Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[cheeky_monkey]

Well ,the season is under way and we are still tracking below last years levels. with less ice and a record amount of FY ice are we set to drop straight into record territory or do you expect some type of 'rebound' and ,if so ,Why?

Judging by the ice thickness which is way more important than ice extent..i expect things to melt rapidly through June, July and Aug...record territory again.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd have to agree C.M.!

 

I'm also wondering if last years melt will impact, further, N.hemisphere circulation and provide a novel melt year on top of it's physical weakness? I cannot remove 'novel' behaviour from the carackopalypse event and wonder if we should expect a H.P. dominated summer over large areas of the basin?

[barrel1234]

The glimmer of light is that in recent months we havnt seen a massive export of multi- year thick ice out of fram. Instead winds have generally pushed it in a clockwise direction around the basin.   I have been keeping an eye on speed and direction of drift around fram this year and loss of thicker ice here it doesn't look as bad as previous years to me...... so far.

[keithlucky]

Well ,the season is under way and we are still tracking below last years levels. with less ice and a record amount of FY ice are we set to drop straight into record territory or do you expect some type of 'rebound' and ,if so ,Why?

More Arctic sea ice than 1990 http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=12&fy=1990&sm=04&sd=12&sy=2013

April 12 1990 :  13.05 million km²

April 12 2013 : 13.16 million km²

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[ANYWEATHER]

More Arctic sea ice than 1990 http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=12&fy=1990&sm=04&sd=12&sy=2013

April 12 1990 :  13.05 million km²

April 12 2013 : 13.16 million km²

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Of Course they fiddle data and measuring sea ice has changed over those years,,,

[ANYWEATHER]

Well ,the season is under way and we are still tracking below last years levels. with less ice and a record amount of FY ice are we set to drop straight into record territory or do you expect some type of 'rebound' and ,if so ,Why?

Really find your posts interesting!, but if you really want to find what the Artic is like Please go there and report back to us!!

[songster]

Quite a steep drop on the JAXA Ice Extent.

Stop reading tealeaves. If I could have one wish granted this season it would be for people to only talk about melt rates if they're averaged over at least 5 days, preferably a week or so. Yes, today was a sharp drop on IJIS. A few days before that was a sharp rise, and a few days before that, a drop...

[Edit: just checked the date of gagerg's post - after the first downward blip, which bounced up again two days later. I rest my case.]

Right now we can say nothing at all about the melt rate except that since mid-late Feb we have been bobbling along more or less dead on the "2000's average" line, plus or minus noise. Nothing much interesting happens with Arctic ice extent until the start of June, because everything before that is happening in seasonal seas. Look how the lines cluster in late May.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

Edited April 16, 2013 by songster

[Gray-Wolf]

OK Songster should we see any novel behaviours prior to your 'start date' I take it you'll concede something 'odd' is happening?

 

Seeing a vast swathes of the pack were badly impacted by Crackopalypse I would expect a very different 'start ' to the season with some fairly rapid drop offs before May is out? The drift ice over Barrentsz is one area I suggest you keep your peepers on esp. once temps inland start to go crazy?

 

Then we have the circulation of the basin. Over the past months this had drifted ice into Svalbard/Greenland sea/Barrentsz/Kara, all areas that melt out quite readily these days, should this persist i suggest ice may not make it to Fram before being destroyed this summer? The Gyre/Trans polar will just feed it into the kill zones.

 

Anyhow we shall see who is correct in their reading of things eh?

 

Time tells all.....

 

Keith L, how come JAXA show us crashing through 2000's average levels today if we are higher than the 1990's?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

Was sea ice lower in the 1990's , pre 07' crash, than they were in the noughties???? Just have a bit of a think about it eh?

Edited April 17, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

OK Songster should we see any novel behaviours prior to your 'start date' I take it you'll concede something 'odd' is happening?

Yeah, if we get below 11 million before the last week of May I'll concede the omens are on for a new record (edit: context for that is that it would be 1.5 weeks ahead of the record to date, set in 2006). Below 10.5 million and we might be looking at a complete melt out. Otherwise, my general prediction is for a reversion to the mean downward trend and an extent somewhere between 2007 and 2012 - which is still catastrophic in the wider scheme of things. Overall, I'm expecting a series of whimpers rather than a bang over the next couple of decades. Edited April 17, 2013 by songster

[Gray-Wolf]

Can we do this on volume Songster? The fragmented nature of the pack means that the difference between Extent and area will become really stretched this early season? normally the central mass of ice is still pretty consolidated up until July but this year it is a mass of platelets cemented by 30cm of 1 or 2 month old ice. This ice will either melt or break as gaps open up at the edges.

