]

Give me a NW/SE Split anytime (all the cloud/rain reserved for the notrhwest including us at times) SE hot and dry. That's the way I remember summers of the past

[Ben_Cambs]

Would agree that there have been some decent summer months in the past few years (for here at least, though I know it's not been the case for quite a few members), a few that come to mind are August 2009, June + July 2010 and August 2012. Last August in particular was a good month IMO with 28 out of 31 days recording a maximum of over 20C+, quite a few days of 25C+ and a couple of days 30C+ which also included a couple of decent thunderstorms.

Ideal summer temperatures for me are around 24-26C, with low humidity and a slight breeze, coupled with clear blue skies and a few thunderstorms. Would also be nice to get a decent Spanish plume this summer with temperatures pushing 35C+ and some decent thunderstorms! Hopefully we don't see any NE'ly winds like we did last July, which really did suppress temperatures, or any persistent rain events like last June which again suppressed temperatures, I can remember one day the temperature scraping 10C in June with persistent rain, felt more like an October day!

[Tamara]

Sea state temperatures do impact on our weather but with most of the Atlantic ocean having average or even above temps I don't think it will impact too much on this summer. The one big impact it will have during the rest of Spring though is increase the chances of low cloud and mist with any onshore wind, especially if we get an easterly wind - eastern facing coasts will be impacted the most with well below temperatures in the North Sea.

I am not surprised by the possible polar vortex gaining strength, the stratosphere is going through a period of well below temperatures this should help pressure rise over the mid latitude regions.

Sea temperatures are starting the season well below figures we usually see at this time of year. Effectively we are not much longer than a week or so from the middle of Spring and Spring itself is yet to start, let alone any summer type weather.

The effects you mention already in terms of low cloud and mist are very true, but for some time to come any warmer airstream is surely going to be modified by these anomalously low sea temperatures. The 12.5C isotherm is at least some 300 hundred miles or more further south than usual at this time of year

The atmospheric feedback pattern from the long extended winter season is going to impact too I think and I am not sure the jet stream is going to be compliant this summer for those wanting heat. Possibly the coming late Spring and Summer is the hardest yet to predict - all bets seem to be off atm

Edited April 5, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Thundery wintry showers]

I definitely wish for a warm summer, but we're in a different climate territory now, and that could mean a series of cold winters and cool summers - as much as I abhor the idea.

for what it's worth, I'd happily take a cool or below average summer if it was almost wholely sunny.. but that's very unlikely, as cool or below average summers are almost always synonymous with rain

Indeed, I feel that we might be heading into an era of cold winters and cool summers thanks to the southerly tracking jet stream. I'm happy to take the cold winters but not too keen on a continued run of cool cloudy wet summers.

Historically sunny but cool Junes have been relatively common, often associated with northerly and north-westerly winds accompanied by limited frontal activity, though there haven't been many examples in recent years. It's always been a rare combination in July and August though, when we usually see a stronger jet stream.

My definition of "hot" is just one degree short of Bottesford's- I usually think of 27C as the threshold, and neither he nor I reached that threshold last summer. Having moved to inland North Yorkshire I imagine that I should surpass that value rather more often than I used to at Cleadon near the South Tyneside coast (2006 was the last time Cleadon reached or exceeded 27C, though I was away in Norwich during the summers of 2008-2010 where it got as high as 30C a couple of times). However, a possible pattern change to a generally southerly tracking jet might screw that up somewhat!

Edited April 5, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Supercell 89]

I'd agree with what Alex has said about the PDO and QBO. If it continues in the same vein as it is currently i would expect another cool but perhaps not as wet summer, certainly not as bad as last year, more in line with 2011 perhaps. But if the PDO does trend more neutral or even positive then we could get a half decent summer, still we will have to wait and see how it unfolds, the solar output hasn't filled me with much confidence of late.

[Guest pjl20101]

Best idea is to look at the solar cycle 24 propagation on google search and look at the solar flux signals. Also to look at the solar cycle 24 website and analyse if the solar cycle is above or below where it should be. It seems like November 2011 was the peak at the moment and apparently we are due a second peak at some point between now and next year.

The GloSea4 model Supercell 89 I think is the most reliable and consistent one at handling it currently and should be looked at regularly.

[Scorcher]

Does anyone have historical SST information? I was just thinking about previous cool/cold springs- 2006 springs to mind- I imagine SSTs were below normal then and we still had an early warm spell in the first week of May that year. I really do question how much of an influence the low SSTs will have on any potential warm weather- I think this may be being overstated by some. If we get a southerly or a south-easterly wind they pass over quite short stretches of water so I imagine modification would be minimal, and direct easterlies only cross a relatively short stretch of the North Sea for the southern half of the country.

[Bottesford]

I would agree - hot weather (usually from southerlies or south-easterlies) has only a short sea track and wouldn't be modified so much.

The low SSTs would make any Atlantic weather feel cooler - but perhaps have less energy (and thus rain) in them than usual. This could be a good thing for reducing the likelihood of long periods of wet weather at least during late spring/early summer.

[Supercell 89]

Best idea is to look at the solar cycle 24 propagation on google search and look at the solar flux signals. Also to look at the solar cycle 24 website and analyse if the solar cycle is above or below where it should be. It seems like November 2011 was the peak at the moment and apparently we are due a second peak at some point between now and next year.

