Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[picog]

No puddles visible yet on the web cams planted near the north pole. Are the puddles appearing later than recent years, or am I just not remembering properly?

Edited June 27, 2013 by picog

[BornFromTheVoid]

June 27 snow and ice in Arctic.jpgNo puddles visible yet on the web cams planted near the north pole. Are the puddles appearing later than recent years, or am I just not remembering properly?

 

Here's a video clip from camera 1 during all of last years melt season. The melt pools there didn't start forming until around July 2nd or 3rd.

Here's the same for camera 2, melt pools form at a similar date.

 

We still have a while yet, but there seems little sign of clear skies and warmth near the N. Pole so I wouldn't be surprised if they are a little late this time.

[Geordiesnow]

Am I the only one who is a tad concerned about the sheer warmth that is projected in the Barents/Kara seas, at least according to the GFS, it could be quite persistent and the ice in the kara sea which has held out longer than last year and the year before that looks prime for severe melt after the next few days or so(around the 30th seems to be when the southerlies return again). With all the warmth Scandinavia has had this year, I wonder if the SST's around these areas are way above average and with southerly winds, my thinking is that it will drag some of these warm(given its location) SST's towards the Arctic ocean proper and bottom melt may result in a more severe fashion on the Atlantic side of the Arctic this year?

 

Yes I know having the 10C upper air temp is not unusual at that high latitude in the summer months but this Spring/Summer, it has been quite persistent in my eyes and i just hope apart from the outer basin ice, it will not affect the sea ice nearer to the pole. 

 

Even though conditions in the basin may look reasonable enough, I think we will see quite a drop in ice extent with Kara/Hudson Bay look set for big drops. My prediction could be is that we may track closer to the 2007 line rather than the 2008/09 line in the next week or so. Should be interesting to see though. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The big losses continue, with CT joining back in and dropping 212k in area on the latest update, while IJIS dropped 77k.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Second day dropping 146k on NSIDC. That takes us below 2009 and into 9th lowest on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite a mix today.

 

CT has had a remarkable 92k increase in area, which keeps us well below average, but over 1 million km2 above 2012.

 

Meanwhile, IJIS lost an impressive 165k, taking it back below the 2000s average.

 

NSIDC extent has dropped 169k on the last update. This makes it, I think, 3rd highest weekly loss in June for any one year (823,870km2), behind just 2012 (1st: 1,097,100 million km2) and surprisingly 1999 (2nd: 941,100km2).

Edited June 29, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[be cause]

Yes .. CT's 92k increase is remarkable as it conflicts with their own visual imagery for the past 24 hrs .. which shows retreating ice on nearly all fronts !

[stewfox]

Yes .. CT's 92k increase is remarkable as it conflicts with their own visual imagery for the past 24 hrs .. which shows retreating ice on nearly all fronts !

 

 

IJIS now puts us above the 2000's average as we end June , who would have forecast that at the beginning of the melt season . 5.8m as a min was my original punt which I changed to 4.9m a few days later, just cant see sub 3m this season .

 

To play catch up with worst 2yrs (IJIS measure) your looking for around 3.4m drop for the month of July ie  by 1st August the years 2007,  and 2013 were around 6.324m and 6.467m respectively

 

I can see us being at 7.6m by July end or 2.2m drop for July still way above the 1980s, 1990s averages of course.

 

I would not be 'surprised' at retreating ice on all fronts in July as well its not unusual.

Edited July 1, 2013 by stewfox

[Geordiesnow]

IJIS now puts us above the 2000's average as we end June , who would have forecast that at the beginning of the melt season . 5.8m as a min was my original punt which I changed to 4.9m a few days later, just cant see sub 3m this season .

 

To play catch up with worst 2yrs (IJIS measure) your looking for around 3.4m drop for the month of July ie  by 1st August the years 2007,  and 2013 were around 6.324m and 6.467m respectively

 

I can see us being at 7.6m by July end or 2.2m drop for July still way above the 1980s, 1990s averages of course.

 

I would not be 'surprised' at retreating ice on all fronts in July as well its not unusual.

 

Well part of what may happen will depend on weather conditions and another part on the state of the ice. Ice thicknesses are really poor to the East of the North Pole so I expect ice to retreat quickly around here. 

 

One may hope we have a positive feedback of ice in respect that a larger extent in the Beaufort sea may help us but I would not be totally surprise if we see quite a steep drop later on in the summer season but as I said earlier, its turning out to be an interesting summer season for sure. 

 

Looking on the Danish ice extent website today, it seems the 30% coverage has slowed down today so this may in turn mean a slow down in the 15% coverage. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

What's interesting, is that the average June extent melt(1.76 million km2) is typically much lower than the average July extent melt (2.73 million m2) . In 2012 was slightly different, despite recording the highest June melt on record (2.92 million km2) the July melt was just slightly above average, just 2.95 million km2.

 

This June has dropped about 2.25 million km2, so above average but not exceptionally so(and below average of the last 5 years). Generally, June's that don't drop huge amounts in recent years, tend to have much larger extent decreases in July.

