Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[oldsnowywizard]

yes agreed ..... but... we have the thinnest weakest pack of ice ever... and yet... it is melting normally for now.... at least.....

[Methuselah]

yes agreed ..... but... we have the thinnest weakest pack of ice ever... and yet... it is melting normally for now.... at least.....

Indeed. Let's just hope it stays that way??

[BornFromTheVoid]

Substantially and extremely ? come on guys at least be a little less Extreme.... substantially is a power word and implies that temps will be 20 degrees higher than normal--- temps at this time of year of course get warmer.. it is near to the longest day in the year.... (although it doesnt feel it).. temps should be closing in to above 0 in the next few weeks which always happens... still a healthy amount of cold 850s.. albeit not an indication of how cold it is at the surface..

 

as GW mentions there is more to it than just temperature... which means regardless of the cold being locked up there... (despite it also being over much of Europe.. with snow in Germany, Switzerland and Italy) we should given the thin ice be seeing a much earlier reduction in sea ice extent... it takes less than half the time to melt 30 cms block of ice compared to 1 meter.. so in my humble opinion i am a little suprised to see things as they are right now... it therefore suggests that many other variables are also behaving... (despite 3 major solar storms last month.. does this impact ice???)

 

not a recovery, not a turn around but just making the best of what is a terrible situation!

 

Ah come on now, no need for misrepresenting me. I said things would "warm up substantially."

I think an increase in 850hPa temps from -12C to +8C, and increased surface temperatures from -12C to >0C, could easily be considered substantial.

 

It's been a coldest December to April period the Arctic since 2009, and the recent weeks of +ve AO has helped keep more of the cold in place, reducing ice melt. We don't need any other variable to explain what has been a non-eventful melt season so far. Just as when the melt rate increases as things warm up substantially, no other unknown variable will be needed to explain what's happening.

 

As it is, we're only just over 500,000km2 off the lowest on record for the time of year, and just ~160,000km2 off 2012, which was much warmer during May.

 

 

 

If the temperatures climb as forecast during the next week, and we still remain within 175,000km2 of the long term mean, then we might need to look for some explanations

[knocker]

Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose the next week will give us opportunity to see how the central ice acts under a 990mb depression for 4 or 5 days?

 

I just had a read of 'Nevens' sea ice update

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

 

and the image that 'A Team' posted of a recent sat image (enhanced to highlight the cracks) in the Beaufort Sea area must remind us that not only do we have thin ice again this year but that it also underwent mass deformation through February.

 

Just the pressure drop will lead to ice breaks (never mind the full moon tides?) but if we see gusty enough conditions we may see the pack pushed out towards the warmer coastal regions?

 

As BFTV says if things don't change over the next week maybe we might need to look for explanations?

[knocker]

Russia plans urgent evacuation of Arctic post as ice melts

Moscow: Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16-strong crew of a drifting Arctic research station after the ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate, officials said on Thursday.

Natural Resources and Ecology Minister Sergei Donskoi set a three-day deadline to draft a plan to evacuate the North Pole-40 floating research station.

"The destruction of the ice has put at risk the station's further work and life of its staff," the ministry said in a statement.

 

 

The station is currently home to 16 personnel including oceanologists, meteorologists, engineers and a doctor.

 

 

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/russia-plans-urgent-evacuation-of-arctic-post-as-ice-melts-370670

[BornFromTheVoid]

The slow melt continues, with a drop of just 27k yesterday to take us to within 136k of the 79-11 average (NSIDC extent).

 

With some very warm air reaching Hudson Bay and some large temperature increases around the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, the melt rate should accelerate during the week.

[4wd]

Russia plans urgent evacuation of Arctic post as ice melts

 

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/russia-plans-urgent-evacuation-of-arctic-post-as-ice-melts-370670

 

I wonder why the article presents it as a global warming story.

Presumably the floating base will have needed relocating many times previously.

Ice is not melting unusually rapidly at the moment.

[songster]

I wonder why the article presents it as a global warming story.Presumably the floating base will have needed relocating many times previously.Ice is not melting unusually rapidly at the moment.

Because the base was expected to last at least another 3 months, until near the end of this year's melting season. It was established in ~September last year on the largest, thickest multi-year ice floe they could find. These should not normally melt out or fragment until September of the following year, if at all. However, they ended up having to use a floe considerably thinner than originally planned, because last year's melt was so extreme that there simply wasn't anything better that they could find to use. To see it breaking up this early in the season, well before the main melt is underway, is a sign that the ice cover as a whole is thinner, more fragile, and more liable to fracture under the normal stresses of an Arctic spring.

[Gray-Wolf]

The Russians have been deploying a station for 40yrs Four. Apparently other 'rescues' have been over high summer as the floe is lost to Fram and the ice melts out due to location?

 

Last year they were forced to go looking for the floe at sea whereas 'normally' they would choose a floe from shore observations. They spent a long while looking for a suitable flow and had already had to move the station due to a partial break up of the floe?

