Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Gray-Wolf]

How old was that footage?

 

Anyhows I believe that we are in the period that could spawn the first 'ice free' period? It will be another 'perfect storm' type synoptic that drives it (IMHO) but we are on the way to it being the 'normal' result at the end of melt season?

 

Maybe the next big Nino year? Maybe melt has 'changed' the way things now work up there and a combination of impacted AO and GAC12 type storms will prove enough?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC extent for May

 

[knocker]

Jeff Masters discusses Arctic meltdown and weather patterns.

 

http://www.weather.com/video/arctic-meltdown-36705

[stewfox]

Jeff Masters discusses Arctic meltdown and weather patterns.

 

http://www.weather.com/video/arctic-meltdown-36705

 

It will be interesting to see in future years how the jet streams response to increasing summer melt.

[Gray-Wolf]

I still believe many posters are clueless as to just what a big deal the Arctic meltdown is? If my feelings about last years mega melt impacting the 'stuck' weather patterns we have suffered since 07' (by shifting the 'stuck trough' back out into the Atlantic) then the return to a 'normal' summer (with no weekly flooding and lack of sun) will have folk even more disinterested even if we see another 'record loss year'?

 

Recent studies into past climate changes show us that the Arctic Amplification has some pretty nasty feedback's when run at 'normal' speeds. What will occur in our current 'global experiment', where we introduce GHG's into the atmosphere up to 100 times faster than Nature managed in the past, must give us all cause for concern surely?

 

We know we have a lot of carbon stored up there and that this must be released as climate warms so what if we see CH4 'burps' instead of a steady, slow release?

[stewfox]

I still believe many posters are clueless as to just what a big deal the Arctic meltdown is? If my feelings about last years mega melt impacting the 'stuck' weather patterns we have suffered since 07' (by shifting the 'stuck trough' back out into the Atlantic) then the return to a 'normal' summer (with no weekly flooding and lack of sun) will have folk even more disinterested even if we see another 'record loss year'?

 

 

Its new theories being put forward re 'stuck weather' patterns, jet stream going walk about etc. Linked to Artic melt.

 

I don't know why posters have to be 'clueless' because they ask questions ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Its new theories being put forward re 'stuck weather' patterns, jet stream going walk about etc. Linked to Artic melt.

 

I don't know why posters have to be 'clueless' because they ask questions ?

 

I doubt GW was saying people who ask questions are clueless, rather that people in general are clueless when it comes to realising what big an impact the rate of change in the Arctic is and will bring with.

This summer shall be interesting, especially as it's the first year that the PIOMAS error margin prediction touches on zero in September (based on Wipneus' graphs). Not that I think we will hit zero, but we could get close!

[pottyprof]

I doubt GW was saying people who ask questions are clueless, rather that people in general are clueless when it comes to realising what big an impact the rate of change in the Arctic is and will bring with.

Or how over-stated or under-stated it may be......

[Coast]

China eyes Arctic options in energy, transport

 

The decision to grant permanent observer status to China and five other nations by the Arctic Council meeting in Sweden Wednesday reflects the heightened interest by some of the world's most powerful economies in an area rich in oil, gas, minerals, fish and new transport possibilities.

 

For new observer nations China, Japan and South Korea, shorter shipping routes to Europe through Arctic waters could open up prospects of new energy supply options later this decade, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia's Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia. It could also lessen China's dependence on oil and gas shipped from the Middle East, which must pass through the Southeast Asian chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca. Allied to China's interest of getting oil and gas delivered from new pipelines across Myanmar and Central Asia, the potential of the Arctic trade routes loom large in China's strategic thinking.

 

Five years ago, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) described the vast Arctic continental shelf as potentially the "largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth." A new U.S. Arctic policy unveiled by the Obama administration last week cites that 2008 study, which estimated that about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered gas lies north of the Arctic Circle.

 

In a 2012 update, the USGS put the mean undiscovered estimate of recoverable oil in Russia's Arctic provinces alone at 28 billion barrels, plus about 27 trillion cubic meters of gas. China is keen to be more than just a customer for this Russian oil and gas. In February, the heads of China's three state-controlled oil and gas majors -- China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) -- met one of Russia's most influential players in the energy sector, Igor Sechin, chief executive of state-owned oil company Rosneft. The following month, Rosneft struck a deal with CNPC, giving it access to Arctic resources.

 

The Arctic Council, made up of the United States, Russia, Canada and the five Nordic nations -- Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland -- was set up in 1996 to coordinate policy in a resource-rich but environmentally sensitive part of the world. Before Wednesday's decision there were already six observer states: the UK, France, Germany, Poland, Spain and the Netherlands. Now the permanent observers are being joined by China, Japan, India, South Korea, Singapore and Italy, meaning that all of the key Asian economies now have a seat at the Arctic table, even though they will not have a vote on the Arctic Council. The European Union, the other major body seeking observer status, had its application affirmed but "deferred," a rebuff that is likely related to an unresolved dispute with Canada over the fur seal trade.

