Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[knocker]

Santa’s workshop not flooded – but lots of melting in the Arctic

Santa’s workshop at the North Pole is not under water, despite recent reports. A dramatic image captured by a University of Washington monitoring buoy reportedly shows a lake at the North Pole. But Santa doesn’t yet need to buy a snorkel.

 

“Every summer when the sun melts the surface the water has to go someplace, so it accumulates in these ponds,†said Jamie Morison, a polar scientist at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory and principal investigator since 2000 of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. “This doesn’t look particularly extreme.â€

 

 

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/07/30/santas-workshop-not-flooded-but-lots-of-melting-in-the-arctic/

[Geordiesnow]

Just a little question I got which has just popped up in my mind.

 

If say recently Arctic ice has been spread out by this recent storm in some areas, then why has the area increased somewhat? Surely if the ice got spread out and thus got holes in it, then area should of decreased whilst the extent slowed down?

 

Looking at the thicknesses charts, the storm most certainly caused some damage to the thicker ice but perhaps not as much as it could of been if earlier forecasts were correct. That said, its sad too see how thin the ice is when you compare it even to last year.

 

Whilst 2M to 2 and half metre of ice is hardly very thin in general terms, it does raise concerns what the next few years could see if we see an more high pressure dominated summer next summer or even an event where see another very deep low occuring. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

I suppose the big hope is that we bottomed out in 2012 and will now see a steady recovery, especially if the summers revert back to a more normal setting.

 

The only caveat to this is that the same thing was said after 2007 and then look what came along five years later.

 

The ice melt may be down to a number of different factors, but anyone who denies that it is melting has got their head in the sand.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a little question I got which has just popped up in my mind.

 

If say recently Arctic ice has been spread out by this recent storm in some areas, then why has the area increased somewhat? Surely if the ice got spread out and thus got holes in it, then area should of decreased whilst the extent slowed down?

 

Looking at the thicknesses charts, the storm most certainly caused some damage to the thicker ice but perhaps not as much as it could of been if earlier forecasts were correct. That said, its sad too see how thin the ice is when you compare it even to last year.

 

Whilst 2M to 2 and half metre of ice is hardly very thin in general terms, it does raise concerns what the next few years could see if we see an more high pressure dominated summer next summer or even an event where see another very deep low occuring. 

 

There doesn't appear to be a straight forward answer to this.

 

As always, following the day to day changes can be misleading, but the stall in losses has gone on too long for that to be the whole explanation. Some discussion I've seen suggests that dense cloud cover during the storm caused some problems, and that the storm caused a lot of surface melt water to drain, which affected the concentration values.

Another issue, is when the ice is moving quickly enough, the individual floes can get recorded twice as they move from the field of view of one satellite pass across to another pass.

 

Personally, I think disruption to the melt ponding was the main contributor, which increased the concentration values in many areas. With the central Arctic being quite cool this year, we're seeing extensive melt ponding quite late in the season, which is causing issues with the sensors.

 

Are we still on target for the lowest July drop 'on record'

 

Depends, IJIS or NSIDC?

With IJIS, they don't give out the long term daily data easily (and what they do have comes from such a wide variety of sources, as to make comparisons with distant years unreliable), so I couldn't say.

 

With NSIDC it depends on the last 2 days. Large losses on both would give us the biggest drop on record, average losses a top 3 finish and no change would leave us at about 7th lowest.

[BornFromTheVoid]

An above average drop of 82.7k on IJIS today, while CT continues it's plateau with a drop of just 5.5k. The plateau has gone on for pretty much a week now, but surprisingly, these do occur quite often in late July/early August, such as in 79, 85, 87, 93, 97, 01, and 05.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A monthly IJIS drop of 2,835,625 km2 for July

NSIDC saw a drop of 3,052,420km2 for July

CT saw an area drop of 2,889,726km2

 

All larger than 2012 and well above the long term average.

 

But with the effects of the early August storm last year still to come, it's going to be a big ask to catch 2012.

[barrel1234]

With the fragile state of the pack my opinion of why extent hasn't dropped as much as some were predicting is firstly due to low export of ice through Fram, it has been like this for quite a time so positive effects (or less negative effect if you want to see it that way) for those who want to see the ice levels doing well.  

 

The second reason why I believe that we are not down at 2012 levels is one that should be quite obvious .....  Temps above 80 degrees north have been below average for quite some time now (approx 100 days)  quite surprising considering the very much higher than average sea surface temperatures surrounding the pack, possibly this is just caused my generally much cloudier conditions than what you would see on average during an arctic summer.

