Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[VillagePlank]

Over the last 900,000 years, when CO2 levels were kept below 300ppm and the Milankovitch cycles controlled the climate.

 

On the other hand, we can claim the climate has been cooling over the last 5 million years...

 

I'm sorry, I'm lost. According to consensus, CO₂ is the primary controller of the climate; more of it means warmer, less of it means cooler. Since there was quite a lot less a long time again, Milankovitch cycles, themselves surprisingly controversial, could be easily determined from the climate record. Since we  now have lots of CO₂ and are {warming rapidly/not warming rapidly*} suddenly the Milankovitch cycles, which according to Vostok accounts for changes of some 12^oC. Now you said, 'when CO2 levels were kept below 300ppm and the Milankovitch cycles controlled the climate.' Have humankind put so much CO₂ out there that it's affecting planet Earth's wobble and solar orbit? As far as I can tell what controlled the climate eons ago is what controls the climate today - there's just more of some less of the other in terms of radiative forcing. Indeed, the Milankovitch 12C far outweights a rather pathetic 2C man is putting out there, wouldn't you agree?

 

 

*delete as appropriate

Edited August 8, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Methuselah]

Perhaps now would be a good time to return to topic? We have all wandered I feel... 

[VillagePlank]

ok then lots of things being done over the last ten years in regards to co2 so how come its still warming and co2 is still rising?????????

but this year im surprised how well the ice is holding up and with melting slowing we could have a gain on last years growth.

 

Weather probably accounts for year to year changes. As BFTV says, the trend is for ice to continue to disappear at an alarming rate, and you'd expect mini 'recoveries' and mini 'catastrophes' along the way.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest daily sea ice changes.

IJIS: -89k (749k above 2012)

CT: -67k (1.13 million km2 above 2012, 888k below the 81-10 average)

NSIDC: -120k (1.03 million above 2012, 1.16 million below the 81-10 average)

 

 

I'm sorry, I'm lost. According to consensus, CO₂ is the primary controller of the climate; more of it means warmer, less of it means cooler. Since there was quite a lot less a long time again, Milankovitch cycles, themselves surprisingly controversial, could be easily determined from the climate record. Since we  now have lots of CO₂ and are {warming rapidly/not warming rapidly*} suddenly the Milankovitch cycles, which according to Vostok accounts for changes which accounts for some 12^oC. Now you said, 'when CO2 levels were kept below 300ppm and the Milankovitch cycles controlled the climate.' Have humankind put so much CO₂ out there that it's affecting planet Earth's wobble and solar orbit? As far as I can tell what controlled the climate eons ago is what controls the climate today - there's just more of some less of the other in terms of radiative forcing. Indeed, the Milankovitch 12C far outweights a rather pathetic 2C man is putting out there, wouldn't you agree?

 

 

*delete as appropriate

 

I'll respond to you in the natural climate thread in a while.

[masheeuk]

Has anyone noticed that the north pole camera has been pushed over. You can clearly see footprints in one picture and the in the next one the camera is over !!

[VillagePlank]

Has anyone noticed that the north pole camera has been pushed over. You can clearly see footprints in one picture and the in the next one the camera is over !!

 

GW doesn't want us to see developing ice?

[4wd]

These are the images just before, it does look like a bear and cub came across it.
Just before:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130805140424.jpg

Next image:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130805195920.jpg

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130805200420.jpg

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130805200920.jpg

*thud*
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130806195908.jpg

 

 

[keithlucky]

Second largest ice ice gain on record this year http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

 

Edited August 8, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

6 weeks early almost the entire polar region below freezing

[knocker]

Second largest ice ice gain on record this year

 

Well there is a surprise after last year.

 

The large variability in July melt-rates indicates that the ice extent has been controlled by local weather. The large weather-influence on the melt-rate is occurring because the sea ice has become thin and fragile. At the Polar Science Centre at The University of Washington, they estimate (from modeling results) that the average sea ice thickness in 2011-2013 is significantly thinner than in previous years . The weather in August will be of crucial importance whether the Arctic faces a new season of record low sea ice extent, or whether the sea ice will recover after last year’s minimum.

 

Arctic sea ice 2013. Observations before the melt season

Written by Brian Hansen og Susanne Hanson

juni 18, 2013

DMI, Centre for Ocean and Ice

 

Key statements:

[*]The summer sea ice extent is almost 30% smaller than in the early 1980’s. The winter extent has also declined, with approximately 10 % having disappeared

 

[*]The extent of multi-year ice, and thereby the thickness of the sea ice, has also been significantly reduced.

 

[*]The ice extent at the end of the melting season (September) in 2012 set a new record: it was the lowest extent observed since the beginning of satellite surveys in 1979. Compared to the average extent over the period 1979 to 2000, the 2012 extent was reduced by 49%.

 

[*]The ice extent in May 2013 followed the evolution from the previous years and was below the average for the period 1979 to 2000. Compared to this average, there was about 500,000 km2 less sea ice in May 2013.

http://polarportal.org/en/arctic-sea-ice/

 

 

Edited August 8, 2013 by knocker

[keithlucky]

Looker at the graph Knocker 2nd highest ice gain since 1996 with temperatures below 0 the most ice gain yearly record will break  again in the next few days.

