Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Gray-Wolf]

This is where we find out if reduced snow cover really does readily impact into the adjacent basin? Last Aug we saw massive thickness drops off Greenland's N. Coast through Aug (once the shore-fast ice had gone and the land had been baking for 6 weeks).

 

As I'd wondered (here) prior to the first 'central low', with ice readily shattering into small floes due to the impacts of the Feb Fracture event what will be the fate of the ice expelled into the shallow coastal regions? On the Siberian/European side we also have the river outflows from the warming land (only McKenzie on the Canadian side?) to eat into the ice. I think we also need remember the apparent NAD 'extension' into the basin during the latter part of the melt season?

 

Post 07' the 'hard to melt ice has been the central , older, pack. What occurs if this ice is mangled and has had a lot of dark water over max insolation?

 

I'd agree with BFTV,things do look 'interesting' for this time of year?

 

EDIT: Just been over Nevens and they too seem to question why this central cyclone is hanging around Chris Reynolds has said he'll E-Mail prof Francis to see if she can shed more light on whether such a stationary low is common over the Arctic spring/early summer. I'll pass on any info that comes from it

 

EDIT,EDIT; Hey BFTV, ( on your attached map) doesn't the low concentration ice just about pick out last years min ice cover with the higher concentration ice picking out where we had total melt out???

Edited June 8, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another big drop on Cryosphere today of 161k. The central Arctic contributing a large portion to the drop, but also a large loss in Hudson Bay. Still seems mostly like a lowering of concentration, and so I'd expect fairly modest drops in extent again later today.

 

GW, I really don't think this years low is anything special. Take a look at June 1994, a much stronger, larger and longer lasting low than this year.

 

 

EDIT: Actually, scrap the images. Here's an animation of them

 

Edited June 9, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I think you need to look at the low previous as it never really fizzled just prowled around the basin. as with the discussion over on nevens blog i'm 'witnessing it' as a low that formed in May and looks set to at least chew up the larger part of early June?

 

My ruminations settle around the lack of 'activity' around the northern hemisphere? things appear pretty slack around our hemisphere with no readily discernible patterns of savage lows running amok but the odd 'trough' and HP systems. as such nothing is throwing it's influence or steering currents over the Polar region and the general rotation is allowing it's influence (as with the Coriolis ) to settle the LP over the pole. Last nights ECMWF showed another 'nastier' side of such a low which is as the ice melts and the land around warms we get enhanced contrasts twixt ice and land allowing intensification of the low  (with open water allowing higher moisture content) and an edge toward a persistent GAC12 type cyclone. That would be the end of ice in the basin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think you need to look at the low previous as it never really fizzled just prowled around the basin. as with the discussion over on nevens blog i'm 'witnessing it' as a low that formed in May and looks set to at least chew up the larger part of early June?

 

My ruminations settle around the lack of 'activity' around the northern hemisphere? things appear pretty slack around our hemisphere with no readily discernible patterns of savage lows running amok but the odd 'trough' and HP systems. as such nothing is throwing it's influence or steering currents over the Polar region and the general rotation is allowing it's influence (as with the Coriolis ) to settle the LP over the pole. Last nights ECMWF showed another 'nastier' side of such a low which is as the ice melts and the land around warms we get enhanced contrasts twixt ice and land allowing intensification of the low  (with open water allowing higher moisture content) and an edge toward a persistent GAC12 type cyclone. That would be the end of ice in the basin.

 

Things are pretty slack around the hemisphere, but at this time of year it has little to do with the ice, and maybe a small influence from the snow. As it is, the heights have been lower, and temperatures colder across the Arctic over recent weeks, so it doesn't seem like Arctic Amplification is the cause.

 

The low has been swinging all over the Arctic, weakening and strengthening, as happens during a +ve AO phase. We can't go claiming that heigh rises and -ve AO/NAO and dipole patterns are due to feedbacks from the ice, and then go an claim that a +ve AO phase is also because of the ice without any physical basis to it.

 

Here's another gif from 1994, with other than a 2 day fade, essentially an at least 20 day low pressure system.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks BFTV!

 

Let's see how this now presents in a 'Modern Arctic'?