 

. It would be interesting to do a study to see if there is a link between amount of sunshine and export of ice through Fram..... maybe the two could be linked through dominant weather patterns? Just a thought.   I don't dispute that average global temps have risen in the last 30 years but we still do not know how the arctic could react to a few years of generally favorable conditions for ice growth.

[Geordiesnow]

With the fragile state of the pack my opinion of why extent hasn't dropped as much as some were predicting is firstly due to low export of ice through Fram, it has been like this for quite a time so positive effects (or less negative effect if you want to see it that way) for those who want to see the ice levels doing well.  

 

Not really sure I agree with the first bit sadly, I assume the low export could be due to the lack of thicker ice in the Arctic this year, I find looking at the current ice thicknesses charts quite depressing and sad too see to be honest, it seems if its not high pressure reducing the thicker ice, its deep low pressure systems like the one we just had, although as I mentioned previously, thankfully the low reduced in intensity quicker than perhaps first predicted. 

 

Looking at the ice thicknesses charts, I'm still a tad reluctant too say we still can't reach the lowest on record, we may still get that infamous deep low pressure system forming(there has been some hints we may see a deep low forming near the pole but its a bit far out and theres no agreement on this) during August. Also August into September, the Arctic tends to get that bit stormier so its one too watch for sure. 

 

Looking at the current weather patterns, the overall pattern from now upto the medium term for reletively slack conditions but as per usual these days its never inch perfect. Quite a huge slice of quite hot air is projected for Beaufort Sea and we have thicker ice there so if this melts(which it probably will before the season is out) then we could lose even more thicker ice sooner than we would of liked and and there is some very modest mild air in the open waters over Laptev whilst the Kara Sea still looks very tropical as it has been since the start of the month after a slow cold start during June. Reason I mentioned this is because the fairly warm(for their standards) I would assume could push that ice edge even further North than it is at the moment and in my eyes, the ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic looks to be the lowest on record so any further warmth would unfortunately push it further North one would of thought. 

 

So despite the cold projected for the middle part of the Arctic, the open water areas do look quite mild but I suppose we have seen much worse set ups than the ones being projected so it will be interesting how area/extent will respond during the next 5-7 days. 

[stewfox]

. 

 

Looking at the current weather patterns, the overall pattern from now upto the medium term for reletively slack conditions but as per usual these days its never inch perfect. Quite a huge slice of quite hot air is projected for Beaufort Sea and we have thicker ice there so if this melts(which it probably will before the season is out) then we could lose even more thicker ice sooner than we would of liked and and there is some very modest mild air in the open waters over Laptev whilst the Kara Sea still looks very tropical as it has been since the start of the month after a slow cold start during June. Reason I mentioned this is because the fairly warm(for their standards) I would assume could push that ice edge even further North than it is at the moment and in my eyes, the ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic looks to be the lowest on record so any further warmth would unfortunately push it further North one would of thought. 

 

 

 

Does look like the Atlantic side has taken a real battering this year so far and 'relatively, the eastern side has held up better

 

Its interesting we still lost about 2m from this date in 2007 although the ice concentration charts seem to show a wider area at 100% then we have

now

 

http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

 

Also is usual to see a fairly large area of sea ice in the southern Hudson bay for this time of year and would that be just 'ice' drifting south ?

 

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS30CT/20130801180000_WIS30CT_0007190393.pdf

 

I think I found the answer

 

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=9CD04FB5-1&offset=1&toc=show

Edited August 2, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not really sure I agree with the first bit sadly, I assume the low export could be due to the lack of thicker ice in the Arctic this year, I find looking at the current ice thicknesses charts quite depressing and sad too see to be honest, it seems if its not high pressure reducing the thicker ice, its deep low pressure systems like the one we just had, although as I mentioned previously, thankfully the low reduced in intensity quicker than perhaps first predicted. 

 

 

The lack of ice in the Greenland sea, while partially down to the thinness of the ice, is mainly due the the dominant air pressure pattern we've seen. We've had anomalous high pressure towards the Barents sea and generally east of Svalbard, while a +ve NAO has been in place. This has created a -ve pressure gradient from east to west by the Fram strait which reduces the southerly flow through, inhibiting sea ice export in the region.

 

We saw similar conditions towards the end of summer 2002 and 2003, when Greenland sea ice area was almost zero.

[4wd]

Worth reading again, since the winds seem to be aiding retention this year.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/22/wind-sea-ice-loss-arctic

 

[knocker]

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/piomas-august-2013.html

Edited August 3, 2013 by knocker

[Geordiesnow]

Wow... The models are really deepening this storm up for next week now, it was projected at 995MB in general yesterday now it could potentially get down to 980MB and with high pressure in the Beaufort sea its causing a massive pressure gradient on the western flank of the low, heading down to the fram stright. 

