Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Geordiesnow]

This is kind of how I see the summer progressing with stubborn inner continental highs profiting from a failing polar Jet allowing high temp/low humidity conditions across major landmasses.

The WAA into the Arctic will hasten melt and allow home grown 'Arctic' high temps to evolve (another 'record breaking' year there). The fly in the ointment will be a cool(ish') spring/early summer for the folk recieving air from the Arctic on the left flanks of the HP but , as Arctic temps rise, this should fade as such areas will be inside the H.P. and grown there own heat?

 

The potential , from July onward, for high temp humidity contrast from remnant ice areas to warming 'ice free areas' (with WAA modification) could also promote the formation of strong polar lows (like GAC12) and it is this element (should it arise) that could lead to an ice free ocean late in Aug?

 

Theres not that much of an WAA heading into the Arctic Basin though really at the moment as far as far as I can see? I can see the high pressure cell with modest uppers within it but the only damage that will do is to the snow cover there? The basin looks like mainly escaping from these modest uppers in my eyes. 

 

The only area that is projected to receive the first warmth of the season is Hudson Bay and possibly Baffin if the set up allows that warm air to reach there. 

 

Not going to deny though that things are all rosy because they are not, I am worried about the state of the ice and I would not be surprised too see another record low June ice extent, I always think this time of year is important as the longer we keep those proper warm uppers out of the basin, the better it is for the ice. Sadly in recent years May has seen some unusually warm uppers heading into the basin much earlier than usual so be interesting what this year will show. 

[Gray-Wolf]

My biggest concern, over recent years, is what 'average Arctic weather does to the pack these days? We are bound to get another run of the "Look at the DMI 80N temps, pretty cold across the Arctic this year?" posts later in the season esp. when coastal temps begin to challenge/break records again (as they must as the 'average' temps were part of the time sequence when the coast was ice bound all summer).

 

I'm also very keen to see what impact , if any, the heavy fracturing has on the pack during the early part of the season? I think this 'fracture event' is part of the evolving winter ice pack so it's impacts on the following melt season may prove critical to the 'ice free' stage of arctic change? If the weakened pack does indeed melt out (in bulk) faster than previous years then this gives more time for the melt to focus on the 'rump' of the pack?

[BornFromTheVoid]

There's been a trend since 79 towards a lower monthly loss in Aprils. The 79-12 average daily drop for April is 39k/day, while the average of the last 5 years is 35k/day.

The highest average daily loss for April was in 1990 at 57.8k/day, with the lowest being 2009 at 22.8k/day.

 

So far this month, we're running at  31.6k/day, which is likely to increase towards months end.

 

[gagerg]

Is it me or does the thickest ice of the Ice Pack appear to be on its way out to the Fram Strait. I apologize if this is just my poor observation of the graph. 

 

[Harve]

Not sure, but that sure is a hypnotic animation.

[barrel1234]

From what I have seen through ice movements there has almost been a stretching of the ice in that area with some being carried through fram and some being taken in an easterly direction..... that's what I had thought to be happening however that animation looks like its slowly moving in the wrong direction

[stewfox]

I cant post links at present but has anyone read the article re 1964 ice levels gleamed from archieve films interesting read

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it me or does the thickest ice of the Ice Pack appear to be on its way out to the Fram Strait. I apologize if this is just my poor observation of the graph. 

 

 

What troubles me more than Frams cargo is that the bulk of the thicker ice seems destined to end up in waters that , for the past few years, has melted out such thicknesses over 'average summers'?

 

We were supposed to be seeing a 'runt pack' glued to the north shore of Greenland.Canadian Archipelago but if the present motion continues we will see a narrow strip in those areas. Last year Aug. appeared to gobble 3m of ice from along that narrow strip and this year it may have open water to the north and warmed bare rock to the south.

 

We will do a lot of nattering between now and late May but , thereafter, I imagine there will be only one topic of conversation (until the cyclones begin forming....I wonder what four will have to say about them this year??).

Edited April 26, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

For those who still can't see why the losses are important;

 

[quest4peace]

Will the brown area be this years september min i wonder?

Edited April 27, 2013 by quest4peace

[stewfox]

Wasn't sure if this has been posted yet, so many threads now. Interesting reading re conditions in September 1964

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22271972

[stewfox]

For those who still can't see why the losses are important;

 

 

I thought it would show the impact of such losses but its just a animated view of two blocks of ice or have I missed something ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday saw the biggest drop of the year so far with the NSIDC extent, down 153k.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought it would show the impact of such losses but its just a animated view of two blocks of ice or have I missed something ?

 

LOL! Yes it's just two blocks of ice.

 

Does it not speak to you about the enormous scale of the losses? if it were normal for ice to go up and down by these proportions then we might view it differently but seeing as the 1979 block is already 70% smaller than it would have been in the 50's (when ice levels were kinda 'normal' for our times) you can gauge just how much energy has been used up melting it all (energy now free to do other things) and why folk fear the rapid demise of such a tiny proportion of what summer ice used to be?

Edited April 27, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest pjl20101]

Was reading some posts made by quantum on TWO and it does appear like the ice melt won't be as great as it was like last year. Its a good thing as that may enhance not as much rain as last year for the summer months.

[Gray-Wolf]

Amazing? though Q' and I have decent natters over there I've not read/heard anything from him that would suggest as much?

 

C'mon pj' , spill the beans.

 

Where I left things we were all a little concerned that 'recovery' was not a flavour on the menu any more and 'similar' is as good as we can expect?