 

I'd remind you again Four, just because something has happened before doesn't make it 'normal' or 'natural'. We always need look at the individual circumstances driving an event to see whether it is 'similar' to other occurrences?

 

EDIT:

 

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2013052418_2013060100_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif

 

Now there's a very symmetrically pleasing image!!!

 

Is it possible that we will see this formation as 'the new' summer phase of the Arctic with L.P. systems being drawn into the central polar region (with the help of the planets orbital spin) flinging well fragmented ice out to the peripheries and melt?

 

Let us see what this week brings in terms of ice behaviour and the extended forecast for the L.P.'s behaviour into June? We also need to think about where the advected air is bound and also who is to 'benefit' from the air expelled from the Arctic.

Edited May 28, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

yes agreed ..... but... we have the thinnest weakest pack of ice ever... and yet... it is melting normally for now.... at least.....

 

Volume was higher this year and as I said 6 weeks ago we continue to trend towards the 1990s figures which is good

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

There was a suggestion by some we would be at 10m by month end. Should be a bit above 11.5m.

 

Still happy with my 5.8m forecast, still early days.

Edited May 28, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Volume was higher this year and as I said 6 weeks ago we continue to trend towards the 1990s figures which is good

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

There was a suggestion by some we would be at 10m by month end. Should be a bit above 11.5m.

 

Still happy with my 5.8m forecast, still early days.

 

Volume, at the last PIOMASS point, is lowest on record, albeit, not by much. The average thickness appears to be lowest on record also.

 

 

Which people suggested we'd be at 10 million by months end?

 

I'll be opening up a new poll for the ARCUS predictions in the next few days (first deadline is June 7th), and I may even consider upping my guess a little, given the tendency for a reversed dipole and +ve AO lately.

[stewfox]

Volume, at the last PIOMASS point, is lowest on record, albeit, not by much. The average thickness appears to be lowest on record also.

 

Which people suggested we'd be at 10 million by months end?

 

I'll be opening up a new poll for the ARCUS predictions in the next few days (first deadline is June 7th), and I may even consider upping my guess a little, given the tendency for a reversed dipole and +ve AO lately.

 

I think you know I was referring to 6 weeks ago.

 

The 10m comment I cant find (too many artic threads this year) so happy to retract it. Small increase today (yes I know it means nothing) but 200k short of the 1980s average. 5 mins into a 90 min game but we aren't 6-0 down yet.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

Edited May 29, 2013 by stewfox

[Geordiesnow]

I think you know I was referring to 6 weeks ago.

 

The 10m comment I cant find (too many artic threads this year) so happy to retract it. Small increase today (yes I know it means nothing) but 200k short of the 1980s average. 5 mins into a 90 min game but we aren't 6-0 down yet.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

Yep, bit surprising too see an increase at this time of year, I do feel the new satellite on Jaxa is still a bit hit and miss in terms of extent figures so it would not surprise me if we see a fairly big drop on tomorrows update but the general trend is that 2013 at least at the moment is higher than most years in the last 10 years and that on face value the ice looks slightly better than this time last year if albeit thicknesses are not as high this year. 

 

I've been keeping an eye on the Danish 30% concentration ice extent charts and that is also showing 2013 so far being the highest in the past 8 years. Rather interestingly, 2012 extent starts to drop quite sharply at this point so if things remain more or less the same then I don't expect this year too see such a quick drop in the early part of June like last year did but as per ever, conditions can change very quickly so its one too watch. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GD Snow!

 

I'm also waiting for a 'shock' (glad if it does not appear needless to say?) But the state of the ice and past (6 yrs of low ice) experience warns me to look at the max ice loss period in mind of where we stand today? 

 

I will (honestly!!!) be greatly relieved if we do not drop below 07's 'perfect storm' losses but what does it tell us if we do?

 

07' was born out of a 'Perfect Storm', anything less than this 'collaboration of natural forcings'  must raise questions as to what is happening across the Arctic Basin should we once again smash this 'record' year(Surely?) again?

 

Should a 'slow start' lead to a 'record loss' what are we to think?

Edited May 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think you know I was referring to 6 weeks ago.

 

The 10m comment I cant find (too many artic threads this year) so happy to retract it. Small increase today (yes I know it means nothing) but 200k short of the 1980s average. 5 mins into a 90 min game but we aren't 6-0 down yet.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

Apologies Stew, the way you phrased it, "as I said 6 weeks ago", I thought you meant that what you said 6 weeks ago still applies now.

NSIDC extent has dropped 200k in the last 2 days, so some pretty stark differences between the data sets.

[stewfox]

Apologies Stew, the way you phrased it, "as I said 6 weeks ago", I thought you meant that what you said 6 weeks ago still applies now.

NSIDC extent has dropped 200k in the last 2 days, so some pretty stark differences between the data sets.

