Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest Arctic sea ice loss

 

IJIS: -129.2k (4th lowest on record for the current date)

CT: -121.9k (5th lowest on record for the current date)

NSIDC: -159.9k (4th lowest on record for the current date)

 

We've already dropped over 2.2 million km2 this month on the NSIDC extent, and 1.95 million km2 with IJIS.

 

Apologies to anyone that finds this data to be biased, negative, alarmist spin.

[knocker]

Sea Ice coverage on the northern hemisphere

The figure shows a map with daily updated sea Ice coverage on the northern hemisphere. The scale goes from white that is 100% ice cover, to black that defines the ice edge. The blue colour indicates coastal lines. The melt season begins when the sunlight intensifies in the spring, and surface temperatures (see the temperature plot above) rises to above zero.

The ice covered area is calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 15% are classified as ice, and below 15% as open water.

http://polarportal.org/en/arctic-sea-ice/nbsp/sea-ice-temperature/

Edited July 18, 2013 by knocker

[The PIT]

Latest Arctic sea ice loss

 

IJIS: -129.2k (4th lowest on record for the current date)

CT: -121.9k (5th lowest on record for the current date)

NSIDC: -159.9k (4th lowest on record for the current date)

 

We've already dropped over 2.2 million km2 this month on the NSIDC extent, and 1.95 million km2 with IJIS.

 

Apologies to anyone that finds this data to be biased, negative, alarmist spin.

Not alarmist as your posting facts. I suspect a few on here were hoping it to be the lowest by a long way.

[UV-RAY]

Not alarmist as your posting facts. I suspect a few on here were hoping it to be the lowest by a long way.

Agreed, but it doesn't explain why though and that is one thing we mustn't overlook.

[knocker]

Agreed, but it doesn't explain why though and that is one thing we mustn't overlook.

 

I Don't agree. I'm not sure who on here were hoping it to be the lowest by a long way. It tends to indicate that some would wish this to prove their own beliefs which I don't think is correct. As to the why. Suggestions?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I Don't agree. I'm not sure who on here were hoping it to be the lowest by a long way. It tends to indicate that some would wish this to prove their own beliefs which I don't think is correct. As to the why. Suggestions?

 

Now, I'm a little confused. I presumed the "why" was in relation to the large sea ice loss and "why", despite such a cold few months, we're approaching lowest on record yet again, as the data shows? Perhaps I'm being naive...

 

SI, some clarification?

Edited July 18, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

Indeed BFTV

Edited July 18, 2013 by knocker

[Devonian]

I Don't agree. I'm not sure who on here were hoping it to be the lowest by a long way. It tends to indicate that some would wish this to prove their own beliefs which I don't think is correct. As to the why. Suggestions?

Likewise. I can't think of anyone here who wants the ice to go. Truth be told part of my interest in sea ice is from looking down on the sheer beauty of it during a flight to the US. I'd be very sad, angry even, to see permanent sea ice go with our actions undoubtedly being part of the reason. Edited July 19, 2013 by Devonian

[Devonian]

Likewise. I can't think of anyone here who wants the ice to go. Truth be told part of my interest in sea ice is from looking down on the sheer beauty of it during a flight* to the US. I'd be very sad, angry even, to sea permanent ice go with our actions undoubtedly being part of the reason.

* oh , just to add, my only long haul flight. Edited July 19, 2013 by Devonian

[UV-RAY]

Now, I'm a little confused. I presumed the "why" was in relation to the large sea ice loss and "why", despite such a cold few months, we're approaching lowest on record yet again, as the data shows? Perhaps I'm being naive...

 

SI, some clarification?

What I'm implying is not one of us can state with a degree of confidence the causation, yes it could be CO2 but it could also be down to oceanic heat content, volcanic, solar or all. 

[The PIT]

Or how about a bit of natural climate change and little bit of man made input. Can't see it been volcanic activity as there isn't any indication of a massive increase of volcanic output.

[knocker]

What I'm implying is not one of us can state with a degree of confidence the causation, yes it could be CO2 but it could also be down to oceanic heat content, volcanic, solar or all. 

 

That is true but has it not been discussed in a number of papers that the slow down in surface temps is because the oceans have absorbed more of the excess heat generated thus this is just one of the feedbacks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

No comment on the IJIS and CT drops today?

 

IJIS has dropped a massive 196.9k, moving us to just 255.5k off 2012. We'd only need to drop an average of 113/day to pass out 2012 in 4 days...

 

Meanwhile, CT saw a drop of 271.8k, which takes us to just over 474.8k off 2012, and 318k off the 07,11 and 12 average.

 

Will the NSIDC extent follow suit I wonder?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop of 94.1k in the NSIDC extent, close to average. It's still enough to take us closer to the 3 lowest years on record, 07, 11 and 12. We're now just 80.8k off 2007.

Just 82k/day now needed to record the largest July extent drop on record

[be cause]

So by CT area figures we are less than 5 days behind the record 2012 melt but 62 days ahead of 1979 .

 

the staying power of our first year ice will be well tested over the next 2 months

[stewfox]

So by CT area figures we are less than 5 days behind the record 2012 melt but 62 days ahead of 1979 .

 

the staying power of our first year ice will be well tested over the next 2 months

 

Are we under any of the previous minimums from previous years yet ?

Edited July 19, 2013 by stewfox

[be cause]

Are we under any of the previous minimums from previous years yet ?

that honour is reserved for tomorrow ... currently only 4000 sq km above 1980 minimum 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Are we under any of the previous minimums from previous years yet ?

