Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

We need to move with the times so i thought it was time to start discussion about Summer. The Winter thread was onto part 3 in early October so my thoughts are now turning towards what Summer might deliver this year. Hopefully plenty of heat, high pressure and thundery plumes.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Hopefully this year will see a departure from the last 6 summers where the jet stream was sent crashing into Spain. Strong heights over Europe will be key to how this summer pans out. Hopefully we can get high pressure in the right place for warmth just as its been in the right place for cold since mid January.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pjl20101

At this rate I am inclined to think that our summer this year won't be anything special, that said it probably won't bring the worst of anything which I don't think is a bad thing necessarily. Would advise the posters to monitor the met office GloSea4 model, as that seems like an on the ball model, it is nailing the spring so far and I can see it being correct for the summer as well.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

At this rate I am inclined to think that our summer this year won't be anything special, that said it probably won't bring the worst of anything which I don't think is a bad thing necessarily. Would advise the posters to monitor the met office GloSea4 model, as that seems like an on the ball model, it is nailing the spring so far and I can see it being correct for the summer as well.

Whats its range and if it stratches as far as Summer what is it showing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I really enjoy this cold windy weather, its great for getting out in the garden, or sitting by the local lake with hypothermia

Much nicer than summer.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

In terms of the ENSO and QBO phases i am inclined to believe that we stand the best chance since 2006 of a warm summer, with that said however the caveat here is the persistent -PDO phase and it's correlation to the AO would indicate a summer more in line with the 2007-2012 period.

All to play for at the moment.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly too long away for any predictions but we are at least overdue something better than recent summers. I know the last 6 haven't all been bad but the good bits have been few and fair between with sunshine especially being in short supply. Warmth has often come from high night minima rather than hot sunny weather.

For the sake of farmers, gardeners and everyone who doesn't want their food & beer prices to rise - lets hope we get a sunny, warm one with some rain but drier rather than wetter for a change!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite wanting a good summer i dont wish it was a complete 3 month droughtfest. A bit of rain in summer is nice to contribute to ideal growing conditions and to prevent fields from becoming dustbowls. I dont like the sight of rain in summer though so i would be very happy if it were to mostly come at night.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite wanting a good summer i dont wish it was a complete 3 month droughtfest. A bit of rain in summer is nice to contribute to ideal growing conditions and to prevent fields from becoming dustbowls. I dont like the sight of rain in summer though so i would be very happy if it were to mostly come at night.

Yes we do need some rain but not saving itself up for my bbq day like it did last year on two occasions! Occassional thunderstorms in late evenings/nights Sunday-Thursday would be spot on.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Despite being a mild lover I dont like very hot weather, just err mildPosted Image , temps near average or just slightly above for the summer months would suite fine, and lots of convective type showers and thundery spells , but not the washout frontal rain from the Atlantic.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So when was the last "average" summer with good growing conditions, no heat waves, droughts or floods.

Seems like the last 10 years have been plagued with the above.

2003 August Heatwave http://en.wikipedia....opean_heat_wave

2006 July Heatwave http://en.wikipedia....opean_heat_wave

2007 Summer of floods http://en.wikipedia...._Kingdom_floods

2008 Parts of UK received 170% of avg rainfall http://www.metoffice...008/summer.html

2009 July 200% wetter than average http://www.metoffice...009/summer.html

2010 August some flooding http://www.guardian....outhern-england

2011 drought in southern half of England http://www.metoffice...011/summer.html

2012 Wettest in 100 years http://www.metoffice...-wettest-summer

Can't remember the other years in the last decade? Any extremes?

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
Link to post
Share on other sites

Endless heat would normally get to me if it occurred year after year but after recent summers i could take a summer even hotter than 1976 and still find it pleasureable.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

So when was the last "average" summer with good growing conditions, no heat waves such as 2003 and 2006, no droughts such as 2011 ( southern UK) and no floods such as 2007 and 2012?

