Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Cheshire Freeze]

BFTV I don't know what you cannot understand? Any thoughts, predictions etc etc over what may happen in 10-30 years time is an assumption- it's being assumed that events will take a certain path. You can't take however many years of historical empirical data and state what will happen with certainty years down the line. That is why it is an assumption?

 

An analogy...imagine a 15 year old who may have aced their tests at school and come out with top grade GCSEs. The natural prediction would be to pass all their A levels with flying colours. That is an assumption- despite all the evidence that suggests they'd do well at A-level. However, in the mean time other variables may come into play- a loss in the family, illness etc etc. This may see a failure at A-level and would mean the previous assumptions were wrong.....even though they were based on sound empirical evidence. 

 

As far as climate goes, it might be best to keep an open mind, that's all I'm saying.

Edited August 25, 2013 by CreweCold

[Tamara]

Not really disagreeing with what you say,T...just butting in before anyone takes things the wrong way... 

 

In the mean time, have you any idea why this summers been the way it has, apart from the pressure profile? I haven't!

 

As a bit of an aside, however, I'm interested in whether the Arctic's open water will increase October snowfall, adjacent to the Arctic Ocean, this time...Any thoughts on that? 

A few basic ideas, but they are MOD/tech thread related rather than this section

Edited August 25, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Methuselah]

BFTV I don't know what you cannot understand? Any thoughts, predictions etc etc over what may happen in 10-30 years time is an assumption- it's being assumed that events will take a certain path. You can't take however many years of historical empirical data and state what will happen with certainty years down the line. That is why it is an assumption?

But there are assumptions and there are assumptions...if one is an extrapolation of what is currently happening, then surely that is more likely to happen than a possible event that is plucked out of thin air, without a shred of anything (barring conjecture) to 'support' it? IMO, it's rather like me suggesting that the mother of all ice-ages is imminent because the sun is going to stop shining, in 2056?

 

From a philosophical, nay metaphysical, standpoint - no one can be certain that the sun will even rise tomorrow...But, is assuming that it will in any way wrong?

A few basic ideas, but they are MOD/tech thread related rather than this section

Okey dokey!

[Cheshire Freeze]

But there are assumptions and there are assumptions...if one is an extrapolation of what is currently happening, then surely that is more likely to happen than a possible event that is plucked out of thin air, without a shred of anything (barring conjecture) to 'support' it? IMO, it's rather like me suggesting that the mother of all ice-ages is imminent because the sun is going to stop shining, in 2056?

 

From a philosophical, nay metaphysical, standpoint - no one can be certain that the sun will even rise tomorrow...But, is assuming that it will in any way wrong?

Okey dokey!

 

But most of it is conjecture because we have little idea on how the whole system is going to react to the obvious stressor which is being placed upon it. 50-100 years of data is not enough to know. For example, we have little idea on how it is going to affect climate other than the consensus 'oh it's going to warm'. If we have little understanding on how the climate is affected on a micro scale then we have no chance of understanding how various circulations and drivers may evolve to produce a different outcome than is currently projected. I appreciate that BFTV has intimated that we have a decent handle on various variables and feedback mechanisms but could it be the case that we think we do rather than we actually do?

 

I'm 'pro' or 'anti' anything where this subject is concerned. Personally I can see both sides and sometimes it's wise to just sit on the fence and see how it all plays out in the long run.

Edited August 25, 2013 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

But most of it is conjecture because we have little idea on how the whole system is going to react to the obvious stressor which is being placed upon it. 50-100 years of data is not enough to know. For example, we have little idea on how it is going to affect climate other than the consensus 'oh it's going to warm'. If we have little understanding on how the climate is affected on a micro scale then we have no chance of understanding how various circulations and drivers may evolve to produce a different outcome than is currently projected. I appreciate that BFTV has intimated that we have a decent handle on various variables and feedback mechanisms but could it be the case that we think we do rather than we actually do?

Then  you and I must keep an open mind?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Then  you and I must keep an open mind?

 

Exactamente. This is exactly my point.