 

Both China and India already have polar research stations in the northern part of Norway, as do most of the other observer nations.The Arctic's importance has gained extra strategic and economic significance as melting ice in the polar region strengthens the feasibility of nations to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) across the top of Russia and the Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic archipelago. Canada claims the passage, which links the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, runs through its internal waterways. The U.S. and other countries contest this, maintaining it is an international strait.

 

For China, the main transportation focus is the NSR, which runs along the northern coastline of Siberia from Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait. It is open only for about five months of the year, from late June to November or early December, and requires icebreakers to cut a path through the Arctic ice for specially strengthened oil and gas carriers. But the route cuts as much as three weeks from shipping times between Europe and Asia. For example, Murmansk to China's Ningbo port near Shanghai is 13,000 km via the NSR, compared with 22,000 km via the Mediterranean Sea, Suez Canal, Indian Ocean and Strait of Malacca.

 

In August to September last year, China sent its one and only icebreaker Xue Long (Snow Dragon) on a successful two-way test run of the NSR. It plans to add a second icebreaker to its fleet in 2014-15. Over the past two sailing seasons, Russian oil and gas companies have tested the route for gas condensate and LNG shipments. In June 2011, Novatek, Russia's biggest non-state gas company, sent 60,000 tons of gas condensate from Murmansk to the Chinese port of Ningbo aboard the MV Perseverance on a three-week voyage. At the end of 2012, Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom sent a 66,000-tonne cargo of LNG from Statoil's Hammerfest terminal in Norway to the Japanese port of Tobata between November 7 and December 5. The route was cleared by three Russian icebreakers.

 

For now, the NSR is still very much in a test phase. According to the Centre for High North Logistics, an Arctic-focused information center based in Kirkenes, Norway, 46 vessels used the NSR in 2012, carrying about 1.26 million tons of cargo. That was an increase of more than 50% from 2011. China envisages exporting consumer goods aboard container ships to Europe and receiving LNG cargoes via the NSR. Novatek, for example, is building a new port at Sabetta on the Yamal peninsula to service the LNG trade to Asia, with expectations of first gas in 2016 and exports of 15 million tons a year by 2018.

 

The NSR's shortcomings are considerable: a short sailing season, the cost of hiring icebreakers, the operational hazards of extreme northern waters and the environmental risks of oil spills, collisions or sinkings. Even so, this Arctic shipping route is likely to be the focus of intense interest by China over the next decade

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/16/business/china-arctic/index.html

 

 

[carinthian]

Hi,

 I do not want the UK to leave the EEC, but in reality most Europeans will not give a toss whether they vote to do so.  Most Austrians have very little interest in politics outside their own domain. We have the extreme right wing Freedom party which is anti EEC and immigrant and has widespread support in Carinthia region of the country, but most realize the benefit of staying in the EEC zone. Beer, shrinking glaciers and ski-ing is most important topic to them and what goes on outside in the rest of the world holds little interest. I would go are far to say that most would not know the Olympic Games were held in the London last year.

C

[carinthian]

Hi,

 I do not want the UK to leave the EEC, but in reality most Europeans will not give a toss whether they vote to do so.  Most Austrians have very little interest in politics outside their own domain. We have the extreme right wing Freedom party which is anti EEC and immigrant and has widespread support in Carinthia region of the country, but most realize the benefit of staying in the EEC zone. Beer, shrinking glaciers and ski-ing is most important topic to them and what goes on outside in the rest of the world holds little interest. I would go are far to say that most would not know the Olympic Games were held in the London last year.

C

 

Sorry wrong topic !

[stewfox]

 

This summer shall be interesting, especially as it's the first year that the PIOMAS error margin prediction touches on zero in September (based on Wipneus' graphs). Not that I think we will hit zero, but we could get close!

 

Do you think we will get close to 0 in the next few years or have a residual 500,000 for a lengthy period where sea ice remains off Northern Greenland and  Islands of / around Northern Canada ?

Edited May 16, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Do you think we will get close to 0 in the next few years or have a residual 500,000 for a lengthy period where sea ice remains off Northern Greenland and  Islands of / around Northern Canada ?

 

Extent wise, I reckon it would take another ~10 years to go from first hitting sub 1 million to reaching sub 100,000km2.

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know BFTV? Once we get our first 'seasonal'folk are expecting the length of time below 1 million to expand quite rapidly back into July and earlier? If so then we have a lot of water under sun and so the 'remnants' will be exposed to this 'warm ocean' for up to 2 months?

 

I think our first 'seasonal' has to have the help of synoptics (whether random natural or 'altered' through ice loss) but then it becomes 'self fueling' with all the ice FY ice in year 1 (post melt out)

[gagerg]

Do you think we will get close to 0 in the next few years or have a residual 500,000 for a lengthy period where sea ice remains off Northern Greenland and  Islands of / around Northern Canada ?