Every month in 2005 was fairly average on all 3 main factors (temperature, sunshine and rainfall). Although, more recently 2009 and 2010 come out as fairly average summers on the whole.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think summer will fire a few surprises our way this year. We are well overdue a good hot and dry month (June, July or August) and I would welcome it, I love warm weather as much as I love Winter cold and snow. Some thunderstorms too please.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Every month in 2005 was fairly average on all 3 main factors (temperature, sunshine and rainfall). Although, more recently 2009 and 2010 come out as fairly average summers on the whole.

Summer 2005 was a summer of two halves.

The first half was much warmer, drier and sunnier than average (the second half of June was the hottest since 1976 and the mid-June-mid-July period averages close to 18C i believe) however the second half of summer 2005 was pretty dank and depressing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think summer will fire a few surprises our way this year. We are well overdue a good hot and dry month (June, July or August) and I would welcome it, I love warm weather as much as I love Winter cold and snow. Some thunderstorms too please.

I think June 2010 was the last very good summer month, indeed before last year the last couple of Junes were at least pretty decent,

Edited by Jackone
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think June 2010 was the last very good summer month, indeed before last year the last couple of Junes were at least pretty decent,

Good point, people seem to overlook the fact that we've had some good Junes. June 2010 was an excellent month for many and 2009 was good too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we are overdue a better summer than average nationwide!

My recap on last few summers is as follows;

2006 -nationwide brilliant summer, July was warmest since records began but August took the shine off things with a wetter than normal month.

2007- after 2006 a massive shock to the system, wet and cool everywhere but better spell end of July into August.

2008- although stats prove better than 07, I found it worst in Essex - mainly wet and cool - two better spells one in mid June and one at end of July. But August was a horror show unless you like cool wet conditions.

2009- best summer since 06, June was dry and had a hot spell nationwide at the end of the month, July was wet with normal temps, August had a NW/SE split, Essex was generally sunny warm and dry and I rated this month highly! June also had a very noticeable thunderstorm midmonth.

2010- June had good spells early and late, middle of June was dry and cool. July became another NW/SE split month, I thought this month was almost on par with the best in Essex - very dry with 1-2 days of rainfall - humid and hot at times too, especially at weekends! Avg max temp in July came out at 26c in Chelmsford from own records. August was polar opposite - a cool monsoon month on par with 2008! Thunderstorm activity non existent though.

2011- rather poor - not especially wet but nothing special. June had a couple of rather hot days (one being 33c) at end of month, July was slightly better and again August was cooler than normal but slightly wetter than normal. A rather drab summer overall. This year will be remembered for the warm spring and autumn which were noticeable.

2012- A summer of two halves- June and first half of July - awful - worst than 2007! The second half of July was very good for southern areas, August was enjoyable in Essex - some rather hot days especially midmonth (another 33c!), thunderstorm activity was high at start of month too here. Temps came in slightly above normal in August with drier than normal weather and this continued until the end of September. However the awful June will stick in my memory!

I think I would love another 06/76 type summer but I am not greedy and would be happy with a 1996 type summer which had it all and included an incredible storm in June.

My own view on this upcoming summer is simple - PDO is negative however we now have a +QBO / neutral MEO pattern - I think unfortunately for some a 2010 summer beckons with a NW/SE split very evident however if the PDO runs into more neutral figures then a better type is possible. I will issue my own forecast in May.

Add me onto Twitter to see more of my own weather views - @alexbweather

Edited by Alex
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, June 09 and 10 had some great spells of weather. In lots of ways, if I was only offered one good summer month, I would choose June everytime. The beaches are less crowded, kids still at school and the longest days!

Alex, sounds like the SE has seen the best of recent summers. I can't remember the Midlands being quite as good.

The best summer of all is one that receives plenty of warm days interspersed with great thunderstorms to clear the air before things get too overbearing. No real heatwaves to speak of but plenty of days in the low to mid twenties with pleasant breezes. Name that summer?

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
Link to post
Share on other sites

The last good summer for me was 2010, July was excellent with many days above 25 degrees with 30 pushed a few times (I lived 15 miles inland at the time but same area). The other summers were rather forgettable with 2011/12 being pretty bad.

As for this summer, I will wait for Maddens thoughts and then go with the opposite. Posted Image

We are due a good summer though countrywide.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...