[stewfox]

 

 

I'm 'pro' or 'anti' anything where this subject is concerned. Personally I can see both sides and sometimes it's wise to just sit on the fence and see how it all plays out in the long run.

 

The problem is you have subjectivity and objectivity and this is often clouded.

 

There are perhaps 10 major variables for artic ice cover and changes are happening well within a human life time, fascinating stuff.

 

Sitting on the fence is fine but mankind got nowhere but sitting on the fence, someone tested poison ivy , saw their hand burn if they put it in the fire etc.

[barrel1234]

There is always much talk about positive feedbacks in the arctic.   As Aboynamedsue touched upon, higer than average sst in the arctic combined with the v cold air of the winter due to start pushing in within the next few months could hugely increase precipitation over the whole arctic region compared to average snowfall.

 

  Surely this potentially could act as a big negative feedback?

 

 

  Also what are the melt rates/ tolerability of highly compacted snow/freshwater ice compared to frozen sea water during a melt season?

[Devonian]

A clue to what?One obvious factor behind the better summer season in the arctic is the +AO pressure profile which has prevented warmer air from mid latitudes encroaching the region and has bottled up colder air instead.

A clue, perhaps, to places frequented then and places not. Perhaps, because ice prevented access. Edited August 25, 2013 by Devonian

[knocker]

On August 8, the Chinese cargo ship Yong Sheng set sail from Dalian, a port city in northeastern China. The Hong Kong-flagged vessel, owned by Chinese state-owned company Cosco Group, is bound for Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, with its cargo of steel and heavy equipment. But unlike most ships from Asia headed for Europe, Yong Sheng is tacking north, through the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

 

The Financial Times reports that Yong Sheng is scheduled to reach its destination in only 35 days, on September 11. This would cut off 13 days from the traditional maritime voyage through the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal. The NSR promises reductions in journey time of up to 40 percent for vessels leaving from north of Hong Kong compared to the so-called Royal Route. Yong Sheng is currently in the Sea of Japan and most recently docked in Busan, South Korea, showing how other ports in northeast Asia also stand to benefit from increased shipping along the NSR.

 

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130822/chinese-cargo-vessel-takes-arctics-burgeoning-northern-sea-route

[stewfox]

There is always much talk about positive feedbacks in the arctic.   As Aboynamedsue touched upon, higer than average sst in the arctic combined with the v cold air of the winter due to start pushing in within the next few months could hugely increase precipitation over the whole arctic region compared to average snowfall.

 

  Surely this potentially could act as a big negative feedback?

 

 

  Also what are the melt rates/ tolerability of highly compacted snow/freshwater ice compared to frozen sea water during a melt season?

 

Interesting point, the attached although fairly old now give a general detailed explanation that runs to many pages

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~sgw/PAPERS/1999_Arctic_snow.pdf

 

Two points stand out for me

----------------------------------------

The insulating effect of snow reduces

the rate at which seawater freezes to the bottom of the

ice, whereas the high albedo of snow reduces the rate

of ice melting at the top in summer; the resulting dependence

of ice thickness and salinity profiles on the

snow thickness is therefore complex

---------------------------------------

We have not identified a cause for the decreasing trend

of snowfall. Passive microwave observations of the Arctic

Ocean over the period 1979–96

----------------------------------

 

Perhaps significant above average snow fall across the artic this winter could offset the reduction in sea ice freezing ??

 

Most of the snow would have melted by July but if some was around you would assume it would effect the albedo in July

 

Note the spike in 1996 (more snow in the winter ??)

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/fig_tab/nclimate1963_F2.html

 

Edited August 25, 2013 by stewfox

[4wd]

On August 8, the Chinese cargo ship Yong Sheng set sail from Dalian, a port city in northeastern China. The Hong Kong-flagged vessel, owned by Chinese state-owned company Cosco Group, is bound for Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, with its cargo of steel and heavy equipment. But unlike most ships from Asia headed for Europe, Yong Sheng is tacking north, through the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

 

The Financial Times reports that Yong Sheng is scheduled to reach its destination in only 35 days, on September 11. This would cut off 13 days from the traditional maritime voyage through the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal. The NSR promises reductions in journey time of up to 40 percent for vessels leaving from north of Hong Kong compared to the so-called Royal Route. Yong Sheng is currently in the Sea of Japan and most recently docked in Busan, South Korea, showing how other ports in northeast Asia also stand to benefit from increased shipping along the NSR.