 

My concerns are that ice loss synoptics demand yet another high loss year (even without a further increase in FY ice's percentage of the pack or 'Crackopalypse' event)

 

I'm sorry pj' but saying something is so doesn't make it so?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Was reading some posts made by quantum on TWO and it does appear like the ice melt won't be as great as it was like last year. Its a good thing as that may enhance not as much rain as last year for the summer months.

 

I can see no reason whatsoever that could lead someone to think they could predict the melt season already. Could you maybe repost what Quantum said?

I've given up on TWO as I thought their climate area was a joke, more full of stupid smilies than actual content.

[Guest pjl20101]

I can do and maybe post the link bftv my friend. Its safe to say I won't be an active poster on here but I will post every now and again if you see what I mean.

Edit: Here we are folks with the link below.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst9377p19_Arctic-Sea-Ice-01-01-13-onwards.aspx

Edited April 28, 2013 by pjl20101

[Gael_Force]

I can see no reason whatsoever that could lead someone to think they could predict the melt season already. Could you maybe repost what Quantum said?

I've given up on TWO as I thought their climate area was a joke, more full of stupid smilies than actual content.

 

I agree. A quote from the Burns' poem 'To a Louse' always enters my head when I visit there.

 

O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie usTo see oursels as ithers see us!It wad frae mony a blunder free us

[Gray-Wolf]

Apologies pjl! , I even thanked him for the 'good news' (memory is the first thing to go you know?) but I don't think 10cm extra thickness will prove enough to increase ice levels come sept?

 

BFTV, i do think we can look at how the ice behaved over recent seasons, compare that with the ice we have now and 'average' synoptics to give us a 'ball park figure' for how the ice will be come seasons end? I know were not talking exact science here but it rules out moves in one direction for ice min?

 

I've said earlier in the thread the 'knee Jerk' reaction to last years record losses is to say 'slight recovery' this year (mainly on the back of what we saw in 07'?) but, after thinking on the ice we have today, pretty soon you find that 'recovery' is an increasingly hard direction to think in?

 

I know that the sceptic pedants would take a 10km increase over last years low as some sign of 'recovery around the corner' but we would see that as the vagaries of natural variation and of no significance (would we not?). We know the ice is in poor shape and has a larger share of FY ice than ever before. We can see where the 'best ice' is positioned and we know how each sea are has acted over the post 07' Arctic. Then we have the ongoing fracture event which has rendered some areas into very small floes after repeated fracture event. We can have a stab at the type of synoptics that will dominate the season by looking at the 'new normal' that post 07' basin has seen and see how that has encouraged melt over past years.

 

All in all I think you can make an informed 'guess' about what awaits us in Sept? Then again, in this 'the only way is down' world, another 'perfect storm' years with GAC12 like cyclones thrown in through August and we could be looking at 'ice free' by Sept?

 

I've given up on TWO as I thought their climate area was a joke, more full of stupid smilies than actual content.

 

That's a shame BFTV, the place needs the 'balance' that a poster like you can bring to the Fouresque dominated postings over there if only for the sake of the Lurkers?

[4wd]

You post about 20 times more than me, but mostly repetitive waffle obviously 

 

That's a shame BFTV, the place needs the 'balance' that a poster like you can bring to the Fouresque dominated postings over there if only for the sake of the Lurkers?

Edited April 28, 2013 by 4wd

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that we might now start to see the first of the accelerated losses that I think the fracture event will drive this early melt season? Some of the movement that drove the buckling of the pack also shunted ice into areas that have been ice free for nearly a decade prior to this drift? As such I would expect a rapid melt out of both the peripheral ice and these sections of 'interloper ice'?

 

The question has to be how will 'extent' reflect the early area losses? Will the 15% / 30% cutoff allow for a spiderweb pack that extent sees as 100% cover?

 

The other thing of note (to me at least) is the loss of the 'babies arm' from Beaufort into East Siberian sea this year? Does this mean the inner pack will not be protected from Pacific waters this season? I remember in 06' the flow rate into the basin was at record levels so maybe the thick multiyear ice feature limited the damage that this influx could do by presenting a 'dam' that had to be melted out first? We have seen it melt out the past few years but had it done it's job of damage limitation by that point?

 

All in all there seems to be a lot riding on this seasons losses?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html

 

Just took a look at modis and noticed the melt swirls through Barentsz and suspected that what I posted above was already occurring? The above C.T. plot show a total collapse back down to last years levels over a matter of days! We have to remember that this was part of the 'good ice' that had been helped by a cold Siberia before being shunted out over Barentsz.

 

The fact is a good swathe of the ice back into Kara looks very messy and I fear the first spring warmth will see it fail very quickly?

Edited April 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

It seems the 2013 melt season is beginning to get into it's stride.

 

Time.................... Avg 79-11...........2013

Last 2 Weeks...... 47.7k/day........ 53.3k/day

Last Week........... 58.7k/day........ 73.9k/day

 

I think the 1st of May marks the switch to the summer algorithm to deal with melt ponds, which generally results in an anomalous large extent drop on May 1st. This year the drop was 92k, the 79-11 average drop is 113k.

[stewfox]

It seems the 2013 melt season is beginning to get into it's stride.

 

Time.................... Avg 79-11...........2013

Last 2 Weeks...... 47.7k/day........ 53.3k/day

Last Week........... 58.7k/day........ 73.9k/day

 

I think the 1st of May marks the switch to the summer algorithm to deal with melt ponds, which generally results in an anomalous large extent drop on May 1st. This year the drop was 92k, the 79-11 average drop is 113k.

 

Surely 32k this year ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm