Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Methuselah]

Is Arctic sea ice shrinking or expanding?

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/09/13/is-arctic-sea-ice-shrinking-or-expanding/

So, as we thought, the standard winter-freeze doesn't count as a 'recovery'? In any case, there are no signs - anywhere - of any imminent recovery...

 

In the case of Arctic sea-ice at least, there can be no doubt whatsoever that vested-interests are setting out to misinform.

[Geordiesnow]

Anyone care to enlighten me as to the impacts , over re-freeze, of extra ice cover? When we have record losses we get folk telling us how this will aid 're-freeze' so does the opposite now apply with surplus ice? Will it limit heat loss into the atmosphere? Will the cover of ice limit any basal growth via insulation? Are we facing a very low figure for ice growth this winter compared to the years that had a lot more open water to freeze over?

 

You would think in theory, more ice at the minimum tends to lead to more ice in the Autumn months, although weather patterns will dictate the "shape" of the growth. Unless there is some regional warmth on the ice that is not in the basin then I expect winter extent to be similar to recent years. 

 

I think we need to keep a close eye on the Barents Sea this Autumn, its very low extent and SST looks high, this area could impact on extent during the Autumn months. 

[stewfox]

Anyone care to enlighten me as to the impacts , over re-freeze, of extra ice cover? When we have record losses we get folk telling us how this will aid 're-freeze' so does the opposite now apply with surplus ice? Will it limit heat loss into the atmosphere? Will the cover of ice limit any basal growth via insulation? Are we facing a very low figure for ice growth this winter compared to the years that had a lot more open water to freeze over?

 

We can hardly be facing a very low figure for ice growth this winter season as our starting point is still very low. Maybe come March 2014 papers will be saying near record ice growth this winter (which is of course mis leading)

 

.http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/record-arctic-ice-growth-in-2012-2013/

 

In terms of the sea ice insulating the underlying ocean much of the figures are of course only 15% or 30% sea ice per given area and probably have a 3/4 week effect

 

The impact of more open water is probably reflected in this temperature profile (more open water more 'heat')

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

cf this year less open water less 'heat'. I appreciate there are other factors

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

 

A 1993 high artic winter would be good. You just don't see any prolonged below average temps day 1-150 in the high artic anymore.

 

cf -16c,,, day 10 ...2013,,,, cf   -42c....  day 10....  1993

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Edited September 13, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

Arctic Death Spiral CryoSat Reveals decline in Arctic Sea Ice Volume Continues.

 

Arctic sea ice volume collapsed from 1979 to 2012, several decades ahead of what the climate models had predicted.

 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/11/2603711/arctic-death-spiral/

[stewfox]

Arctic Death Spiral CryoSat Reveals decline in Arctic Sea Ice Volume Continues.

 

Arctic sea ice volume collapsed from 1979 to 2012, several decades ahead of what the climate models had predicted.

 

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/11/2603711/arctic-death-spiral/

 

Thank god for 2013  August ice volume was about 1400 km³  larger than in August of 2012

 

""""While ice volume at the maximum during April was on par with the previous two years, reduction in ice volume during the summer month was less than in previous years. August ice volume showed the first increase since 2008 but is still below the long-term trend line""".

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Edited September 14, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

Linking of low Arctic ice to rapid snow line advance in Autumn and cold winters....

 

The 'Warm Arctic , Cold continents' linking.

 

The fact that 'warming' over the rest of the year continues seems to mean a new 'trend' for the northern hemisphere may be in the offing as the planet warms further?

 

I remember asking about the impacts of open water Arctic back in the mid 90's esp. the impacts of convection over areas where we did not used to see it and increased R.H. of the air over the basin. Though far faster than we thought it would be we are beginning to see the impacts.

[stewfox]

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

Linking of low Arctic ice to rapid snow line advance in Autumn and cold winters....

 

.

 

What are they going to call it ? We have 'lake effect snow' , 'summer melt artic effect snow' ??. Good article

 

Another small increase yesterday of some 6k (15% ice cover)

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

Is 12th Sept going to be the min this year ? We should know by the end of the week.

Edited September 15, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

The price of ice: How thawing liquid might become the Arctic's most precious asset

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130914/price-ice-how-thawing-liquid-might-become-arctics-most-precious-asset

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC extent is still less than 30k off the lowest recorded daily value, so not quite time to call the minimum there yet.

IJIS is about 15k off the lowest daily value, so still too early to call the minimum.

CT is currently over 130k above its lowest daily value, so that's most likely reached its minimum for the year.

MASIE set the lowest value so far on the 16th, so still time for that to go lower still.

 

 

[masheeuk]

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

 

Linking of low Arctic ice to rapid snow line advance in Autumn and cold winters....

 

The 'Warm Arctic , Cold continents' linking.

 

The fact that 'warming' over the rest of the year continues seems to mean a new 'trend' for the northern hemisphere may be in the offing as the planet warms further?

 

I remember asking about the impacts of open water Arctic back in the mid 90's esp. the impacts of convection over areas where we did not used to see it and increased R.H. of the air over the basin. Though far faster than we thought it would be we are beginning to see the impacts.

 is this a science paper or a periodical especially as it says magazine on the front cover

Edited September 17, 2013 by masheeuk

[Geordiesnow]

Although the melt season is all but over for most of the Arctic, I got to say, it does not look like its going to be over for the Atlantic side of the Arctic just yet... how close will that ice edge get to the North Pole with the current synoptic pattern being forecast of yet another strong mild southerly flow and the charts do show the ice being quite thin in that area. Not only could ice on the Atlantic side being lowest on record for September, the ice extent in the Greenland sea could be the lowest on record!