 

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130822/chinese-cargo-vessel-takes-arctics-burgeoning-northern-sea-route

Seems to be politically motivated to exert China's influence in the area.

There are dozens of ships - with accompanying ice-breakers - doing this route.

The second reason that newspapers are providing ample coverage of Yong Sheng’s journey is because it’s a Chinese vessel. Last summer, the same papers were reporting excitedly (and perhaps somewhat unnervedly) on the Arctic voyage of the Xiao Long, or Snow Dragon -- China’s sole icebreaker. Less fuss is made about Korean or Japanese voyages to the Arctic, whether by their icebreakers or commercial ships. The FT article on the Yong Sheng concludes:

China, which claims to be a “near-Arctic stateâ€, has become more aggressive in asserting its interests in the northern Pacific and Arctic oceans. In May, Beijing secured “permanent observer†status at the Arctic Council, a group uniting the eight countries with territory in the polar region.

[Interitus]

Seems to be politically motivated to exert China's influence in the area.

There are dozens of ships - with accompanying ice-breakers - doing this route.

The second reason that newspapers are providing ample coverage of Yong Sheng’s journey is because it’s a Chinese vessel. Last summer, the same papers were reporting excitedly (and perhaps somewhat unnervedly) on the Arctic voyage of the Xiao Long, or Snow Dragon -- China’s sole icebreaker. Less fuss is made about Korean or Japanese voyages to the Arctic, whether by their icebreakers or commercial ships. The FT article on the Yong Sheng concludes:

China, which claims to be a “near-Arctic stateâ€, has become more aggressive in asserting its interests in the northern Pacific and Arctic oceans. In May, Beijing secured “permanent observer†status at the Arctic Council, a group uniting the eight countries with territory in the polar region.

 

Dozens? From none 5 years ago, to 46 last year, at latest count there are 454 permits granted so far this year - http://nsra.ru/en/razresheniya/

 

The icebreakers are not required for the whole route by any means, only at a couple of tricky spots. However there seems little doubt that the Russians are encouraging this as a lucrative venture and will provide whatever assistance needed from their sizeable icebreaker fleet.

[keithlucky]

Keith, please post a link to the source, or at least state what sea ice metric your graph shows

 

 

 

They can't really be "assumptions" if they've got a lot of empirical evidence to support them? I'd rather predictions that are made on the foundation of strong empirical evidence, rather than pure guess work. You haven't been treated like a "loon" for suggesting the Arctic won't melt out, but without a plausible physical mechanism, and to a lesser extent, evidence to support that mechanism, your idea is just an idea.

Same link as before ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Edited August 26, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice melt season is effectively over Arctic ice highest since 2006

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

[Interitus]

 

What's driven peoples predictions (on many forums) is a 'run away' mentality that the artic in the summer months will be ice free in a few years.

 

There was no empirical evidence that 2013 would be worse then 2012 though many were predicting such a out come.

 

 

This may be true and 2012 will have influenced people's expectations whether scientifically or more naively, the pre-existing state of the ice will have a knock on effect.

However, isn't the reverse also true and 2012 has affected those comments such as 'recovery', or 'have to start somewhere'? Take 2012 out of the mix and this year is another serious melt year similar to others since 2007.

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV I don't know what you cannot understand? Any thoughts, predictions etc etc over what may happen in 10-30 years time is an assumption- it's being assumed that events will take a certain path. You can't take however many years of historical empirical data and state what will happen with certainty years down the line. That is why it is an assumption?

 

An analogy...imagine a 15 year old who may have aced their tests at school and come out with top grade GCSEs. The natural prediction would be to pass all their A levels with flying colours. That is an assumption- despite all the evidence that suggests they'd do well at A-level. However, in the mean time other variables may come into play- a loss in the family, illness etc etc. This may see a failure at A-level and would mean the previous assumptions were wrong.....even though they were based on sound empirical evidence. 