 

If you look at Mays Volume for last year then decide on a cut off point? (06' won't do as we're obviously well below that already!!!)

 

EDIT:

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif

 

Anyone else noticed how synoptics have conspired to drift all our thicker ice into the Beaufort area where 3m of ice (and more) has melted out totally over the past few years? With very thin ice over the Pole I'd not be surprised if we lose the Pole-cam again this July?

 

At the moment the only ice looking safe is plastered along the north shore of Greenland (which saw massive melt last Aug?) and the Canadian Archipelago.

 

As a side note 3m of Archipelago ice was melted before Aug lasy year, all of it static melt. how much ice above 3m do we see in the graphic above? When the warm land and warmed water get going we saw how fast 3m of ice could melt in the Greenland N.Coast through Aug so what of the remnant pack come this Aug? Then check out sst's and see the Gulf stream anom already rounding Greenland and bound north. If I am correct about the extension of the Gulf stream into the basin over summer as the ice free water warms and so 'chills' the gulf stream less, then the 'Laptev Bite' might be along that N.Greenland coast this year (The 'Greenland bite'???)

Edited April 17, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

Can we do this on volume Songster?

No, because we have no observations to use to check it, until Cryosat reports some months later. PIOMAS is a good model, but it is not data. If you want to to pontificate and prognosticate on what PIOMAS may or may not be modelling in mid-May, I'm happy to guess that it will be a new record low. What degree of low, I have no idea. I will note however that PIOMAS seems to disagree with you about the impact of Crackopalypse, since that was the point at which this year's modelled volume took a sharp upward turn relative to the last few years. Edited April 17, 2013 by songster

[Gray-Wolf]

So all those open leads freezing over were not supposed to show impact? Some of the major leads were km across and hundreds of km long, even at 30cm thickness that's a lot of 'new' ice?

 

I cannot see the problem with using Piomass data? Were it to be significantly below the same time last year surely that would point to an acceleration in ice loss?

[songster]

So all those open leads freezing over were not supposed to show impact? Some of the major leads were km across and hundreds of km long, even at 30cm thickness that's a lot of 'new' ice?

Well yes, the question is then whether Crackopalypse will accelerate the melt (because the ice is thinner in the refrozen leads) or retard it (because the leads allowed more ice to form, so there is more ice there to melt). As I said on the other thread, when the cracking happened, the ice that was in the Arctic before the event didn't just go away. It's all still there, presumably as thickened ridges elsewhere in the basin. We are currently at almost exactly the same (measured) area and (modelled) volume as last year, so the average thickness must be the same, it's just distributed differently. The ice in the refrozen leads is thinner, the ice between them must therefore be thicker if you believe the PIOMAS model.You could perhaps argue that a less homogeneous ice thickness is more prone to melting out, because the thin bits will melt out faster and expose open water, leading to albedo flip. However you don't get to pick and choose where and how to apply that argument - that's cheating. All across the Russian side of the Arctic, the ice thickness is more homogeneous this year than last (because of improved thickness in Kara / Laptev), while along the Canadian coast it is less homogeneous this yeat than last (because of Crackopalypse).

I cannot see the problem with using Piomass data? Were it to be significantly below the same time last year surely that would point to an acceleration in ice loss?

PIOMAS is not data, it is a (good) model. If, as is very likely, it is significantly lower than last year, it does not mean that there genuinely is less volume, it means that the model predicts that there is less volume. This is an important distinction.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/monthlyhighlights/2013/04/glimpses-of-sea-ice-past/

 

Seems we can push the 'satelite era' back quite a way now giving us near 50yrs of observations of the 'historical extent' of ice (and compare it to the other data sources previously used to show Basin wide extent)?

 

Maybe it will help some folk to see how useful the old system is for showing us ice extents through the 20th century and highlighting the horrible turn of events since 07'?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Finally done with assignments, so I have a bit more time to post graphs and stuff again. Here's the NSIDC extent data for April so far

 

 

[stewfox]

Finally done with assignments, so I have a bit more time to post graphs and stuff again. Here's the NSIDC extent data for April so far

 

 

NSIDC April18.JPG

 

109,000 increase an early refreeze ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcam1.html

 

 

Yay!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Considering the 'better ice' is supposed to be off Russia this year I'm not liking the speed of Fragmentation we are seeing there recently?

 

It is as though we are seeing a very differnt behavioue ,early season, to the pack?

