Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surely 32k this year ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

NSIDC extent

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

[knocker]

Latest. NSIDC.

Edited May 3, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

So compared to last year we are just approaching the point where it's 'padding' of peripheral sea ice had gone? This year we have inflated ice levels over sea areas that had not carried that much ice in a long while so I'd expect that we still have some 'rapid losses' to show before we get into the business of melt season proper (Late May onward)?

 

I'm still wondering how the extensive fracturing will stand up to the rigors of 'melt season proper' as , by then, the frozen leads will be melted out and the 'friction' of floe on floe will be rounding off the ice floes? Come any wind/current forcing such 'rounded' floes will mover far easier and so 'faster'?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Down to just 5th lowest on record on CT now, with global ice level back below normal.

 

Will be interesting to see what the NSIDC update shows at 3pm.

 

 

Just looking at the tagged threads below this

 

2011: Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze) 319 replies, 22,424 views

2012: Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013) 905 replies, 49,034 views.

 

That's a pretty good growth rate! Who says the climate area ain't an inviting place? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC have gone the opposite direction with a small gain yesterday of 23k.

 

Here is the May extent graph

 

 

EDIT: NSIDC April review

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/05/april-on-average/

Edited May 3, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[stewfox]

NSIDC have gone the opposite direction with a small gain yesterday of 23k.

 

Here is the May extent graph

 

May2nd nsiDc.JPG

 

EDIT: NSIDC April review

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/05/april-on-average/

 

Glad to see we are above the 2000s average

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

However for comparison in 1980s we would be at todays figure at around 15th May ie 10 days time  

Edited May 5, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Glad to see we are above the 2000s average

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

However for comparison in 1980s we would be at todays figure at around 15th May ie 10 days time  

 

Not too bad extent wise at the moment. Weather across the Arctic ocean looks ok for the next 5 days or so, but after that, it looks like things may begin to warm up quite a bit on the Eurasian side.

[stewfox]

Not too bad extent wise at the moment. Weather across the Arctic ocean looks ok for the next 5 days or so, but after that, it looks like things may begin to warm up quite a bit on the Eurasian side.

 

177,000 drop in a day. If that 'ok' what's going to happen when it get bad

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

[songster]

177,000 drop in a day. If that 'ok' what's going to happen when it get bad

Looking at daily values is daft, there's enough inherent variability in the measurement process that you'll get sharp jumps and apparent slowdowns that have no real physical basis. Yes, the last individual day was a large drop - for the first half of the week things were practically stationary, and one day it even went up. Don't bother looking at anything finer-grain than weekly averages, it's just reading tea-leaves.

[stewfox]

Looking at daily values is daft, there's enough inherent variability in the measurement process that you'll get sharp jumps and apparent slowdowns that have no real physical basis. Yes, the last individual day was a large drop - for the first half of the week things were practically stationary, and one day it even went up. Don't bother looking at anything finer-grain than weekly averages, it's just reading tea-leaves.

[stewfox]

I was looking at one of the biggest weekly drops on record for the time of year. Also 177,000 sq kms takes a hell of a lot of tea leaves to cover.

Edited May 9, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree stew, we know the daily losses have revisions but sometimes they point to major events beginning? 

 

With so much 'Faux periphery' ice (LOL) to lose (Barentsz,Greenland,Bering) we should expect some high early losses as the pack naturally contracts in to it's summer core?

 

Sadly ,this year, we have so much thin ice across central regions that we might just see an open pole this summer?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the NSIDC data, the loss rate over the last 7 days has averaged 24.4k/day, compared to the long term average of 43.1k/day (total loss of 170k compared to 300k). That's well below average, despite the large drop recorded on the 8th.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2013130103500-2013130104000.250m.jpg

 

I know it's peering through the clouds but do you think that the state of the pack Through Barentsz/Greenland might make extents look high where area is starting to fall BFTV?

 

A lot of ice impacted by the early fracture event went through a number of fractures meaning small rounded floes early in the season (with a lot of water around.....just not enough to see the sq as water quite yet!)

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2013130103500-2013130104000.250m.jpg

 

I know it's peering through the clouds but do you think that the state of the pack Through Barentsz/Greenland might make extents look high where area is starting to fall BFTV?

 

A lot of ice impacted by the early fracture event went through a number of fractures meaning small rounded floes early in the season (with a lot of water around.....just not enough to see the sq as water quite yet!)

 

Perhaps not the best argument, seeing as the area has had a 120k increase over the last 2 days!

 

While the ice in the Barents/Kara area is giving a slight boost, on a purely visual basis, I'd say the majority of the ice in the general Arctic ocean is looking a lot less fragmented this year compared to last year.

The main caveat being that there may be a lot of thin ice only a month or two old that could melt out rather soon and suddenly, and may not be providing much of an effective barrier between the water and air at the moment.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it better to go with what you know it to be than what it 'looks like' BFTV? We know most of the older ice had a good melt last year also so the base of the 'older stuff' is also not that old!

 

Oddly some of the buoy data shows rather skimpy bottom growth to this ice (60cm?) so a thin cover might be the best way to stop thicker ice forming?

 

As for the 'increase' doesn't this bolster my point that this is a mobile 'spreading pack' and that eventually it will tip the 15% min cover and suddenly be gone? We had seen Barentsz plummet on C.T. (as the edges drifted off to melt?) so this 'rebound is effectively thinning the pack behind as ice drifts into the open water left by the ice lost?

[BornFromTheVoid]

We can't pick and choose when we use visual cues and when we use the data now!

 

I agree that things are looking quite mobile and the ice ain't in great health, but there's little point on focusing on daily gains and losses at this time of year. Recent years haven't kicked off their high loss rates until June, so I wouldn't expect anything dramatic until the last 10 days of this month at the earliest, but most likely into June.

[Gray-Wolf]

EDIT: Waffle....

Edited May 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[ANYWEATHER]

Well, the Northwest passage looks like it will retain its ice....

[stewfox]

Going by the NSIDC data, the loss rate over the last 7 days has averaged 24.4k/day, compared to the long term average of 43.1k/day (total loss of 170k compared to 300k). That's well below average, despite the large drop recorded on the 8th.

 

I was looking at the little red line and the loss of over 300k in the last week

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

Well Anyweather, we'll see who's right as I predict an early melt out again for the NW Passage Deep Channel (And a rapid melt out for the northern sea route).

 

We'll know by the start of Aug who of us has a better understanding of the the modern Arctic's workings when it comes to F.Y. ice melt inside a newly ice free land area (have you seen the year on year 'heat' records around the Archipelago since 07'?)?

 

As an aside why do you think this years thinner ice will survive longer than last years 'thicker' ice, which took an 'average/cool' arctic summer to melt it out by early Aug?

 

We are all here to learn and i'm sure the Lurkers and I would love to see inside the workings of your prediction?

[ANYWEATHER]

GW .is this a contest??!!Anyway, I was just pointing out a week ahead??!! To be honest I was not making a prediction, but of course you are[and very brave to do so!]!As regards your question have no answer [yet] but Im looking forward to some research on my part!

Edited May 10, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[keithlucky]

I be a very rich man if i had a pound for everytime i heard this hot air

[BornFromTheVoid]

What's the hot air Keith?

[Polar Maritime]

He could mean from the backside... More Co2 ?