 

Extent loss in millions km2

Year........ June ........July

2007........2.20  ........3.34

2008 .......2.00 .........2.89

2009 .......1.88 .........3.39

2010 .......2.65 .........2.50

2011........2.40 .........2.80

2012 .......2.92 .........2.95

 

07-09.....2.02 ..........3.21  =+59%

10-12.....2.66 ..........2.75 = +3%

 

So, what kind of drop might we see this month? Well, one thing to note, is the huge amount of peripheral ice we have left to melt away

 

Kara Sea............ 755k

Barents Sea....... 036k (791k)

Baffin Sea.......... 579k (1370k)

Hudson Bay........718k (2088k)

 

All that above ice has generally been reduced to close to nothing by the end of July over the last decade, so I think we could count, quite comfortably, on 1.6-1.7 million loss from those regions.

 

But then we also have the Candian Archipelago, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas which have another 4.3 million or so left, and generally start their melting properly in July.

 

 

So, with all that easy to melt ice still left, lots of low concentration ice in eastern central Arctic, plus the ice that generally starts melting in July already beginning to lower in concentration based on MODIS data, I'd say a likely range of melt in July from 2.6 million km2 (given cool condition remain across the Pacific side of the Arctic) to 3.6 million km2 (if conditions turn warm and the dipole sets up)

 

But a best estimate of 3.2 million.

 

All the data is from the NSIDC daily extent here and here, and the MASIE extent here

 

EDIT: Said "larger" instead of "lower" on the first line for some reason. Thanks be cause!

Edited July 1, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[stewfox]

What's interesting, is that the average June extent melt(1.76 million km2) is typically much lower than the average July extent melt (2.73 million m2) . In 2012 was slightly different, despite recording the highest June melt on record (2.92 million km2) the July melt was just slightly above average, just 2.95 million km2.

 

This June has dropped about 2.25 million km2, so above average but not exceptionally so(and below average of the last 5 years). Generally, June's that don't drop huge amounts in recent years, tend to have much larger extent decreases in July.

 

Extent loss in millions km2

Year........ June ........July

2007........2.20  ........3.34

2008 .......2.00 .........2.89

2009 .......1.88 .........3.39

2010 .......2.65 .........2.50

2011........2.40 .........2.80

2012 .......2.92 .........2.95

 

07-09.....2.02 ..........3.21  =+59%

10-12.....2.66 ..........2.75 = +3%

 

So, what kind of drop might we see this month? Well, one thing to note, is the huge amount of peripheral ice we have left to melt away

 

Kara Sea............ 755k

Barents Sea....... 036k (791k)

Baffin Sea.......... 579k (1370k)

Hudson Bay........718k (2088k)

 

All that above ice has generally been reduced to close to nothing by the end of July over the last decade, so I think we could count, quite comfortably, on 1.6-1.7 million loss from those regions.

 

But then we also have the Candian Archipelago, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas which have another 4.3 million or so left, and generally start their melting properly in July.

 

 

So, with all that easy to melt ice still left, lots of low concentration ice in eastern central Arctic, plus the ice that generally starts melting in July already beginning to lower in concentration based on MODIS data, I'd say a likely range of melt in July from 2.6 million km2 (given cool condition remain across the Pacific side of the Arctic) to 3.6 million km2 (if conditions turn warm and the dipole sets up)

 

But a best estimate of 3.2 million.

 

All the data is from the NSIDC daily extent here and here, and the MASIE extent here

 

EDIT: Said "larger" instead of "lower" on the first line for some reason. Thanks be cause!

Great post so why are all these 'estimates' going awry ?

 

Last week you suggested a 1m melt within the week we have seen less then 500k.. STT's not having the effect as previously suggested.

 

Lets see where we end up, I'm sticking to 2.2m for the month

Edited July 1, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Great post so why are all these 'estimates' going awry ?

 

Last week you suggested a 1m melt within the week we have seen less then 500k.. STT's not having the effect as previously suggested.

 

Lets see where we end up, I'm sticking to 2.2m for the month

 

How could any of them have gone awry yet?

 

The week of losses I guessed ends tomorrow, but the last week has had a 911k drop, and a drop of 229k or more tomorrow will make my 1 million melt prediction true. (As always, my prediction was based on the NSIDC data, which goes back to 1979)

 

Anyway, where are you getting "less than 500k" over the last week? Should I start throwing out accusations of spin and bias, 'cause I don't see where you plucked that number from?

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC have made a correction to the June data, which meant an average of a 54k downward revision for each day of the month*. If nothing is posted up on their website or they don't send out an email about the change, I'll email them about the reason for the adjustment this month.

 

Anyway, the latest drop has been massive, 384,470km2, which makes a melt of 1,146,240km2 over the last week. We're now 605k off 2012, and 936k below the 79-11 average.

Edited July 2, 2013 by jethro

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC monthly review. Lots of interesting pieces in it this month...

 

A new normal for Arctic sea Ice

 

Arctic sea ice continues to track below average but remains well above the levels seen last year. The relatively slow ice loss is a reflection of the prevailing temperature and wind patterns. As of July 1, NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis and the Sea Ice Index have transitioned to a new 30-year baseline period, 1981 to 2010....