 

Conversely ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic could continue to be quite a bit higher than recent years with all the cold being bottled up around there so could be quite a rapid freeze up on the Pacific side as we head into October. 

 

Will the north pole be ice free? I still say its unlikely but I really would not rule it out at all with the current synoptics showing. 

[oldsnowywizard]

I think you may be looking at the 850 temps ... The temps even with the southerly draw are still likely to hover around 0 to plus 3 and only for a few days befor everything settles back down . it also depends if there is precip at the same time so i would suggest any ice loss due to the temperature at this time of year in this area to be be less of a problem than the still warm SSTs . However we wait to see what will happen. The cold is really setting in now and as you say some nice -10 2m temps quite widespread on the pacific side. Looks like the minimum could have been earlier this year

[keithlucky]

More western Arctic sea ice than 1981 http://www.gophoto.it/view.php?i=http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHACTWA/20130916180000_CVCHACTWA_0007271338.gif

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

 

Arctic sea ice highest since 2006                                                       The melt season is over?  http://www.gophoto.it/view.php?i=http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

 

Edited September 19, 2013 by keithlucky

[Geordiesnow]

I think you may be looking at the 850 temps ... The temps even with the southerly draw are still likely to hover around 0 to plus 3 and only for a few days befor everything settles back down . it also depends if there is precip at the same time so i would suggest any ice loss due to the temperature at this time of year in this area to be be less of a problem than the still warm SSTs . However we wait to see what will happen. The cold is really setting in now and as you say some nice -10 2m temps quite widespread on the pacific side. Looks like the minimum could have been earlier this year

 

I'm thinking more on the lines of wind strength although the temperature do look remarkably high though, either way, I expect the retreat of ice on the Atlantic side to continue so that ice edge getting ever so closer to the North Pole. 

 

It does look like we may get a slight pattern change but there no real proper convincing sign that we will get much in the way of significant colder air heading into Barents Sea anytime soon either. I do feel if we do get some colder air heading this way, then ice extent could be quite high during October in particular with how cold things have been inside most of the basin but I guess its a wait and see process. 

[stewfox]

I'm thinking more on the lines of wind strength although the temperature do look remarkably high though, either way, I expect the retreat of ice on the Atlantic side to continue so that ice edge getting ever so closer to the North Pole. 

 

It does look like we may get a slight pattern change but there no real proper convincing sign that we will get much in the way of significant colder air heading into Barents Sea anytime soon either. I do feel if we do get some colder air heading this way, then ice extent could be quite high during October in particular with how cold things have been inside most of the basin but I guess its a wait and see process. 

 

In need as can be seen here

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

[Nights King]

Time for the re-freeze thread?

 

Some nice growth over last day or so.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Time for the re-freeze thread?

 

Some nice growth over last day or so.

 

While you're probably right, I'd say we'd want to give it another few days, just to be sure. All but the area are still quite close to the minimum values, IJIS being about 61k off and NSIDC just 13k off, while MASIE continues to set new lows.

[Harve]

Do we have a higher minimum extent, assuming we've reached the minimum, than any of 2008, 2009 and 2010 according to IJIS? Google almost has too much information...

[keithlucky]

Comment from NSIDC Arctic ice gain-loss this summer  As a whole, air temperatures this summer have been below average over most of the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland, helping to slow down ice melting. Compared to the 1981 to 2010 average, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level have been -0.5 to -2.0 degrees Celsius (-0.9 to -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) below average over central Greenland, north of Greenland and towards the pole, and over the Canadian Archipelago. Unusually low temperatures are also noted over the East Siberian Sea, where ice cover has remained near average throughout the summer.

NSIIDC

[BornFromTheVoid]

Do we have a higher minimum extent, assuming we've reached the minimum, than any of 2008, 2009 and 2010 according to IJIS? Google almost has too much information...

 

From those years, just lower than 2009, higher than the other two for IJIS.

 

Based on the NSIDC extent data, we're higher than all minima after 2007.

 

With Cryosphere Today area, we're higher than all after 2007 also. 

[stewfox]

From those years, just lower than 2009, higher than the other two for IJIS.

 

Based on the NSIDC extent data, we're higher than all minima after 2007.

 

With Cryosphere Today area, we're higher than all after 2007 also. 

 

In need a few more days although IJIS shows a 64k rise today

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

ps Is that low ice concentration near the Pole ? (see attached)

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

[BornFromTheVoid]

In need a few more days although IJIS shows a 64k rise today

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

ps Is that low ice concentration near the Pole ? (see attached)

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

 

 I don't think any other years have lost over 100k in the last 10 days of September, so we can probably call the IJIS minimum now, so 4,809,288km2 on the 12th.

 

The ice free areas got very close to the north pole this year. I think the thickness chart shows it well also

[mountain shadow]

When does permanent winter darkness hit the North Pole?, is it at the Equinox?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The MASIE extent data didn't update for Wednesday (so missing a day) but has updated Thursday, showing an impressive 301k jump from Tuesday to Thursday

Here's a graph of the September NH MASIE extent, with Wednesdays data interpolated.

 

 

I think that's another minimum we can safely call!

 

[keithlucky]

Green shows the ice growth in the last week.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e