 

As far as climate goes, it might be best to keep an open mind, that's all I'm saying.

 

 

Assumptions, in forecasting terms, inherently lack evidence and are just baseless guesses. Predictions for the sea ice have plenty of evidence to back them up. Thus, they are not assumptions. That's all.

While I agree that it's good to keep an open mind, this has little to do with that.

 

Same link as before ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

 

That's the source of the original data, but not the source of your post!

[keithlucky]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

Edited August 26, 2013 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

This may be true and 2012 will have influenced people's expectations whether scientifically or more naively, the pre-existing state of the ice will have a knock on effect.

However, isn't the reverse also true and 2012 has affected those comments such as 'recovery', or 'have to start somewhere'? Take 2012 out of the mix and this year is another serious melt year similar to others since 2007.

 

I think 2012 came as a shock to many and I don't like the word 'recovery'. I don't see a recovery this year. It will be interesting to see happens to the pack this winter re volume/extent.

 

What ideal conditions create volume I don't know. We clearly need to see a increase in multi year ice.

[Polar Maritime]

Arctic Sea Ice Update: Unlikely To Break Records, But Continuing Downward Trend

 

Aug. 23, 2013

 

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic is well on its way toward its annual "minimum," that time when the floating ice cap covers less of the Arctic Ocean than at any other period during the year. While the ice will continue to shrink until around mid-September, it is unlikely that this year’s summer low will break a new record. Still, this year’s melt rates are in line with the sustained decline of the Arctic ice cover observed by NASA and other satellites over the last several decades.

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent, what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,†said Walt Meier, a glaciologist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “The long-term trend is strongly downward.â€

The icy cover of the Arctic Ocean was measured at 2.25 million square miles (5.83 million square kilometers) on Aug. 21. For comparison, the smallest Arctic sea ice extent on record for this date, recorded in 2012, was 1.67 million square miles (4.34 million square kilometers), and the largest recorded for this date was in 1996, when ice covered 3.16 millions square miles (8.2 million square kilometers) of the Arctic Ocean.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-update-unlikely-to-break-records-but-continuing-downward-trend/#.UhuguxucdXZ

[minus 9]

We're is gray wolf?. Could he be in the artic with his blowtorch trying to melt all that first year ice that didnt melt this year. Seventh lowest artic minimum. Or highest its been for seven years.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I am sure he will pop in shortly

Edited August 29, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[MidAtlanticob]

Hello all. This thread is what lead me to this forum. After the "Great 2012 Arctic Cyclone" that destroyed a lot of the western ice cap, the ability of the ice cap to recover is amazing. This introduces the effects of super cooled water and phase change volatility. Reduced salinity no doubt.

Reply #509 of this thread was found during a web search. If anyone could post a real-time link to this data would be appreciated. Look forward to discuss various old and introduce new theories.

In appreciation to your consideration of my request I will share a link. Some may already have it, but for those that don't it is a must see. The Wiley Post Cam looks at the arctic ocean from Alaska most northern point. It seems to update every 15-20 minutes and is considered real-time data. The site offers time lapse of 1, 3, 10 days and seasonal loops.

Snow is in the forecast with Rain/snow showers in the afternoon next 3 days.

Thanks in advance,

MAO

Link:

It appears a safe guard will not allow me post links. You can web search, Barrow Sea Ice Webcam

Edited August 29, 2013 by MidAtlanticob

[4wd]

Reply #509 of this thread was found during a web search. If anyone could post a link to this data would be appreciated. Look forward to discuss various old and introduce new theories.

 

Google prefers Keith's posts  

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76273-arctic-ice-discussion-2013-melt-season/?p=2764903

A lot of those northern cams will see the first snow soon.

Barrow mentioned - http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

[Interitus]

We're is gray wolf?. Could he be in the artic with his blowtorch trying to melt all that first year ice that didnt melt this year. Seventh lowest artic minimum. Or highest its been for seven years.

 

It's not over yet and it's neck and neck with 2009 and within reach of 2008 and 2010.