 

You can imagine the ice thickness/types across the basin back then and how such a pattern impacted upon the basin back then but , and this is most important, this is not 'Then'?

 

I think you would be the first to concede that things are very different across the basin today and , as such, such a persistent low is a 'new' feature to study ( in it's effects and behaviour?).

 

As you have conceded, in recent summers, Synoptics that used to nurture ice , and sea areas that used to grow ice, seem to have turned on their heads?

 

As many now await the first 'ice free' ( sub 1 million) year such a spectacle is worth witnessing (and studying) do you not think?

 

In your 'Career' you are placed perfectly to witness, assimilate and digest the new workings of the Basin and so I feel it prudent that you remain open to both 'past instances' of such occurrences but also how the 'New Arctic' deals with such today?

 

To me ( alone?) I cannot draw parallels with the basin's behaviour pre 07' when looking at present features without noting certain 'changes' in what we witness from certain synoptics?

Edited June 9, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

Let's see how this now presents in a 'Modern Arctic'?

 

 

There's that 'modern' word.  Let's not go down that route.  There is nowhere on this planet called 'Modern Arctic' and it tends to come round and bite people on the bum when misused.

 

Just thought I'd let you know.....

[Gray-Wolf]

Then how do you describe an Arctic bereft of paleocryistic ice P.P.? how do you describe an Arctric that is predominantly FY ice come spring P.P.? How do you describe an Arctic that shows 80% less volume than it did P.P.

 

My Bum is open for biting mate but hows about yours?

[Methuselah]

Then how do you describe an Arctic bereft of paleocryistic ice P.P.? how do you describe an Arctric that is predominantly FY ice come spring P.P.? How do you describe an Arctic that shows 80% less volume than it did P.P.

 

My Bum is open for biting mate but hows about yours?

Even I'm sceptical about some of these claims, Ian...Let's wait until August, eh?

[stewfox]

 

As many now await the first 'ice free' ( sub 1 million) year such a spectacle is worth witnessing (and studying) do you not think?

 

Ice free is ice free surely or is ice free now sub 1 million ??

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sorry Pete but i'm either not understanding what you are saying or you have not been watching the arctic since mid season 07' ( which i know you have!!!)

 

The Beaufort gyre used to do what ( exactly ) to ice? and what did we see it do to the last of the old paleocryistic in 2011?

 

Barentsz used to be a place where we found mountains of what in the 30's and 40's ? and what have we seen there the past 13yrs?

 

Baffin used to present quite an obstacle to shipping even in Aug, what are conditions like there now in Aug?(and pleeeeease don't say it's only June!!!)

 

The northern passage was not traversed by vessels for how many years? how many have done the route since 07'?

 

The NW passage used to , on average, take how long to complete? How many years has it recently been open?

 

Sailing around the pole has been done by 'light vessels' how many times pre-07'?

 

In it's 40yr history how many times has the Russian Arctic Lab ( on an ice floe) called for evacuation in May?

 

I know we all must question everything but once asked , and replied, how many times more must we tread that ground?

 

Stewfox. The currently accepted figure for a 'Seasonally ice free Arctic basin' is sub 1 Million kmsq , you got a problem? take it up with the profs.....

 

EDIT; BFTV I found this ( latest paper on Arctic cyclone and their workings?) ;

 

http://air.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp/~tanaka/papers/paper264.pdf

 

It would seem that they are rather more random in their behaviours than what we are seeing and that 94' (pre 07') may not prove a good analogy for what is 'normal' in cyclone behaviour in the basin???

 

EDIT: nice news article but the quote appears to fit here , presently , nicesly

 

Take, for example, Dr Nikki Williams, head of Australia's coal industry lobby, who said a few weeks ago: "I don't know about you but the last time I flew to Europe  – which was last week – it was pretty apparent that the Arctic was still there…"

 

Are you really counted among these folk?

Edited June 9, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

It's worth studying Ian.  I completely agree with that but let's stop turning things into a pantomime.  It may be a 'spectacle' but rather than looking forward to the party like has happened in the past, why not discuss it in a way to help people understand without people having to wade through the waffle?

 

It isn't a party and most of us would like to know what is happening without the 'sound bites'.  (quote quote quote quote)...............