It would depend on the state of the Arctic ice by the time we get into the actual melt season for if it is badly cracked, then the ice is likely to melt out rapidly this year. 

[knocker]

Difficult to know which thread to put this in.

 

Arctic economic potentiAl

 

 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/142968215/Arctic-Economic-Potential-by-Harri-Mikkola-and-Juha-Kapyla

[BornFromTheVoid]

I decided to have a look at the earliest dates that a week of over 700,000km2 of sea ice extent is lost (or a week with the daily average loss of >100k/day), to see if it gives any clues as to the minimum, and to see if there are any trends.

 

Here's what I got.

 

 

 

Neither 1980 or 1982 recorded a week where they lost more than 700,000km2, but every other year did. The majority occurred in the week ending on a day in the day 180s (last week of June/first week of July) with the average being day 180. The earliest was 1990 at the week ending on day 102 (April 12th) with the latest being 2004, on day 214 (August 1st).

 

There is a slight downward trend, but it's not significant.

 

What is significant is the correlation with the annual minimum extent, which ended up at 0.485 (p<0.01).

 

[knocker]

Sea Ice concentration

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC extent

 

[knocker]

Surface temp anomalies

 

 

[knocker]

Latest NSIDC extent

 

May23NSIDC.JPG

 

Any thoughts on this BFTV?  It seems a tad unexpected.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Any thoughts on this BFTV?  It seems a tad unexpected.

 

Not all that unexpected really. The AO has been +ve the last few weeks, helping to keep the cold locked up there. The forecast is for things to warm up substantially over the next few days, so I'd expect some large losses from around the middle of next week.

I think we'll finish the month well under 12.5million km2 anyway, close to 2009 and 2012, possibly below if the current output is to be believed.

 

[Methuselah]

Aye. I think that with so much of the ice being extremely thin (historically speaking) just now, extent is much more susceptible to seasonal weather-fluctuations than used to be the case...It's what gives the likes of Corbyn, Watts and others the dubious license to claim that Arctic sea-ice to be almost always in state of 'recovery'? 

[oldsnowywizard]

Not all that unexpected really. The AO has been +ve the last few weeks, helping to keep the cold locked up there. The forecast is for things to warm up substantially over the next few days, so I'd expect some large losses from around the middle of next week.

I think we'll finish the month well under 12.5million km2 anyway, close to 2009 and 2012, possibly below if the current output is to be believed.

 

arctic 2mtemp.png

 

 

Aye. I think that with so much of the ice being extremely thin (historically speaking) just now, extent is much more susceptible to seasonal weather-fluctuations than used to be the case...It's what gives the likes of Corbyn, Watts and others the dubious license to claim that Arctic sea-ice to be almost always in state of 'recovery'?

 

 

 

 

Substantially and extremely ? come on guys at least be a little less Extreme.... substantially is a power word and implies that temps will be 20 degrees higher than normal--- temps at this time of year of course get warmer.. it is near to the longest day in the year.... (although it doesnt feel it).. temps should be closing in to above 0 in the next few weeks which always happens... still a healthy amount of cold 850s.. albeit not an indication of how cold it is at the surface..

 

as GW mentions there is more to it than just temperature... which means regardless of the cold being locked up there... (despite it also being over much of Europe.. with snow in Germany, Switzerland and Italy) we should given the thin ice be seeing a much earlier reduction in sea ice extent... it takes less than half the time to melt 30 cms block of ice compared to 1 meter.. so in my humble opinion i am a little suprised to see things as they are right now... it therefore suggests that many other variables are also behaving... (despite 3 major solar storms last month.. does this impact ice???)

 

not a recovery, not a turn around but just making the best of what is a terrible situation!

[Methuselah]

Substantially and extremely ? come on guys at least be a little less Extreme.... substantially is a power word and implies that temps will be 20 degrees higher than normal--- temps at this time of year of course get warmer.. it is near to the longest day in the year.... (although it doesnt feel it).. temps should be closing in to above 0 in the next few weeks which always happens... still a healthy amount of cold 850s.. albeit not an indication of how cold it is at the surface..

 

as GW mentions there is more to it than just temperature... which means regardless of the cold being locked up there... (despite it also being over much of Europe.. with snow in Germany, Switzerland and Italy) we should given the thin ice be seeing a much earlier reduction in sea ice extent... it takes less than half the time to melt 30 cms block of ice compared to 1 meter.. so in my humble opinion i am a little suprised to see things as they are right now... it therefore suggests that many other variables are also behaving... (despite 3 major solar storms last month.. does this impact ice???)

 

not a recovery, not a turn around but just making the best of what is a terrible situation!

I don't think I was being that alarmist OSW? It's just that one-year-old ice must be more susceptible to weather (not necessarily climatic) fluctuations than the multi-year-ice of earlier times was??