[knocker]

I'm just suggesting it's rather helpful to look at the whole picture over a period of time and not just one graph showing just showing  extent that is weather related and particularly after 2012.

[stewfox]

Weather probably accounts for year to year changes. As BFTV says, the trend is for ice to continue to disappear at an alarming rate, and you'd expect mini 'recoveries' and mini 'catastrophes' along the way.

 

But global sea ice has been above the long term average for most of 2013 so I don't see this 'trend for disappearing ice at a alarming rate'

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

[stewfox]

 

Who will fund all those oil company propaganda blogs when the ice disappears!?

 

 

The Arctic ice loss on trends, is about 3 times greater than Antarctic sea ice gain, so not enough to compensate. We 're still seeing quite a bit of Arctic Amplification also, to the poles will continue to warm anyway. The increased albedo from the additional sea ice, while a slight -ve feedback, has not been enough to cool Antarctica, and the ice sheet continues to melt.

 

As mentioned above, Global sea ice levels remain above the long term average which would imply above average albedo for 2013

.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

Edited August 8, 2013 by stewfox

[be cause]

*If you stick your albedo where the sun don't shine ie the Antarctic winter .. does it count for much ?

 

As mentioned above, Global sea ice levels remain above the long term average which would imply above average albedo for 2013

.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

[jethro]

*If you stick your albedo where the sun don't shine ie the Antarctic winter .. does it count for much ?

 

What matters is if either end retain their ice during the light six months, hopefully the growth at the South Pole will mean there's more ice down there during the summer months. Time will tell of course. 

[knocker]

Again perhaps a better perspective.

 

As summer Arctic sea ice melts away to nothing, it's important to remember that not only is the ice shrinking in size - it's also getting younger and thinner.

 

Despite the overwhelming evidence, there are plenty of voices in the media that would deny the severity of the situation. In recent days, some have pointed to the fact that the current level of sea ice coverage is less than it was this time last year.

 

But that type of interpretation ignores the complexity of the melting trend, in which year-to-year variability is normal within the downward slide.  Sebastian Gerland, sea ice expert at NPI, said that even if June 2013 isn't quite as low as 2012, it is important to remember that 2012 marked the lowest Arctic sea ice extent in recorded history, and that the 30-plus-year long  negative trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent is substantial.

 

 

 

http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/07/summer-sea-ice-cover-smaller-younger-thinner-02-07

[VillagePlank]

But global sea ice has been above the long term average for most of 2013 so I don't see this 'trend for disappearing ice at a alarming rate'

 

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

Sorry, my phrasing is wrong - I meant Arctic ice.

[Interitus]

Interesting source Knocker, they have some good articles on the opening of the northern sea route (NSR) -

 

a total of 46 vessels in 2012 sailed transit along the NSR. Five years ago, the number was zero. In 2009, two ships, the "Beluga Fraternity" and "Beluga Foresight", made the trans-continental journey. Then, in 2011, the shipments picked pace with as many as 41 vessels.

 

As previously reported, the extent of sea ice along the route is below average and vessels are sailing parts of the route without icebreaker escort. A total of 270 vessels have so far this year received permits to sail along the Northern Sea Route, a fivefold increase from 2012.

 

http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/08/northern-sea-route-comes-life-07-08

 

 

 

[knocker]

Three-Decade Decline in Reflectivity of Arctic Sea Ice

 

Aug. 8, 2013 — The reflectivity of Arctic sea ice, or albedo, regulates the solar radiation balance. A diminishing albedo affects the melt rate of Arctic sea ice.

 

According to a study done by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the albedo (reflectivity) of Arctic sea ice has declined over the past three decades. The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change on 4 August 2013. During summer months, the albedo in the Arctic sea ice zone regulates the radiation balance in the region, which is why albedo is crucial to the Arctic climate. A decline in albedo means that a greater percentage of solar radiation energy is absorbed by the ice, thus accelerating its melt rate.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130808091924.htm#.UgRJyd8EtZw.twitter

Edited August 9, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

As mentioned above, Global sea ice levels remain above the long term average which would imply above average albedo for 2013

.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

It's currently below average...

[stewfox]

*If you stick your albedo where the sun don't shine ie the Antarctic winter .. does it count for much ?

 

I was talking about sea ice , not the land mass or the pole itself ?

 

Sea ice can be found as far North as 55 Degrees South . I assume the sun shines even in the winter in Newcastle ?

 

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/

 

You cant just look at 6 weeks in the summer in the artic and say all albedo is going, globally.

[stewfox]

It's currently below average...

 

Not at the charts I'm looking at. Can you post a link.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not at the charts I'm looking at. Can you post a link.

 

The chart you posted, it's currently below average, look closer!

 

Antarctic anomaly +870k (2nd highest)

Arctic anomaly -1046k (7th lowest)

 

Global anomaly -176k.

 

It was slightly difference yesterday, around -120k I think.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an animation of the last few days sea ice concentration from the University of Bremen's AMSR2 data.

 

 

The effect of the warmth of the Canadian Archipelago and the Beaufort sea are quite clear, as is the storm, spreading an area of low concentration from the Chukchi sea right down to the North Pole. The storm is still going, but easing later today, so tomorrows update should be interesting.