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sorry P.P. but I am  more akin to the reporter on the Hindenburg incident than you would enjoy and I cannot alter that ( I'm sure you would not wish to change the world to all be 'You' now would you?).

 

This is , at the end of the day, all about 'The humanity' is it not? ( and all our fellow travelers on 'spaceship Earth?)

Edited June 9, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks BFTV!

 

Let's see how this now presents in a 'Modern Arctic'?

 

You can imagine the ice thickness/types across the basin back then and how such a pattern impacted upon the basin back then but , and this is most important, this is not 'Then'?

 

I think you would be the first to concede that things are very different across the basin today and , as such, such a persistent low is a 'new' feature to study ( in it's effects and behaviour?).

 

As you have conceded, in recent summers, Synoptics that used to nurture ice , and sea areas that used to grow ice, seem to have turned on their heads?

 

As many now await the first 'ice free' ( sub 1 million) year such a spectacle is worth witnessing (and studying) do you not think?

 

In your 'Career' you are placed perfectly to witness, assimilate and digest the new workings of the Basin and so I feel it prudent that you remain open to both 'past instances' of such occurrences but also how the 'New Arctic' deals with such today?

 

To me ( alone?) I cannot draw parallels with the basin's behaviour pre 07' when looking at present features without noting certain 'changes' in what we witness from certain synoptics?

 

I agree that the Arctic now is different to how it was 5, 10, 50 years ago and as such, weather conditions will have a different impact now. (I have no problem with the term "Modern Arctic")

In viewing how the low impacts the ice, in it's current form, this is interesting and novel. But I don't think the low itself is a manifestation of changes in the Arctic and is thus not unique or new (until proven otherwise, of course).

 

What we're seeing is a mainly +ve AO pattern, but coupled with a high amplitude jet stream which is still sending ridges north into the Arctic circle, giving a more neutral AO value overall.

 

 

EDIT; BFTV I found this ( latest paper on Arctic cyclone and their workings?) ;

 

http://air.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp/~tanaka/papers/paper264.pdf

 

It would seem that they are rather more random in their behaviours than what we are seeing and that 94' (pre 07') may not prove a good analogy for what is 'normal' in cyclone behaviour in the basin???

 

EDIT: nice news article but the quote appears to fit here , presently , nicesly

 

Take, for example, Dr Nikki Williams, head of Australia's coal industry lobby, who said a few weeks ago: "I don't know about you but the last time I flew to Europe  – which was last week – it was pretty apparent that the Arctic was still there…"

 

Are you really counted among these folk?

 

Interesting paper, though I think you're drawing conclusions from it that aren't there.

 

I'm not sure I appreciate, or clearly see the purpose of, your last question...?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry BFTV the last Edit was for P.P. and I should have made that more clear?

 

I'm sure I am skipping ahead of things in my looking at lows and how they will impact the Basin but , sadly, that's the kind of beastie I am and it gets me all manner of trouble!

[Red Raven]

Has this graphic been posted? It certainly shows the decline of ice very well.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/graph-of-the-day-arctic-sea-ice-death-spiral-continues-84739

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that R.R.!

 

Those of us dealing with the 'New Arctic' are fully aware of such but those of us who deny the changes to the basin are so fundamental as deserve a name reflecting the scale of the changes may not?

 

I would assert again that the 'changes' to the basin , over the past 15yrs, are so great as to have altered the way we once knew the basin to operate . I know the pedants will wish to seek clarification, once again, but it is easier for us all ,when looking at the 'changes' to the workings of the basin, if we separate how things 'used' to work to how they work today?

 

The current 'Low' is just such a case. when ice was thick, old and robust then such a low would help keep ice ( and add to it's thickness by snow fall???) but the 'New Arctic' has thin ,young, fragile ice that the low basically rips to bits and flings out into the fringes of the ocean? Snowfall is 'washed off' any flow small enough to be tossed around like a cork and the ravaged pack allows swells to develop that mix the ocean layers below. This is not what a solid, sealed ice pack acted like and until the noughties this is what we had? The worst such a low could offer was export from the basin via Fram, Nares and Bering.