 

Nope, closest extent minimum is 1980 (+314,040km2)

 

Similar with the area, closest is 1980 (+4k)

 

[Geordiesnow]

Could be quite a serious Arctic storm for parts of the basin next week, the likely place where the storm will be at its deepest is going to be where the thickest of the ice is going to be. It starts in the Laptev Sea where its all flabby and then heads to the Chukchi Sea where it still looks flabby and uninteresting but it then starts to deepen rapidly as it heads into parts of the Beaufort Sea and is quite deep where all the thickest ice is before it heads off near the pole with it only slightly less deep than before. By the time it gets to the pole, there could be changes in its track and potency but all the models agree this low will deepen rapidly as its heads to the Beaufort Sea so we could potentially have deja vu August 2012 event on our hands. 

 

That said, with the low positioning a little different to August 2012, maybe we won't see the damage being done to ice extent this time but more likely damage to the thickest ice so this storm could do some long term damage. Its one to watch and I'm a bit surprised there has not been any comments on this. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

After a drop of 160.4k, we're now on the 4th lowest area on CT , and we've also dropped below the minima of 1980, 1983 and 1986.

 

[reef]

This year is quite an interesting melt season so far. Most of the spring looked pretty chilly in the Arctic and as recently as mid-June we were well above the 2000s average ice extent/area.

 

Looking at charts now it seems we're dead on course to get close to last year, despite a thoroughly +ve AO keeping what little amount of colder air there is at this time of the year within the Arctic circle.

 

The final number will be dependent on how close to the pole blasts of warm air can get, at the moment with the trough firmly over the pole its just eating away at the edges so these large falls may begin to slow until that changes.

[Geordiesnow]

This year is quite an interesting melt season so far. Most of the spring looked pretty chilly in the Arctic and as recently as mid-June we were well above the 2000s average ice extent/area.

 

Looking at charts now it seems we're dead on course to get close to last year, despite a thoroughly +ve AO keeping what little amount of colder air there is at this time of the year within the Arctic circle.

 

The final number will be dependent on how close to the pole blasts of warm air can get, at the moment with the trough firmly over the pole its just eating away at the edges so these large falls may begin to slow until that changes.

 

If that Arctic storm that is being projected was not being predicted I would be more reluctant to say we're dead on course to get close to last year because the 30% coverage would suggest the extent should stay a little away from the 2007/11/12 extents for the time being and of course in theory the longer this takes the less likely we will get close to the lowest on record or beat the lowest extent. Also the pattern of retreat is different to last year(looks similar to 2011 to me) with more extensive ice in Beaufort being the main one but even in other areas such as the Siberian Sea looks slightly better than last year. 

 

All that said, the ice does look thinner this year and that is a concern aswell as that Arctic Storm. If it occurs as its projected, what impacts will it have on sea ice? I suggested earlier because of its positioning it may not have an effect on ice extent in the short term but the long term damage could be severe? Next week will be an interesting one. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Agreed guys. Another interesting feature this melt season has been the lack of the +ve dipole pattern and very little ice export through Fram. Really, we've had every opportunity to maintain a good coverage of ice cover up to July, and just a few weeks of slight warmth (still nothing compared to 2012 or 2007) has sent us close to lowest on record again.

 

Here's a comparison between the storm last August and the foretasted one net week.

 

 

 

The storm next week is quite as strong or as widespread as last year, but with the ice very thin, it will still be interesting to watch.

 

Also, a slight increase in the NSIDC extent, +29k. It seems to be related to spreading out of ice near the Chukchi sea as that region has lost a large amount of ice "area" recently.

[Gray-Wolf]

I just hope that folk can hold onto what they have witnessed prior to this storm in that it shows that the ice is so compromised that even the 'odd' year ( compared to other post 07' years) has not been able to stall the melt out we have become accustomed to ( post 07'). We just have to face up to the fact that FY ice does not endure summer in either Arctic or Antarctic seas?

 

As such the loss of 'older ice' must begin to ring alarm bells for the staunchest of denier as without it the pack will be 'seasonal'.

 

As for the forecast storm? Well i'd say it will mess up the areas still holding onto anomalous amounts of ice?

 

I did not expect the kind of weather year that we have seen over the basin when I suggested that we were beyond 'rebound' years and the behaviour of the ice this season further reinforces this notion in me. We are working our way to a seasonal pack ( anyone fool enough to suggest that 'certain posters' would wish for such surely show just how removed from reality they really are???, I mean??? do they fully understand what a seasonal pack will mean to our world and the speed of change we see in it???? Why would any one soul wish for it's arrival????)  and nothing barring catastrophic cooling over an extended period can reverse this 'trend'. The time for 'recovery was back in the 50's and at the latest the late 70's???

 

Anyhoo's, let's see where the mangled pack takes us before the onset of the forecast storm first?

[Geordiesnow]

Agreed guys. Another interesting feature this melt season has been the lack of the +ve dipole pattern and very little ice export through Fram. Really, we've had every opportunity to maintain a good coverage of ice cover up to July, and just a few weeks of slight warmth (still nothing compared to 2012 or 2007) has sent us close to lowest on record again.

 

Here's a comparison between the storm last August and the foretasted one net week.

 

 

 

The storm next week is quite as strong or as widespread as last year, but with the ice very thin, it will still be interesting to watch.

 

Also, a slight increase in the NSIDC extent, +29k. It seems to be related to spreading out of ice near the Chukchi sea as that region has lost a large amount of ice "area" recently.

 

To be fair we still have to wait what the ice minimum will be like until we can jump into conclusions but even though the weather may of been cool this year, the ice was always thin and it will always be a task for the ice to "recover" from such a low extent last year(bearing in mind the extent was lowest more or less during the Autumn months also) so its perhaps not much of a surprise that we may head to quite an low extent again this year.