 

Unlike the last storm, I think this one will have a negative impact on short term ice loss in extent and it could potentially be quite severe, don't rule out this year reaching record lows just yet, it might seem unlikely under normal circumstances but the the weather patterns for the whole Arctic are as bad as it gets. 

 

Big deep low in the worse possible location, very strong dipole, Beaufort Sea warming up rapidly, Kara Sea still looks more like the tropics than a sea that used to contain sea ice during the summer, Canadian Arctic islands looking very warm also. Extent figures from Wednesday onwards could be quite interesting too see. 

 

Perhaps the only saving grace with this low is that perhaps with the amount of cold air attached to it, it may lead to a lot of snowfall which may protect the ice to a certain extent and the fact temperatures could be quite cold may help protect the ice more than say if this happened in July with a lot more warm air wrapped around it but these are very slight positives I can find from what looks quite a worrying outlook for Arctic ice next week. 

[knocker]

Surface Wind on Thursday 08 Aug at 12am UTC

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Certainly the year of lows and this one has all the ingredients to drop below 980!!!

 

We may not have seen 'losses' from the last low but one look at the concentration maps show us just how fragile huge areas of the basin became because of it?

 

Another low ( and one that appears comparable with last years GAC12) will not do ice retention hopes any favours at all  with , like last year, a lot of ice already very vulnerable and about to 'blink out'?

 

We also se a strong di-pole setting up so a double whammy with loss through Fram now looking a strong possibility.

 

A long time before the Le Grand Madame even appears in the wings of this years  'Melt Season'  production ........ just how close to 2012 could we find ourselves in this ' one step forward, two steps back' of a melt season  we are having? Just when I think we've 'got off lightly' with one potential period of loss another potential period of losses looms large!

 

Never a dull moment eh?

 

A word to those who are itching to cry 'recovery'......keep your powder dry for another two weeks at least!!"!!

Edited August 4, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

NUNAVUT

 

Nothing to do with melt but a great video.

 

[Interitus]

Nice video, but at the start the Inuits struggled with the e-i-e-i-o in 'Old McDonald had a farm'.

[stewfox]

Nice video, but at the start the Inuits struggled with the e-i-e-i-o in 'Old McDonald had a farm'.

 

Could we be seeing the location for the first summer hotel chain in 20 yrs time ? Reminded me of a promotional Maldives Island video I saw but this time with the ice.

 

Any update re the storm ?

[Methuselah]

Nice video, but at the start the Inuits struggled with the e-i-e-i-o in 'Old McDonald had a farm'.

That was the official Inuit version of Jimmie Rogers's Blue Yodel...

[be cause]

lol ... melt season on holiday ..?

[knocker]

Reflections on a changing Arctic: Less ice means faster warming

The Arctic is intricately linked to earth's climate. As Arctic sea ice declines, the effects are being felt far beyond the Arctic region. Now a new study shows how losing sea ice means the top of the planet is absorbing more heat than it did just three decades ago - and it makes for a sobering read.

 

 

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/08/reflections-on-a-changing-arctic-less-ice-means-faster-warming

[Gray-Wolf]

The thing is the larger process is again a slow process ( like CO2's full impacts on global temps?) with a lot of permafrost fringing the Arctic basin slowly melting. The scale , once again , of the wildfires across Siberia must twitch some folk ( knowing that the ground below will heat faster due to the loss of albedo over the coming years once snow cover clears).

 

We are also seeing the increased mixing of the surface waters of the basin, losing the old stratification that made the basin 'unique' to any other world ocean, due to the storms ( like the current one) hitting whilst open water is present ( last years GAC12 gave buoy readings showing interactions down to 200m!).

 

No matter what becomes of this current season the trend is clear ( as with global temps) but you can bet your bottom dollar 'natural variation' will be labelled as 'other' by the very folk who hold out for 'natural variation' being the root of all the current global changes.........

[knocker]

Ice thickness

 

 

[barrel1234]

There is approximately 33 days to go before before the average minimum....... this is ceratainly going to be interesting...... can the fragile pack hold up and avoid a big nosedive...... I shall be watching with great interest.

[keithlucky]

There is approximately 33 days to go before before the average minimum....... this is ceratainly going to be interesting...... can the fragile pack hold up and avoid a big nosedive...... I shall be watching with great interest.

With large snowstorm to hit the arctic in 4days it should help to preserve the ice 

Edited August 6, 2013 by keithlucky