 

Sadly to accept the term  'New Arctic' accepts 'change' in the working/state of the Basin and brings a person closer to accepting AGW's role in the 'changes' we are seeing?

 

If you deny man's role in climate change then you deny such 'name changes' lest it undermines your position?

Edited June 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

There are changes afoot but with such a complex system one cannot simply say that there is one outcome.. We dont know what will happen.. the ice is thin, maybe the low will help stack thin ice on top of each other to create thick areas which come the winter will strengthen? There is more snow at lower levels on the alps then i certainly recall seeing for a while what happens there? ice age? (who knows???) 

Edited June 11, 2013 by pottyprof

[Polar Maritime]

Is a Sleeping Climate Giant Stirring in the Arctic?

 

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-197

[Gray-Wolf]

For those who want to look at data near 'real time' then A4R has a nice site where he kindly puts the data over a global mask;

 

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2ch4aprjun/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

 

Things have looked 'anomalous' all winter and the arrival of the Antarctic input was also a shock for me (folk keep trying to tell me Antarctica is doing fine what with sea ice increases and all?)

[Gray-Wolf]

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=08&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=08&sy=2013

 

The above is a CT 'comparison' of last June 8th to this June 8th.

 

Whilst we might be feeling that this summers slow melt season bodes well one look at how the ice is doing under the PAC13 (Persistent Arctic Cyclone 13) will bring a sobering reminder of just how messed up the pack is becoming.

 

If last years 'average summer' (no 'perfect storm' as in 07' but a 'mixed bag' of conditions) was able to take that June 8th image and produce records across the board then what will an 'average summer' do to the ice in the condition this June 8th shows???

Edited June 11, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=08&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=08&sy=2013

 

The above is a CT 'comparison' of last June 8th to this June 8th.

 

Whilst we might be feeling that this summers slow melt season bodes well one look at how the ice is doing under the PAC13 (Persistent Arctic Cyclone 13) will bring a sobering reminder of just how messed up the pack is becoming.

 

If last years 'average summer' (no 'perfect storm' as in 07' but a 'mixed bag' of conditions) was able to take that June 8th image and produce records across the board then what will an 'average summer' do to the ice in the condition this June 8th shows???

Arctic sea ice one million km2 up on this time last year

[pottyprof]

The thing is though Keith, that line will more than likely take a nose dive shortly.  Impressive for now.....

[oldsnowywizard]

The thing is though Keith, that line will more than likely take a nose dive shortly.  Impressive for now.....

agreed but there is less dark water absorbing the suns heat which the longer this continues the better surely.. if the opposite leads to a death spiral and all.... besides with the pack so thin and fragile why has it not nose dived faster than last year already?

 

at least the low pressure system is keeping the ice from a Fram exit for the next week or so... seems to be moving all multi year ice over to the canadian side back to the nursery...

Edited June 12, 2013 by oldsnowywizard

[Gray-Wolf]

Can't agree with your confidence OSN.

 

Ice of 1m thickness allows a significant amount of energy into the water column below so that central area, normally holding the thickest of the ice all summer, is open to warming that it would not normally see? The u.s. navy model shows thinning, from kara to pole, hinting at open water by june's end?

 

The forecast strong dipole will also make for a busy Fram considering the ice condition behind the straights?

 

The canadian Archipelago is also now showing signs of break up so the LP heading that way is bound to show an effect there? It is also the time that Hudson now sheds it's ice?

 

The American weather service has also put out it's summer forecast an places Alaska, north slope, under anom. high temps all summer. This has implications for that side of the basin.

 

When prof Francis was approached (by Chris Reynolds) not only did she confirm how anomalous the May persistant cyclone was but also the state of the ice and upcoming weather promised us another 'interesting' season across the basin this year.

 

I changed my mind about a 'rebound year' last Nov. and Feb's fracture events only confirmed that to me. Seeing how the pack has reacted to PAC13 I am even more convinced that we will have another year comparable with 2012?

[carinthian]

Hi,

 Whilst many parts of Europe had a severe winter and wet spring 12/13, the Greenland Glaciers have experienced a snow drought during this period.  A further real worry as ice cover absorbs 3 times as much solar heat than snow cover.

C

Edited June 12, 2013 by carinthian