 

I believe i've been seeing it 'evolve' since the middle of the noughties when I first took an interest in the 'spring full moon' fragmentation events. it was one of my first meets with 4 when he pulled up previous years (from modis) to show how 'common' an event it was.

 

I argued, back then, that the size and scale of the event was bigger (and floes broken ever smaller) than in the years previous but this year has proved even more exceptoinal with the event stretching over 3 full moons (and a few storms/ strong pressure gradients) and mangling near all of the pack.

 

The early nature of the disruption this year has meant (to me at least) a great weakening of the pack. I'm concerned that we will see a very early 'bulk melt' of the ice this year bringing July and august could prove very interesting.

 

Events around the periphery of the basin will 'lead the way' so the Russian 'Crackopalypse' is of interest.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like surface temps are now reaching melting temps across areas of the basin?

 

I have to wonder how rapid the early phase of the season will be with the ice in such poor condition and with the geographic pole FY ice this time around?

[Methuselah]

If anyone's unsure of the amount of heat involved in phase changes, this link might help: 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enthalpy_of_fusion

Edited April 24, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[knocker]

Sunlit Snow Triggers Atmospheric Cleaning, Ozone Depletion in the Arctic

 

National Science Foundation-funded researchers at Purdue University have discovered that sunlit snow is the major source of atmospheric bromine in the Arctic, the key to unique chemical reactions that purge pollutants and destroy ozone.

 

The new research also indicates that the surface snowpack above Arctic sea ice plays a previously unappreciated role in the bromine cycle and that loss of sea ice, which been occurring at an increasingly rapid pace in recent years, could have extremely disruptive effects in the balance of atmospheric chemistry in high latitudes.

The team's findings suggest the rapidly changing Arctic climate--where surface temperatures are rising three times faster than the global average--could dramatically change its atmospheric chemistry, said Paul Shepson, an NSF-funded researcher who led the research team. The experiments were conducted by Kerri Pratt, a postdoctoral researcher funded by the Division of Polar Programs in NSF's Geosciences Directorate.

 

"We are racing to understand exactly what happens in the Arctic and how it affects the planet because it is a delicate balance when it comes to an atmosphere that is hospitable to human life," said Shepson, who also is a founding member of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. "The composition of the atmosphere determines air temperatures, weather patterns and is responsible for chemical reactions that clean the air of pollutants."

 

 

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=127688

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Siberia looks to be heating up rather quickly, and especially as we cool down this week, our Northerlies are a result of warm Southerlies streaming across Siberia. Ice will be melting rapidly over there if it carries on like this and will only allow the landmass to heat up alot faster too. 

This year could be as bad as 2012 in my opinion for the loss of ice.

[Gray-Wolf]

Siberia looks to be heating up rather quickly, and especially as we cool down this week, our Northerlies are a result of warm Southerlies streaming across Siberia. Ice will be melting rapidly over there if it carries on like this and will only allow the landmass to heat up alot faster too. 

This year could be as bad as 2012 in my opinion for the loss of ice.

This is kind of how I see the summer progressing with stubborn inner continental highs profiting from a failing polar Jet allowing high temp/low humidity conditions across major landmasses.

The WAA into the Arctic will hasten melt and allow home grown 'Arctic' high temps to evolve (another 'record breaking' year there). The fly in the ointment will be a cool(ish') spring/early summer for the folk recieving air from the Arctic on the left flanks of the HP but , as Arctic temps rise, this should fade as such areas will be inside the H.P. and grown there own heat?

 

The potential , from July onward, for high temp humidity contrast from remnant ice areas to warming 'ice free areas' (with WAA modification) could also promote the formation of strong polar lows (like GAC12) and it is this element (should it arise) that could lead to an ice free ocean late in Aug?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC Extent

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is kind of how I see the summer progressing with stubborn inner continental highs profiting from a failing polar Jet allowing high temp/low humidity conditions across major landmasses.

The WAA into the Arctic will hasten melt and allow home grown 'Arctic' high temps to evolve (another 'record breaking' year there). The fly in the ointment will be a cool(ish') spring/early summer for the folk recieving air from the Arctic on the left flanks of the HP but , as Arctic temps rise, this should fade as such areas will be inside the H.P. and grown there own heat?

 

The potential , from July onward, for high temp humidity contrast from remnant ice areas to warming 'ice free areas' (with WAA modification) could also promote the formation of strong polar lows (like GAC12) and it is this element (should it arise) that could lead to an ice free ocean late in Aug?

Will be interesting to see how it pans out. I do fear that very soon we will see just pure open water near enough up there. Its only a matter of time.