The GloSea4 model Supercell 89 I think is the most reliable and consistent one at handling it currently and should be looked at regularly.

Cheers Will have a look at that one.

I use the data from NOAA usually as it displays the last 30 days so you can spot trends. Seems to be having an active spurt at the moment but who knows how long it will last. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would agree - hot weather (usually from southerlies or south-easterlies) has only a short sea track and wouldn't be modified so much.

The low SSTs would make any Atlantic weather feel cooler - but perhaps have less energy (and thus rain) in them than usual. This could be a good thing for reducing the likelihood of long periods of wet weather at least during late spring/early summer.

I think it's mainly an issue for North Sea coastal areas whenever we get synoptic setups that are often associated with low cloud from the North Sea, but yes, I don't think the low SSTs are generally as big a stumbling block as some are fearing. I remember that in Tyneside the summer of 1996 got hot at times (it got to 27C around the 21st July, and hit 30C on the 18th August), following a cold winter and spring, and there was a fine May there in 2001 following frequent cold weather from January-April, and that region of the UK is particularly prone to "haar" during late spring and summer. 1975 was a particularly good example of a year with a cold spring followed by a hot summer. Edited April 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Milhouse]

1947 saw a cold March followed by the second warmest May of the last 100 years bettered only by 1992. Summer also was also consistently warm and dry.

[Milhouse]

I think June 2010 was the last very good summer month, indeed before last year the last couple of Junes were at least pretty decent,

It was the last proper nationwide good summer month with high pressure making frequent visits to the UK. Since then July 2011 and August 2012 were also good but July 2010 was rather disappointingly dull.

Edited April 7, 2013 by Milhouse

[virtualsphere]

I am optimistic we can still get a decent summer - if not this year then at some point in the future. The interesting thing about this year is that we're starting from a different position, having had a very cold spring so far, which is an unknown quantity in the post-2007 period, but this is one of the reasons why I still think it's possible to have a warm, dry summer.

Since 2007, we've now had two very warm Aprils, and a very warm March, and yet this year we've had a very cold spring (so far). Following the warm, dry April in 2011 we had a cool wet April in 2012. We've had colder winters, but also winter 2011-12, which was more akin to average with a warmer December following the cold December 2010. So even in the last few years, despite the tendency for greater blocking to the north, and a southerly tracking jet, we have seen variety in the winter and the spring. I can't see why the same couldn't happen in summer - it certainly has in June, with 2010 being a complete contrast to 2012.

The problem has been that, with the jet tracking further south, in the summer when the jet traditionally moves north it moves the depressions over the UK rather than north of the UK. Given the variation in other months surely it should still be possible for the jet to track further south but with the troughs and ridges positioned slightly more favourably, with a trough setting up west of the UK rather than over us - like parts of June 2010 and March 2012:

There is probably a reason for this not occuring more frequently in July and August (any views from the experts?).

Here in the west one modest challenge would be to get a dry and sunny summer overall, even if it's not hot. June 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb as being pretty much the only decent sunny summer month here since 2007. Surely that has to improve at some point even if we don't have a repeat of 1995 or 2006!

Edited April 7, 2013 by virtualsphere

[95 Degrees]

It was the last proper nationwide good summer month with high pressure making frequent visits to the UK. Since then July 2011 and August 2012 were also good but July 2010 was rather disappointingly dull.

July 2011 was awful here, never again!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm quite convinced now we'll see a drier than average summer. June and August the warmest, driest months with an indifferent July wedged inbetween.

I can't see any evidence that we'll experience the wet months of previous years.

Edited April 7, 2013 by CreweCold

[William of Walworth]

Yes, I'd also appreciate your thinking on that one, CC.

Do you think the Jet will track to a more Northerly position this summer than we've been used to in recent years?

Surely where the Jetstream positions itself is the biggest key to how the summer pans out. I'm concerned in this thread about one or two members suggesting that a Southerly tracking Jet is becoming a regular feature for our summers. But is there anything to stop its position reverting to a more Northerly position this time?

If it did, and I say if, we could enjoy a much more benign summer this year.

My main personal hope is that 15-30 June sees no rain at all, and a lot of sunshine. Many thousands of Somerset goers in that last week/weekend of June would thank the weather gods for this. Will ask JACKONE to start his by now traditional, and much welcomed/appreciated, Glastonbury Festival weather thread once we're into May.

[Milhouse]

July 2011 was awful here, never again!

I meant to say July 2010 which was consistently warm and dry albeit rather cloudy and humid for a lot of the time. Which does mean some nice warm evenings however. July 2011 here was also awful. There was a nice warm spell at the start but the 2nd half of the month was dominated by cloudy cool northerlies.

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps for April have updated

2m temperature has a 40% chance of been above normal and 20% for below normal

850hpa temperature also has a 40% chance of been above normal

Precipitation looks about normal for most with the exception of the south west where it has a 40% chance of been below normal

[Bobby]

Truth is none of us have much of a clue how this summer will turn out. We can make guesses, have hunches and that's about it realistically. My hunch is a cool/close to average summer temperature wise with above average rainfall although not to the extreme of last summer. Another fairly disappointing summer in other words, we've had plenty of over recent years so I'll stick with the trend.