 

In need and both look at 15% ?? I wonder if local wind patterns have a bigger influence at this time of year with a thinner fragmented pack ?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think some of the sensors are having issues with fog and low cloud? When you look at modis you can see through some of the murk to the ice below and the LP over the pole is starting to impact with a lot of dark water appearing? We look to move into a more settled picture next week so we should get a good look then (expect some pretty big drops though?).

[Geordiesnow]

In need and both look at 15% ?? I wonder if local wind patterns have a bigger influence at this time of year with a thinner fragmented pack ?

 

 

I would doubt that is the case, JAXA and NSIDC are measured slightly differently with the latter being on a 5 day average measure I seem to recall. Nonetheless, both show 2013 above 2012 and both show the 2013 extent to be more or less near the 2003 extent line so I don't think there is much of an issue there at the moment.

 

Whilst it looks like we will get a reverse di-pole, the models are hinting at the low/cyclone across the basin to deepen quite rapidly again, still a bit far out at this stage but its one to keep an eye on for sure. Although it may give some memories of last August, there are a couple of differences, this low will have proper cold air still mixed in, there is no real  warmth being pumped in from the landmasses from this low unlike the August cyclone and the ice is likely to be more concentrated but with what GW menturns about fairly deep low pressure systems putting cracks into the ice, it will be interesting what impacts it will have on the ice if a deep low does occur. 

[VillagePlank]

IJIS sea-ice extent data shows that, currently, the rate of decline in sea-ice is slower than the decadel top end range.

 

 

(Bounds are median +/- 1.96stdev)

 

Only just there, but interesting, nevertheless, and certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

Norsex area and extent.

 

 

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice higest ice extent for 12yrs (redline)http://t.co/EtlejQRqOC

Edited May 31, 2013 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

 

Wipneus, over on Nevens, is churning out the AMSR2 data in image form and you can see in his latest (above) what the current L.P. is doing to the ice under it.

 

Folk there , with more knowledge than I could claim to have, are talking about the 'eckman pumping' the low will induce( breaking through the halocline and placing the ice bottom in contact with much warmer waters?) so we should be expecting a crash in ice extent/concentration under the position of the low?

 

With a pretty big HP then moving in our side of the Basin Barentsz and Kara look to have a couple of days of high melt before another LP takes up position over the pole?

 

I knew this year must be different from recent years (due to last summers melt and late winter fragmentation) and I cannot recall other seasons starting with LP's over the pole?

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Wipneus, over on Nevens, is churning out the AMSR2 data in image form and you can see in his latest (above) what the current L.P. is doing to the ice under it.

 

Folk there , with more knowledge than I could claim to have, are talking about the 'eckman pumping' the low will induce( breaking through the halocline and placing the ice bottom in contact with much warmer waters?) so we should be expecting a crash in ice extent/concentration under the position of the low?

 

With a pretty big HP then moving in our side of the Basin Barentsz and Kara look to have a couple of days of high melt before another LP takes up position over the pole?

 

I knew this year must be different from recent years (due to last summers melt and late winter fragmentation) and I cannot recall other seasons starting with LP's over the pole?

 

 

There is nothing unusual about having the low pressure over the N pole now, it's simply part of a moderately +ve AO. The last time we had a moderate-strong +ve AO for May was 2009.

 

The difference this time around, is that even this early in the melt season, a +ve AO seems to be able to easily diverge the ice pack, lowering concentration in the central Arctic and increasing it across the peripheral regions. The lowering won't be dramatic, yet, maybe just down to around 70 or 80% concentration in some spots.

 

As for the Ekman transport, I'm not sure how much of an effect it's really having as the low pressure ain't that strong and I doubt it would cause over a meters worth of melting in little over a week. I reckon most of the modelled thickness loss is more likely related to the diverging pack and replacement with new, thinner ice, lowering the average thickness.

 

I think that the lowering of concentration in the central Arctic and exposure to the strongest period of 24 hour solar input is something of a concern, though its impacts are unlikely to be properly felt until later in the summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

Yeah BFTV, The 'eckman pumping' gave me reason to head scratch esp. the 'scale' of the effect?

 

I was trying to highlight the pack fragility and that we may well see a pool of low concentration ice/open water before most coastal areas are clear of ice?

 

If you wanted to most efficiently melt out, via top melt, the pack then starting in the middle under the highest solar input and then working to the outer pack would be a novel but effective approach?

 

In 4 or 5 days we might well see a lot of open water where the pack has been ripped apart and if the next low camps in a similar position, and does a similar job, we will have a very 'darkened' central region over the solstice? We will also now start to see the high temps that we currently do across NW Europe and into Eurasia seeping into the basin.

 

If we still look to be holding onto the ice by June's end i will start to favour us ending higher than last summer (area) but I find it hard to believe that the next 3 weeks will see some very high melt rates?

 

Hopefully we'll have had lots of 'Recovery ' type posts from all the usual suspects by then ?

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gray-Wolf