Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13

[johnholmes]

The differing views on what MIGHT happen when in truth no human being has the faintest idea in any detail 5-7 days ahead is a good demonstration of how weather models can be mis- used in my view.

Five let alone 7 days ahead no human without a weather model has the foggiest idea what will happen. We can show using one or other model, preferably a mix of them, what the model(s) is/are predicting but to issue a statement that suggests certainty is a fairly good recipe for ending with ‘egg on face’ in my experience. By all means show using a model what that model is currently predicting and use your knowledge and experience to suggest the probable outcome, say in % terms but that is about it in my view. But then I’m an old crotchety falla so maybe best to ignore my ramblings.

[Frosty.]

I mean no disrespect here, Frosty039, but you're being oversimplistic in your assessment re. next Thursday and basically throwing words around - E.g. the part highlighted.

 

Resolved or not, current model output does not show any risk of showers or thunder for next Thursday. Simple.

there is a shallow trough formation on the ecm 00z between the cold unstable air to the north and the warmer air to the south, i've looked at all the output today and all the models treat the breakdown slightly differently, for you to say it's been resolved already is rather arrogant.

Edited April 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Methuselah]

The differing views on what MIGHT happen when in truth no human being has the faintest idea in any detail 5-7 days ahead is a good demonstration of how weather models can be mis- used in my view.

Five let alone 7 days ahead no human without a weather model has the foggiest idea what will happen. We can show using one or other model, preferably a mix of them, what the model(s) is/are predicting but to issue a statement that suggests certainty is a fairly good recipe for ending with ‘egg on face’ in my experience. By all means show using a model what that model is currently predicting and use your knowledge and experience to suggest the probable outcome, say in % terms but that is about it in my view. But then I’m an old crotchety falla so maybe best to ignore my ramblings.

But your 'ramblings' are spot on, John...If there's one thing I've learned, after 10 years' model-watching, it's simply this: whatever it is that they're indicating (7 days' down the line) it's seldom ever going to be right; and 'knowing' that they're unlikely to be right is a perfectly valid way of reading/discussing them - IMO...

[nitro_deluxe]

Yep, methinks Johnholmes has dotted the i's and crossed the t's on that one..

[phil nw.]

It`s true that things can and often do change nearer the time as John has alluded to in his post.

I am sure most of the views are posted with this in mind and are simply trying to express what current outputs are showing.

Of course these views will vary and this is what this thread is about so no one should be put off from expressing their viewpoint.

There are often different interpretations of the models but all views are welcome especially if linked to some data so we can all understand that view.

Edited April 20, 2013 by phil nw.

[mushymanrob]

imho theres a difference between thunder and a thunderstorm. we quite often get the odd clap in showers , but to me an odd clap or two does not a storm make. i dont think there will be a tstorm, but an odd clap here and there isnt beyond the realms of reality.

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles show the cool down to be just a 3 day blip before they swiftly recover again if we do get an easterly in May it could well be a hot one given that continent is heating up quickly now

 

 

[legritter]

afternoon all ,iv been running around friends from canada last 2 weeks and plenty of varied weather .will catch up with you all after they return next week .its amazing but we seemed to miss or dodge most of the nasty weather but possible change on the horizon soon .nice to see plenty of constructive posts cheers .

[phil nw.]

Time for a new thread i reckon so just hold off posting just for minute of two whilst i open a new one.

[phil nw.]

OK locking this now.New thread here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76426-model-output-discussion-12z-200413/