 

 

An Arctic pre-conditioned for rapid summer ice loss?

 

Through most of June, we did not see the precipitous decline in ice extent that was observed in June 2012 and 2007 (the years with the lowest and second lowest September ice extent in the satellite record). However, the rate of ice loss did increase in late June. Ice cover this spring was very thin in parts of the Arctic, suggesting that large areas may soon start melting out completely. Much depends on whether the atmospheric circulation pattern seen in June persists through July.

 

NASA Operation IceBridge data collected during March and April indicated thick ice along the Greenland coast (5 meters, or 16 feet or more), but thin ice north of Alaska in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, ranging from 1 to 1.5 meters (3 to 5 feet) in most areas and as low as 0.5 meters (approximately 2 feet) in others. These thin areas are quite likely refrozen leads, linked to the major fracturing events that occurred in the region during February and March. According to Andrew Shepherd at the University of Leeds, preliminary results from the European Space Agency CryoSat satellite suggest that the ice pack was 8% thinner in March 2013 compared to March 2012.

[knocker]

I see what you mean regarding extent  BFTV.

 

 

[knocker]

Don't know whether this is of any interest.

 

Nunavut-bound cargo, tanker vessels due to arrive at Iqaluit Coast Guard will lead Umiavut, Travestern vessels through Frobisher Bay pack ice

 

As sealift season gets underway in the eastern Arctic this week, the first ships were expected to arrive in Iqaluit Wednesday evening, July 3 at the earliest, Coast Guard officials said.

 

The cargo vessel Umiavut, operated by Nunavut Eastern Arctic Shipping, and the tanker Travestern, operated by the Woodward Group of Companies, will make their way up Frobisher Bay to Iqaluit with the help of Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Henry Larsen, said officials with the Canadian Coast Guard’s Arctic office in Iqaluit.

 

Ice in Frobisher Bay is frozen to a depth of more than 120 centimetres for a distance of about 30 miles out from Iqaluit, which is normal for this time of year, said Benoit Simard, ice service specialist with Environment Canada and the Coast Guard.

 

http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674nunavut-bound_cargo_tanker_vessels_due_to_arrive_at_iqaluit/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Edited July 3, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

A mixed day for the Arctic sea ice.

 

On the one hand, NSIDC extent remained almost static and the Cryosphere today drop was slightly below average.

On the other hand, the IJIS recorded a drop of 218.9k, which looks like the largest of the year so far.

 

 

I won't be doing a poll here for ARCUS sea ice outlook anymore, but if someone else would like to arrange it and send off the results, go ahead.

[knocker]

From Malte Humbert, founder and Executive Director of the Arctic Institute.

 

Melting off to slow start.Accelerating last few days.Low concentration around NP may foreshadow rapid decline.

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Knock's ! good to see you!

 

Yup , i'm quite concerned at the current 'state' of the pack? When you look over at the Kara sector you can see what becomes of the 'matrix' of slush Puppy once it sees open water ( it's gone!!! and instantly?) . We are now in the 'high Arctic' period of the melt season and PAC13 has left the ice up there in a pretty awful condition. The slightest move toward warmth and this 'slush Puppy' matrix is toast leaving just the well rounded floes? We saw similar post GAC12 on the Beaufort side last early Aug so we are no looking and wondering what will occur.

 

The bigger question is how do we 'remove' all ofthe ice that is destined to melt from the remainder and make sense of the result? So far we have had a slow season, melt wise, but an epic season for conditioning the pack for rapid melt out? In the past weather conditions , like we have had, merely allowed the pack to maintain? this time ( in the 'modern Arctic') the time has been spent on degrading the ice to the condition we find it today. Has it been a 'boon' or will we see the 'same old, same old' as soon as the heat takes hold?

 

A most interesting season though!

[knocker]

Hi Ian. Welcome back.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I got in contact with the NSIDC about the changes in June, and it now seems the changes have affected every June in their record.

I was informed that they updated their June ocean mask in order to improve the sea ice accuracy along the coastlines and to help deal with weather effects.

More information on their masks and other processing methods can be found here

 

 

Anywho, another big drop on IJIS of 150k, which takes us 229k below the 2000s average, and 515k off 2012.

[BornFromTheVoid]

9 days of melt in the Kara sea.

 

..................June 25th ............. ..................... ................. July 4th

[Gray-Wolf]

We're just waiting on Beaufort now then? The forecast looks as though the next two weeks might bring a similar change to ice levels there as you have shown us occur in Kara BFTV?

 

When I've watched the ice edge of the central region it appears that as soon as the 'Slush Puppy' matrix is faced with open water it rapidly vanishes leaving just the rounded floes to drift into open water?

 

Are we now about to see this shattered ice in the central region disappear quite fast over the next few weeks?

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS         -150k

CT         -194k

NSIDC   -226k

 

The NSIDC extent anomaly (based on the 79-11 mean) is now over 1 million km2 for the first time this year. We've now dropped 1.5 million in the last 10 days...

[barrel1234]

There doesnt seem to be much export out of Fram these days and ice in the Fram straight seems to be extremely low, maybe a little glimmer of good news for icephiles?