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North West Regional Discussion 29th March 2013 14:00hrs>


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HI all, quite new to all of this but followed the site for years. Im execting a few flurries out of all of this next week. To be honest i just like cold weather in general.I wouldnt rule out a dusting for some parts though,From what ive read in other parts of this site theres a few ramping this up and others being totally pessimistic.I see it as somewhere inm

between.Id be chuffed to see some wintry showers this time of the year

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  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    A Northerly is generally a dry direction in regard to showers for the North West of England. I am not expecting anything other than a few cold, crisp days with overnight frost.

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  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    If it snows very hard next week. I be listen to the Christmas music early and put Christmas decorations up. White Christmas here we come!! Posted Image

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Heres Chris Fawkes forecast for next week's cold plume: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24944891

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

    A Northerly is generally a dry direction in regard to showers for the North West of England. I am not expecting anything other than a few cold, crisp days with overnight frost.

    More likely to deliver snow for us than an easterly though?

     

    Having said that..at this time of year it would have to be one hell of cold spell to get snow to the west of the region, surely the sea temps modify things a lot! 

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    More likely to deliver snow for us than an easterly though?

     

    Having said that..at this time of year it would have to be one hell of cold spell to get snow to the west of the region, surely the sea temps modify things a lot! 

    Yes easterlys struggle over the pennines to produce much for the far west. I dont think we will get much with this northerly but i do imagine we will see some flurries...who knows, bit of excitement and about time too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Going purely off the GFS, this first cold incursion could be a less severe repeat of the 2009 and 2010 instances where winds were W'ly and blew showers from Merseyside right across N Cheshire, S Lancs and Greater Manchester. Monday night into Tuesday looks this way at present. Those with elevation (Marple, Saddleworth, Oldham, Glossop areas) could see a couple of centimetres or more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

    Posted Image

     

    Im sure you've all seen this chart thrown around in the model output discussion and I'm not going to suggest for a second that this will happen, 15 days out, one perturbation (be it the control run or not).

     

    However looking at it I feel i must ask would this chart actually result in a large amount of snow in the northwest. We know that north easterlies and easterlies generally don't deliver for us, but this would produce quite a strong front, so would it be enough to overcome the pennine problem?

     

    To me it looks like a fair bit would reach us as we have a low sat of the south west coast drawing in some warm(er) moist air to the flow. But just how bad would it be? (hypothetically, of course)

    Edited by kev19
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Posted Image

     

    Im sure you've all seen this chart thrown around in the model output discussion and I'm not going to suggest for a second that this will happen, 15 days out, one perturbation (be it the control run or not).

     

    However looking at it I feel i must ask would this chart actually result in a large amount of snow in the northwest. We know that north easterlies and easterlies generally don't deliver for us, but this would produce quite a strong front, so would it be enough to overcome the pennine problem?

     

    To me it looks like a fair bit would reach us as we have a low sat of the south west coast drawing in some warm(er) moist air to the flow. But just how bad would it be? (hypothetically, of course)

     

    As Crewe Cold just mentioned in the MOD Thread forget snow shovels you will need a JCB to dig yourself out

    What a chart though chance of happening HhhhMmmm about 5% 

     

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    More likely to deliver snow for us than an easterly though? Having said that..at this time of year it would have to be one hell of cold spell to get snow to the west of the region, surely the sea temps modify things a lot!

    Depends on where you live but I find for this area, we get generally more from an easterly than from a northerly.
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    Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.

    If it snows next week is James Madden' s forcast spot on !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Depends on where you live but I find for this area, we get generally more from an easterly than from a northerly.

     

    And not even up for debate for this area, don't forget (I know you wont but for benefit of others), the 17th Dec fall of 3 inches was only when wind swung around to WNWerly, even the NWerly didn't do it!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

    So there's snow forecast, just in time for me getting home from holiday on Monday.

    Currently beer o'clock here in Puerto Plata ( Dom Rep) and 31'c so even a dry sunny few days will be s shock to the system.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester

    need some westerly, north westerly component in any northerly to deliver anything wintry here.  Direct northerlies tend to affect coastal fringes leaving places inland & central area's just feeling the cold wind.  Still it's a start....

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

    Depends on where you live but I find for this area, we get generally more from an easterly than from a northerly.

    I'm sure people around Chester/Liverpool/W Cumbria wouldn't say that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I'm sure people around Chester/Liverpool/W Cumbria wouldn't say that.

     

    Don't you think Ian that a slight Westerly component even for these areas, particularly areas a bit inland is better than an absolute bang on straight Northerly?

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    Looks wintry overnight on Tuesday.

    Just wrote my forecasts for Metlink, Tuesday looks interesting with a trough feature embedded into the flow. Accumulations for lower ground? Most likely if nothing changes, but being 5 days out, it will.

     

    Wait and see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Mean while the first sleet symbol on BBC weather for my area and 3c showing for Tuesday, type in OL3.

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    So there's snow forecast, just in time for me getting home from holiday on Monday.Currently beer o'clock here in Puerto Plata ( Dom Rep) and 31'c so even a dry sunny few days will be s shock to the system.

    Hope your having a nice hol will be a shock to the system its coldddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd.
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    Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

    Don't you think Ian that a slight Westerly component even for these areas, particularly areas a bit inland is better than an absolute bang on straight Northerly?

     

    Only if its a real stonking cold spell with embedded cold, otherwise the westerly element tends to mix in warmer air on those western coasts (West Lancs as well as the areas mentioned)

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